Impact of offshore wind power forecast error in a carbon constraint electricity market

This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact from offshore wind power forecast errors of up to 2000 MW on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price are analysed. The main findings of this research are an increase in system marginal prices of approximately 1% for every percentage point rise in the offshore wind power forecast error regardless of the average forecast error sign. If offshore wind power generates less than forecasted (−13%) generation costs and system marginal prices increases by 10%. However, if offshore wind power generates more than forecasted (4%) the generation costs decrease yet the system marginal prices increase by 3%. The dispatch down of large quantities of wind power highlights the need for flexible interconnector capacity. From a system operator's perspective it is more beneficial when scheduling wind ahead of the trading period to forecast less wind than will be generated.

Application of surface plasmon polaritons in the laser ablation and characterisation of thin aluminium films

Surface modification of thin aluminium films is both produced and characterised by exciting surface plasmon polaritons in an attenuated total reflection geometry: silica prism/aluminium/aluminium oxide system. The modification is performed, under ambient conditions, by exposure to a low fluence (

ANALYSIS OF SURFACE-PLASMON POLARITON ENHANCEMENT IN PHOTODETECTION BY AL-GAAS SCHOTTKY DIODES

The surface plasmon polariton mediated photoresponse from Al-GaAs diodes is examined in a prism-air gap-diode configuration as a function of both the wavelength of the incident light and thickness of the Al electrode. The experimental data shows a pronounced dip in reflectance as a function of internal angle of incidence in the prism, due to the excitation of the surface plasmon polariton at the Al-air interface, and a corresponding peak in device photosignal. Careful modelling of reflectance and quantum efficiency data shows that the bulk of the signal is generated by light which is re-radiated from this surface mode into the semiconductor substrate where it is absorbed by the creation of electron-hole pairs in the depletion region. This holds for all the wavelengths used here (all are shorter than the GaAs absorption edge) and across the thickness range of the Al electrodes (20-50 nm). Quantum efficiencies in the range 0.5-22% and enhancement factors of typically 7.5 were recorded in this investigation.

INTERPLAY OF CAF2 SUBSTRATE ROUGHENING AND FILM DEPOSITION RATE ON RADIATIVE SCATTERING OF SURFACE-PLASMON POLARITONS FROM AG FILMS

The radiative decay of surface plasmon polaritons has been investigated in an attempt to characterize the surface roughness of Ag films prepared under different conditions. The polaritons were excited by the method of attenuated total reflection of light. The films were deposited on the face of a 60-degrees BK-7 glass prism at a rate that was deliberately fixed in two different ranges (centred on 0.1 and 10 nm s-1) and in some cases a CaF2 underlayer was used to roughen the film surfaces. The intensity of the scattered light emitted from the opposite face of the films was measured as a function of direction for each using the same sensitivity scale and was correlated with the preparation of the film. It was found that on nominally smooth substrates fast-deposited thinner films give out more light and are deduced to have greater short wavelength (300-600 nm) roughness amplitude. There is also evidence for long wavelenth (7 mum) periodic roughness due to the prism substrate itself. On CaF2 roughened surfaces the light output from the films is further increased and the peak intensity is backward directed with respect to the exciting laser beam direction. Here roughness on a lateral scale of 350 nm is responsible. Also, elastic scattering of surface plasmon polaritons at grain boundaries reduces the light output from fast deposited, small grain, films on CaF2 roughened surfaces. Overall, a consistent picture of roughness induced radiative polariton decay emerges for all cases studied.

CHARACTERIZATION OF SURFACE-PLASMONS ON METAL-OXIDE-SEMICONDUCTOR STRUCTURES

Using the Otto (prism-air gap-sample) configuration p-polarized light of wavelength 632.8 nm has been coupled with greater than 80% efficiency to surface plasmons on the aluminium electrode of silicon-silicon dioxide-aluminium structures. The results show that if the average power per unit area dissipated on the metal film exceeds approximately 1 mW mm-2, then the coupling gap and thus the characteristics of the surface plasmon resonance are noticeably altered. In modelling the optical response of such systems the inclusion of both a non-uniform air coupling gap and a thin cermet layer at the aluminium surface may be necessary.

Prediction of surface roughness during hard turning of AISI 4340 steel (69 HRC)

In this study, 39 sets of hard turning (HT) experimental trials were performed on a Mori-Seiki SL-25Y (4-axis) computer numerical controlled (CNC) lathe to study the effect of cutting parameters in influencing the machined surface roughness. In all the trials, AISI 4340 steel workpiece (hardened up to 69 HRC) was machined with a commercially available CBN insert (Warren Tooling Limited, UK) under dry conditions. The surface topography of the machined samples was examined by using a white light interferometer and a reconfirmation of measurement was done using a Form Talysurf. The machining outcome was used as an input to develop various regression models to predict the average machined surface roughness on this material. Three regression models - Multiple regression, Random Forest, and Quantile regression were applied to the experimental outcomes. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to apply Random Forest or Quantile regression techniques to the machining domain. The performance of these models was compared to each other to ascertain how feed, depth of cut, and spindle speed affect surface roughness and finally to obtain a mathematical equation correlating these variables. It was concluded that the random forest regression model is a superior choice over multiple regression models for prediction of surface roughness during machining of AISI 4340 steel (69 HRC).

Air pollutant contamination and acidification of surface waters in the North York Moors, UK: Multi-proxy evidence from the sediments of a moorland pool

Despite the extensive geographical range of palaeolimnological studies designed to assess the extent of surface water acidification in the United Kingdom during the 1980s, little attention was paid to the status of surface waters in the North York Moors (NYM). In this paper, we present sediment core data from a moorland pool in the NYM that provide a record of air pollution contamination and surface water acidification. The 41-cm-long core was divided into three lithostratigraphic units. The lower two comprise peaty soils and peats, respectively, that date to between approximately 8080 and 6740 cal. BP. The uppermost unit comprises peaty lake muds dating from between approximately ad 1790 and the present day (ad 2006). The lower two units contain pollen dominated by forest taxa, whereas the uppermost unit contains pollen indicative of open landscape conditions similar to those of the present. Heavy metal, spheroidal carbonaceous particle, mineral magnetics and stable isotope analysis of the upper sediments show clear evidence of contamination by air pollutants derived from fossil-fuel combustion over the last c. 150years, and diatom analysis indicates that the naturally acidic pool became more acidic during the 20th century. We conclude that the exceptionally acidic surface waters of the pool at present (pH=c. 4.1) are the result of a long history of air pollution and not because of naturally acidic local conditions. We argue that the highly acidic surface waters elsewhere in the NYM are similarly acidified and that the lack of evidence of significant recovery from acidification, despite major reductions in the emissions of acidic gases that have taken place over the last c. 30years, indicates the continuing influence of pollutant sulphur stored in catchment peats, a legacy of over 150years of acid deposition.

Effects of resistive magnetic field on fast electron divergence measured in experiments

Transport of fast electrons driven by an ultraintense laser through a tracer layer buried in solid targets is studied by particle-in-cell simulations. It is found that intense resistive magnetic fields, having a magnitude of several thousand Tesla, are generated at the interfaces of the materials due to the steep resistivity gradient between the target and tracer layer. Such magnetic fields can significantly inhibit the fast electron propagation. The electrons that can penetrate the first interface are mostly confined in the buried layer by the magnetic fields and cause heating of the tracer layer. The lateral extent of the heated region can be significantly larger than that of the relativistic electron beam. This finding suggests that the relativistic electron divergence inferred from Ká x-ray emission in experiments might be overestimated.

Evaluation of the diagnostic potential of a novel field immunomagnetic separation-immunochromatographic lateral flow assay to detect Mycobacterium bovis cells in European badger (Meles meles) faeces

The European badger (Meles meles) is a natural reservoir for Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of Bovine Tuberculosis, and has consequently been implicated in transmission of the disease to cattle. This study describes application of a novel M. bovis-specific immunochromatographic (lateral flow) assay in combination with immunomagnetic separation (IMS-LFD), to test badger faeces samples. In total, 441 faeces samples from badgers of unknown disease status collected from latrines at 110 badger setts throughout Northern Ireland (NI) and 100 faeces samples from badgers of known infection status from Great Britain (GB) were tested. Faeces (approx. 1g) was homogenised in 9 ml phosphate buffered saline, filtered (70 µm), and then 6-8 ml subjected to the IMS-LFD test. Residual clarified faecal homogenates were subjected to automated IMS followed by MGIT™ liquid culture (AIMS-MGIT™ culture) and qPCR (AIMS-qPCR). Evidence for the presence of M. bovis was obtained for 78 (18%), 61 (14%) and 140 (32%) of 441 NI badger faeces samples, and 10 (10%), 41 (41%) and 56 (56%) of 100 GB badger faeces samples, by IMS-LFD, AIMS-MGIT culture and AIMS-qPCR tests, respectively. The IMS-LFD test was less sensitive than AIMS-qPCR for detection of M. bovis and was, therefore, detecting badgers shedding high numbers of M. bovis in their faeces only. However, these ‘super shedders’ may be primarily responsible for the spread of Bovine Tuberculosis so are, therefore, an important target. This non-invasive test could form the basis of a field surveillance tool to indicate infected badger groups which are actively spreading M. bovis.

On the analysis of inhomogeneous magnetic field spectrometer for laser-driven ion acceleration

We present a detailed study of the use of a non-parallel, inhomogeneous magnetic field spectrometer for the investigation of laser-accelerated ion beams. Employing a wedged yoke design, we demonstrate the feasibility of an in-situ self-calibration technique of the non-uniform magnetic field and show that high-precision measurements of ion energies are possible in a wide-angle configuration. We also discuss the implications of a stacked detector system for unambiguous identification of different ion species present in the ion beam and explore the feasibility of detection of high energy particles beyond 100 MeV/amu in radiation harsh environments.

The application of surface second harmonic sensor to probe laser induced modification of titanium dioxide

The effects of high power pulsed laser light on a TiO2 photocatalyst have been investigated using a surface second harmonic generation (SSHG) sensor. When TiO2 is irradiated with a laser at 355mm a visible change in colour from white to dark blue crystals was observed. X-ray diffraction studies indicate that the crystal structure of the TiO2 developed a more rutile form following laser exposure.

A methodology to analyse the impact of offshore wind forecasting error on electricity markets

Currently wind power is dominated by onshore wind farms in the British Isles, but both the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland have high renewable energy targets, expected to come mostly from wind power. However, as the demand for wind power grows to ensure security of energy supply, as a potentially cheaper alternative to fossil fuels and to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets offshore wind power will grow rapidly as the availability of suitable onshore sites decrease. However, wind is variable and stochastic by nature and thus difficult to schedule. In order to plan for these uncertainties market operators use wind forecasting tools, reserve plant and ancillary service agreements. Onshore wind power forecasting techniques have improved dramatically and continue to advance, but offshore wind power forecasting is more difficult due to limited datasets and knowledge. So as the amount of offshore wind power increases in the British Isles robust forecasting and planning techniques are even more critical. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of better offshore wind forecasting on the operation and management of the single wholesale electricity market in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland using PLEXOS for Power Systems. © 2013 IEEE.

A review of offshore wind power development in the United Kingdom

Currently wind power is dominated by onshore wind farms. However, as the demand for power grows driven by security of energy supply issues, dwindling fossil fuel supplies and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets, offshore wind power will develop rapidly because of the decline of viable onshore sites. The United Kingdom has a target of 21% renewable electricity by 2020 and this is expected to come mostly from wind power. Britain is the most active internationally in terms of offshore wind farm development with almost 48GW in some stage of development. In addition the Scottish Government, the Northern Ireland Executive and the Government of Ireland undertook the 'Irish-Scottish Links on Energy Study' (ISLES), which examined the feasibility of creating an offshore interconnected transmission network and subsea electricity grid based on renewable energy sources off the coast of western Scotland and the Irish Sea. The aim of this paper is to provide an appraisal of offshore wind power development with a focus on the United Kingdom. © 2013 IEEE.