A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation

A multivariate analysis on flood variables is needed to design some hydraulic structures like dams, as the complexity of the routing process in a reservoir requires a representation of the full hydrograph. In this work, a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume, in order to know the probability of occurrence of a given inflow hydrograph. However, the risk of dam overtopping is given by the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, which depends on the hydrograph variables, the reservoir volume and the spillway crest length. Consequently, an additional bivariate return period, the so-called routed return period, was defined in terms of risk of dam overtopping based on this maximum water elevation obtained after routing the inflow hydrographs. The theoretical return periods, which give the probability of occurrence of a hydrograph prior to accounting for the reservoir routing, were compared with the routed return period, as in both cases hydrographs with the same probability will draw a curve in the peak-volume space. The procedure was applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in Spain. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered to investigate the influence of the dam and reservoir characteristics on the results. The methodology improves the estimation of the Design Flood Hydrograph and can be applied to assess the risk of dam overtopping

Portuguese Vaulting System at the Dawn and Early Modern Period. Between tradition and Innovation

Portuguese Vaulting System at the Dawn and Early Modern Period. Between tradition and Innovation. III International Congress on Construction History . Brandenburg university of technology Cottbus, Germany. Colab: Soraya Genin, Krista de Jonge.

Effects of coaches' timeouts on basketball teams' offensive and defensive performances according to momentary differences in score and game period.

The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of game timeouts on basketball teams? offensive and defensive performances according to momentary differences in score and game period. The sample consisted of 144 timeouts registered during 18 basketball games randomly selected from the 2007 European Basketball Championship (Spain). For each timeout, five ball possessions were registered before (n?493) and after the timeout (n?475). The offensive and defensive efficiencies were registered across the first 35 min and last 5 min of games. A k-means cluster analysis classified the timeouts according to momentary score status as follows: losing ( ?10 to ?3 points), balanced ( ?2 to 3 points), and winning (4 to 10 points). Repeated-measures analysis of variance identified statistically significant main effects between pre and post timeout offensive and defensive values. Chi-square analysis of game period identified a higher percentage of timeouts called during the last 5 min of a game compared with the first 35 min (64.999.1% vs. 35.1910.3%; x ?5.4, PB0.05). Results showed higher post timeout offensive and defensive performances. No other effect or interaction was found for defensive performances. Offensive performances were better in the last 5 min of games, with the least differences when in balanced situations and greater differences when in winning situations. Results also showed one interaction between timeouts and momentary differences in score, with increased values when in losing and balanced situations but decreased values when in winning situations. Overall, the results suggest that coaches should examine offensive and defensive performances according to game period and differences in score when considering whether to call a timeout.

Return of Equity Issues in the Spanish Stock Market from the Investor’s Perspective, during the 1997-2012 Period

Is it profitable for an investor, from a risk-return perspective, to acquire a stake in a quoted company when a capital increase is announced? This paper analyses the return obtained from the investment in equity issues with cash contribution and pre-emptive rights, aimed at funding corporate activities: acquisitions, investments in new facilities and/or strengthening the balance sheet of the companies undertaking the equity issue. During the 16 years covered by the study, the results show a negative average excess risk-adjusted return of almost 5%, from the moment that the equity offer is announced until the completion of the preferential subscription period. To obtain this excess return, the difference between the nominal Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and the expected return, using the CAPM, is computed for each equity issue. The intention behind this method is to eliminate the effects of time and any other possible effect on the stock price during the period of the analysis.The results from this article are consistent with the Pecking Order theory for the Spanish Stock Market also six months after the preferential subscription period. However, there is a positive return after three months.

Influence of body weight of the pullets at hatch on egg production at the onset of the subsequent laying period

We studied the influence of pre-incubation weight of eggs (EW) laid by 24 wk-old brown laying breeders on egg production from 18 (start of egg production) to 22 wk of age (average egg production across EW treatments of 87.8%). The experiment consisted in 7 treatments based on the initial EW (47 to 53 g with 1 g difference between groups) Average BW of the extreme groups varied at hatching from 32.5 to 35.4 g, respectively. Feed intake, egg production, and egg weight were recorded weekly by replicate as well as for the entire experiment (18 to 22 wk of age). Hens were weighed by replicate at the beginning and at the end of the experiment. From these data, ADFI, egg production, egg weight, egg mass, feed conversion ratio per kilogram of eggs and per dozen of eggs, and BW gain were calculated by week and for the entire experiment. Also, the number of dirty, broken, and shell-less eggs was recorded daily by replicate in all eggs produced. Data were analyzed as a completely randomized design with 7 treatments differing in the initial pre-hatching EW. Effects of EW on the variables studied were partitioned into linear and quadratic components. EW did not affect the age at which pullets reached 50% egg production, cumulative egg production, or BW gain of the hens from 18 to 22 wk of age. Egg weight and the proportion of dirty, broken, and shell-less eggs were not affected by the BW of the pullets at hatching. In summary, small eggs (>47 g) laid by young, healthy laying breeders, can be used successfully to produce high quality pullets

Influence of body composition on gait Kknetics throughout pregnancy and postpartum period

Pregnancy leads to several changes in body composition and morphology of women. It is not clear whether the biomechanical changes occurring in this period are due exclusively to body composition and size or to other physiological factors. The purpose was to quantify the morphology and body composition of women throughout pregnancy and in the postpartum period and identify the contribution of these parameters on the lower limb joints kinetic during gait. Eleven women were assessed longitudinally, regarding anthropometric, body composition, and kinetic parameters of gait. Body composition and body dimensions showed a significant increase during pregnancy and a decrease in the postpartum period. In the postpartum period, body composition was similar to the 1st trimester, except for triceps skinfold, total calf area, and body mass index, with higher results than at the beginning of pregnancy. Regression models were developed to predict women’s internal loading through anthropometric variables. Four models include variables associated with the amount of fat; four models include variables related to overall body weight; three models include fat-free mass; one model includes the shape of the trunk as a predictor variable. Changes in maternal body composition and morphology largely determine kinetic dynamics of the joints in pregnant women.

Do the recent severe droughts in the Amazonia have the same period of length?

5 figures Acknowledgments This work was partially supported by the NNSFC (Grant Nos. 11305062, 11135001), the DFG/FAPESP (Grant No. IRTG 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0), and Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No. 14.Z50.31.0033 with Institute of Applied Physics RAS). All data for this paper is properly cited and referred to in the reference list.

The Assessment of Total Energy Expenditure During a 14-day 'In-Season' Period of Professional Rugby League Players Using the Doubly Labelled Water Method

Peer reviewed

Use of phosphorous mapping and sea-level change data in assessing coastal activity zones and establishing site chronology : A case study from the Icelandic multi-period site of Vatnsfjörður

This paper forms part of Lukasz Mikolajczyk's PhD dissertation, which is supervised by Karen Milek

Rapid down-regulation of mammalian Period genes during behavioral resetting of the circadian clock

The pervasive role of circadian clocks in regulating physiology and behavior is widely recognized. Their adaptive value is their ability to be entrained by environmental cues such that the internal circadian phase is a reliable predictor of solar time. In mammals, both light and nonphotic behavioral cues can entrain the principal oscillator of the hypothalamic suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN). However, although light can advance or delay the clock during circadian night, behavioral events trigger phase advances during the subjective day, when the clock is insensitive to light. The recent identification of Period (Per) genes in mammals, homologues of dperiod, which encodes a core element of the circadian clockwork in Drosophila, now provides the opportunity to explain circadian timing and entrainment at a molecular level. In mice, expression of mPer1 and mPer2 in the SCN is rhythmic and acutely up-regulated by light. Moreover, the temporal relations between mRNA and protein cycles are consistent with a clock based on a transcriptional/translational feedback loop. Here we describe circadian oscillations of Per1 and Per2 in the SCN of the Syrian hamster, showing that PER1 protein and mRNA cycles again behave in a manner consistent with a negative-feedback oscillator. Furthermore, we demonstrate that nonphotic resetting has the opposite effect to light: acutely down-regulating these genes. Their sensitivity to nonphotic resetting cues supports their proposed role as core elements of the circadian oscillator. Moreover, this study provides an explanation at the molecular level for the contrasting but convergent effects of photic and nonphotic cues on the clock.

Phosphorylation of the Neurospora clock protein FREQUENCY determines its degradation rate and strongly influences the period length of the circadian clock

Under free running conditions, FREQUENCY (FRQ) protein, a central component of the Neurospora circadian clock, is progressively phosphorylated, becoming highly phosphorylated before its degradation late in the circadian day. To understand the biological function of FRQ phosphorylation, kinase inhibitors were used to block FRQ phosphorylation in vivo and the effects on FRQ and the clock observed. 6-dimethylaminopurine (a general kinase inhibitor) is able to block FRQ phosphorylation in vivo, reducing the rate of phosphorylation and the degradation of FRQ and lengthening the period of the clock in a dose-dependent manner. To confirm the role of FRQ phosphorylation in this clock effect, phosphorylation sites in FRQ were identified by systematic mutagenesis of the FRQ ORF. The mutation of one phosphorylation site at Ser-513 leads to a dramatic reduction of the rate of FRQ degradation and a very long period (>30 hr) of the clock. Taken together, these data strongly suggest that FRQ phosphorylation triggers its degradation, and the degradation rate of FRQ is a major determining factor for the period length of the Neurospora circadian clock.

Modulation of the baboon (Papio anubis) uterine endometrium by chorionic gonadotrophin during the period of uterine receptivity

This study was undertaken to determine the modulation of uterine function by chorionic gonadotrophin (CG) in a nonhuman primate. Infusion of recombinant human CG (hCG) between days 6 and 10 post ovulation initiated the endoreplication of the uterine surface epithelium to form distinct epithelial plaques. These plaque cells stained intensely for cytokeratin and the proliferating cell nuclear antigen. The stromal fibroblasts below the epithelial plaques stained positively for α-smooth muscle actin (αSMA). Expression of αSMA is associated with the initiation of decidualization in the baboon endometrium. Synthesis of the glandular secretory protein glycodelin, as assessed by Western blot analysis, was markedly up-regulated by hCG, and this increase was confirmed by immunocytochemistry, Northern blot analysis, and reverse transcriptase-PCR. To determine whether hCG directly modulated these uterine responses, we treated ovariectomized baboons sequentially with estradiol and progesterone to mimic the hormonal profile of the normal menstrual cycle. Infusion of hCG into the oviduct of steroid-hormone-treated ovariectomized baboons induced the expression of αSMA in the stromal cells and glycodelin in the glandular epithelium. The epithelial plaque reaction, however, was not readily evident. These studies demonstrate a physiological effect of CG on the uterine endometrium in vivo and suggest that the primate blastocyst signal, like the blastocyst signals of other species, modulates the uterine environment prior to implantation.