A review of the theoretical basis for bulk mass flux convective parameterization

Most parameterizations for precipitating convection in use today are bulk schemes, in which an ensemble of cumulus elements with different properties is modelled as a single, representative entraining-detraining plume. We review the underpinning mathematical model for such parameterizations, in particular by comparing it with spectral models in which elements are not combined into the representative plume. The chief merit of a bulk model is that the representative plume can be described by an equation set with the same structure as that which describes each element in a spectral model. The equivalence relies on an ansatz for detrained condensate introduced by Yanai et al. (1973) and on a simplified microphysics. There are also conceptual differences in the closure of bulk and spectral parameterizations. In particular, we show that the convective quasi-equilibrium closure of Arakawa and Schubert (1974) for spectral parameterizations cannot be carried over to a bulk parameterization in a straightforward way. Quasi-equilibrium of the cloud work function assumes a timescale separation between a slow forcing process and a rapid convective response. But, for the natural bulk analogue to the cloud-work function (the dilute CAPE), the relevant forcing is characterised by a different timescale, and so its quasi-equilibrium entails a different physical constraint. Closures of bulk parameterization that use the non-entraining parcel value of CAPE do not suffer from this timescale issue. However, the Yanai et al. (1973) ansatz must be invoked as a necessary ingredient of those closures.

A simple model of convection with memory

There are at least three distinct time scales that are relevant for the evolution of atmospheric convection. These are the time scale of the forcing mechanism, the time scale governing the response to a steady forcing, and the time scale of the response to variations in the forcing. The last of these, tmem, is associated with convective life cycles, which provide an element of memory in the system. A highly simplified model of convection is introduced, which allows for investigation of the character of convection as a function of the three time scales. For short tmem, the convective response is strongly tied to the forcing as in conventional equilibrium parameterization. For long tmem, the convection responds only to the slowly evolving component of forcing, and any fluctuations in the forcing are essentially suppressed. At intermediate tmem, convection becomes less predictable: conventional equilibrium closure breaks down and current levels of convection modify the subsequent response.

A study of the sensitivity of ocean overturning circulation and climate to freshwater input in different regions of the North Atlantic

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the climate system. Models indicate that the AMOC can be perturbed by freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic. Using an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, we investigate the dependence of such a perturbation of the AMOC, and the consequent climate change, on the region of freshwater forcing. A wide range of changes in AMOC strength is found after 100 years of freshwater forcing. The largest changes in AMOC strength occur when the regions of deepwater formation in the model are forced directly, although reductions in deepwater formation in one area may be compensated by enhanced formation elsewhere. North Atlantic average surface air temperatures correlate linearly with the AMOC decline, but warming may occur in localised regions, notably over Greenland and where deepwater formation is enhanced. This brings into question the representativeness of temperature changes inferred from Greenland ice-core records.

Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful?

A new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.

Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year reanalysis over the tropical oceans

We compare European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year reanalysis (ERA-15) moisture over the tropical oceans with satellite observations and the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) National Center for Atmospheric Research 40-year reanalysis. When systematic differences in moisture between the observational and reanalysis data sets are removed, the NCEP data show excellent agreement with the observations while the ERA-15 variability exhibits remarkable differences. By forcing agreement between ERA-15 column water vapor and the observations, where available, by scaling the entire moisture column accordingly, the height-dependent moisture variability remains unchanged for all but the 550–850 hPa layer, where the moisture variability reduces significantly. Thus the excess variation of column moisture in ERA-15 appears to originate in this layer. The moisture variability provided by ERA-15 is not deemed of sufficient quality for use in the validation of climate models.

Can desert dust explain the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly over the Sahara during July 2003?

Measurements of the top‐of‐the‐atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for July 2003 from Meteosat‐7 are used to assess the performance of the numerical weather prediction version of the Met Office Unified Model. A significant difference is found over desert regions of northern Africa where the model emits too much OLR by up to 35 Wm−2 in the monthly mean. By cloud‐screening the data we find an error of up to 50 Wm−2 associated with cloud‐free areas, which suggests an error in the model surface temperature, surface emissivity, or atmospheric transmission. By building up a physical model of the radiative properties of mineral dust based on in situ, and surface‐based and satellite remote sensing observations we show that the most plausible explanation for the discrepancy in OLR is due to the neglect of mineral dust in the model. The calculations suggest that mineral dust can exert a longwave radiative forcing by as much as 50 Wm−2 in the monthly mean for 1200 UTC in cloud‐free regions, which accounts for the discrepancy between the model and the Meteosat‐7 observations. This suggests that inclusion of the radiative effects of mineral dust will lead to a significant improvement in the radiation balance of numerical weather prediction models with subsequent improvements in performance.

The Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget Project

This paper reports on a new satellite sensor, the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) experiment. GERB is designed to make the first measurements of the Earth's radiation budget from geostationary orbit. Measurements at high absolute accuracy of the reflected sunlight from the Earth, and the thermal radiation emitted by the Earth are made every 15 min, with a spatial resolution at the subsatellite point of 44.6 km (north–south) by 39.3 km (east–west). With knowledge of the incoming solar constant, this gives the primary forcing and response components of the top-of-atmosphere radiation. The first GERB instrument is an instrument of opportunity on Meteosat-8, a new spin-stabilized spacecraft platform also carrying the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared (SEVIRI) sensor, which is currently positioned over the equator at 3.5°W. This overview of the project includes a description of the instrument design and its preflight and in-flight calibration. An evaluation of the instrument performance after its first year in orbit, including comparisons with data from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite sensors and with output from numerical models, are also presented. After a brief summary of the data processing system and data products, some of the scientific studies that are being undertaken using these early data are described. This marks the beginning of a decade or more of observations from GERB, as subsequent models will fly on each of the four Meteosat Second Generation satellites.

On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle

Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail, however, especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues, we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure, a control run of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant, and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1,000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40°N and 40°S, over 100 years. In the perturbation run, changes to the surface buoyancy, near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently, relative to the control run, the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6°C, and the interior cools by up to 1.1°C, after a few decades. This vertical re-arrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing, the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing, which we demonstrate to be around 10-20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically, the mechanism appears to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback, which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore, since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean's thermal structure, it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases.

The role of nonhydrostatic dynamics in controlling development of a surface ocean front

Numerical studies of surface ocean fronts forced by inhomogeneous buoyancy loss show nonhydrostatic convective plumes coexisting with baroclinic eddies. The character of the vertical overturning depends sensitively on the treatment of the vertical momentum equation in the model. It is less well known how the frontal evolution over scales of O(10 km) is affected by these dynamics. Here, we compare highly resolved numerical experiments using nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic models and the convective-adjustment parametrization. The impact of nonhydrostatic processes on average cross-frontal transfer is weak compared to the effect of the O(1 km) scale baroclinic motions. For water-mass distribution and formation rate nonhydrostatic dynamics have similar influence to the baroclinic eddies although adequate resolution of the gradients in forcing fluxes is more important. The overall implication is that including nonhydrostatic surface frontal dynamics in ocean general circulation models will have only a minor effect on scales of O(1 km) and greater.

QUAGMIRE v1.3: a quasi-geostrophic model for investigating rotating fluids experiments

QUAGMIRE is a quasi-geostrophic numerical model for performing fast, high-resolution simulations of multi-layer rotating annulus laboratory experiments on a desktop personal computer. The model uses a hybrid finite-difference/spectral approach to numerically integrate the coupled nonlinear partial differential equations of motion in cylindrical geometry in each layer. Version 1.3 implements the special case of two fluid layers of equal resting depths. The flow is forced either by a differentially rotating lid, or by relaxation to specified streamfunction or potential vorticity fields, or both. Dissipation is achieved through Ekman layer pumping and suction at the horizontal boundaries, including the internal interface. The effects of weak interfacial tension are included, as well as the linear topographic beta-effect and the quadratic centripetal beta-effect. Stochastic forcing may optionally be activated, to represent approximately the effects of random unresolved features. A leapfrog time stepping scheme is used, with a Robert filter. Flows simulated by the model agree well with those observed in the corresponding laboratory experiments.

On the energetics of stratified turbulent mixing, irreversible thermodynamics, Boussinesq models and the ocean heat engine controversy

In this paper, the available potential energy (APE) framework of Winters et al. (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 289, 1995, p. 115) is extended to the fully compressible Navier– Stokes equations, with the aims of clarifying (i) the nature of the energy conversions taking place in turbulent thermally stratified fluids; and (ii) the role of surface buoyancy fluxes in the Munk & Wunsch (Deep-Sea Res., vol. 45, 1998, p. 1977) constraint on the mechanical energy sources of stirring required to maintain diapycnal mixing in the oceans. The new framework reveals that the observed turbulent rate of increase in the background gravitational potential energy GPEr , commonly thought to occur at the expense of the diffusively dissipated APE, actually occurs at the expense of internal energy, as in the laminar case. The APE dissipated by molecular diffusion, on the other hand, is found to be converted into internal energy (IE), similar to the viscously dissipated kinetic energy KE. Turbulent stirring, therefore, does not introduce a new APE/GPEr mechanical-to-mechanical energy conversion, but simply enhances the existing IE/GPEr conversion rate, in addition to enhancing the viscous dissipation and the entropy production rates. This, in turn, implies that molecular diffusion contributes to the dissipation of the available mechanical energy ME =APE +KE, along with viscous dissipation. This result has important implications for the interpretation of the concepts of mixing efficiency γmixing and flux Richardson number Rf , for which new physically based definitions are proposed and contrasted with previous definitions. The new framework allows for a more rigorous and general re-derivation from the first principles of Munk & Wunsch (1998, hereafter MW98)’s constraint, also valid for a non-Boussinesq ocean: G(KE) ≈ 1 − ξ Rf ξ Rf Wr, forcing = 1 + (1 − ξ )γmixing ξ γmixing Wr, forcing , where G(KE) is the work rate done by the mechanical forcing, Wr, forcing is the rate of loss of GPEr due to high-latitude cooling and ξ is a nonlinearity parameter such that ξ =1 for a linear equation of state (as considered by MW98), but ξ <1 otherwise. The most important result is that G(APE), the work rate done by the surface buoyancy fluxes, must be numerically as large as Wr, forcing and, therefore, as important as the mechanical forcing in stirring and driving the oceans. As a consequence, the overall mixing efficiency of the oceans is likely to be larger than the value γmixing =0.2 presently used, thereby possibly eliminating the apparent shortfall in mechanical stirring energy that results from using γmixing =0.2 in the above formula.

The impact of moist processes on the African easterly jet-African easterly wave system

The African Easterly Jet-Easterly Wave (AEJ-AEW) system was explored in an idealised model. Prescribed zonally symmetric surface temperature and moisture profiles determine the AEJ which becomes established through meridional contrasts in dry and moist convection.As in previous studies, a realistic AEJ developed with only dry convection. Including moist processes, increased its development rate, but reduced its speed and meridional extent. AEWs grew through barotropic-baroclinic conversions. Negative meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients arose in the zonally symmetric state through the intrusion of the low-PV Saharan boundary layer. Since moist processes strengthened this significantly through diabatically generated PV in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, moist AEWs were three times stronger. Larger barotropic conversions and faster AEJ development increased the moist wave growth-rate. Jet-level and northerly low-level amplitudes grew, but in the moist case the low-level amplitudes weakened as the AEW interacted with convection, consistent with their absence from observations during the peak monsoon. Striking dependencies between the AEJ, AEW and rainfall existed. Two time-scales governed their evolution, depending on the transfer coefficients: (1) the AEJ's replenishment rate influenced by heat fluxes, and (2) the wave growth-rate, by damping, and the slower jet development rate.Moist AEWs were characterized by intermittent growth/decay, with growth preceded by increased mean rainfall and later, weakening AEJs. These dependencies established an internal 8-10-day variability, consistent with intra-seasonal observations of 9-day rainy sequences. This internal variability offers an alternative explanation to the previously proposed external forcing and a new view of the moist AEW life cycle. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

The effect of mechanical stirring on horizontal convection

An important experimental result, as yet poorly understood, is that mechanical stirring can significantly enhance the strength of horizontal convection. A contentious issue is whether this necessarily implies that the mechanical stirring replaces the buoyancy forcing as the main source of energy driving the observed overturning circulation, as has been suggested for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). In this paper, rigorous energetics considerations and idealized numerical experiments reveal that the rate at which the surface buoyancy forcing supplies energy to the fluid, as measured by the production rate of available potential energy G(APE), does not solely depend upon the buoyancy forcing, as is often implicitly assumed, but also upon the vertical stratification, such that the deeper the thermocline depth, the larger G(APE). This suggests that mechanical stirring enhances horizontal convection because it causes more energy to be extracted from the buoyancy forcing. It does so by enhancing turbulent mixing, which allows surface heating to reach greater depths, which increases the thermocline depth and hence G(APE). This paper therefore proposes a new hypothesis, namely that mechanically stirred horizontal convection and the AMOC are best described as mechanically controlled heat engines.

Independent component analysis of climate data: A new look at EOF rotation

The complexity inherent in climate data makes it necessary to introduce more than one statistical tool to the researcher to gain insight into the climate system. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is one of the most widely used methods to analyze weather/climate modes of variability and to reduce the dimensionality of the system. Simple structure rotation of EOFs can enhance interpretability of the obtained patterns but cannot provide anything more than temporal uncorrelatedness. In this paper, an alternative rotation method based on independent component analysis (ICA) is considered. The ICA is viewed here as a method of EOF rotation. Starting from an initial EOF solution rather than rotating the loadings toward simplicity, ICA seeks a rotation matrix that maximizes the independence between the components in the time domain. If the underlying climate signals have an independent forcing, one can expect to find loadings with interpretable patterns whose time coefficients have properties that go beyond simple noncorrelation observed in EOFs. The methodology is presented and an application to monthly means sea level pressure (SLP) field is discussed. Among the rotated (to independence) EOFs, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern, an Arctic Oscillation–like pattern, and a Scandinavian-like pattern have been identified. There is the suggestion that the NAO is an intrinsic mode of variability independent of the Pacific.

An eclectic morphostratigraphic model for the sedimentary response to Holocene sea-level rise in northwest Europe

The improved empirical understanding of silt facies in Holocene coastal sequences provided by such as diatom, foraminifera, ostracode and testate amoebae analysis, combined with insights from quantitative stratigraphic and hydraulic simulations, has led to an inclusive, integrated model for the palaeogeomorphology, stratigraphy, lithofacies and biofacies of northwest European Holocene coastal lowlands in relation to sea-level behaviour. The model covers two general circumstances and is empirically supported by a range of field studies in the Holocene deposits of a number of British estuaries, particularly, the Severn. Where deposition was continuous over periods of centuries to millennia, and sea level fluctuated about a rising trend, the succession consists of repeated cycles of silt and peat lithofacies and biofacies in which series of transgressive overlaps (submergence sequences) alternate with series of regressive overlaps (emergence sequences) in association with the waxing and waning of tidal creek networks. Environmental and sea-level change are closely coupled, and equilibrium and secular pattern is of the kind represented ideally by a closed limit cycle. In the second circumstance, characteristic of unstable wetland shores and generally affecting smaller areas, coastal erosion ensures that episodes of deposition in the high intertidal zone last no more than a few centuries. The typical response is a series of regressive overlaps (emergence sequence) in erosively based high mudflat and salt-marsh silts that record, commonly as annual banding, exceptionally high deposition rates and a state of strong disequilibrium. Environmental change, including creek development, and sea-level movement are uncoupled. Only if deposition proceeds for a sufficiently long period, so that marshes mature, are equilibrium and close coupling regained. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.