Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues

Grazing is a major land use in Australia's rangelands. The 'safe' livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the 'best estimates' of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as 'known uncertainties' and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands ( including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the 'best estimate' projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1-5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections - including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables - if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of. re, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3 degrees C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e. g. -21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (-33% or -9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3 degrees C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the 'best estimate' of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

Predicting dispersal and recruitment of Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) in Australian tropical rainforests

Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) is a serious invader in the tropical Pacific, including the Hawaiian and Tahitian Islands, and currently poses a major threat to native biodiversity in the Wet Tropics of Australia. The species is fleshy-fruited, small-seeded and shade tolerant, and thus has the potential to be dispersed widely and recruit in relatively intact rainforest habitats, displacing native species. Understanding and predicting the rate of spread is critical for the design and implementation of effective management actions. We used an individual-based model incorporating a dispersal function derived from dispersal curves for similar berry-fruited native species, and life-history parameters of fecundity and mortality to predict the spatial structure of a Miconia population after a 30 year time period. We compared the modelled population spatial structure to that of an actual infestation in the rainforests of north Queensland. Our goal was to assess how well the model predicts actual dispersion and to identify potential barriers and conduits to seed movement and seedling establishment. The model overpredicts overall population size and the spatial extent of the actual infestation, predicting individuals to occur at a maximum 1,750 m from the source compared with the maximum distance of any detected individual in the actual infestation of 1,191 m. We identify several characteristic features of managed invasive populations that make comparisons between modelled outcomes and actual infestations difficult. Our results suggest that the model’s ability to predict both spatial structure and spread of the population will be improved by incorporating a spatially explicit element, with dispersal and recruitment probabilities that reflect the relative suitability of different parts of the landscape for these processes.

Genetics of heifer performance in 'wet' and 'dry' seasons and their relationships with steer performance in two tropical beef genotypes.

The genetics of heifer performance in tropical 'wet' and 'dry' seasons, and relationships with steer performance, were studied in Brahman (BRAH) and Tropical Composite (TCOMP) (50% Bos indicus, African Sanga or other tropically adapted Bos taurus; 50% non-tropically adapted Bos taurus) cattle of northern Australia. Data were from 2159 heifers (1027 BRAH, 1132 TCOMP), representing 54 BRAH and 51 TCOMP sires. Heifers were assessed after post-weaning 'wet' (ENDWET) and 'dry' (ENDDRY) seasons. Steers were assessed post-weaning, at feedlot entry, over a 70-day feed test, and after similar to 120-day finishing. Measures studied in both heifers and steers were liveweight (LWT), scanned rump fat, rib fat and M. longissimus area (SEMA), body condition score (CS), hip height (HH), serum insulin-like growth factor-I concentration (IGF-I), and average daily gains (ADG). Additional steer measures were scanned intra-muscular fat%, flight time, and daily (DFI) and residual feed intake (RFI). Uni- and bivariate analyses were conducted for combined genotypes and for individual genotypes. Genotype means were predicted for a subset of data involving 34 BRAH and 26 TCOMP sires. A meta-analysis of genetic correlation estimates examined how these were related to the difference between measurement environments for specific traits. There were genotype differences at the level of means, variances and genetic correlations. BRAH heifers were significantly (P < 0.05) faster-growing in the 'wet' season, slower-growing in the 'dry' season, lighter at ENDDRY, and taller and fatter with greater CS and IGF-I at both ENDWET and ENDDRY. Heritabilities were generally in the 20 to 60% range for both genotypes. Phenotypic and genetic variances, and genetic correlations, were commonly lower for BRAH. Differences were often explained by the long period of tropical adaptation of B. indicus. Genetic correlations were high between corresponding measures at ENDWET and ENDDRY, positive between fat and muscle measures in TCOMP but negative in BRAH (mean of 13 estimates 0.50 and -0.19, respectively), and approximately zero between steer feedlot ADG and heifer ADG in BRAH. Numerous genetic correlations between heifers and steers differed substantially from unity, especially in BRAH, suggesting there may be scope to select differently in the sexes where that would aid the differing roles of heifers and steers in production. Genetic correlations declined as measurement environments became more different, the rates of decline (environment sensitivity) sometimes differing with genotype. Similar measures (LWT, HH and ADG; IGF-I at ENDWET in TCOMP) were genetically correlated with steer DFI in heifers as in steers. Heifer SEMA was genetically correlated with steer feedlot RFI in BRAH (0.75 +/- 0.27 at ENDWET, 0.66 +/- 0.24 at ENDDRY). Selection to reduce steer RFI would reduce SEMA in BRAH heifers but otherwise have only small effects on heifers before their first joining.

Genetics of heifer puberty in two tropical beef genotypes in northern Australia and associations with heifer- and steer-production traits

A total of 2115 heifers from two tropical genotypes (1007 Brahman and 1108 Tropical Composite) raised in four locations in northern Australia were ovarian-scanned every 4-6 weeks to determine the age at the first-observed corpus luteum (CL) and this was used to de. ne the age at puberty for each heifer. Other traits recorded at each time of ovarian scanning were liveweight, fat depths and body condition score. Reproductive tract size was measured close to the start of the first joining period. Results showed significant effects of location and birth month on the age at first CL and associated puberty traits. Genotypes did not differ significantly for the age or weight at first CL; however, Brahman were fatter at first CL and had a small reproductive tract size compared with that of Tropical Composite. Genetic analyses estimated the age at first CL to be moderately to highly heritable for Brahman (0.57) and Tropical Composite (0.52). The associated traits were also moderately heritable, except for reproductive tract size in Brahmans (0.03) and for Tropical Composite, the presence of an observed CL on the scanning day closest to the start of joining (0.07). Genetic correlations among puberty traits were mostly moderate to high and generally larger in magnitude for Brahman than for Tropical Composite. Genetic correlations between the age at CL and heifer- and steer-production traits showed important genotype differences. For Tropical Composite, the age at CL was negatively correlated with the heifer growth rate in their first postweaning wet season (-0.40) and carcass marbling score (-0.49), but was positively correlated with carcass P8 fat depth (0.43). For Brahman, the age at CL was moderately negatively genetically correlated with heifer measures of bodyweight, fatness, body condition score and IGF-I, in both their first postweaning wet and second dry seasons, but was positively correlated with the dry-season growth rate. For Brahman, genetic correlations between the age at CL and steer traits showed possible antagonisms with feedlot residual feed intake (-0.60) and meat colour (0.73). Selection can be used to change the heifer age at puberty in both genotypes, with few major antagonisms with steer- and heifer- production traits.

Neighbourliness and Australia’s contribution to regional migration strategies for climate displacement in the Pacific

The prospect of widespread displacement in the Pacific as a result of climate change is becoming increasingly likely and it is possible that many will eventually need to relocate to other countries. Regional migration strategies not only offer the potential to minimise the harms of relocation, while acknowledging existing relationships of friendship and regional cooperation. This article examines the use of the language of ‘neighbourliness’ in Australia’s regional climate change strategies and argues that, while it expresses friendship, such language can also be employed to avoid the creation of stronger obligations. The article considers the international doctrine of good neighbourliness and concludes that, while international legal obligations may not yet exist, Australia should nonetheless begin planning for regional migration within the Pacific to allow people to migrate with dignity.

Cassowary dispersal of the invasive pond apple in a tropical rainforest: the contribution of subordinate dispersal modes in invasion.

Dispersal is a significant determinant of the pattern and process of invasions; however, weed dispersal distances are rarely described and descriptions of dispersal kernels are completely lacking for vertebrate-dispersed weeds. Here, we describe dispersal kernels generated by a native disperser, the endangered southern cassowary (Casuarius casuarius, L.) for an invasive, tropical rainforest plant, pond apple (Annona glabra, L.). Pond apple is primarily water-dispersed and is managed as such. We consider whether cassowary dispersal, as a numerically subordinate dispersal mode, provides an additional dispersal service that may modify the invasion process. In infested areas, pond apple seed was common in cassowary dung. Gut passage had no effect on the probability of single seed germination but deposition in clumps or as whole fruits reduced the probability of germination below that of single seeds. Gut passage times ranged from 65 to 1675 min. Combined with cassowary movement data, this resulted in estimated dispersal distances of 12.5-5212 m, with a median distance of 387 m (quartile range 112-787 m). Native frugivores can be effective dispersers of weeds in rainforest and even terrestrial dispersers can provide long-distance dispersal. Importantly, though pond apple might be expected to be almost entirely dispersed downstream and along the margins of aquatic and marine habitats, cassowaries provide dispersal upstream and between drainages, leading to novel dispersal outcomes. Even through the provision of small quantities of novel dispersal outcomes, subordinate dispersal modes can play a significant role in determining invasion pattern and influence the ultimate success of control programs by providing dispersal to locations unattainable via the primary mode.

The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia

The complexity, variability and vastness of the northern Australian rangelands make it difficult to assess the risks associated with climate change. In this paper we present a methodology to help industry and primary producers assess risks associated with climate change and to assess the effectiveness of adaptation options in managing those risks. Our assessment involved three steps. Initially, the impacts and adaptation responses were documented in matrices by ‘experts’ (rangeland and climate scientists). Then, a modified risk management framework was used to develop risk management matrices that identified important impacts, areas of greatest vulnerability (combination of potential impact and adaptive capacity) and priority areas for action at the industry level. The process was easy to implement and useful for arranging and analysing large amounts of information (both complex and interacting). Lastly, regional extension officers (after minimal ‘climate literacy’ training) could build on existing knowledge provided here and implement the risk management process in workshops with rangeland land managers. Their participation is likely to identify relevant and robust adaptive responses that are most likely to be included in regional and property management decisions. The process developed here for the grazing industry could be modified and used in other industries and sectors. By 2030, some areas of northern Australia will experience more droughts and lower summer rainfall. This poses a serious threat to the rangelands. Although the impacts and adaptive responses will vary between ecological and geographic systems, climate change is expected to have noticeable detrimental effects: reduced pasture growth and surface water availability; increased competition from woody vegetation; decreased production per head (beef and wool) and gross margin; and adverse impacts on biodiversity. Further research and development is needed to identify the most vulnerable regions, and to inform policy in time to facilitate transitional change and enable land managers to implement those changes.

Climate change effects on pasture systems in south-eastern Australia.

Climate change projections for Australia predict increasing temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The aims of this study were to predict plant production responses to elevated CO2 concentrations using the SGS Pasture Model and DairyMod, and then to quantify the effects of climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 on predicted pasture growth, species composition, and soil moisture conditions of 5 existing pasture systems in climates ranging from cool temperate to subtropical, relative to a historical baseline. Three future climate scenarios were created for each site by adjusting historical climate data according to temperature and rainfall change projections for 2030, 2070 mid-and 2070 high-emission scenarios, using output from the CSIRO Mark 3 global climate model. In the absence of other climate changes, mean annual pasture production at an elevated CO2 concentration of 550 ppm was predicted to be 24-29% higher than at 380 ppm CO2 in temperate (C-3) species-dominant pastures in southern Australia, with lower mean responses in a mixed C-3/C-4 pasture at Barraba in northern New South Wales (17%) and in a C-4 pasture at Mutdapilly in south-eastern Queensland (9%). In the future climate scenarios at the Barraba and Mutdapilly sites in subtropical and subhumid climates, respectively, where climate projections indicated warming of up to 4.4 degrees C, with little change in annual rainfall, modelling predicted increased pasture production and a shift towards C-4 species dominance. In Mediterranean, temperate, and cool temperate climates, climate change projections indicated warming of up to 3.3 degrees C, with annual rainfall reduced by up to 28%. Under future climate scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, and Ellinbank, Victoria, our study predicted increased winter and early spring pasture growth rates, but this was counteracted by a predicted shorter spring growing season, with annual pasture production higher than the baseline under the 2030 climate scenario, but reduced by up to 19% under the 2070 high scenario. In a cool temperate environment at Elliott, Tasmania, annual production was higher than the baseline in all 3 future climate scenarios, but highest in the 2070 mid scenario. At the Wagga Wagga, Ellinbank, and Elliott sites the effect of rainfall declines on pasture production was moderated by a predicted reduction in drainage below the root zone and, at Ellinbank, the use of deeper rooted plant systems was shown to be an effective adaptation to mitigate some of the effect of lower rainfall.

Developing sustainable banana production systems: a case study from tropical Australia

The north Queensland banana industry is under pressure from government and community expectations to exhibit good environmental stewardship. The industry is situated on the high-rainfall north Queensland coast adjacent to 2 natural icons, the Great Barrier Reef to the east and World Heritage-listed rain forest areas to the west. The main environmental concern is agricultural industry pollutants harming the Great Barrier Reef. In addition to environmental issues the banana industry also suffers financial pressure from declining margins and production loss from tropical cyclones. As part of a broader government strategy to reduce land-based pollutants affecting the Great Barrier Reef, the formation of a pilot banana producers group to address these environmental and economic pressures was facilitated. Using an integrated farming systems approach, we worked collaboratively with these producers to conduct an environmental risk assessment of their businesses and then to develop best management practices (BMP) to address environmental concerns. We also sought input from technical experts to provide increased rigour for the environmental risk assessment and BMP development. The producers' commercial experience ensured new ideas for improved sustainable practices were constantly assessed through their profit-driven 'filter' thus ensuring economic sustainability was also considered. Relying heavily on the producers' knowledge and experience meant the agreed sustainable practices were practical, relevant and financially feasible for the average-sized banana business in the region. Expert input and review also ensured that practices were technically sound. The pilot group producers then implemented and adapted selected key practices on their farms. High priority practices addressed by the producers group included optimizing nitrogen fertilizer management to reduce runoff water nitrification, developing practical ground cover management to reduce soil erosion and improving integrated pest management systems to reduce pesticide use. To facilitate wider banana industry understanding and adoption of the BMP's developed by the pilot group, we conducted field days at the farms of the pilot group members. Information generated by the pilot group has had wider application to Australian horticulture and the process has been subsequently used with the north Queensland sugar industry. Our experiences have shown that integrated farming systems methodologies are useful in addressing complex issues like environmental and economic sustainability. We have also found that individual horticulture businesses need on-going technical support for change to more sustainable practices. One-off interventions have little impact, as farm improvement is usually an on-going incremental process. A key lesson from this project has been the need to develop practical, farm scale economic tools to clarify and demonstrate the financial impact of alternative management practices. Demonstrating continued profitability is critical to encourage widespread industry adoption of environmentally sustainable practices

Seasonal changes in pasture quality and diet selection and their relationship with liveweight gain of steers grazing tropical grass and grass-legume pastures in northern Australia.

The variation in liveweight gain in grazing beef cattle as influenced by pasture type, season and year effects has important economic implications for mixed crop-livestock systems and the ability to better predict such variation would benefit beef producers by providing a guide for decision making. To identify key determinants of liveweight change of Brahman-cross steers grazing subtropical pastures, measurements of pasture quality and quantity, and diet quality in parallel with liveweight were made over two consecutive grazing seasons (48 and 46 weeks, respectively), on mixed Clitoria ternatea/grass, Stylosanthes seabrana/grass and grass swards (grass being a mixture of Bothriochloa insculpta cv. Bisset, Dichanthium sericeum and Panicum maximum var. trichoglume cv. Petrie). Steers grazing the legume-based pastures had the highest growth rate and gained between 64 and 142 kg more than those grazing the grass pastures in under 12 months. Using an exponential model, green leaf mass, green leaf %, adjusted green leaf % (adjusted for inedible woody legume stems), faecal near infrared reflectance spectroscopy predictions of diet crude protein and diet dry matter digestibility, accounted for 77, 74, 80, 63 and 60%, respectively, of the variation in daily weight gain when data were pooled across pasture types and grazing seasons. The standard error of the regressions indicated that 95% prediction intervals were large (+/- 0.42-0.64 kg/head.day) suggesting that derived regression relationships have limited practical application for accurately estimating growth rate. In this study, animal factors, especially compensatory growth effects, appeared to have a major influence on growth rate in relation to pasture and diet attributes. It was concluded that predictions of growth rate based only on pasture or diet attributes are unlikely to be accurate or reliable. Nevertheless, key pasture attributes such as green leaf mass and green leaf% provide a robust indication of what proportion of the potential growth rate of the grazing animals can be achieved.

Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Temperature and Salinity Tolerances of the Tropical Spiny Lobster, Panulirus ornatus

Interest in the development of aquaculture of the tropical spiny lobster, Panulirus ornatus, has increased markedly over the past 10 yr because of strong market demand and high prices. In Australia, economic conditions will necessitate that a semi-intensive approach be taken, possibly involving managed environmental conditions. Identification of optimal temperature and salinity levels will be necessary, and therefore two experiments were performed to examine these two parameters. Juvenile lobsters were grown in tanks at five temperatures (19, 22, 25, 28 and 31 C). Growth was significantly affected by temperature (P < 0.01), and maximal growth occurred at 25-31 C. Examination of the temperature effect on molt increment and intermolt period indicated that 27 C was the optimal temperature, at which molt increment was greatest and intermolt period the least. Temperature also had a significant (P < 0.01) positive effect on apparent feed intake (AFI). Juvenile lobsters were also exposed to four different salinities (20, 25, 30 and 35 ppt) over a period of 91 d. Significant differences (P < 0.01) were apparent for both survival and growth. Lowest survival occurred at 35 ppt which may be attributable to higher cannibalism at that salinity. Growth was highest at 35 ppt and progressively less at lower salinities. Although full marine salinity (35 ppt) will generate best performance of P. ornatus, its capacity to tolerate reduced salinity will provide greater opportunity to develop commercial aquaculture.

Tropical Banana Information Kit. Agrilink, your growing guide to better farming guide

Each Agrilink kit has been designed to be both comprehensive and practical. As the kits are arranged to answer questions of increasing complexity, they are useful references for both new and experienced producers of specific crops. Agrilink integrates the technology of horticultural production with the management of horticultural enterprises. REPRINT INFORMATION - PLEASE READ! For updated information please call 13 25 23 or visit the website www.deedi.qld.gov.au (Select: Queensland Industries – Agriculture link) This publication has been reprinted as a digital book without any changes to the content published in 1998.. We advise readers to take particular note of the areas most likely to be out-of-date and so requiring further research: see detailed information on first page of the kit. Even with these limitations we believe this information kit provides important and valuable information for intending and existing growers. This publication was last revised in 1998. The information is not current and the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed by the State of Queensland. This information has been made available to assist users to identify issues involved in the production of tropical bananas. This information is not to be used or relied upon by users for any purpose which may expose the user or any other person to loss or damage. Users should conduct their own inquiries and rely on their own independent professional advice. While every care has been taken in preparing this publication, the State of Queensland accepts no responsibility for decisions or actions taken as a result of any data, information, statement or advice, expressed or implied, contained in this publication.