On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly timevarying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads’ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.

The Growth in Inter-connectedness in the Scottish Economy 1998-2007; a disaggregated analysis.

The measurement of inter-connectedness in an economy using input-output tables is not new, however much of the previous literature has not had any explicit dynamic dimension. Studies have tried to estimate the degree of inter-relatedness for an economy at a given point in time using one input-output table, some have compared different economies at a point in time but few have looked at the question of how interconnectedness within an economy changes over time. The publication in 2010 of a consistent series of input-output tables for Scotland offers the researcher the opportunity to track changes in the degree of inter-connectedness over the seven year period 1998 to 2007. The paper is in two parts. A simple measure of inter-connectedness is introduced in the first part of the paper and applied to the Scottish tables. In the second part of the paper an extraction method is applied to sector by sector to the tables in order to estimate how interconnectedness has changed over time for each industrial sector.

Structures and failure mechanisms analysis of Turtle Mountain

The 30 M m3 rockslide that occurred on the east face of Turtle Mountain in the Crowsnest Pass area (Alberta) in 1903 is one of the most famous landslides in the world. In this paper, the structural features of the South part of Turtle Mountain are investigated in order to understand the present-day scar morphology and to identify the most important failure mechanisms. The structural features were mapped using a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM) in order to have a large overview of the relevant structural features. At the same time, a field survey was carried out and small scale fractures were analyzed in different parts of southern Turtle Mountain in order to confirm the DEM analysis. Results allow to identify six main discontinuity sets that influence the Turtle Mountain morphology. These discontinuity sets were then used to identify the potential failure mechanisms affecting Third Peak and South Peak area.

The Committee on Climate Change: A policy analysis

Domestic action on climate change is increasingly important in the light of the difficulties with international agreements and requires a combination of solutions, in terms of institutions and policy instruments. One way of achieving government carbon policy goals may be the creation of an independent body to advise, set or monitor policy. This paper critically assesses the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which was created in 2008 as an independent body to help move the UK towards a low carbon economy. We look at the motivation for its creation in terms of: information provision, advice, monitoring, or policy delegation. In particular we consider its ability to overcome a time inconsistency problem by comparing and contrasting it with another independent body, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. In practice the Committee on Climate Change appears to be the ‘inverse’ of the Monetary Policy Committee, in that it advises on what the policy goal should be rather than being responsible for achieving it. The CCC incorporates both advisory and monitoring functions to inform government and achieve a credible carbon policy over a long time frame. This is a similar framework to that adopted by Stern (2006), but the CCC operates on a continuing basis. We therefore believe the CCC is best viewed as a "Rolling Stern plus" body. There are also concerns as to how binding the budgets actually are and how the budgets interact with other energy policy goals and instruments, such as Renewable Obligation Contracts and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The CCC could potentially be reformed to include: an explicit information provision role; consumption-based accounting of emissions and control of a policy instrument such as a balanced-budget carbon tax.

The application of chemometrics on Infrared and Raman spectra as a tool for the forensic analysis of paints

The aim of this work is to evaluate the capabilities and limitations of chemometric methods and other mathematical treatments applied on spectroscopic data and more specifically on paint samples. The uniqueness of the spectroscopic data comes from the fact that they are multivariate - a few thousands variables - and highly correlated. Statistical methods are used to study and discriminate samples. A collection of 34 red paint samples was measured by Infrared and Raman spectroscopy. Data pretreatment and variable selection demonstrated that the use of Standard Normal Variate (SNV), together with removal of the noisy variables by a selection of the wavelengths from 650 to 1830 cm−1 and 2730-3600 cm−1, provided the optimal results for infrared analysis. Principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical clusters analysis (HCA) were then used as exploratory techniques to provide evidence of structure in the data, cluster, or detect outliers. With the FTIR spectra, the Principal Components (PCs) correspond to binder types and the presence/absence of calcium carbonate. 83% of the total variance is explained by the four first PCs. As for the Raman spectra, we observe six different clusters corresponding to the different pigment compositions when plotting the first two PCs, which account for 37% and 20% respectively of the total variance. In conclusion, the use of chemometrics for the forensic analysis of paints provides a valuable tool for objective decision-making, a reduction of the possible classification errors, and a better efficiency, having robust results with time saving data treatments.

A cohort-based analysis of the evolution of lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution by men in the general population of Switzerland, 1987-2000

Background: Despite their relevance to the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, there are few data on the frequency of recourse to prostitution in the male population in Switzerland. Using data gathered for the evaluation of the Swiss AIDS prevention strategy, we analysed net aggregate change and cohort-based change in lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution. Methods: Seven repeated cross-sectional telephone surveys of the general population aged 17-45 years (17-30 years only for the 1987 and 1988 surveys) were undertaken from 1987 to 2000 providing information on sexual behaviour including men's recourse to prostitution (total n¼9318). Age categories were: 17-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40 and 41-45 years. Prevalence at 17-30 years was available in all surveys and prevalence at 41-45 was available for 1989-2000, though not for the same cohorts. Intra-cohort increase in prevalence over 10 years was analysed using truncated information for cohorts aged 21-25 and 26-30 years in 1987 and 1990. Population estimates were computed with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: No net change occurred in the 17-45 years male population prevalence between 1989 (17.6%, CI ¼ 15.4; 20.0) and 2000 (17.7%, CI ¼ 15.6; 20.0). The median starting prevalence of recourse to prostitution at age 17-20 was 4.8% (in 1989, CI ¼ 2.0; 9.7) and the range was from 1.8 (in 1994) to 10.4% (in 1990). The median ending prevalence at age 41-45 was 21.9% (in 1994, CI 16.7; 27.9) and the range was from 17.9 (in 2000) to 26.1% (in 1992). No clear trend was observed in either starting or ending prevalence. Intra-cohort evolution of the 1997 and 1990 cohorts was very similar. Conclusions: Based on available data, there was no net (aggregate) change in the prevalence of recourse to prostitution by males in Switzerland between 1989 and 2000. Within the time frame available, intra-cohort evolution was also very similar.

Perceptions of Europe in political and economic elites: a geographical compared analysis of Germany, Spain and Poland

Elite perceptions about Europe are a very important point in order to understand the current European integration process, as well as the future perspectives for the continent. This study makes a comparison between the perceptions which political and economical elites in some European countries have about the European Union process and its mechanisms. The main goal is to identify the differences in positions of each type of elites, as well as the variations among three key countries. The database built thanks to the INTUNE (Integrated and United? A quest for Citizenship in an ¨ever closer Europe¨) Project Survey on European Elites and Masses, funded by the Sixth Framework Programme of the EU [Contract CIT 3-CT-2005-513421] have being used. The questionnaire was applied between February and May 2007, in a total of 18 European countries. The national teams got a total of almost 2000 valid responses at European level. In the analysis we have showed some general descriptive statistics about the perception of Europe taking as a reference two dimensions of the INTUNE project: identity (attachment to the national level, the meaning of being a truly national, and the threats from Turkey that EU is facing at this moment) and representation (trust in European and national institutions, preferences for a national or an European army). The results are presented distinguishing between political (national MP’s in low chambers) and economical elites (presidents of corporations, general managers…) and, at the same time, among three countries: Germany as an original member of the European Union; Spain, incorporated in 1986; and a new member, Poland, joining the EU in 2004.

MSight: an image analysis software for liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry.

Images obtained from high-throughput mass spectrometry (MS) contain information that remains hidden when looking at a single spectrum at a time. Image processing of liquid chromatography-MS datasets can be extremely useful for quality control, experimental monitoring and knowledge extraction. The importance of imaging in differential analysis of proteomic experiments has already been established through two-dimensional gels and can now be foreseen with MS images. We present MSight, a new software designed to construct and manipulate MS images, as well as to facilitate their analysis and comparison.

A collaborative approach for incorporating forensic case data into crime investigation using criminal intelligence analysis and visualisation

There is an increasing awareness that the articulation of forensic science and criminal investigation is critical to the resolution of crimes. However, models and methods to support an effective collaboration between these partners are still poorly expressed or even lacking. Three propositions are borrowed from crime intelligence methods in order to bridge this gap: (a) the general intelligence process, (b) the analyses of investigative problems along principal perspectives: entities and their relationships, time and space, quantitative aspects and (c) visualisation methods as a mode of expression of a problem in these dimensions. Indeed, in a collaborative framework, different kinds of visualisations integrating forensic case data can play a central role for supporting decisions. Among them, link-charts are scrutinised for their abilities to structure and ease the analysis of a case by describing how relevant entities are connected. However, designing an informative chart that does not bias the reasoning process is not straightforward. Using visualisation as a catalyser for a collaborative approach integrating forensic data thus calls for better specifications.

Nash equilibrium strategies in discrete-time finite-horizon dynamic games with risk-and effort-averse players

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the risk-and effort attitude in the context of strategic dynamic interactions stated as a discrete-time finite-horizon Nash game. The analysis is based on the assumption that players are endogenously risk-and effort-averse. Each player is characterized by distinct risk-and effort-aversion types that are unknown to his opponent. The goal of the game is the optimal risk-and effort-sharing between the players. It generally depends on the individual strategies adopted and, implicitly, on the the players' types or characteristics.

Análisis de una iniciativa estudiantil de investigación surgida en Criptogamia, una asignatura optativa de segundo ciclo de Biología = Analysis of a students’ research initiative originating in Cryptogamy, an elective course in the last two years of the Biology degree

Presentamos una experiencia exitosa de aprendizaje que partió de Criptogamia (asignatura optativa de segundo ciclo de Biología), que dio lugar a un proyecto de investigación gestionado por los propios alumnos. La iniciativa se consolidó estableciendo una Asociación de Estudiantes centrada en investigación y divulgación. En poco tiempo, los participantes han presentado comunicaciones científicas, y organizado actividades dirigidas a diversos públicos, dentro y fuera de la comunidad universitaria. Actualmente se plantea una colaboración multidisciplinar con otros organismos de investigación y la extensión de su ámbito de estudio. Abordamos su incidencia en el aprendizaje en varios aspectos: científico (técnicas específicas, rigor, búsqueda de información e interpretación de resultados), comunicativo (estructuración y presentación de la información obtenida, para diversos públicos), y organizativo, incluyendo el trabajo en equipo. Aunque de carácter espontáneo, esta experiencia muestra rasgos evaluables en cuanto a sus posibilidades para otras asignaturas. Analizamos las características y planteamiento de esta optativa, el perfil de sus alumnos, y el contexto universitario que la acoge. Detectamos como factores principales los aspectos participativos de la asignatura, la cohesión del grupo, el carácter voluntario de la implicación, los beneficios percibidos por los estudiantes, y la disponibilidad de recursos humanos (supervisión) y materiales (equipamiento y subvenciones).

Dimensionality of drinking consequences - cross-cultural comparability and stability over time

Despite the long tradition for asking about the negative social and health consequences of alcohol consumption in surveys, little is known about the dimensionality of these consequences. Analysing cross-sectional and longitudinal data from the Nordic Taxation Study collected for Sweden, Finland, and Denmark in two waves in 2003 and 2004 by means of an explorative principal component analysis for categorical data (CATPCA), it is tested whether consequences have a single underlying dimension across cultures. It further tests the reliability, replicability, concurrent and predictive validity of the consequence scales. A one-dimensional solution was commonly preferable. Whereas the two-dimensional solution was unable to distinguish clearly between different concepts of consequences, the one-dimensional solution resulted in interpretable, generally very stable scales within countries across different samples and time.

Adjuvant chemotherapy for localised resectable soft-tissue sarcoma of adults: meta-analysis of individual data

BACKGROUND: Individually, randomised trials have not shown conclusively whether adjuvant chemotherapy benefits adult patients with localised resectable soft-tissue sarcoma.METHODS: A quantitative meta-analysis of updated data from individual patients from all available randomised trials was carried out to assess whether adjuvant chemotherapy improves overall survival, recurrence-free survival, and local and distant recurrence-free intervals (RFI) and whether chemotherapy is differentially effective in patients defined by age, sex, disease status at randomisation, disease site, histology, grade, tumour size, extent of resection, and use of radiotherapy.FINDINGS: 1568 patients from 14 trials of doxorubicin-based adjuvant chemotherapy were included (median follow-up 9.4 years). Hazard ratios of 0.73 (95% CI 0.56-0.94, p = 0.016) for local RFI, 0.70 (0.57-0.85, p = 0.0003) for distant RFI, and 0.75 (0.64-0.87, p = 0.0001) for overall recurrence-free survival, correspond to absolute benefits from adjuvant chemotherapy of 6% (95% CI 1-10), 10% (5-15), and 10% (5-15), respectively, at 10 years. For overall survival the hazard ratio of 0.89 (0.76-1.03) was not significant (p = 0.12), but represents an absolute benefit of 4% (1-9) at 10 years. These results were not affected by prespecified changes in the groups of patients analysed. There was no consistent evidence that the relative effect of adjuvant chemotherapy differed for any subgroup of patients for any endpoint. However, the best evidence of an effect of adjuvant chemotherapy for survival was seen in patients with sarcomas of the extremities.INTERPRETATION: The meta-analysis provides evidence that adjuvant doxorubicin-based chemotherapy significantly improves the time to local and distant recurrence and overall recurrence-free survival. There is a trend towards improved overall survival.

Thirty new loci for age at menarche identified by a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies.

To identify loci for age at menarche, we performed a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies in 87,802 women of European descent, with replication in up to 14,731 women. In addition to the known loci at LIN28B (P = 5.4 × 10⁻⁶⁰) and 9q31.2 (P = 2.2 × 10⁻³³), we identified 30 new menarche loci (all P < 5 × 10⁻⁸) and found suggestive evidence for a further 10 loci (P < 1.9 × 10⁻⁶). The new loci included four previously associated with body mass index (in or near FTO, SEC16B, TRA2B and TMEM18), three in or near other genes implicated in energy homeostasis (BSX, CRTC1 and MCHR2) and three in or near genes implicated in hormonal regulation (INHBA, PCSK2 and RXRG). Ingenuity and gene-set enrichment pathway analyses identified coenzyme A and fatty acid biosynthesis as biological processes related to menarche timing.

A study of the aging of fingerprints by GC/MS analysis.

Determining the time since deposition of fingermarks may prove necessary in order to assess their relevance to criminal investigations. The crucial factor is the initial composition of fingermarks because it represents the starting point of any ageing model. This study mainly aimed to characterize the initial composition of fingerprints, which show a high variability between donors (inter-variability), but also to investigate the variations among fingerprints from the same donor (intra-variability). Solutions to reduce this initial variability using squalene and cholesterol as target compounds are proposed and should be further investigated. The influence of substrates was also evaluated and the initial composition was observed to be larger on porous surface than non-porous surfaces. Preliminary aging of fingerprints over 30 days was finally studied on a porous and a non-porous substrate to evaluate the potential for dating of fingermarks. Squalene was observed to decrease in a faster rate on a non-porous substrate.