Financial development, financial fragility and growth

This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility(namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.

The hotel industry and its importance in the technical and economic development of a region : the Lake Geneva case (1852-1914)

The historiography dedicated to tourism has emphasised how some socio-economic evolutions such as urbanisation, mechanisation of transport or the advent of leisure time in society have supported pleasure trips and therefore the development of the hotel industry. On the contrary, the research has too often neglected or at least minimised the impact of the hotel sector on a region's development. This contribution seeks to fill this gap by analysing the Geneva Lake region, one of the most important birthplaces of the European tourism. In this space not much touched by the first industrial revolution, the hotel business has in fact played the role of an economic motor, stimulating investment and employment. This dynamism provoked a domino effect on several other sectors of the economy (industry, bulding sector, banking). To please their customers, the hoteliers have not only given impulses on housing modernisation, but also to the revitalisation of transport, energy and communication networks. The necessity to remain on the state-of-the-art of technical issues, with the concern of competitiveness, has called forth an acceleration of the technology transfer and stimulated the constitution of technical know-how.

Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth

How do the liquidity functions of banks affect investment and growth at different stages ofeconomic development? How do financial fragility and the costs of banking crises evolve with the level of wealth of countries? We analyze these issues using an overlapping generations growth model where agents, who experience idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, can invest in a liquid storage technology or in a partially illiquid Cobb Douglas technology. By pooling liquidity risk, banks play a growth enhancing role in reducing inefficient liquidation of long term projects, but they may face liquidity crises associated with severe output losses. We show that middle income economies may find optimal to be exposed to liquidity crises, while poor and rich economies have more incentives to develop a fully covered banking system. Therefore, middle income economies could experience banking crises in the process of their development and, as they get richer, they eventually converge to a financially safe long run steady state. Finally, the model replicates the empirical fact of higher costs of banking crises for middle income economies.

Probabilistic maximal covering location-allocation models with constrained waiting time or queue length for congested systems

When dealing with the design of service networks, such as healthand EMS services, banking or distributed ticket selling services, thelocation of service centers has a strong influence on the congestion ateach of them, and consequently, on the quality of service. In this paper,several models are presented to consider service congestion. The firstmodel addresses the issue of the location of the least number of single--servercenters such that all the population is served within a standard distance,and nobody stands in line for a time longer than a given time--limit, or withmore than a predetermined number of other clients. We then formulateseveral maximal coverage models, with one or more servers per service center.A new heuristic is developed to solve the models and tested in a 30--nodesnetwork.

Corporate finance and the monetary transmission mechanism

This paper analyzes the transmission mechanisms of monetarypolicy in a general equilibrium model of securities marketsand banking with asymmetric information. Banks' optimal asset/liability policy is such that in equilibrium capital adequacy constraints are always binding. Asymmetric information about banks' net worth adds a cost to outside equity capital, which limits the extent to which banks can relax their capital constraint. In this context monetarypolicy does not affect bank lending through changes in bank liquidity. Rather, it has the effect of changing theaggregate composition of financing by firms. The model also produces multiple equilibria, one of which displays all the features of a "credit crunch". Thus, monetary policy can also have large effects when it induces a shift from one equilibrium to the other.

Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation

Understanding the mechanism through which financial globalization affect economic performance is crucial for evaluating the costs and benefits of opening financial markets. This paper is a first attempt at disentangling the effects of financial integration on the two main determinants of economic performance: productivity (TFP)and investments. I provide empirical evidence from a sample of 93 countries observed between 1975 and 1999. The results suggest that financial integration has a positive direct effect on productivity, while it spurs capital accumulation only with some delay and indirectly, since capital follows the rise in productivity. I control for indirect effects of financial globalization through banking crises. Such episodes depress both investments and TFP, though they are triggered by financial integration only to a minor extent. The paper also provides a discussion of a simple model on the effects of financial integration, and shows additional empirical evidence supporting it.

Long term debt with hidden borrowing

We consider borrowers with the opportunity to raise funds from a competitive baking sector,that shares information about borrowers, and an alternative hidden lender. We highlight thatthe presence of the hidden lender restricts the contracts that can be obtained from the banking sector and that in equilibrium some borrowers obtain funds from both the banking sector and the (inefficient) hidden lender simultaneously. We further show that as the inefficiency of the hidden lender increases, total welfare decreases. By extending the model to examine a partially hidden lender, we further highlight the key role of information.

Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank

We model systemic risk in an interbank market. Banks face liquidityneeds as consumers are uncertain about where they need to consume. Interbank credit lines allow to cope with these liquidity shocks while reducing the cost of maintaining reserves. However, the interbank market exposes the system to a coordination failure(gridlock equilibrium) even if all banks are solvent. When one bankis insolvent, the stability of the banking system is affected in various ways depending on the patterns of payments across locations. We investigate the ability of the banking industry to withstand the insolvency of one bank and whether the closure ofone bank generates a chain reaction on the rest of the system. Weanalyze the coordinating role of the Central Bank in preventing payments systemic repercussions and we examine the justification ofthe Too-big-to-fail-policy.

Interest rate restrictions in a natural experiment: loan allocation and the change in the usury laws in 1714

This article studies the effects of interest rate restrictions on loan allocation. The British governmenttightened the usury laws in 1714, reducing the maximum permissible interest rate from 6% to5%. A sample of individual loan transactions reveals that average loan size and minimum loan sizeincreased strongly, while access to credit worsened for those with little social capital. Collateralisedcredits, which had accounted for a declining share of total lending, returned to their former role ofprominence. Our results suggest that the usury laws distorted credit markets significantly; we findno evidence that they offered a form of Pareto-improving social insurance.

National Adaptation Programme of Action on Climate Change - 2008 - 2012

The archipelago of Cape Verde is made up of ten islands and nine islets and is located between latitudes 14º 28' N and 17º 12' N and longitudes 22º 40' W and 25º 22' W. It is located approximately 500 km from the Senegal coast in West Africa (Figure 1). The islands are divided into two groups: Windward and Leeward. The Windward group is composed of the islands of Santo Antão, São Vicente, Santa Luzia, São Nicolau, Sal and Boavista; and the Leeward group is composed of the islands Maio, Santiago, Fogo and Brava. The archipelago has a total land surface of 4,033 km2 and an Economic Exclusive Zone (ZEE) that extends for approximately 734,000 km2. In general, the relief is very steep, culminating with high elevations (e.g. 2,829 m on Fogo and 1,979 m on Santo Antão). The surface area, geophysical configuration and geology vary greatly from one island to the next. Cape Verde, due to its geomorphology, has a dense and complex hydrographical network. However, there are no permanent water courses and temporary water courses run only during the rainy season. These temporary water courses drain quickly towards the main watersheds, where, unless captured by artificial means, continue rapidly to lower areas and to the sea. This applies equally to the flatter islands. The largest watershed is Rabil with an area of 199.2 km2. The watershed areas on other islands extend over less than 70 km2. Cape Verde is both a least developed country (LDC) and a small island development state (SIDS). In 2002, the population of Cape Verde was estimated at approximately 451,000, of whom 52% were women and 48% men. The population was growing at an average 2.4% per year, and the urban population was estimated at 53.7 %. Over the past 15 years, the Government has implemented a successful development strategy, leading to a sustained economic growth anchored on development of the private sector and the integration of Cape Verde into the world economy. During this period, the tertiary sector has become increasingly important, with strong growth in the tourism, transport, banking and trade sectors. Overall, the quality of life indicators show substantial improvements in almost all areas: housing conditions, access to drinking water and sanitation, use of modern energy in both lighting and cooking, access to health services and education. Despite these overall socio-economic successes, the primary sector has witnessed limited progress. Weak performance in the primary sector has had a severe negative impact on the incomes and poverty risks faced by rural workers1. Moreover, relative poverty has increased significantly during the past decade. The poverty profile shows that: (i) extreme poverty is mostly found in rural areas, although it has also increased in urban areas; (ii) poverty is more likely to occur when the head of the household is a woman; (iii) poverty increases with family size; (iv) education significantly affects poverty; (v) the predominantly agricultural islands of Santo Antão and Fogo have the highest poverty rates; (vi) unemployment affects the poor more than the nonpoor; (vii) agriculture and fisheries workers are more likely to be poor than those in other sectors. Therefore, the fight against poverty and income inequalities remains one of the greatest challenges for Cape Verde authorities. The various governments of Cape Verde over the last decade have demonstrated a commitment to improving governance, notably by encouraging a democratic culture that guarantees stability and democratic changes without conflicts. This democratic governance offers a space for a wider participation of citizens in public management and consolidates social cohesion. However, there are some remaining challenges related to democratic governance and the gains must be systematically monitored. Finally, it is worth emphasizing that the country’s insularity has stimulated a movement to decentralized governance, although social inequalities and contrasts from one island to the next constitute, at the same time, challenges and opportunities.

Post crisis challenges to bank regulation

The current crisis has swept aside not only the whole of the US investment banking industry butalso the consensual perception of banking risks, contagion and their implication for bankingregulation. As everyone agrees now, risks where mispriced, they accumulated in neuralgic pointsof the financial system, and where amplified by procyclical regulation as well as by the instabilityand fragility of financial institutions.The use of ratings as carved in stone and lack of adequate procedure to swiftly deal withsystemic institutions bankruptcy (whether too-big-to-fail, too complex to fail or too-many to fail).The current paper will not deal with the description and analysis of the crisis, already covered inother contributions to this issue will address the critical choice regulatory authorities will face. Inthe future regulation has to change, but it is not clear that it will change in the right direction. Thismay occur if regulatory authorities, possibly influenced by public opinion and political pressure,adopt an incorrect view of financial crisis prevention and management. Indeed, there are twoapproaches to post-crisis regulation. One is the rare event approach, whereby financial crises willoccur infrequently, but are inescapable.

Relationship and transaction lending in a crisis

We study how relationship lending and transaction lending varyover the business cycle. We develop a model in which relationshipbanks gather information on their borrowers, which allows them toprovide loans for profitable firms during a crisis. Due to the servicesthey provide, operating costs of relationship-banks are higher thanthose of transaction-banks. In our model, where relationship-bankscompete with transaction-banks, a key result is that relationship-banks charge a higher intermediation spread in normal times, butoffer continuation-lending at more favorable terms than transactionbanks to profitable firms in a crisis. Using detailed credit registerinformation for Italian banks before and after the Lehman Brothers'default, we are able to study how relationship and transaction-banksresponded to the crisis and we test existing theories of relationshipbanking. Our empirical analysis confirms the basic prediction of themodel that relationship banks charged a higher spread before the crisis, offered more favorable continuation-lending terms in response tothe crisis, and suffered fewer defaults, thus confirming the informational advantage of relationship banking.

Whole-cell bioprocessing of human fetal cells for tissue engineering of skin.

Current restrictions for human cell-based therapies have been related to technological limitations with regards to cellular proliferation capacity (simple culture conditions), maintenance of differentiated phenotype for primary human cell culture and transmission of communicable diseases. Cultured primary fetal cells from one organ donation could possibly meet the exigent and stringent technical aspects for development of therapeutic products. Master and working cell banks from one fetal organ donation (skin) can be developed in short periods of time and safety tests can be performed at all stages of cell banking. For therapeutic use, fetal cells can be used up to two thirds of their life-span in an out-scaling process and consistency for several biological properties includes protein concentration, gene expression and biological activity. As it is the intention that banked primary fetal cells can profit from the prospected treatment of hundreds of thousands of patients with only one organ donation, it is imperative to show consistency, tracability and safety of the process including donor tissue selection, cell banking, cell testing and growth of cells in out-scaling for the preparation of whole-cell tissue-engineering products.

An investment social network beside the Banco de Barcelona, an unusual case?

[cat] L’extensió de les activitats bancàries al segle XIX va ser liderat per alguns grups socials connectats amb el comerç, que van treure profit de la seva experiència i coneixement per estendre la seva influència al voltant del món del crèdit. A la historiografia espanyola, hi ha un conjunt de treballs que s’han centrat en aquesta gent, però en molts pocs casos s’ha fet una classificació que permeti detectar el conjunt de grups econòmics que han liderat el procés de modernització financera de l’Espanya de mitjans del segle XIX. El principal objectiu del treball és l’anàlisi dels grups socials que van formar el Banco de Barcelona entre 1844 i 1854. Aquesta institució va ser important per a la història financera i bancària d’Espanya per ser pionera en la seva activitat creditícia i d’emissió: a més, la seva experiència va servir com a base en la constitució d’un sistema financer modern a Espanya. En una societat com la catalana de mitjans del segle XIX, la confiança era un factor important per explicar la decisió d’invertir. L’aparició de noves companyies i les seves necessitats d’inversió van transformar el comportaments previs. Quin va ser el comportament dels inversors potencials? Va ser el grup que hi havia al voltant del banc el que va ascendir econòmicament en els anys centrals del segle XIX? La resposta és prou clara, els membres del consell d’administració del Banc de Barcelona formaven un grup apart dins dels grups que sorgeixen a l’economia catalana en el seu conjunt.

Cotton manufacturers as bankers: the textile trade and credit in spain, 1840-1913

[cat] La historiografia ha assenyalat que en el segle XIX el crèdit que els fabricants cotoners catalans oferien als seus clients era de caràcter informal i, per tant, impossible de ser transferit al sistema bancari. Això hauria tingut un efecte negatiu en la rendibilitat de les empreses cotoneres. A partir de l’anàlisi de diversos arxius empresarials, així com de fonts judicials i notarials, aquest treball confirma aquesta descripció dels fets però proposa una interpretació més optimista. Els fabricants feien de banquers dels seus clients perquè eren els millor situats per a exercir aquesta funció. Havien construït una bona estructura d’informació, gestionaven eficientment el risc creditici i obtenien beneficis d’aquesta activitat.