Tax evasion, inequality, and progressive taxes : a political economy perspective

The standard approach to tax compliance applies the economics-of-crime methodology pioneered by Becker (1968): in its first application, due to Allingham and Sandmo (1972) it models the behaviour of agents as a decision involving a choice of the extent of their income to report to tax authorities, given a certain institutional environment, represented by parameters such as the probability of detection and penalties in the event the agent is caught. While this basic framework yields important insights on tax compliance behavior, it has some critical limitations. Specifically, it indicates a level of compliance that is significantly below what is observed in the data. This thesis revisits the original framework with a view towards addressing this issue, and examining the political economy implications of tax evasion for progressivity in the tax structure. The approach followed involves building a macroeconomic, dynamic equilibrium model for the purpose of examining these issues, by using a step-wise model building procedure starting with some very simple variations of the basic Allingham and Sandmo construct, which are eventually integrated to a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations framework with heterogeneous agents. One of the variations involves incorporating the Allingham and Sandmo construct into a two-period model of a small open economy of the type originally attributed to Fisher (1930). A further variation of this simple construct involves allowing agents to initially decide whether to evade taxes or not. In the event they decide to evade, the agents then have to decide the extent of income or wealth they wish to under-report. We find that the ‘evade or not’ assumption has strikingly different and more realistic implications for the extent of evasion, and demonstrate that it is a more appropriate modeling strategy in the context of macroeconomic models, which are essentially dynamic in nature, and involve consumption smoothing across time and across various states of nature. Specifically, since deciding to undertake tax evasion impacts on the consumption smoothing ability of the agent by creating two states of nature in which the agent is ‘caught’ or ‘not caught’, there is a possibility that their utility under certainty, when they choose not to evade, is higher than the expected utility obtained when they choose to evade. Furthermore, the simple two-period model incorporating an ‘evade or not’ choice can be used to demonstrate some strikingly different political economy implications relative to its Allingham and Sandmo counterpart. In variations of the two models that allow for voting on the tax parameter, we find that agents typically choose to vote for a high degree of progressivity by choosing the highest available tax rate from the menu of choices available to them. There is, however, a small range of inequality levels for which agents in the ‘evade or not’ model vote for a relatively low value of the tax rate. The final steps in the model building procedure involve grafting the two-period models with a political economy choice into a dynamic overlapping generations setting with more general, non-linear tax schedules and a ‘cost-of evasion’ function that is increasing in the extent of evasion. Results based on numerical simulations of these models show further improvement in the model’s ability to match empirically plausible levels of tax evasion. In addition, the differences between the political economy implications of the ‘evade or not’ version of the model and its Allingham and Sandmo counterpart are now very striking; there is now a large range of values of the inequality parameter for which agents in the ‘evade or not’ model vote for a low degree of progressivity. This is because, in the ‘evade or not’ version of the model, low values of the tax rate encourages a large number of agents to choose the ‘not-evade’ option, so that the redistributive mechanism is more ‘efficient’ relative to the situations in which tax rates are high. Some further implications of the models of this thesis relate to whether variations in the level of inequality, and parameters such as the probability of detection and penalties for tax evasion matter for the political economy results. We find that (i) the political economy outcomes for the tax rate are quite insensitive to changes in inequality, and (ii) the voting outcomes change in non-monotonic ways in response to changes in the probability of detection and penalty rates. Specifically, the model suggests that changes in inequality should not matter, although the political outcome for the tax rate for a given level of inequality is conditional on whether there is a large or small or large extent of evasion in the economy. We conclude that further theoretical research into macroeconomic models of tax evasion is required to identify the structural relationships underpinning the link between inequality and redistribution in the presence of tax evasion. The models of this thesis provide a necessary first step in that direction.

Of castles and fairytales

1,000-word travel article describing a journey on the Moselle River in Germany. "Step back in time with Germany’s historical landmarks along the country’s beautiful Mosel River, writes Kari Gislason"--publisher website

Encouraging, assisting and time to EAT : improved nutritional intake for older medical patients receiving Protected Mealtimes and/or additional nursing feeding assistance

Background & Aims: Inadequate feeding assistance and mealtime interruptions during hospitalisation may contribute to malnutrition and poor nutritional intake in older people. This study aimed to implement and compare three interventions designed to specifically address mealtime barriers and improve energy intakes of medical inpatients aged ≥65 years. Methods: Pre-post study compared three mealtime assistance interventions: PM: Protected Mealtimes with multidisciplinary education; AIN: additional assistant-in-nursing (AIN) with dedicated meal role; PM+AIN: combined intervention. Dietary intake of 254 patients (pre: n=115, post: n=141; mean age 80±8) was visually estimated on a single day in the first week of hospitalisation and compared with estimated energy requirements. Assistance activities were observed and recorded. Results: Mealtime assistance levels significantly increased in all interventions (p<0.01). Post-intervention participants were more likely to achieve adequate energy intake (OR=3.4, p=0.01), with no difference noted between interventions (p=0.29). Patients with cognitive impairment or feeding dependency appeared to gain substantial benefit from mealtime assistance interventions. Conclusions: Protected Mealtimes and additional AIN assistance (implemented alone or in combination) may produce modest improvements in nutritional intake. Targeted feeding assistance for certain patient groups holds promise; however, alternative strategies are required to address the complex problem of malnutrition in this population.

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Is it time to revisit the problem young driver?

For decades there have been two young driver concepts: the „young driver problem‟ where the driver cohort represents a key problem for road safety; and the „problem young driver‟ where a sub-sample of drivers represents the greatest road safety problem. Given difficulties associated with identifying and then modifying the behaviour of the latter group, broad countermeasures such as graduated driver licensing (GDL) have generally been relied upon to address the young driver problem. GDL evaluations reveal general road safety benefits for young drivers, yet they continue to be overrepresented in fatality and injury statistics. Therefore it is timely for researchers revisit the problem young driver concept to assess its potential countermeasure implications. Personal characteristics, behaviours and attitudes of 378 Queensland novice drivers aged 17-25 years were explored during their pre-, Learner and Provisional 1 (intermediate) licence as part of a larger longitudinal research project. Self-reported risky driving was measured by the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale (BYNDS), and five subscale scores were used to cluster the drivers into three groups (high risk n = 49, medium risk n = 163, low risk n = 166). High risk „problem young‟ drivers were characterised by self-reported pre-Licence driving, unsupervised Learner driving, and speeding, driving errors, risky driving exposure, crash involvement, and offence detection during the Provisional period. Medium risk drivers were also characterised by more risky road use behaviours than the low risk group. Interestingly problem young drivers appear to have some insight into their high-risk driving, and they report significantly greater intentions to bend road rules in future driving. The results suggest that in addition to broad countermeasures such as GDL which target the young driver problem, tailored intervention efforts may need to target problem young drivers. Driving behaviours and crash-involvement could be used to identify these drivers as pre-intervention screening measures.

The impact of a model of nurse education to improve knowledge and recognition of delirium in older persons by registered nurses

Introduction: Delirium is a serious issue associated with high morbidity and mortality in older hospitalised people. Early recognition enables diagnosis and treatment of underlying cause/s, which can lead to improved patient outcomes. However, research shows knowledge and accurate nurse recognition of delirium and is poor and lack of education appears to be a key issue related to this problem. Thus, the purpose of this randomised controlled trial (RCT) was to evaluate, in a sample of registered nurses, the usability and effectiveness of a web-based learning site, designed using constructivist learning principles, to improve acute care nurse knowledge and recognition of delirium. Prior to undertaking the RCT preliminary phases involving; validation of vignettes, video-taping five of the validated vignettes, website development and pilot testing were completed. Methods: The cluster RCT involved consenting registered nurse participants (N = 175) from twelve clinical areas within three acute health care facilities in Queensland, Australia. Data were collected through a variety of measures and instruments. Primary outcomes were improved ability of nurses to recognise delirium using written validated vignettes and improved knowledge of delirium using a delirium knowledge questionnaire. The secondary outcomes were aimed at determining nurse satisfaction and usability of the website. Primary outcome measures were taken at baseline (T1), directly after the intervention (T2) and two months later (T3). The secondary outcomes were measured at T2 by participants in the intervention group. Following baseline data collection remaining participants were assigned to either the intervention (n=75) or control (n=72) group. Participants in the intervention group were given access to the learning intervention while the control group continued to work in their clinical area and at that time, did not receive access to the learning intervention. Data from the primary outcome measures were examined in mixed model analyses. Results: Overall, the effect of the online learning intervention over time comparing the intervention group and the control group were positive. The intervention groups‘ scores were higher and the change over time results were statistically significant [T3 and T1 (t=3.78 p=<0.001) and T2 and T1 baseline (t=5.83 p=<0.001)]. Statistically significant improvements were also seen for delirium recognition when comparing T2 and T1 results (t=2.58 p=0.012) between the control and intervention group but not for changes in delirium recognition scores between the two groups from T3 and T1 (t=1.80 p=0.074). The majority of the participants rated the website highly on the visual, functional and content elements. Additionally, nearly 80% of the participants liked the overall website features and there were self-reported improvements in delirium knowledge and recognition by the registered nurses in the intervention group. Discussion: Findings from this study support the concept that online learning is an effective and satisfying method of information delivery. Embedded within a constructivist learning environment the site produced a high level of satisfaction and usability for the registered nurse end-users. Additionally, the results showed that the website significantly improved delirium knowledge & recognition scores and the improvement in delirium knowledge was retained at a two month follow-up. Given the strong effect of the intervention the online delirium intervention should be utilised as a way of providing information to registered nurses. It is envisaged that this knowledge would lead to improved recognition of delirium as well as improvement in patient outcomes however; translation of this knowledge attainment into clinical practice was outside the scope of this study. A critical next step is demonstrating the effect of the intervention in changing clinical behaviour, and improving patient health outcomes.

Ionic liquid pre-treatment and fractionation of sugarcane bagasse for the production of bioethanol

Pretretament is an essential and expensive processing step for the manufacturing of ethanol from lignocellulosic raw materials. Ionic liquids are a new class of solvents that have the potential to be used as pretreatment agents. The attractive characteristics of ionic liquid pretreatment of lignocellulosics such as thermal stability, dissolution properties, fractionation potential, cellulose decrystallisation capacity and saccharification impact are investigated in this thesis. Dissolution of bagasse with 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride ([C4mim]Cl) at high temperatures (110 �‹C to 160 �‹C) is investigated as a pretreatment process. Material balances are reported and used along with enzymatic saccharification data to identify optimum pretreatment conditions (150 �‹C for 90 min). At these conditions, the dissolved and reprecipitated material is enriched in cellulose, has a low crystallinity and the cellulose component is efficiently hydrolysed (93 %, 3 h, 15 FPU). At pretreatment temperatures < 150 �‹C, the undissolved material has only slightly lower crystallinity than the starting. At pretreatment temperatures . 150 �‹C, the undissolved material has low crystallinity and when combined with the dissolved material has a saccharification rate and extent similar to completely dissolved material (100 %, 3h, 15 FPU). Complete dissolution is not necessary to maximize saccharification efficiency at temperatures . 150 �‹C. Fermentation of [C4mim]Cl-pretreated, enzyme-saccharified bagasse to ethanol is successfully conducted (85 % molar glucose-to-ethanol conversion efficiency). As compared to standard dilute acid pretreatment, the optimised [C4mim]Cl pretreatment achieves substantially higher ethanol yields (79 % cf. 52 %) in less than half the processing time (pretreatment, saccharification, fermentation). Fractionation of bagasse partially dissolved in [C4mim]Cl to a polysaccharide rich and a lignin rich fraction is attempted using aqueous biphasic systems (ABSs) and single phase systems with preferential precipitation. ABSs of ILs and concentrated aqueous inorganic salt solutions are achievable (e.g. [C4mim]Cl with 200 g L-1 NaOH), albeit they exhibit a number of technical problems including phase convergence (which increases with increasing biomass loading) and deprotonation of imidazolium ILs (5 % - 8 % mol). Single phase fractionation systems comprising lignin solvents / cellulose antisolvents, viz. NaOH (2M) and acetone in water (1:1, volume basis), afford solids with, respectively, 40 % mass and 29 % mass less lignin than water precipitated solids. However, this delignification imparts little increase in saccharification rates and extents of these solids. An alternative single phase fractionation system is achieved simply by using water as an antisolvent. Regulating the water : IL ratio results in a solution that precipitates cellulose and maintains lignin in solution (0.5 water : IL mass ratio) in both [C4mim]Cl and 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium acetate ([C2mim]OAc)). This water based fractionation is applied in three IL pretreatments on bagasse ([C4mim]Cl, 1-ethyl-3-methyl imidazolium chloride ([C2mim]Cl) and [C2mim]OAc). Lignin removal of 10 %, 50 % and 60 % mass respectively is achieved although only 0.3 %, 1.5 % and 11.7 % is recoverable even after ample water addition (3.5 water : IL mass ratio) and acidification (pH . 1). In addition the recovered lignin fraction contains 70 % mass hemicelluloses. The delignified, cellulose-rich bagasse recovered from these three ILs is exposed to enzyme saccharification. The saccharification (24 h, 15 FPU) of the cellulose mass in starting bagasse, achieved by these pretreatments rank as: [C2mim]OAc (83 %)>>[C2mim]Cl (53 %)=[C4mim]Cl(53%). Mass balance determinations accounted for 97 % of starting bagasse mass for the [C4mim]Cl pretreatment , 81 % for [C2mim]Cl and 79 %for [C2mim]OAc. For all three IL treatments, the remaining bagasse mass (not accounted for by mass balance determinations) is mainly (more than half) lignin that is not recoverable from the liquid fraction. After pretreatment, 100 % mass of both ions of all three ILs were recovered in the liquid fraction. Compositional characteristics of [C2mim]OAc treated solids such as low lignin, low acetyl group content and preservation of arabinosyl groups are opposite to those of chloride IL treated solids. The former biomass characteristics resemble those imparted by aqueous alkali pretreatment while the latter resemble those of aqueous acid pretreatments. The 100 % mass recovery of cellulose in [C2mim]OAc as opposed to 53 % mass recovery in [C2mim]Cl further demonstrates this since the cellulose glycosidic bonds are protected under alkali conditions. The alkyl chain length decrease in the imidazolium cation of these ILs imparts higher rates of dissolution and losses, and increases the severity of the treatment without changing the chemistry involved.

Pore formation during dehydration of polycrystalline gypsum observed and quantified in a time-series synchrotron radiation based X-ray micro-tomography experiment

We conducted an in-situ X-ray micro-computed tomography heating experiment at the Advanced Photon Source (USA) to dehydrate an unconfined 2.3 mm diameter cylinder of Volterra Gypsum. We used a purpose-built X-ray transparent furnace to heat the sample to 388 K for a total of 310 min to acquire a three-dimensional time-series tomography dataset comprising nine time steps. The voxel size of 2.2 μm3 proved sufficient to pinpoint reaction initiation and the organization of drainage architecture in space and time. We observed that dehydration commences across a narrow front, which propagates from the margins to the centre of the sample in more than four hours. The advance of this front can be fitted with a square-root function, implying that the initiation of the reaction in the sample can be described as a diffusion process. Novel parallelized computer codes allow quantifying the geometry of the porosity and the drainage architecture from the very large tomographic datasets (20483 voxels) in unprecedented detail. We determined position, volume, shape and orientation of each resolvable pore and tracked these properties over the duration of the experiment. We found that the pore-size distribution follows a power law. Pores tend to be anisotropic but rarely crack-shaped and have a preferred orientation, likely controlled by a pre-existing fabric in the sample. With on-going dehydration, pores coalesce into a single interconnected pore cluster that is connected to the surface of the sample cylinder and provides an effective drainage pathway. Our observations can be summarized in a model in which gypsum is stabilized by thermal expansion stresses and locally increased pore fluid pressures until the dehydration front approaches to within about 100 μm. Then, the internal stresses are released and dehydration happens efficiently, resulting in new pore space. Pressure release, the production of pores and the advance of the front are coupled in a feedback loop.

Accountable-eHealth systems : the next step forward for privacy

EHealth systems promise enviable benefits and capabilities for healthcare. But, the technologies that make these capabilities possible brings with them undesirable drawback such as information security related threats which need to be appropriately addressed. Lurking in these threats are patient privacy concerns. Fulfilling these privacy concerns have proven to be difficult since they often conflict with information requirements of care providers. It is important to achieve a proper balance between these requirements. We believe that information accountability can achieve this balance. In this paper we introduce accountable-eHealth systems. We will discuss how our designed protocols can successfully address the aforementioned requirement. We will also compare characteristics of AeH systems with Australia’s PCEHR system and identify similarities and highlight the differences and the impact those differences would have to the eHealth domain.

Nitrous oxide emissions from subtropical horticultural soils : a time series analysis

Time series regression models were used to examine the influence of environmental factors (soil water content and soil temperature) on the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from subtropical soils, by taking into account temporal lagged environmental factors, autoregressive processes, and seasonality for three horticultural crops in a subtropical region of Australia. Fluxes of N2O, soil water content, and soil temperature were determined simultaneously on a weekly basis over a 12-month period in South East Queensland. Annual N2O emissions for soils under mango, pineapple, and custard apple were 1590, 1156, and 2038 g N2O-N/ha, respectively, with most emissions attributed to nitrification. The N2O-N emitted from the pineapple and custard apple crops was equivalent to 0.26 and 2.22%, respectively, of the applied mineral N. The change in soil water content was the key variable for describing N2O emissions at the weekly time-scale, with soil temperature at a lag of 1 month having a significant influence on average N2O emissions (averaged) at the monthly time-scale across the three crops. After accounting for soil temperature and soil water content, both the weekly and monthly time series regression models exhibited significant autocorrelation at lags of 1–2 weeks and 1–2 months, and significant seasonality for weekly N2O emissions for mango crop and for monthly N2O emissions for mango and custard apple crops in this location over this time-frame. Time series regression models can explain a higher percentage of the temporal variation of N2O emission compared with simple regression models using soil temperature and soil water content as drivers. Taking into account seasonal variability and temporal persistence in N2O emissions associated with soil water content and soil temperature may lead to a reduction in the uncertainty surrounding estimates of N2O emissions based on limited sampling effort.

Complicated working time arrangements : construction industry case study

This paper extends the understanding of working-time changes and work-life balance (WLB) through analyzing a case study where a reduction in working hours designed to assist the workforce in balancing work and nonwork life was implemented. An alliance project in the Australian construction industry was established initially with a 5-day working week, a departure from the industry-standard 6-day week. However, a range of factors complicated the success of this initiative, and the industry-standard 6-day working week was reinstated for the project. The authors argue that this case is valuable in determining the complex mix of influences that work against a wholesale or straightforward adoption of working-time adjustments and work-life balance practices. It is concluded that although the prevailing workplace culture is considered an important factor in the determination of working time, structural and workplace principles and practices may also be critical in working to secure the successful introduction of working-time reduction and work-life balance initiatives in the construction industry in the future.

Productivity and time use during occupational therapy and nutrition/dietetics clinical education : a cohort study

Background: Currently in the Australian higher education sector higher productivity from allied health clinical education placements are a contested issue. This paper will report results of a study that investigated output changes associated with occupational therapy and nutrition/dietetics clinical education placements in Queensland, Australia. Supervisors’ and students’ time use during placements and how this changes for supervisors compared to when students are not present in the workplace is also presented. Methodology/Principal Findings: A cohort design was used with students from four Queensland universities, and their supervisors employed by Queensland Health. There was an increasing trend in the number of occasions of service delivered when the students were present, and a statistically significant increase in the daily mean length of occasions of service delivered during the placement compared to pre-placement levels. For project-based placements that were not directly involved in patient care, supervisors’ project activity time decreased during placements, with students undertaking considerably more time in project activities. Conclusions/Significance: A novel method for estimating productivity and time use changes during clinical education programs for allied health disciplines has been applied. During clinical education placements there was a net increase in outputs, suggesting supervisors engage in longer consultations with patients for the purpose of training students, while maintaining patient numbers. Other activities are reduced. This paper is the first time these data have been shown and form a good basis for future assessments of the economic impact of student placements for allied health disciplines.