Ranking Spatial and Temporal Hotspots for Road Safety Interventions Using a Nonlinear Aggregation Approach

In recent years, the concept of a composite performance index, brought from economic and business statistics, has gained popularity in the field of road safety. The construction of the Composite Safety Performance Index (CSPI) involves the following key steps: the selection of the most appropriate indicators to be aggregated and the method used to aggregate them.

Over the last decade, various aggregation methods for estimating the CSPI have been suggested in the literature. However, recent studies indicates that most of these methods suffer from many deficiencies at both the theoretical and operational level; these include the correlation and compensability between indicators, as well as their high “degree of freedom” which enables one to readily manipulate them to produce desired outcomes.

The purpose of this study is to introduce an alternative aggregation method for the estimation of the CSPI, which is free from the aforementioned deficiencies. In contrast with the current aggregation methods, which generally use linear combinations of road safety indicators to estimate a CSPI, the approach advocated in this study is based on non-linear combinations of indicators and can be summarized into the following two main steps: the pairwise comparison of road safety indicators and the development of marginal and composite road safety performance functions. The introduced method has been successfully applied to identify and rank temporal and spatial hotspots for Northern Ireland, using road traffic collision data recorded in the UK STATs19 database. The obtained results highlight the promising features of the proposed approach including its stability and consistency, which enables significantly reduced deficiencies associated with the current aggregation methods. Progressively, the introduced method could evolve into an intelligent support system for road safety assessment.

Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.

Intermittent and Scale-Invariant Intensity Fluctuations in Hot Coronal Loops

ABSTRACT BODY: To resolve outstanding questions on heating of coronal loops, we study intensity fluctuations in inter-moss portions of active region core loops as observed with AIA/SDO. The 94Å fluctuations (Figure 1) have structure on timescales shorter than radiative and conductive cooling times. Each of several strong 94Å brightenings is followed after ~8 min by a broader peak in the cooler 335Å emission. This indicates that we see emission from the hot component of the 94Å contribution function. No hotter contributions appear, and we conclude that the 94Å intensity can be used as a proxy for energy injection into the loop plasma. The probability density function of the observed 94Å intensity has 'heavy tails' that approach zero more slowly than the tails of a normal distribution. Hence, large fluctuations dominate the behavior of the system. The resulting 'intermittence' is associated with power-law or exponential scaling of the related variables, and these in turn are associated with turbulent phenomena. The intensity plots in Figure 1 resemble multifractal time series, which are common to various forms of turbulent energy dissipation. In these systems a single fractal dimension is insufficient to describe the dynamics and instead there is a spectrum of fractal dimensions that quantify the self-similar properties. Figure 2 shows the multifractal spectrum from our data to be invariant over timescales from 24 s to 6.4 min. We compare these results to outputs from theoretical energy dissipation models based on MHD turbulence, and in some cases we find substantial agreement, in terms of intermittence, multifractality and scale invariance. Figure 1. Time traces of 94A intensity in the inter-moss portions of four AR core loops. Figure 2. Multifractal spectra showing timescale invariance. The four cases of Figure 1 are included.

Turbulent Fluctuations in G-band and K-line Intensities Observed with the Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) Instrument

Using the Rapid Oscillation in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) instrument at the Dunn Solar Telescope we have found that the spectra of fluctuations of the G-band (cadence 1.05 s) and Ca II K-line (cadence 4.2 s) intensities show correlated fluctuations above white noise out to frequencies beyond 300 mHz and up to 70 mHz, respectively. The noise-corrected G-band spectrum presents a scaling range (Ultra High Frequency “UHF”) for f = 25-100 mHz, with an exponent consistent with the presence of turbulent motions. The UHF power, is concentrated at the locations of magnetic bright points in the intergranular lanes, it is highly intermittent in time and characterized by a positive kurtosis κ. Combining values of G-band and K-line intensities, the UHF power, and κ, reveals two distinct “states” of the internetwork solar atmosphere. State 1, with κ ≍ 6, which includes almost all the data, is characterized by low intensities and low UHF power. State 2, with κ ≍ 3, including a very small fraction of the data, is characterized by high intensities and high UHF power. Superposed epoch analysis shows that for State 1, the K-line intensity presents 3.5 min chromospheric oscillations with maxima occurring 21 s after G-band intensity maxima implying a 150-210 km effective height difference. For State 2, the G-band and K-line intensity maxima are simultaneous, suggesting that in the highly magnetized environment sites of G-band and K-line emission may be spatially close together. Analysis of observations obtained with Hinode/SOT confirm a scaling range in the G-band spectrum up to 53 mHz also consistent with turbulent motions as well as the identification of two distinct states in terms of the H-line intensity and G-band power as functions of G-band intensity.

Coupled Effects of a Perturbation in a Complex Structure Observed with SDO/AIA, SDO/HMI and ROSA/HARDcam

We study properties of intensity fluctuations in NOAA Active Region 11250 observed on 13 July 2011 starting at UT 13:32. Included are data obtained in the EUV bands of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/AIA) as well as nearly simultaneous observations of the chromosphere made, at much higher spatial and temporal resolution, with the Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) and Hydrogen-Alpha Rapid Dynamics camera (HARDcam) systems at the Dunn Solar Telescope. A complex structure seen in both the ROSA/HARDcam and SDO data sets comprises a system of loops extending outward from near the boundary of the leading sunspot umbra. It is visible in the ROSA Ca II K and HARDcam Hα images, as well as the SDO 304 Å, 171 Å and 193 Å channels, and it thus couples the chromosphere, transition region and corona. In the ground-based images the loop structure is 4.1 Mm long. Some 17.5 Mm, can be traced in the SDO/AIA data. The chromospheric emissions observed by ROSA and HARDcam appear to occupy the inner, and apparently cooler and lower, quarter of the loop. We compare the intensity fluctuations of two points within the structure. From alignment with SDO/HMI images we identify a point "A" near the loop structure, which sits directly above a bipolar magnetic feature in the photosphere. Point "B" is characteristic of locations within the loops that are visible in both the ROSA/HARDcam and the SDO/AIA data. The intensity traces for point A are quiet during the first part of the data string. At time ~ 19 min they suddenly begin a series of impulsive brightenings. In the 171 Å and 193 Å coronal lines the brightenings are localized impulses in time, but in the transition region line at 304 Å they are more extended in time. The intensity traces in the 304 Å line for point B shows a quasi-periodic signal that changes properties at about 19 min. The wavelet power spectra are characterized by two periodicities. A 6.7 min period extends from the beginning of the series until about 25 minutes, and another signal with period ~3 min starts at about 20 min. The 193 Å power spectrum has a characteristic period of 5 min, before the 20 min transition and a 2.5 min periodicity afterward. In the case of HARDcam Hα data a localized 4 min periodicity can be found until about 7 min, followed by a quiet regime. After ~20 min a 2.3 min periodicity appears. Interestingly a coronal loop visible in the 94 Å line that is centrally located in the AR, running from the leading umbra to the following polarity, at about time 20 min undergoes a strong brightening beginning at the same moment all along 15 Mm of its length. The fact that these different signals all experience a clear-cut change at time about 20 min suggests an underlying organizing mechanism. Given that point A has a direct connection to the photospheric magnetic bipole, we conjecture that the whole extended structure is connected in a complex manner to the underlying magnetic field. The periodicities in these features may favor the wave nature rather than upflows and interpretations will be discussed.

Disentangling the Harrisson Archive to Interpret the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Vertebrate Remains at Niah Caves, Sarawak

During the 1950s and 1960s, excavations by the Sarawak Museum at Niah Cave in northwest Borneo produced an enormous archive of records and artefacts, including in excess of 750,000 macro- and micro-vertebrate remains. The excellent state of preservation of the animal bone, dating from the Late Pleistocene (c. 40 kya) to as recently as c. 500 years ago had the potential to provide unparalleled zooarchaeological information about early hunter-gatherer resource procurement, temporal changes in subsistence patterning, and the impact of peoples on the local and regional environment in Island Southeast Asia. However, the coarse-grained methods of excavation employed during the original investigations and the sheer scale of the archaeological record and bone assemblages dissuaded many researchers from attempting to tackle the Niah archives. This paper outlines how important information on the nature of the archaeological record at Niah has now finally been extracted from the archive using a combination of zooarchaeological analysis and reference to the extensive archaeological records from the site. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fusion of Static and Temporal Information for Threat Evaluation in Sensor Networks

In many CCTV and sensor network based intelligent surveillance systems, a number of attributes or criteria are used to individually evaluate the degree of potential threat of a suspect. The outcomes for these attributes are in general from analytical algorithms where data are often pervaded with uncertainty and incompleteness. As a result, such individual threat evaluations are often inconsistent, and individual evaluations can change as time elapses. Therefore, integrating heterogeneous threat evaluations with temporal influence to obtain a better overall evaluation is a challenging issue. So far, this issue has rarely be considered by existing event reasoning frameworks under uncertainty in sensor network based surveillance. In this paper, we first propose a weighted aggregation operator based on a set of principles that constraints the fusion of individual threat evaluations. Then, we propose a method to integrate the temporal influence on threat evaluation changes. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our system with a decision support event modeling framework using an airport security surveillance scenario.

A spatio-temporal contrast of the predatory impact of an invasive freshwater crustacean

Aim: Impacts of invasive species may vary across invasion gradients, owing to trait-based sorting of individuals through dispersal: those aggregating at invasion fronts may be more aggressive and voracious. We examine, in the field and laboratory, variation in the predatory impacts of an invasive Ponto-Caspian crustacean Hemimysis anomala G.O. Sars, 1907 at two sites along a spatio-temporal gradient of invasion.

Location: Republic of Ireland.

Methods: We used reciprocal transplant field-deployed mesocosms to compare predation rates of invasion front and well-established H. anomala on natural zooplankton assemblages. In the laboratory, we measured the functional response (relationship between predation rate and prey supply) of H. anomala from both sites, for a per capita mechanistic comparison of predation efficiency. We also assessed prey selectivity of H. anomala in the mesocosm experiments to further compare feeding behaviour. Finally, we used a correlative approach to assess the community impact of H. anomala across sites, including a nearby uninvaded site, by comparing zooplankton diversities and densities.

Results: Invasion front H. anomala had higher predation rates than well-established H. anomala at high in situ zooplankton densities. Invasion front H. anomala also had higher functional responses - in particular showing higher 'attack rates' - indicating a heightened ability to locate and capture prey. Prey selectivity was consistent across the spatio-temporal contrast, with positive selection for cladocerans. Zooplankton diversity and density declined with time since H. anomala invasion, both being maximal at the uninvaded site.

Main conclusions: Our study, for the first time, (1) reveals differences in predatory per capita effects and associated behavioural traits between two sites along a spatio-temporal invasion gradient and (2) shows a negative community-level impact of the invasive H. anomala in natural water bodies. Further spatio-temporal comparisons of predatory per capita effects of invaders are needed to assess the generality of these results.

Temporal Narrowing of Neutrons Produced by High-Intensity Short-Pulse Lasers

The production of neutron beams having short temporal duration is studied using ultraintense laser pulses. Laser-accelerated protons are spectrally filtered using a laser-triggered microlens to produce a short duration neutron pulse via nuclear reactions induced in a converter material (LiF). This produces a similar to 3 ns duration neutron pulse with 10(4) n/MeV/sr/shot at 0.56 m from the laser-irradiated proton source. The large spatial separation between the neutron production and the proton source allows for shielding from the copious and undesirable radiation resulting from the laser-plasma interaction. This neutron pulse compares favorably to the duration of conventional accelerator sources and should scale up with, present and future, higher energy laser facilities to produce brighter and shorter neutron beams for ultrafast probing of dense materials.

Spatial and temporal regulation of the pesticide dieldrin within industrial catchments

The river catchments of south Yorkshire support a very high density of wool processing industries. Dieldrin was once used as a moth proofing agent, as a sheep dip, and as a pesticide to protect wool fleeces during storage and transport, all of which caused pollution of these catchments due to textile processing. Weekly sampling of four of these rivers revealed two classes of dieldrin contamination: the Aire and Calder (the rivers which support very high concentrations of wool processing industries) had higher concentrations (averaging ~3 ng/l) than the Don and Trent (~1 ng/l). The average flux of dieldrin from these rivers into the Humber estuary was 9.8 g/day, with the Aire (of which the Calder is a tributary) and the Trent contributing almost equally, with a smaller contribution from the Don. The Trent has the highest average flow, explaining its large contribution to dieldrin flux. Less detailed sampling of rivers from the north Humber catchment which drain predominantly rural areas had dieldrin concentrations similar to the heavily industrialized southern catchment rivers. This suggests that dieldrin from agronomic and domestic usage may be more persistent than the pollution caused by textile processing industries. Evidence is presented to suggest that the principle dieldrin sources to the Humber catchments are sewage treatment plants, and that the dieldrin sources are in rapid equilibrium with the water column. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

Temporal and spatial patterns in α- and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane concentrations in industrially contaminated rivers

Fluxes of HCH isomers α- and γ-HCH dynamics were determined in four industrial U.K. rivers feeding the North Sea. Sampling was conducted weekly basis over a 2-year period. This was complemented by discrete studies of events where two hourly sampling periods were used to investigate the fine time scale dynamics of fluxes. Two intensively industrialized rivers had average isomer concentrations of ~20 ng L^-1 for both isomers, while average concentrations in the two less industrialized rivers ranged between 1.5 and 5.0 ng L^-1. α-HCH concentrations showed no strong temporal patterns on any river, which contrasts with γ-HCH levels that increased considerably during late summer/early autumn following sustained periods of low river flow. Sampling during high river flow events on rivers with differing HCH pollution histories both showed the same dynamics in HCH isomer concentrations. γ-HCH concentrations decreased 4-fold during events while α-HCH-concentrations stayed constant. The increases in γ-HCH concentrations under low flow conditions and the rapid dilution of this isomer during events indicate that γ-HCH has current inputs to these river systems. It was calculated that these four rivers export 30.8 kg yr^-1 of γ-HCH and 14.8 kg yr^-1 of α-HCH to the North Sea.

Invasive alien species disrupt spatial and temporal ecology and threaten extinction in an insular, small mammal community

The impact of invasive bank vole (Myodes glareolus) and greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula) on indigenous Irish small mammals, varies with season and habitat. We caught bank voles in deciduous woodland, young coniferous plantations and open habitats such as rank grass. The greater white-toothed shrew was absent from deciduous woods and plantations but did use open habitats with low level cover in addition to field margins. Numbers of both invasive species in field margins during summer were higher than in the previous spring. The indigenous wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) and pygmy shrew (Sorex minutus), differed in degrees of negative response to invasive species. Wood mice with bank voles in hedgerows had reduced recruitment and lower peak abundance. This effect was less extreme where both invasive species were present. Wood mice numbers along field margins and open habitats were significantly depressed by the presence of the bank vole with no such effect in deciduous woodland or coniferous plantations. Summer recruitment in pygmy shrews was reduced in hedgerows with bank voles. Where greater white-toothed shrew was present, the pygmy shrew was entirely absent from field margins. Species replacement due to invasive small mammals is occurring in their major habitat i.e. field margins and open habitats where there is good ground cover. Pygmy shrew will probably disappear from these habitats throughout Ireland. Wood mice and possibly pygmy shrew may survive in deciduous woodland and conifer plantations. Mitigation of impacts of invasive species should include expansion of woodland in which native species can survive.