Robust regression applied to fractal/multifractal analysis.

Fractal and multifractal are concepts that have grown increasingly popular in recent years in the soil analysis, along with the development of fractal models. One of the common steps is to calculate the slope of a linear fit commonly using least squares method. This shouldn?t be a special problem, however, in many situations using experimental data the researcher has to select the range of scales at which is going to work neglecting the rest of points to achieve the best linearity that in this type of analysis is necessary. Robust regression is a form of regression analysis designed to circumvent some limitations of traditional parametric and non-parametric methods. In this method we don?t have to assume that the outlier point is simply an extreme observation drawn from the tail of a normal distribution not compromising the validity of the regression results. In this work we have evaluated the capacity of robust regression to select the points in the experimental data used trying to avoid subjective choices. Based on this analysis we have developed a new work methodology that implies two basic steps: ? Evaluation of the improvement of linear fitting when consecutive points are eliminated based on R pvalue. In this way we consider the implications of reducing the number of points. ? Evaluation of the significance of slope difference between fitting with the two extremes points and fitted with the available points. We compare the results applying this methodology and the common used least squares one. The data selected for these comparisons are coming from experimental soil roughness transect and simulated based on middle point displacement method adding tendencies and noise. The results are discussed indicating the advantages and disadvantages of each methodology.

Comparison of fractal dimensions based on segmented NDVI fields obtained from different remote sensors.

Satellite image data have become an important source of information for monitoring vegetation and mapping land cover at several scales. Beside this, the distribution and phenology of vegetation is largely associated with climate, terrain characteristics and human activity. Various vegetation indices have been developed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of vegetation using remote spectral measurements. In particular, sensors with spectral bands in the red (RED) and near-infrared (NIR) lend themselves well to vegetation monitoring and based on them [(NIR - RED) / (NIR + RED)] Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widespread used. Given that the characteristics of spectral bands in RED and NIR vary distinctly from sensor to sensor, NDVI values based on data from different instruments will not be directly comparable. The spatial resolution also varies significantly between sensors, as well as within a given scene in the case of wide-angle and oblique sensors. As a result, NDVI values will vary according to combinations of the heterogeneity and scale of terrestrial surfaces and pixel footprint sizes. Therefore, the question arises as to the impact of differences in spectral and spatial resolutions on vegetation indices like the NDVI. The aim of this study is to establish a comparison between two different sensors in their NDVI values at different spatial resolutions.

Frequency and Intensity of drought events over Ebro River basin.

Lately, several researchers have pointed out that climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions, simultaneously increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall events. These changes could have consequences regarding rainfall regime, erosion, sediment transport and water quality, soil management, and new designs in diversion ditches. Climate change is expected to result in increasingly unpredictable and variable rainfall, in amount and timing, changing seasonal patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. Consequently, the evolution of frequency and intensity of drought periods is of most important as in agro-ecosystems many processes will be affected by them. Realising the complex and important consequences of an increasing frequency of extreme droughts at the Ebro River basin, our aim is to study the evolution of drought events at this site statistically, with emphasis on the occurrence and intensity of them. For this purpose, fourteen meteorological stations were selected based on the length of the rainfall series and the climatic classification to obtain a representative untreated dataset from the river basin. Daily rainfall series from 1957 to 2002 were obtained from each meteorological station and no-rain period frequency as the consecutive numbers of days were extracted. Based on this data, we study changes in the probability distribution in several sub-periods. Moreover we used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for identification of drought events in a year scale and then we use this index to fit log-linear models to the contingency tables between the SPI index and the sub-periods, this adjusted is carried out with the help of ANOVA inference.

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, select alternatives and development of plans for adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it.

There is evidence that the climate changes and that now, the change is influenced and accelerated by the CO2 augmentation in atmosphere due to combustion by humans. Such ?Climate change? is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most countries and international organisms UNO (e.g. Rio de Janeiro 1992), OECD, EC, etc . . . the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. The Protocol of Kyoto 1997 set international efforts about CO2 emissions, but it was partial and not followed e.g. by USA and China . . . , and in Durban 2011 the ineffectiveness of humanity on such global real challenges was set as evident. Among all that, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs, and the authors propose to enter in that frame for study. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model must help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, which will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly in especially vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will consider criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion) and environmental, at the present moment and the future. The intention is to obtain tools for aiding to get a realistic position for these challenges, which are an important part of the future problems of humanity in next decades.

Sum Insured Determination for Cereal, Citrus and Vineyards in the Spanish Agricultural Insurance System.

In general, insurance is a form of risk management used to hedge against a contingent loss. The conventional definition is the equitable transfer of a risk of loss from one entity to another in exchange for a premium or a guaranteed and quantifiable small loss to prevent a large and possibly devastating loss being agricultural insurance a special line of property insurance. Agriculture insurance, as actually are designed in the Spanish scenario, were established in 1978. At the macroeconomic insurance studies scale, it is necessary to know a basic element for the insurance actuarial components: sum insured. When a new risk assessment has to be evaluated in the insurance framework, it is essential to determinate venture capital in the total Spanish agriculture. In this study, three different crops (cereal, citrus and vineyards) cases are showed to determinate sum insured as they are representative of the cases found in the Spanish agriculture. Crop sum insured is calculated by the product of crop surface, unit surface production and crop price insured. In the cereal case, winter as spring cereal sowing, represents the highest Spanish crop surface, above to 6 millions of hectares (ha). Meanwhile, the four citrus species (oranges, mandarins, lemons and grapefruits) occupied an extension just over 275.000 ha. On the other hand, vineyard target to wine process shows almost one million of ha in Spain.

Influence of climate change on the flowering of temperate fruit trees

It is well known that winter chilling is necessary for the flowering of temperate trees. The chilling requirement is a criterion for choosing a species or variety at a given location. Also chemistry products can be used for reducing the chilling-hours needs but make our production more expensive. This study first analysed the observed values of chilling hours for some representative agricultural locations in Spain for the last three decades and their projected changes under climate change scenarios. Usually the chilling is measured and calculated as chilling-hours, and different methods have been used to calculate them (e.g. Richarson et al., 1974 among others) according to the species considered. For our objective North Carolina method (Shaltout and Unrath, 1983) was applied for apples, Utah method (Richardson et al. 1974) for peach and grapevine and the approach used by De Melo-Abreu et al. (2004) for olive trees. The influence of climate change in temperate trees was studied by calculating projections of chilling-hours with climate data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). These projections will allow for analysing the modelled variations of chill-hours between 2nd half of 20C and 1st half of 21C at the study locations.

Climate variability effects on summer cropping systems on the Iberian Peninsula

Climate variability and changes in the frequency of extremes events have a direct impact on crop yield and damages. Climate anomalies projections at monthly and yearly timescale allows us for adapting a cropping system (crops, varieties and management) to take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The objective of this work is to develop indices to evaluate the effect of climatic variability in summer cropping systems of Iberian Peninsula, in an attempt of relating yield variability to climate variability, extending the work of Rodríguez-Puebla (2004).

Topology of a percolating soil pore network.

A connectivity function defined by the 3D-Euler number, is a topological indicator and can be related to hydraulic properties (Vogel and Roth, 2001). This study aims to develop connectivity Euler indexes as indicators of the ability of soils for fluid percolation. The starting point was a 3D grey image acquired by X-ray computed tomography of a soil at bulk density of 1.2 mg cm-3. This image was used in the simulation of 40000 particles following a directed random walk algorithms with 7 binarization thresholds. These data consisted of 7 files containing the simulated end points of the 40000 random walks, obtained in Ruiz-Ramos et al. (2010). MATLAB software was used for computing the frequency matrix of the number of particles arriving at every end point of the random walks and their 3D representation.

Discovery of ferromanganese hydrocarbon-related nodules associated with the Meknes mud volcano (Western Moroccan margin)

A suite of ferromanganese nodules were sampled during the MVSEIS-2008 cruise aboard of the R/V Hespérides in the flanks of Meknes mud volcano (Moroccan margin, NE Central Atlantic). The nodules were collected at water depths between 750-850 m within a seabed area characterized by high acoustic backscatter values. Debris of cold water corals and hydrocarbon-derived authigenic carbonate crusts were sampled at same time. The nodules show tabular morphology, up to 20 cm in maximum diameter and 2 kg of weight, brown-reddish external color and they are internally composed by a concentric to complex arrangement of laminae. The results of X-ray diffraction analysis show that these ferromanganese nodules are essentially composed of goethite and lepidocrocite, being Mn-oxides, silicates (quartz and clay minerals) and carbonates (calcite, dolomite and siderite) accessory to occasional minerals. All the samples display micritic to micro-sparitic mosaic under the petrographic microscope which forms massive, laminated or dendritic-mottled textures. The nodules show a high abundance of Fe, minor Mn and low contents of trace metals and REEs. Mature hydrocarbons, as n-alkanes derived from marine bacterial activity, and phenanthrene have been detected in all the ferromanganese nodules analyzed. These nodules display analogous characteristics (textural, mineralogical and geochemical) to the nodules studied by González et al (2009) in the carbonate mud-mounds in the Gulf of Cadiz, offshore Iberian margin. In this way, the same preliminary genetic model proposed for these nodules might be applicable to those find in the Meknes mud volcano. Therefore, the anaerobic oxidation of hydrocarbon-rich fluids within the mud-breccia sediments in the flanks of Meknes mud volcano would induce the formation of early diagenetic Fe-(Mn) carbonate nodules. Thus, the nodules were later exhumed by the erosive action of sea bottom currents generating the replacement of ferromanganese carbonates by Fe-Mn oxy-hydroxides. Thus, the hydrocarbon-rich fluid venting from deep seated reservoirs and erosive action of bottom currents must have been essential actors, as mineralization controls, for ferromanganese nodules generation and evolution. These findings imply that this type of nodules must be considered as new product as derived from the anaerobic/aerobic oxidation of hydrocarbons in areas of active seepages.

Water chemistry at Hontomín-Huermeces (Burgos, Spain): insights for a pre-, intra- and post-CO2 injection geochemical monitoring.

In this study, the very first geochemical and isotopic data related to surface and spring waters and dissolved gases in the area of Hontomín-Huermeces (Burgos, Spain) are presented and discussed. Hontomín-Huermeces was selected as a pilot site for the injection of pure (>99 %) CO2. Injection and monitoring wells are planned to be drilled close to 6 oil wells completed in the 1980’s. Stratigraphical logs indicate the presence of a confined saline aquifer at the depth of about 1,500 m into which less than 100,000 tons of liquid CO2 will be injected, possibly starting in 2013. The chemical and isotopic features of the spring waters suggest the occurrence of a shallow aquifer having a Ca2+(Mg2+)-HCO3- composition, relatively low salinity (Total Dissolved Solids _800 mg/L) and a meteoric isotopic signature. Some spring waters close to the oil wells are characterized by relatively high concentrations of NO3- (up to 123 mg/L), unequivocally indicating anthropogenic contamination that adds to the main water-rock interaction processes. The latter can be referred to Ca-Mg-carbonate and, at a minor extent, Al-silicate dissolution, being the outcropping sedimentary rocks characterized by Palaeozoic to Quaternary rocks. Anomalous concentrations of Cl-, SO42-, As, B and Ba were measured in two springs discharging a few hundreds meters from the oil wells and in the Rio Ubierna, possibly indicative of mixing processes, although at very low extent, between deep and shallow aquifers. Gases dissolved in spring waters show relatively high concentrations of atmospheric species, such as N2, O2 and Ar, and isotopically negative CO2 (<-17.7 h V-PDB), likely related to a biogenic source, possibly masking any contribution related to a deep source. The geochemical and isotopic data of this study are of particular importance when a monitoring program will be established to verify whether CO2 leakages, induced by the injection of this greenhouse gas, may affect the quality of the waters of the shallow Hontomín-Huermeces hydrological circuit. In this respect, carbonate chemistry, the isotopic carbon of dissolved CO2 and TDIC (Total Dissolved Inorganic Carbon) and selected trace elements can be considered as useful parameters to trace the migration of the injected CO2 into near-surface environments.

Agaete revisited: new data on the Gran Canaria tsunamiites.

The tsunami deposits of the valley of Agaete (Pérez-Torrado et al., 2006), north-western Gran Canaria, attributed to the Guimar flank collapse in Tenerife, have been revisited and new data are presented here. Besides the occurrences reported by Pérez-Torrado et al. (2006) a new outcrop was found and named “La Ruina” (at 28º 05’ 47,41” N; 15º 41’ 52,04” W; 71 m asl). The above-mentioned authors suggested the possibility that more than one marine conglomerate deposit could be present in the outcrops of “Llanos de Turmán” and “Berrazales”. At “La Gasolinera” and “La Aldea 1” the conglomerates are formed by a single layer representing one depositional event; at “La Aldea 2”, the conglomerates are composed of two layers directly contacting with each other, but evidence of a time hiatus between them was not found. Although the hypothesis of stacking of two depositional units within the same episode versus deposition of two distinct layers in different time-moments is debatable at the present state of knowledge, the first possibility is favoured. The field evidence at “Llanos de Turman” and “Berrazales” unquestionably shows that terrestrial sediments (colluvia; paleosols) are present and separate two marine conglomerate deposits, indicating that at least two distinct tsunami inundations are needed to explain the stratigraphy. However, at the new “La Ruina” outcrop, besides the two deposits mentioned above, a third and older marine conglomerate was found, clearly separated in time from the ones cited above. The existence of marine conglomerates emplaced in different moments is evidenced by the occurrence of intercalated paleosols, colluvia and other subaerial materials, implying significant time intervals between the emplacement of marine conglomeratic layers. A number of gastropod operculae from the tsunamiites were sent for U-Th dating to try to further constrain the age span of these deposits. The field evidence presented above shows that the emplacement of the deposits is related to, at least, three tsunami events. The lateral correlation between different outcrops is difficult due to variable number of deposits in each outcrop, lateral discontinuity and variability, and to compositional and textural similarity between distinct tsunami sediments. The occurrence of three Pleistocene tsunami deposits in the same area points to a relatively high frequency of tsunamis (generated by landslides, surface rupturing earthquakes, fast entry of voluminous volcanic deposits into the sea or large submarine eruptions). It is possible that this recurrence of tsunami inundations may reflect multiple-phased landslides responsible for the mega-landslide scars prominent in the geomorphology of the neighbouring island of Tenerife. This is a contribution from project “Estabilidad de los edificios volcánicos en Canarias: análisis de los factores geológicos, geomecánicos y paleoclimáticos. Aplicación a los flancos N y S de la isla de Tenerife” financed by MCT, Spain.

An evaluation of seismic hazard in La Hispaniola, after the 2010 Haiti earthquake

An evaluation of the seismic hazard in La Hispaniola Island has been carried out, as part of the cooperative project SISMO-HAITI, supported by the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) and developed by several Spanish Universities, the National Observatory of Environment and Vulnerability) ONEV of Haiti, and with contributions from the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) and University Seismological Institute of Dominican Republic (ISU). The study was aimed at obtaining results suitable for seismic design purposes. It started with the elaboration of a seismic catalogue for the Hispaniola Island, requiring an exhaustive revision of data reported by more than 20 seismic agencies, apart from these from the PRSN and ISU. The final catalogue contains 96 historical earthquakes and 1690 instrumental events, and it was homogenized to moment magnitude, Mw. Seismotectonic models proposed for the region were revised and a new regional zonation was proposed, taking into account geological andtectonic data, seismicity, focal mechanisms, and GPS observations. In parallel, attenuation models for subduction and crustal zones were revised in previous projects and the most suitable for the Caribbean plate were selected. Then, a seismic hazard analysis was developed in terms of peak ground acceleration, PGA, and spectral accelerations, SA (T), for periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2s, using the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology. As a result, different hazard maps were obtained for the quoted parameters, together with Uniform Hazard Spectra for Port au Prince and the main cities in the country. Hazard deaggregation was also carried out in these towns, for the target motion given by the PGA and SA (1s) obtained for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. Therefore, the controlling earthquakes for short- and long-period target motions were derived. This study was started a few months after the 2010 earthquake, as a response to an aid request from the Haitian government to the UPM, and the results are available for the definition of the first building code in Haiti.

Comparison of NDVI fields obtained from different remote sensors

Satellite image data have become an important source of information for monitoring vegetation and mapping land cover at several scales. Beside this, the distribution and phenology of vegetation is largely associated with climate, terrain characteristics and human activity. Various vegetation indices have been developed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of vegetation using remote spectral measurements. In particular, sensors with spectral bands in the red (RED) and near-infrared (NIR) lend themselves well to vegetation monitoring and based on them [(NIR - RED) / (NIR + RED)] Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widespread used. Given that the characteristics of spectral bands in RED and NIR vary distinctly from sensor to sensor, NDVI values based on data from different instruments will not be directly comparable. The spatial resolution also varies significantly between sensors, as well as within a given scene in the case of wide-angle and oblique sensors. As a result, NDVI values will vary according to combinations of the heterogeneity and scale of terrestrial surfaces and pixel footprint sizes. Therefore, the question arises as to the impact of differences in spectral and spatial resolutions on vegetation indices like the NDVI and their interpretation as a drought index. During 2012 three locations (at Salamanca, Granada and Córdoba) were selected and a periodic pasture monitoring and botanic composition were achieved. Daily precipitation, temperature and monthly soil water content were measurement as well as fresh and dry pasture weight. At the same time, remote sensing images were capture by DEIMOS-1 and MODIS of the chosen places. DEIMOS-1 is based on the concept Microsat-100 from Surrey. It is conceived for obtaining Earth images with a good enough resolution to study the terrestrial vegetation cover (20x20 m), although with a great range of visual field (600 km) in order to obtain those images with high temporal resolution and at a reduced cost. By contranst, MODIS images present a much lower spatial resolution (500x500 m). The aim of this study is to establish a comparison between two different sensors in their NDVI values at different spatial resolutions. Acknowledgements. This work was partially supported by ENESA under project P10 0220C-823. Funding provided by Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICINN) through project no. MTM2009-14621 and i-MATH No. CSD2006-00032 is greatly appreciated.

Offshore remote sensing of the ocean by stereo vision systems

In recent years, remote sensing imaging systems for the measurement of oceanic sea states have attracted renovated attention. Imaging technology is economical, non-invasive and enables a better understanding of the space-time dynamics of ocean waves over an area rather than at selected point locations of previous monitoring methods (buoys, wave gauges, etc.). We present recent progress in space-time measurement of ocean waves using stereo vision systems on offshore platforms, which focus on sea states with wavelengths in the range of 0.01 m to 1 m. Both traditional disparity-based systems and modern elevation-based ones are presented in a variational optimization framework: the main idea is to pose the stereoscopic reconstruction problem of the surface of the ocean in a variational setting and design an energy functional whose minimizer is the desired temporal sequence of wave heights. The functional combines photometric observations as well as spatial and temporal smoothness priors. Disparity methods estimate the disparity between images as an intermediate step toward retrieving the depth of the waves with respect to the cameras, whereas elevation methods estimate the ocean surface displacements directly in 3-D space. Both techniques are used to measure ocean waves from real data collected at offshore platforms in the Black Sea (Crimean Peninsula, Ukraine) and the Northern Adriatic Sea (Venice coast, Italy). Then, the statistical and spectral properties of the resulting observed waves are analyzed. We show the advantages and disadvantages of the presented stereo vision systems and discuss future lines of research to improve their performance in critical issues such as the robustness of the camera calibration in spite of undesired variations of the camera parameters or the processing time that it takes to retrieve ocean wave measurements from the stereo videos, which are very large datasets that need to be processed efficiently to be of practical usage. Multiresolution and short-time approaches would improve efficiency and scalability of the techniques so that wave displacements are obtained in feasible times.

Coastal floods and decadal changes: the climate factor

Observation has widely shown for nearly all last century that the Spanish (Dynamic) Maritime Climate was following around 10 to 11 year cycles in its most significant figure, wind wave, despite it being better to register cycles of 20 to 22 years, in analogical way with the semi-diurnal and diurnal cycles of Cantabrian tides. Those cycles were soon linked to sun activity and, at the end of the century, the latter was related to the Solar System evolution. We know now that waves and storm surges are coupled and that (Dynamic) Maritime Climate forms part of a more complex “Thermal Machine” including Hydrological cycle. The analysis of coastal floods could so facilitate the extension of that experience. According to their immediate cause, simple flood are usually sorted out into flash, pluvial, fluvial, groundwater and coastal types, considering the last as caused by sea waters. But the fact is that most of coastal floods are the result of the concomitance of several former simple types. Actually, the several Southeastern Mediterranean coastal flood events show to be the result of the superposition within the coastal zone of flash, fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flood types under boundary condition imposed by the concomitant storm sea level rise. This work shall be regarded as an attempt to clarify that cyclic experience, through an in-depth review of a past flood events in Valencia (Turia and Júcar basins), as in Murcia (Segura’s) as well.