MODIFIED TEST STATISTICS BY INTER-VOXEL VARIANCE SHRINKAGE WITH AN APPLICATION TO fMRI

Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) is a non-invasive technique which is commonly used to quantify changes in blood oxygenation and flow coupled to neuronal activation. One of the primary goals of fMRI studies is to identify localized brain regions where neuronal activation levels vary between groups. Single voxel t-tests have been commonly used to determine whether activation related to the protocol differs across groups. Due to the generally limited number of subjects within each study, accurate estimation of variance at each voxel is difficult. Thus, combining information across voxels in the statistical analysis of fMRI data is desirable in order to improve efficiency. Here we construct a hierarchical model and apply an Empirical Bayes framework on the analysis of group fMRI data, employing techniques used in high throughput genomic studies. The key idea is to shrink residual variances by combining information across voxels, and subsequently to construct an improved test statistic in lieu of the classical t-statistic. This hierarchical model results in a shrinkage of voxel-wise residual sample variances towards a common value. The shrunken estimator for voxelspecific variance components on the group analyses outperforms the classical residual error estimator in terms of mean squared error. Moreover, the shrunken test-statistic decreases false positive rate when testing differences in brain contrast maps across a wide range of simulation studies. This methodology was also applied to experimental data regarding a cognitive activation task.

Impact factor statistics and publication practice: What can we learn? (Editorial)

Peer review procedures and citation statistics are important yet often neglected components of the scientific publication process. Here I discuss fundamental consequences of such quality measures for the scientific community and propose three remedial actions: (1) use of a ''Combined Impact Estimate'' as a measure of citation statistics, (2) adoption of an open reviewing policy and (3) acceleration of the publication process in order to raise the reputation of the entire discipline (in our case: behavioural science). Authors, reviewers and editors are invited to contribute to the improvement of publication practice.

Heart failure events, and case fatalities in Switzerland based on hospital statistics and cause of death statistics

In Switzerland there is a shortage of population-based information on heart failure (HF) incidence and case fatalities (CF). The aim of this study was to estimate HF event rates and both in- and out-of-hospital CF rates.

Statistics of the received power for free space optical channels

Free space optical (FSO) communication links can experience extreme signal degradation due to atmospheric turbulence induced spatial and temporal irradiance fuctuations (scintillation) in the laser wavefront. In addition, turbulence can cause the laser beam centroid to wander resulting in power fading, and sometimes complete loss of the signal. Spreading of the laser beam and jitter are also artifacts of atmospheric turbulence. To accurately predict the signal fading that occurs in a laser communication system and to get a true picture of how this affects crucial performance parameters like bit error rate (BER) it is important to analyze the probability density function (PDF) of the integrated irradiance fuctuations at the receiver. In addition, it is desirable to find a theoretical distribution that accurately models these ?uctuations under all propagation conditions. The PDF of integrated irradiance fuctuations is calculated from numerical wave-optic simulations of a laser after propagating through atmospheric turbulence to investigate the evolution of the distribution as the aperture diameter is increased. The simulation data distribution is compared to theoretical gamma-gamma and lognormal PDF models under a variety of scintillation regimes from weak to very strong. Our results show that the gamma-gamma PDF provides a good fit to the simulated data distribution for all aperture sizes studied from weak through moderate scintillation. In strong scintillation, the gamma-gamma PDF is a better fit to the distribution for point-like apertures and the lognormal PDF is a better fit for apertures the size of the atmospheric spatial coherence radius ρ0 or larger. In addition, the PDF of received power from a Gaussian laser beam, which has been adaptively compensated at the transmitter before propagation to the receiver of a FSO link in the moderate scintillation regime is investigated. The complexity of the adaptive optics (AO) system is increased in order to investigate the changes in the distribution of the received power and how this affects the BER. For the 10 km link, due to the non-reciprocal nature of the propagation path the optimal beam to transmit is unknown. These results show that a low-order level of complexity in the AO provides a better estimate for the optimal beam to transmit than a higher order for non-reciprocal paths. For the 20 km link distance it was found that, although minimal, all AO complexity levels provided an equivalent improvement in BER and that no AO complexity provided the correction needed for the optimal beam to transmit. Finally, the temporal power spectral density of received power from a FSO communication link is investigated. Simulated and experimental results for the coherence time calculated from the temporal correlation function are presented. Results for both simulation and experimental data show that the coherence time increases as the receiving aperture diameter increases. For finite apertures the coherence time increases as the communication link distance is increased. We conjecture that this is due to the increasing speckle size within the pupil plane of the receiving aperture for an increasing link distance.

Berry-Esseen bounds for nonlinear statistics, and asymptotic relative efficiency between correlation statistics

Four papers, written in collaboration with the author’s graduate school advisor, are presented. In the first paper, uniform and non-uniform Berry-Esseen (BE) bounds on the convergence to normality of a general class of nonlinear statistics are provided; novel applications to specific statistics, including the non-central Student’s, Pearson’s, and the non-central Hotelling’s, are also stated. In the second paper, a BE bound on the rate of convergence of the F-statistic used in testing hypotheses from a general linear model is given. The third paper considers the asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) between the Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall correlation statistics; conditions sufficient to ensure that the Spearman and Kendall statistics are equally (asymptotically) efficient are provided, and several models are considered which illustrate the use of such conditions. Lastly, the fourth paper proves that, in the bivariate normal model, the ARE between any of these correlation statistics possesses certain monotonicity properties; quadratic lower and upper bounds on the ARE are stated as direct applications of such monotonicity patterns.

Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

Descriptive Statistics and Linear Regression

This morning Dr. Battle will introduce descriptive statistics and linear regression and how to apply these concepts in mathematical modeling. You will also learn how to use a spreadsheet to help with statistical analysis and to create graphs.

Circulating fibrinogen but not D-dimer level is associated with vital exhaustion in school teachers

Meta-analyses have established elevated fibrinogen and D-dimer levels in the circulation as biological risk factors for the development and progression of coronary artery disease (CAD). Here, we investigated whether vital exhaustion (VE), a known psychosocial risk factor for CAD, is associated with fibrinogen and D-dimer levels in a sample of apparently healthy school teachers. The teaching profession has been proposed as a potentially high stressful occupation due to enhanced psychosocial stress at the workplace. Plasma fibrinogen and D-dimer levels were measured in 150 middle-aged male and female teachers derived from the first year of the Trier-Teacher-Stress-Study. Log-transformed levels were analyzed using linear regression. Results yielded a significant association between VE and fibrinogen (p = 0.02) but not D-dimer controlling for relevant covariates. Further investigation of possible interaction effects resulted in a significant association between fibrinogen and the interaction term "VE x gender" (p = 0.05). In a secondary analysis, we reran linear regression models for males and females separately. Gender-specific results revealed that the association between fibrinogen and VE remained significant in males but not females. In sum, the present data support the notion that fibrinogen levels are positively related to VE. Elevated fibrinogen might be one biological pathway by which chronic work stress may impact on teachers' cardiovascular health in the long run.

Heart rate recovery after exercise in chronic heart failure: Role of vital exhaustion and type D personality

OBJECTIVE: Vital exhaustion and type D personality previously predicted mortality and cardiac events in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Reduced heart rate recovery (HRR) also predicts morbidity and mortality in CHF. We hypothesized that elevated levels of vital exhaustion and type D personality are both associated with decreased HRR. METHODS: Fifty-one patients with CHF (mean age 58+/-12 years, 82% men) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) Vital Exhaustion Questionnaire and the 14-item type D questionnaire asking about negative affectivity and social inhibition. HRR was calculated as the difference between heart rate at the end of exercise and 1min after abrupt cessation of exercise (HRR-1). Regression analyses were adjusted for gender, age, LVEF, and maximum exercise capacity. RESULTS: Vital exhaustion explained 8.4% of the variance in continuous HRR-1 (p=0.045). For each point increase on the vital exhaustion score (range 0-18) there was a mean+/-SEM decrease of 0.54+/-0.26bpm in HRR-1. Type D personality showed a trend toward statistical significance for being associated with lower levels of HRR-1 explaining 6.5% of the variance (p<0.08). The likelihood of having HRR-1vital exhaustion and type D personality were both independently associated with reduced HRR-1. The findings provide a hitherto not explored psychobiological explanation for poor cardiac outcome in patients with CHF.

Independent association of sleep quality, fatigue, and vital exhaustion with platelet count in patients with a previous venous thromboembolic event

Elevated platelet count might reflect increased inflammation as an etiological factor for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Poor sleep, fatigue, and exhaustion are all associated with inflammation and are also common sequelae of chronic psychological stress that previously predicted increased risk of VTE. We hypothesized that platelet count would be high in patients with VTE who sleep poorly and who are fatigued and exhausted. We investigated 205 patients scheduled for thrombophilia work-up > or =3 months after an objectively diagnosed venous thromboembolic event. They completed the Jenkins Sleep Questionnaire to rate subjective sleep quality and the short forms of the Multidimensional Fatigue Symptom Inventory and Maastricht Vital Exhaustion Questionnaire. Platelet count was determined by a mechanical Coulter counter. Analyses controlled for age, sex, body mass index, time since the index event, and medication. After taking into account these covariates, poorer sleep quality (p = 0.001; DeltaR(2)= 0.046), high fatigue (p = 0.008; DeltaR(2)= 0.032), and vital exhaustion (p = 0.050; DeltaR(2)= 0.017) were all associated with elevated platelet count. In addition, high level of fatigue mediated the relationship between poor sleep quality and elevated platelet count (p = 0.046). Poor sleep quality, high levels of fatigue, and vital exhaustion were identified as correlates of an elevated platelet count in patients with a previous episode of VTE. Given the emerging role of inflammatory processes in VTE, the findings suggest a mechanism through which behavioral and chronic psychological stressors might contribute to incident and recurrent venous thrombotic events.

Stroke events, and case fatalities in Switzerland based on hospital statistics and cause of death statistics

OBJECTIVE: In Switzerland there is a shortage of population-based information on stroke incidence and case fatalities (CF). The aim of this study was to estimate stroke event rates and both in- and out-of-hospital CF rates. METHODS: Data on stroke diagnoses, coded according to I60-I64 (ICD 10), were taken from the Federal Hospital Discharge Statistics database (HOST) and the Cause of Death database (CoD) for the year 2004. The number of total stroke events and of age- and gender-specific and agestandardised event rates were estimated; overall CF, in-hospital and out-of-hospital, were determined. RESULTS: Among the overall number of 13 996 hospital discharges from stroke (HOST) the number was lower in women (n = 6736) than in men (n = 7260). A total of 3568 deaths (2137 women and 1431 men) due to stroke were recorded in the CoD database. The number of estimated stroke events was 15 733, and higher in women (n = 7933) than in men (n = 7800). Men presented significantly higher age-specific stroke event rates and a higher age-standardised event rate (178.7/100 000 versus 119.7/100 000). Overall CF rates were significantly higher for women (26.9%) than for men (18.4%). The same was true of out-of-hospital CF but not of in-hospital CF rates. CONCLUSION: The data on estimated stroke events obtained indicate that stroke discharge rate underestimates the stroke event rate. Out-of-hospital deaths from stroke accounted for the largest proportion of total stroke deaths. Sex differences in both number of total stroke events and deaths could be explained by the higher proportion of women than men aged 55+ in the Swiss population.