Development of a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engine electronic control module tables – Part 1: data requirements, processing, and analysis

This is the first part of a study investigating a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engines. The motivation is to populate hundreds of parameters (which can be calibrated) in a methodical and optimum manner by using model-based optimization in conjunction with the manual process so that, relative to the manual process used by itself, a significant improvement in transient emissions and fuel consumption and a sizable reduction in calibration time and test cell requirements is achieved. Empirical transient modelling and optimization has been addressed in the second part of this work, while the required data for model training and generalization are the focus of the current work. Transient and steady-state data from a turbocharged multicylinder diesel engine have been examined from a model training perspective. A single-cylinder engine with external air-handling has been used to expand the steady-state data to encompass transient parameter space. Based on comparative model performance and differences in the non-parametric space, primarily driven by a high engine difference between exhaust and intake manifold pressures (ΔP) during transients, it has been recommended that transient emission models should be trained with transient training data. It has been shown that electronic control module (ECM) estimates of transient charge flow and the exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) fraction cannot be accurate at the high engine ΔP frequently encountered during transient operation, and that such estimates do not account for cylinder-to-cylinder variation. The effects of high engine ΔP must therefore be incorporated empirically by using transient data generated from a spectrum of transient calibrations. Specific recommendations on how to choose such calibrations, how many data to acquire, and how to specify transient segments for data acquisition have been made. Methods to process transient data to account for transport delays and sensor lags have been developed. The processed data have then been visualized using statistical means to understand transient emission formation. Two modes of transient opacity formation have been observed and described. The first mode is driven by high engine ΔP and low fresh air flowrates, while the second mode is driven by high engine ΔP and high EGR flowrates. The EGR fraction is inaccurately estimated at both modes, while EGR distribution has been shown to be present but unaccounted for by the ECM. The two modes and associated phenomena are essential to understanding why transient emission models are calibration dependent and furthermore how to choose training data that will result in good model generalization.

Development of a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engine electronic control module tables – Part 2: modelling and optimization

This is the second part of a study investigating a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engines. The first part addressed the data requirements and data processing required for empirical transient emission and torque models. The current work focuses on modelling and optimization. The unexpected result of this investigation is that when trained on transient data, simple regression models perform better than more powerful methods such as neural networks or localized regression. This result has been attributed to extrapolation over data that have estimated rather than measured transient air-handling parameters. The challenges of detecting and preventing extrapolation using statistical methods that work well with steady-state data have been explained. The concept of constraining the distribution of statistical leverage relative to the distribution of the starting solution to prevent extrapolation during the optimization process has been proposed and demonstrated. Separate from the issue of extrapolation is preventing the search from being quasi-static. Second-order linear dynamic constraint models have been proposed to prevent the search from returning solutions that are feasible if each point were run at steady state, but which are unrealistic in a transient sense. Dynamic constraint models translate commanded parameters to actually achieved parameters that then feed into the transient emission and torque models. Combined model inaccuracies have been used to adjust the optimized solutions. To frame the optimization problem within reasonable dimensionality, the coefficients of commanded surfaces that approximate engine tables are adjusted during search iterations, each of which involves simulating the entire transient cycle. The resulting strategy, different from the corresponding manual calibration strategy and resulting in lower emissions and efficiency, is intended to improve rather than replace the manual calibration process.

Geochemical Modeling and Analysis of the Frac Water Used in the Hydraulic Fracturing of the Marcellus Formation, Pennsylvania

The hydraulic fracturing of the Marcellus Formation creates a byproduct known as frac water. Five frac water samples were collected in Bradford County, PA. Inorganic chemical analysis, field parameters analysis, alkalinity titrations, total dissolved solids(TDS), total suspended solids (TSS), biological oxygen demand (BOD), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) were conducted on each sample to characterize frac water. A database of frac water chemistry results from across the state of Pennsylvania from multiple sources was compiled in order to provide the public and research communitywith an accurate characterization of frac water. Four geochemical models were created to model the reactions between frac water and the Marcellus Formation, Purcell Limestone, and the oil field brines presumed present in the formations. The average concentrations of chloride and TDS in the five frac water samples were 1.1 �± 0.5 x 105 mg/L (5.5X average seawater) and 140,000 mg/L (4X average seawater). BOD values for frac water immediately upon flow back were over 10X greater than the BOD of typical wastewater, but decreased into the range of typical wastewater after a short period of time. The COD of frac water decreases dramatically with an increase in elapsed time from flow back, but remain considerably higher than typicalwastewater. Different alkalinity calculation methods produced a range of alkalinity values for frac water: this result is most likely due to high concentrations of aliphatic acid anions present in the samples. Laboratory analyses indicate that the frac watercomposition is quite variable depending on the companies from which the water was collected, the geology of the local area, and number of fracturing jobs in which the frac water was used, but will require more treatment than typical wastewater regardless of theprecise composition of each sample. The geochemical models created suggest that the presence of organic complexes in an oil field brine and Marcellus Formation aid in the dissolution of ions such as bariumand strontium into the solution. Although equilibration reactions between the Marcellus Formation and the slickwater account for some of the final frac water composition, the predominant control of frac water composition appears to be the ratio of the mixture between the oil field brine and slickwater. The high concentration of barium in the frac water is likely due to the abundance of barite nodules in the Purcell Limestone, and the lack of sulfate in the frac water samples is due to the reducing, anoxic conditions in the earth's subsurface that allow for the degassing of H2S(g).

Four-year results following treatment of intrabony periodontal defects with an enamel matrix derivative alone or combined with a biphasic calcium phosphate

The aim of this study was to evaluate the 4-year clinical outcomes following regenerative surgery in intrabony defects with either EMD + BCP or EMD. Twenty-four patients with advanced chronic periodontitis, displaying one-, two-, or three-walled intrabony defect with a probing depth of at least 6 mm, were randomly treated with either EMD + BCP (test) or EMD alone (control). The following clinical parameters were evaluated at baseline, at 1 year and at 4 years after regenerative surgery: plaque index, gingival index, bleeding on probing, probing depth, gingival recession, and clinical attachment level (CAL). The primary outcome variable was CAL. No differences in any of the investigated parameters were observed at baseline between the two groups. The test group demonstrated a mean CAL change from from 10.8 ± 1.6 mm to 7.4 ± 1.6 mm (p < 0.001) and to 7.6 ± 1.7 mm (p < 0.001) at 1 and 4 years, respectively. In the control group, mean CAL changed from 10.4 ± 1.3 at baseline to 6.9 ± 1.0 mm (p < 0.001) at 1 year and 7.2 ± 1.2 mm (p < 0.001) at 4 years. At 4 years, two defects in the test group and three defects in the control group have lost 1 mm of the CAL gained at 1 year. Compared to baseline, at 4 years, a CAL gain of ≥3 mm was measured in 67% of the defects (i.e., in 8 out of 12) in the test group and in 75% of the defects (i.e., in 9 out of 12) in the control group. There were no statistically significant differences in any of the investigated parameters at 1 and at 4 years between the two groups. Within their limits, the present results indicate that: (a) the clinical improvements obtained with both treatments can be maintained over a period of 4 years, and (b) in two- and three-walled intrabony defects, the addition of BCP did not additionally improve the outcomes obtained with EMD alone. In two- and three-walled intrabony defects, the combination of EMD + BCP did not show any advantage over the use of EMD alone.

Quantitative assessment of physiological and behavioural parameters in healthy dairy cows evoked by transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation of the udder

The pain and distress associated with transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) of the udder was evaluated by treating 20 healthy dairy cows with an electrical udder stimulator. This generated a sequence of pulses (frequency: 160+/-10% impulses per second, duration 250 mus) and provided voltage ranges from 0 to 10 volts (+/-10%). Trials took place on three consecutive days, twice daily after morning and evening milking. Daily sessions were divided into two periods: (1) control (sham treatment) and (2) treatment (real treatment). Physiological (heart rate, respiratory rate, and plasma cortisol concentration) as well as ethological parameters (kicking, weight shifting, and looking backwards to udder) were defined as pain-indicating parameters and observed. Evaluation of data showed that only one parameter (kicking) was significantly increased during real treatment compared to sham treatment. It is concluded that the TENS therapy tested in this study can evoke changes in behaviour (increased kicking) consistent with an experience of pain in some cows.

Changes in faecal bacteria and metabolic parameters in foals during the first six weeks of life

Many foals develop diarrhoea within the first two weeks of life which has been suggested to coincide with postpartum oestrus in their dams. To analyse the pathogenesis of this diarrhoea we have determined faecal bacteria in foals and their dams (n=30 each), and serum IGF-1 and gamma-globulins for 6 weeks after birth. In addition, effects of beta-carotene supplementation to mares (group 1: 1000 mg/day, n=15, group 2: control, n=15) on diarrhoea in foals were studied. Diarrhoea occurred in 92 and 79% of foals in groups 1 and 2, respectively, but was not correlated with oestrus in mares. Beta-carotene supplementation was without effect on foal diarrhoea. In mares, bacterial flora remained stable. The percentage of foals with cultures positive for E. coli was low at birth but increased within one day, the percentage positive for Enterococcus sp. was low for 10 days and for Streptococcus sp. and Staphylococcus sp. was low for 2-4 weeks. By 4 weeks of age, bacterial flora in foals resembled an adult pattern. Concentration of serum IGF-1 was low at birth (group 1: 149 +/- 11, group 2: 166 +/- 17ng/ml), increased after day 1 (day 7 group 1: 384 +/- 30, group 2: 372 +/- 36) but at no time differed between groups. Serum gamma-globulin concentration in foals was low before colostrum intake and highest on day 1 (p<0.001 over time). In conclusion, neonatal diarrhoea in foals does not coincide with postpartum oestrus in their dams but with changes in intestinal bacteria and is not influenced by beta-carotene supplementation given to mares.

Ranking of parameters of pain hypersensitivity according to their discriminative ability in chronic low back pain

Low back pain is associated with plasticity changes and central hypersensitivity in a subset of patients. We performed a case-control study to explore the discriminative ability of different quantitative sensory tests in distinguishing between 40 cases with chronic low back pain and 300 pain-free controls, and to rank these tests according to the extent of their association with chronic pain. Gender, age, height, weight, body mass index, and psychological measures were recorded as potential confounders. We used 26 quantitative sensory tests, including different modalities of pressure, heat, cold, and electrical stimulation. As measures of discrimination, we estimated receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and likelihood ratios. Six tests seemed useful (in order of their discriminative ability): (1) pressure pain detection threshold at the site of most severe pain (fitted area under the ROC, 0.87), (2) single electrical stimulation pain detection threshold (0.87), (3) single electrical stimulation reflex threshold (0.83), (4) pressure pain tolerance threshold at the site of most severe pain (0.81), (5) pressure pain detection threshold at suprascapular region (0.80), and (6) temporal summation pain threshold (0.80). Pressure and electrical pain modalities seemed most promising and may be used for diagnosis of pain hypersensitivity and potentially for identifying individuals at risk of developing chronic low back pain over time.

Cardiac transplantation with hearts from donors after circulatory declaration of death: haemodynamic and biochemical parameters at procurement predict recovery following cardioplegic storage in a rat model

OBJECTIVES: Donation after circulatory declaration of death (DCDD) could significantly improve the number of cardiac grafts for transplantation. Graft evaluation is particularly important in the setting of DCDD given that conditions of cardio-circulatory arrest and warm ischaemia differ, leading to variable tissue injury. The aim of this study was to identify, at the time of heart procurement, means to predict contractile recovery following cardioplegic storage and reperfusion using an isolated rat heart model. Identification of reliable approaches to evaluate cardiac grafts is key in the development of protocols for heart transplantation with DCDD. METHODS: Hearts isolated from anaesthetized male Wistar rats (n = 34) were exposed to various perfusion protocols. To simulate DCDD conditions, rats were exsanguinated and maintained at 37°C for 15-25 min (warm ischaemia). Isolated hearts were perfused with modified Krebs-Henseleit buffer for 10 min (unloaded), arrested with cardioplegia, stored for 3 h at 4°C and then reperfused for 120 min (unloaded for 60 min, then loaded for 60 min). Left ventricular (LV) function was assessed using an intraventricular micro-tip pressure catheter. Statistical significance was determined using the non-parametric Spearman rho correlation analysis. RESULTS: After 120 min of reperfusion, recovery of LV work measured as developed pressure (DP)-heart rate (HR) product ranged from 0 to 15 ± 6.1 mmHg beats min(-1) 10(-3) following warm ischaemia of 15-25 min. Several haemodynamic parameters measured during early, unloaded perfusion at the time of heart procurement, including HR and the peak systolic pressure-HR product, correlated significantly with contractile recovery after cardioplegic storage and 120 min of reperfusion (P < 0.001). Coronary flow, oxygen consumption and lactate dehydrogenase release also correlated significantly with contractile recovery following cardioplegic storage and 120 min of reperfusion (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Haemodynamic and biochemical parameters measured at the time of organ procurement could serve as predictive indicators of contractile recovery. We believe that evaluation of graft suitability is feasible prior to transplantation with DCDD, and may, consequently, increase donor heart availability.

Simulating the impact of four control strategies on the population dynamics of Neospora caninum infection in Swiss dairy cattle

A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to assess the impact of different putative control strategies on the seroprevalence of Neospora caninum in female Swiss dairy cattle. The model structure comprised compartments of "susceptible" and "infected" animals (SI-model) and the cattle population was divided into 12 age classes. A reference model (Model 1) was developed to simulate the current (status quo) situation (present seroprevalence in Switzerland 12%), taking into account available demographic and seroprevalence data of Switzerland. Model 1 was modified to represent four putative control strategies: testing and culling of seropositive animals (Model 2), discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows (Model 3), chemotherapeutic treatment of calves from seropositive cows (Model 4), and vaccination of susceptible and infected animals (Model 5). Models 2-4 considered different sub-scenarios with regard to the frequency of diagnostic testing. Multivariable Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty in input parameters. A policy of annual testing and culling of all seropositive cattle in the population reduced the seroprevalence effectively and rapidly from 12% to <1% in the first year of simulation. The control strategies with discontinued breeding with offspring from all seropositive cows, chemotherapy of calves and vaccination of all cattle reduced the prevalence more slowly than culling but were still very effective (reduction of prevalence below 2% within 11, 23 and 3 years of simulation, respectively). However, sensitivity analyses revealed that the effectiveness of these strategies depended strongly on the quality of the input parameters used, such as the horizontal and vertical transmission factors, the sensitivity of the diagnostic test and the efficacy of medication and vaccination. Finally, all models confirmed that it was not possible to completely eradicate N. caninum as long as the horizontal transmission process was not interrupted.

Closed-loop control of mean arterial blood pressure during surgery with alfentanil: clinical evaluation of a novel model-based predictive controller

BACKGROUND: In contrast to hypnosis, there is no surrogate parameter for analgesia in anesthetized patients. Opioids are titrated to suppress blood pressure response to noxious stimulation. The authors evaluated a novel model predictive controller for closed-loop administration of alfentanil using mean arterial blood pressure and predicted plasma alfentanil concentration (Cp Alf) as input parameters. METHODS: The authors studied 13 healthy patients scheduled to undergo minor lumbar and cervical spine surgery. After induction with propofol, alfentanil, and mivacurium and tracheal intubation, isoflurane was titrated to maintain the Bispectral Index at 55 (+/- 5), and the alfentanil administration was switched from manual to closed-loop control. The controller adjusted the alfentanil infusion rate to maintain the mean arterial blood pressure near the set-point (70 mmHg) while minimizing the Cp Alf toward the set-point plasma alfentanil concentration (Cp Alfref) (100 ng/ml). RESULTS: Two patients were excluded because of loss of arterial pressure signal and protocol violation. The alfentanil infusion was closed-loop controlled for a mean (SD) of 98.9 (1.5)% of presurgery time and 95.5 (4.3)% of surgery time. The mean (SD) end-tidal isoflurane concentrations were 0.78 (0.1) and 0.86 (0.1) vol%, the Cp Alf values were 122 (35) and 181 (58) ng/ml, and the Bispectral Index values were 51 (9) and 52 (4) before surgery and during surgery, respectively. The mean (SD) absolute deviations of mean arterial blood pressure were 7.6 (2.6) and 10.0 (4.2) mmHg (P = 0.262), and the median performance error, median absolute performance error, and wobble were 4.2 (6.2) and 8.8 (9.4)% (P = 0.002), 7.9 (3.8) and 11.8 (6.3)% (P = 0.129), and 14.5 (8.4) and 5.7 (1.2)% (P = 0.002) before surgery and during surgery, respectively. A post hoc simulation showed that the Cp Alfref decreased the predicted Cp Alf compared with mean arterial blood pressure alone. CONCLUSION: The authors' controller has a similar set-point precision as previous hypnotic controllers and provides adequate alfentanil dosing during surgery. It may help to standardize opioid dosing in research and may be a further step toward a multiple input-multiple output controller.

Lung-function tests in neonates and infants with chronic lung disease: tidal breathing and respiratory control

This paper is the fourth in a series of reviews that will summarize available data and critically discuss the potential role of lung-function testing in infants with acute neonatal respiratory disorders and chronic lung disease of infancy. The current paper addresses information derived from tidal breathing measurements within the framework outlined in the introductory paper of this series, with particular reference to how these measurements inform on control of breathing. Infants with acute and chronic respiratory illness demonstrate differences in tidal breathing and its control that are of clinical consequence and can be measured objectively. The increased incidence of significant apnea in preterm infants and infants with chronic lung disease, together with the reportedly increased risk of sudden unexplained death within the latter group, suggests that control of breathing is affected by both maturation and disease. Clinical observations are supported by formal comparison of tidal breathing parameters and control of breathing indices in the research setting.

Effects on cycle control and bodyweight of the combined contraceptive ring, NuvaRing, versus an oral contraceptive containing 30 microg ethinyl estradiol and 3 mg drospirenone

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to compare cycle control, cycle-related characteristics and bodyweight effects of NuvaRing with those of a combined oral contraceptive (COC) containing 30 microg of ethinyl estradiol and 3 mg of drospirenone. METHODS: A randomized, multicentre, open-label trial in which 983 women were treated (intent-to-treat population) with NuvaRing or the COC for 13 cycles. RESULTS: Breakthrough bleeding or spotting during cycles 2-13 was in general less frequent with NuvaRing than that with the COC (4.7-10.4%) and showed a statistically significant odds ratio of 0.61 (95% confidence interval: 0.46, 0.80) with longitudinal analysis. Intended bleeding was significantly better for all cycles with NuvaRing (55.2-68.5%) than that with the COC (35.6-56.6%) (P < 0.01). Changes from baseline in mean bodyweight and body composition parameters were relatively small for both groups with no notable between-group differences. CONCLUSION: NuvaRing was associated with better cycle control than the COC, and there was no clinically relevant difference between the two groups in bodyweight.

Bacterial profile and burden of periodontal infection in subjects with a diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND: Periodontitis has been identified as a potential risk factor in cardiovascular diseases. It is possible that the stimulation of host responses to oral infections may result in vascular damage and the inducement of blood clotting. The aim of this study was to assess the role of periodontal infection and bacterial burden as an explanatory variable to the activation of the inflammatory process leading to acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS: A total of 161 consecutive surviving cases admitted with a diagnosis of ACS and 161 control subjects, matched with cases according to their gender, socioeconomic level, and smoking status, were studied. Serum white blood cell (WBC) counts, high- and low-density lipoprotein (HDL/LDL) levels, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsC-rp) levels, and clinical periodontal routine parameters were studied. The subgingival pathogens were assayed by the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method. RESULTS: Total oral bacterial load was higher in the subjects with ACS (mean difference: 17.4x10(5); SD: 10.8; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.2 to 17.4; P<0.001), and significant for 26 of 40 species including Porphyromonas gingivalis, Tannerella forsythensis, and Treponema denticola. Serum WBC counts, hsC-rp levels, Streptococcus intermedius, and Streptococcus sanguis, were explanatory factors to acute coronary syndrome status (Nagelkerke r2=0.49). CONCLUSION: The oral bacterial load of S. intermedius, S. sanguis, Streptococcus anginosus, T. forsythensis, T. denticola, and P. gingivalis may be concomitant risk factors in the development of ACS.

Predicting asthma control and exacerbations: chronic asthma as a complex dynamic model

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Predicting asthma episodes is notoriously difficult but has potentially significant consequences for the individual, as well as for healthcare services. The purpose of this review is to describe recent insights into the prediction of acute asthma episodes in relation to classical clinical, functional or inflammatory variables, as well as present a new concept for evaluating asthma as a dynamically regulated homeokinetic system. RECENT FINDINGS: Risk prediction for asthma episodes or relapse has been attempted using clinical scoring systems, considerations of environmental factors and lung function, as well as inflammatory and immunological markers in induced sputum or exhaled air, and these are summarized here. We have recently proposed that newer mathematical methods derived from statistical physics may be used to understand the complexity of asthma as a homeokinetic, dynamic system consisting of a network comprising multiple components, and also to assess the risk for future asthma episodes based on fluctuation analysis of long time series of lung function. SUMMARY: Apart from the classical analysis of risk factor and functional parameters, this new approach may be used to assess asthma control and treatment effects in the individual as well as in future research trials.

Semiparametric Latent Variable Regression Models for Spatio-temporal Modeling of Mobile Source Particles in the Greater Boston Area

Traffic particle concentrations show considerable spatial variability within a metropolitan area. We consider latent variable semiparametric regression models for modeling the spatial and temporal variability of black carbon and elemental carbon concentrations in the greater Boston area. Measurements of these pollutants, which are markers of traffic particles, were obtained from several individual exposure studies conducted at specific household locations as well as 15 ambient monitoring sites in the city. The models allow for both flexible, nonlinear effects of covariates and for unexplained spatial and temporal variability in exposure. In addition, the different individual exposure studies recorded different surrogates of traffic particles, with some recording only outdoor concentrations of black or elemental carbon, some recording indoor concentrations of black carbon, and others recording both indoor and outdoor concentrations of black carbon. A joint model for outdoor and indoor exposure that specifies a spatially varying latent variable provides greater spatial coverage in the area of interest. We propose a penalised spline formation of the model that relates to generalised kringing of the latent traffic pollution variable and leads to a natural Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for model fitting. We propose methods that allow us to control the degress of freedom of the smoother in a Bayesian framework. Finally, we present results from an analysis that applies the model to data from summer and winter separately