Toward a new generation of world climate research and computing facilities

The impending threat of global climate change and its regional manifestations is among the most important and urgent problems facing humanity. Society needs accurate and reliable estimates of changes in the probability of regional weather variations to develop science-based adaptation and mitigation strategies. Recent advances in weather prediction and in our understanding and ability to model the climate system suggest that it is both necessary and possible to revolutionize climate prediction to meet these societal needs. However, the scientific workforce and the computational capability required to bring about such a revolution is not available in any single nation. Motivated by the success of internationally funded infrastructure in other areas of science, this paper argues that, because of the complexity of the climate system, and because the regional manifestations of climate change are mainly through changes in the statistics of regional weather variations, the scientific and computational requirements to predict its behavior reliably are so enormous that the nations of the world should create a small number of multinational high-performance computing facilities dedicated to the grand challenges of developing the capabilities to predict climate variability and change on both global and regional scales over the coming decades. Such facilities will play a key role in the development of next-generation climate models, build global capacity in climate research, nurture a highly trained workforce, and engage the global user community, policy-makers, and stakeholders. We recommend the creation of a small number of multinational facilities with computer capability at each facility of about 20 peta-flops in the near term, about 200 petaflops within five years, and 1 exaflop by the end of the next decade. Each facility should have sufficient scientific workforce to develop and maintain the software and data analysis infrastructure. Such facilities will enable questions of what resolution, both horizontal and vertical, in atmospheric and ocean models, is necessary for more confident predictions at the regional and local level. Current limitations in computing power have placed severe limitations on such an investigation, which is now badly needed. These facilities will also provide the world's scientists with the computational laboratories for fundamental research on weather–climate interactions using 1-km resolution models and on atmospheric, terrestrial, cryospheric, and oceanic processes at even finer scales. Each facility should have enabling infrastructure including hardware, software, and data analysis support, and scientific capacity to interact with the national centers and other visitors. This will accelerate our understanding of how the climate system works and how to model it. It will ultimately enable the climate community to provide society with climate predictions, which are based on our best knowledge of science and the most advanced technology.

Emergence of a small-world functional network in cultured neurons

The functional networks of cultured neurons exhibit complex network properties similar to those found in vivo. Starting from random seeding, cultures undergo significant reorganization during the initial period in vitro, yet despite providing an ideal platform for observing developmental changes in neuronal connectivity, little is known about how a complex functional network evolves from isolated neurons. In the present study, evolution of functional connectivity was estimated from correlations of spontaneous activity. Network properties were quantified using complex measures from graph theory and used to compare cultures at different stages of development during the first 5 weeks in vitro. Networks obtained from young cultures (14 days in vitro) exhibited a random topology, which evolved to a small-world topology during maturation. The topology change was accompanied by an increased presence of highly connected areas (hubs) and network efficiency increased with age. The small-world topology balances integration of network areas with segregation of specialized processing units. The emergence of such network structure in cultured neurons, despite a lack of external input, points to complex intrinsic biological mechanisms. Moreover, the functional network of cultures at mature ages is efficient and highly suited to complex processing tasks.

The world at one's fingertips: interactive interpretation of environmental data

This chapter introduces the latest practices and technologies in the interactive interpretation of environmental data. With environmental data becoming ever larger, more diverse and more complex, there is a need for a new generation of tools that provides new capabilities over and above those of the standard workhorses of science. These new tools aid the scientist in discovering interesting new features (and also problems) in large datasets by allowing the data to be explored interactively using simple, intuitive graphical tools. In this way, new discoveries are made that are commonly missed by automated batch data processing. This chapter discusses the characteristics of environmental science data, common current practice in data analysis and the supporting tools and infrastructure. New approaches are introduced and illustrated from the points of view of both the end user and the underlying technology. We conclude by speculating as to future developments in the field and what must be achieved to fulfil this vision.

Potential of legume-based grassland-livestock systems in Europe

European grassland-based livestock production systems are challenged to produce more milk and meat to meet increasing world demand and to achieve this by using fewer resources. Legumes offer great potential for coping with such requests. They have numerous features that can act together at different stages in the soil-plant-animal-atmosphere system and these are most effective in mixed swards with a legume abundance of 30-50%. The resulting benefits are a reduced dependency on fossil energy and industrial N fertilizer, lower quantities of harmful emissions to the environment (greenhouse gases and nitrate), lower production costs, higher productivity and increased protein self-sufficiency. Some legume species offer opportunities for improving animal health with less medication due to bioactive secondary metabolites. In addition, legumes may offer an option for adapting to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations and to climate change. Legumes generate these benefits at the level of the managed land area unit and also at the level of the final product unit. However, legumes suffer from some limitations, and suggestions are made for future research in order to exploit more fully the opportunities that legumes can offer. In conclusion, the development of legume-based grassland-livestock systems undoubtedly constitutes one of the pillars for more sustainable and competitive ruminant production systems, and it can only be expected that legumes will become more important in the future.

Role of common mental and physical disorders in partial disability around the world

Background Mental and physical disorders are associated with total disability, but their effects on days with partial disability (i.e. the ability to perform some, but not full-role, functioning in daily life) are not well understood. Aims To estimate individual (i.e. the consequences for an individual with a disorder) and societal effects (i.e. the avoidable partial disability in the society due to disorders) of mental and physical disorders on days with partial disability around the world. Method Respondents from 26 nationally representative samples (n=61 259, age 18+) were interviewed regarding mental and physical disorders, and day-to-day functioning. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview, version 3.0 (CIDI 3.0) was used to assess mental disorders; partial disability (expressed in full day equivalents) was assessed with the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule in the CIDI 3.0. Results Respondents with disorders reported about 1.58 additional disability days per month compared with respondents without disorders. At the individual level, mental disorders (especially post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and bipolar disorder) yielded a higher number of days with disability than physical disorders. At the societal level, the population attributable risk proportion due to physical and mental disorders was 49% and 15% respectively. Conclusions Mental and physical disorders have a considerable impact on partial disability, at both the individual and at the societal level. Physical disorders yielded higher effects on partial disability than mental disorders.

IS A VISIBLE (HYPOECHOIC) LESION AT BIOPSY AN INDEPENDENT PREDICTOR OF PROSTATE CANCER OUTCOME?

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic implications of the sonographic appearance of prostate cancers. All patients with biopsy-proven prostate cancer between January 2003 and July 2004 (and at least 5 years of follow-up) were selected retrospectively. After exclusions, 101 patients constituted our study population and were divided into isoechoic (or nonvisible) and hypoechoic (or visible) lesion. The clinical outcomes of these two groups were compared. The outcomes for the two groups were significantly different (p < 0.01). For nonvisible lesions, 37 of the 41 patients (90.2%) had no disease relapse and 2 (4.9%) had biochemical failure. For the visible lesions, 37 of the 60 (61.6%) patients were free of recurrence, 7 (11.7%) had systemic metastases and 10 (16.7%) died of complications related to prostate cancer. Our data show that patients with nonvisible prostate cancer had significantly better outcomes than patients with visible lesions during a five-year period of evaluation. (E-mail: fmuglia@fmrp.usp.br) (c) 2012 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology.

The Politics of the "New North": Putting History and Geography at Stake in Arctic Futures

References to a “New North” have snowballed across popular media in the past 10 years. By invoking the phrase, scientists, policy analysts, journalists and others draw attention to the collision of global warming and global investment in the Arctic today and project a variety of futures for the region and the planet. While changes are apparent, the trope of a “New North” is not new. Discourses that appraised unfamiliar situations at the top of the world have recurred throughout the twentieth century. They have also accompanied attempts to cajole, conquer, civilize, consume, conserve and capitalize upon the far north. This article examines these politics of the “New North” by critically reading “New North” texts from the North American Arctic between 1910 and 2010. In each case, appeals to novelty drew from evaluations of the historical record and assessments of the Arctic’s shifting position in global affairs. “New North” authors pinpointed the ways science, state power, capital and technology transformed northern landscapes at different moments in time. They also licensed political and corporate influence in the region by delimiting the colonial legacies already apparent there. Given these tendencies, scholars need to approach the most recent iteration of the “New North” carefully without concealing or repeating the most troubling aspects of the Arctic’s past.

Preparing Offspring for a Dangerous World: Potential Costs of Being Wrong

Adaptive maternal responses to stressful environments before young are born can follow two non-exclusive pathways: either the mother reduces current investment in favor of future investment, or influences offspring growth and development in order to fit offspring phenotype to the stressful environment. Inducing such developmental cues, however, may be risky if the environment changes meanwhile, resulting in maladapted offspring. Here we test the effects of a predator-induced maternal effect in a predator-free postnatal environment. We manipulated perceived predation-risk for breeding female great tits by exposing them to stuffed models of either a predatory bird or a non-predatory control. Offspring were raised either in an environment matching the maternal one by exchanging whole broods within a maternal treatment group, or in a mismatching environment by exchanging broods among the maternal treatments. Offspring growth depended on the matching of the two environments. While for offspring originating from control treated mothers environmental mismatch did not significantly change growth, offspring of mothers under increased perceived predation risk grew faster and larger in matching conditions. Offspring of predator treated mothers fledged about one day later when growing under mismatching conditions. This suggests costs paid by the offspring if mothers predict environmental conditions wrongly.

Improving sixth grade student knowledge of ecology using fish rearing and release as a real-world context

This research project measured the effects of real-world content in a science classroom by determining change (deep knowledge of life science content, including ecosystems from MDE – Grade Level Content Expectations) in a subset of students (6th Grade Science) that may result from the addition of curriculum (real-world content of rearing trout in the classroom). Data showed large gains from the pre-test to post-test in students from both the experimental and control groups. The ecology unit with the implementation of real-world content [trout] was even more successful, and improved students’ deep knowledge of ecosystem content from Michigan’s Department of Education Grade Level Content Expectations. The gains by the experimental group on the constructed response section of the test, which included higher cognitive level items, were significant. Clinical interviews after the post-test confirmed increases in deep knowledge of ecosystem concepts in the experimental group, by revealing that a sample of experimental group students had a better grasp of important ecology concepts as compared to a sample of control group students.

Looking at the effectiveness of an earth science unit designed using the Understanding by Design process

This report shares my efforts in developing a solid unit of instruction that has a clear focus on student outcomes. I have been a teacher for 20 years and have been writing and revising curricula for much of that time. However, most has been developed without the benefit of current research on how students learn and did not focus on what and how students are learning. My journey as a teacher has involved a lot of trial and error. My traditional method of teaching is to look at the benchmarks (now content expectations) to see what needs to be covered. My unit consists of having students read the appropriate sections in the textbook, complete work sheets, watch a video, and take some notes. I try to include at least one hands-on activity, one or more quizzes, and the traditional end-of-unit test consisting mostly of multiple choice questions I find in the textbook. I try to be engaging, make the lessons fun, and hope that at the end of the unit my students get whatever concepts I‘ve presented so that we can move on to the next topic. I want to increase students‘ understanding of science concepts and their ability to connect understanding to the real-world. However, sometimes I feel that my lessons are missing something. For a long time I have wanted to develop a unit of instruction that I know is an effective tool for the teaching and learning of science. In this report, I describe my efforts to reform my curricula using the “Understanding by Design” process. I want to see if this style of curriculum design will help me be a more effective teacher and if it will lead to an increase in student learning. My hypothesis is that this new (for me) approach to teaching will lead to increased understanding of science concepts among students because it is based on purposefully thinking about learning targets based on “big ideas” in science. For my reformed curricula I incorporate lessons from several outstanding programs I‘ve been involved with including EpiCenter (Purdue University), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), the Master of Science Program in Applied Science Education at Michigan Technological University, and the Michigan Association for Computer Users in Learning (MACUL). In this report, I present the methodology on how I developed a new unit of instruction based on the Understanding by Design process. I present several lessons and learning plans I‘ve developed for the unit that follow the 5E Learning Cycle as appendices at the end of this report. I also include the results of pilot testing of one of lessons. Although the lesson I pilot-tested was not as successful in increasing student learning outcomes as I had anticipated, the development process I followed was helpful in that it required me to focus on important concepts. Conducting the pilot test was also helpful to me because it led me to identify ways in which I could improve upon the lesson in the future.