Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

Fitness to drive and cannabis: Validation of two blood THCCOOH thresholds to distinguish occasional users from heavy smokers.

Many studies based on either an experimental or an epidemiological approach, have shown that the ability to drive is impaired when the driver is under the influence of cannabis. Baseline performances of heavy users remain impaired even after several weeks of abstinence. Symptoms of cannabis abuse and dependence are generally considered incompatible with safe driving. Recently, it has been shown that traffic safety can be increased by reporting the long-term unfit drivers to the driver licensing authorities and referring the cases for further medical assessment. Evaluation of the frequency of cannabis use is a prerequisite for a reliable medical assessment of the fitness to drive. In a previous paper we advocated the use of two thresholds based on 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH) concentration in whole blood to help to distinguish occasional cannabis users (≤3μg/L) from heavy regular smokers (≥40μg/L). These criteria were established on the basis of results obtained in a controlled cannabis smoking study with placebo, carried out with two groups of young male volunteers; the first group was characterized by a heavy use (≥10 joints/month) while the second group was made up of occasional users smoking at most 1 joint/week. However, to date, these cutoffs have not been adequately assessed under real conditions. Their validity can now be evaluated and confirmed with 146 traffic offenders' real cases in which the whole blood cannabinoid concentrations and the frequency of cannabis use are known. The two thresholds were not challenged by the presence of ethanol (40% of cases) and of other therapeutic and illegal drugs (24%). Thus, we propose the following procedure that can be very useful in the Swiss context but also in other countries with similar traffic policies: if the whole blood THCCOOH concentration is higher than 40μg/L, traffic offenders must be directed first and foremost toward medical assessment of their fitness to drive. This evaluation is not recommended if the THCCOOH concentration is lower than 3μg/L and if the self-rated frequency of cannabis use is less than 1 time/week. A THCCOOH level between these two thresholds cannot be reliably interpreted. In such a case, further medical assessment and follow-up of the fitness to drive are also suggested, but with lower priority.

Évaluation d'une structure gériatrique entre l'ambulatoire et l'hospitalier [Geriatric institutions, between ambulatory and hospital care: patients' description and performance assessment].

Introduction : Décrire les patients d'une structure gériatrique offrant des hospitalisations de courte durée, dans un contexte ambulatoire, pour des situations gériatriques courantes dans le canton de Genève (Suisse). Mesurer les performances de cette structure en termes de qualité des soins et de coûts. Méthodes : Des données relatives au profil des 100 premiers patients ont été collectées (huit mois), ainsi qu'aux prestations, aux ressources et aux effets (réadmissions, décès, satisfaction, complications) de manière à mesurer différents indicateurs de qualité et de coûts. Les valeurs observées ont été systématiquement comparées aux valeurs attendues, calculées à partir du profil des patients. Résultats : Des critères d'admission ont été fixés pour exclure les situations dans lesquelles d'autres structures offrent des soins mieux adaptés. La spécificité de cette structure intermédiaire a été d'assurer une continuité des soins et d'organiser d'emblée le retour à domicile par des prestations de liaison ambulatoire. La faible occurrence des réadmissions potentiellement évitables, une bonne satisfaction des patients, l'absence de décès prématurés et le faible nombre de complications suggèrent que les soins médicaux et infirmiers ont été délivrés avec une bonne qualité. Le coût s'est révélé nettement plus économique que des séjours hospitaliers après ajustement pour la lourdeur des cas. Conclusion : L'expérience-pilote a démontré la faisabilité et l'utilité d'une unité d'hébergement et d'hospitalisation de court séjour en toute sécurité. Le suivi du patient par le médecin traitant assure une continuité des soins et évite la perte d'information lors des transitions ainsi que les examens non pertinents. INTRODUCTION: To describe patients admitted to a geriatric institution, providing short-term hospitalizations in the context of ambulatory care in the canton of Geneva. To measure the performances of this structure in terms of quality ofcare and costs. METHOD: Data related to the clinical,functioning and participation profiles of the first 100 patients were collected. Data related to effects (readmission, deaths, satisfaction, complications), services and resources were also documented over an 8-month period to measure various quality and costindicators. Observed values were systematically compared to expected values, adjusted for case mix. RESULTS: Explicit criteria were proposed to focus on the suitable patients, excluding situations in which other structures were considered to be more appropriate. The specificity of this intermediate structure was to immediately organize, upon discharge, outpatient services at home. The low rate of potentially avoidable readmissions, the high patient satisfaction scores, the absence of premature death and the low number of iatrogenic complications suggest that medical and nursing care delivered reflect a good quality of services. The cost was significantly lower than expected, after adjusting for case mix. CONCLUSION: The pilot experience showed that a short-stay hospitalization unit was feasible with acceptable security conditions. The attending physician's knowledge of the patients allowed this system tofocus on essential issues without proposing inappropriate services.

Detecting patterns of species diversification in the presence of both rate shifts and mass extinctions.

BACKGROUND: Recent methodological advances allow better examination of speciation and extinction processes and patterns. A major open question is the origin of large discrepancies in species number between groups of the same age. Existing frameworks to model this diversity either focus on changes between lineages, neglecting global effects such as mass extinctions, or focus on changes over time which would affect all lineages. Yet it seems probable that both lineages differences and mass extinctions affect the same groups. RESULTS: Here we used simulations to test the performance of two widely used methods under complex scenarios of diversification. We report good performances, although with a tendency to over-predict events with increasing complexity of the scenario. CONCLUSION: Overall, we find that lineage shifts are better detected than mass extinctions. This work has significance to assess the methods currently used to estimate changes in diversification using phylogenetic trees. Our results also point toward the need to develop new models of diversification to expand our capabilities to analyse realistic and complex evolutionary scenarios.

The effects of a language intervention program on the phonological and word awareness skills of language-delayed kindergarten children

Over the past decade, research has suggested that phonological and word awareness skills (i.e., the ability to reflect on and manipulate the components of language) are important for early reading acquisition. This study examined the phonological and word awareness skills of language-delayed kindergarten children at the beginning and end of a language intervention program using five tasks. The results were compared to the performances of average kindergarten children who did not participate in the language intervention program. There were significant performance differences for all tasks, favouring the average children, at the beginning of the intervention program. However, at the end of the training interval, the languagedelayed children performed as well as the average children.

The waning of the two giants: the electoral decline of the Italian Christian Democratic Party and the Italian Communist Party

Italy is currently experiencing profound political change. One aspect of this change involves the decline in electoral support for the Italian Christian Democratic Party (DC) and the Italian Communist Party (PCI), now the Democratic Party of the Left (PDS). Signs of the electoral decline of both parties began to appear in the late 1970s and early 1980s and accelerated in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The pr imar y purpos e of th is thes is is to expla i n the electoral decline of the DC and PCI/PDS in the last decade. The central question being addressed in this thesis is the following: What factors contributed to the decline in electoral support for the DC and PCI? In addition, the thesis attempts to better comprehend the change in magni tude and direction of the Italian party system. The thesis examines the central question within an analytical framework that consists of models explaining electoral change in advanced industrial democracies and in Italy. A review of the literature on electoral change in Italy reveals three basic models: structural (socioeconomic and demographic factors), subcultural (the decline of the Catholic and Communist subcultures), and pol i tical (factors such as party strategy, and the crisis and collapse of communism in iv Eastern Europe and the former soviet Union and the end to the Cold War). Significant structural changes have occurred in Italy, but they do not invariably hurt or benefit either party. The Catholic and Communist subcultures have declined in size and strength, but only gradually. More importantly, the study discovers that the decline of communism and party strategy adversely affected the electoral performances of the DC and PC!. The basic conclusion is that political factors primarily and directly contributed to the decline in electoral support for both parties, while societal factors (structural and subcultural changes) played a secondary and indirect role. While societal factors do not contribute directly to the decline in electoral support for both parties, they do provide the context within which both parties operated. In addition, the Italian party system is becoming more fragmented and traditional political parties are losing electoral support to new political movements, such as the Lega Nord (LN-Northern League) and the Rete (Network). The growing importance of the North-South and centre-periphery cleavages suggests that the Italian party system, which is traditionally based on religious and ideological cleavages, may be changing.