Dynamic rupture simulation integrated with earthquake observations

Dynamic rupture simulations are unique in their contributions to the study of earthquake physics. The current rapid development of dynamic rupture simulations poses several new questions: Do the simulations reflect the real world? Do the simulations have predictive power? Which one should we believe when the simulations disagree? This thesis illustrates how integration with observations can help address these questions and reduce the effects of non-uniqueness of both dynamic rupture simulations and kinematic inversion problems. Dynamic rupture simulations with observational constraints can effectively identify non-physical features inferred from observations. Moreover, the integrative technique can also provide more physical insights into the mechanisms of earthquakes. This thesis demonstrates two examples of such kinds of integration: dynamic rupture simulations of the M_w 9.0 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and of earthquake ruptures in damaged fault zones:

(1) We develop simulations of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on a variety of observations and minimum assumptions of model parameters. The simulations provide realistic estimations of stress drop and fracture energy of the region and explain the physical mechanisms of high-frequency radiation in the deep region. We also find that the overridding subduction wedge contributes significantly to the up-dip rupture propagation and large final slip in the shallow region. Such findings are also applicable to other megathrust earthquakes.

(2) Damaged fault zones are usually found around natural faults, but their effects on earthquake ruptures have been largely unknown. We simulate earthquake ruptures in damaged fault zones with material properties constrained by seismic and geological observations. We show that reflected waves in fault zones are effective at generating pulse-like ruptures and head waves tend to accelerate and decelerate rupture speeds. These mechanisms are robust in natural fault zones with large attenuation and off-fault plasticity. Moreover, earthquakes in damaged fault zones can propagate at super-Rayleigh speeds that are unstable in homogeneous media. Supershear transitions in fault zones do not require large fault stresses. In the end, we present observations in the Big Bear region, where variability of rupture speeds of small earthquakes correlates with the laterally variable materials in a damaged fault zone.

The search for gravitational waves from the coalescence of black hole binary systems in data from the LIGO and Virgo detectors. Or: A dark walk through a random forest

The LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave observatories are complex and extremely sensitive strain detectors that can be used to search for a wide variety of gravitational waves from astrophysical and cosmological sources. In this thesis, I motivate the search for the gravitational wave signals from coalescing black hole binary systems with total mass between 25 and 100 solar masses. The mechanisms for formation of such systems are not well-understood, and we do not have many observational constraints on the parameters that guide the formation scenarios. Detection of gravitational waves from such systems — or, in the absence of detection, the tightening of upper limits on the rate of such coalescences — will provide valuable information that can inform the astrophysics of the formation of these systems. I review the search for these systems and place upper limits on the rate of black hole binary coalescences with total mass between 25 and 100 solar masses. I then show how the sensitivity of this search can be improved by up to 40% by the the application of the multivariate statistical classifier known as a random forest of bagged decision trees to more effectively discriminate between signal and non-Gaussian instrumental noise. I also discuss the use of this classifier in the search for the ringdown signal from the merger of two black holes with total mass between 50 and 450 solar masses and present upper limits. I also apply multivariate statistical classifiers to the problem of quantifying the non-Gaussianity of LIGO data. Despite these improvements, no gravitational-wave signals have been detected in LIGO data so far. However, the use of multivariate statistical classification can significantly improve the sensitivity of the Advanced LIGO detectors to such signals.

Superconductivity, spin-glass properties, and ferromagnetism in amorphous La-Gd-Au alloys

The superconducting and magnetic properties of splat cooled amorphous alloys of composition (La_100-xGd_x)₈₀Au₂₀ (0 ≤ x ≤ 100) have been studied. The La₈₀Au₂₀ alloys are ideal type II super-conductors (critical temperature T_c = 3.5° K ). The concentration range (x less than 1) where superconductivity and spin-glass freezing n1ight coexist has been studied in detail. The spin-glass alloys (0 less than x less than 70) exhibit susceptibility maxima and thermomagnetic history effects. In the absence of complications due to crystal field and enhanced matrix effects, a phenomenological model is proposed in which the magnetic clusters are treated as single spin entities interacting via random forces using the molecular field approach. The fundamental parameters (such as the strength of the forces and the size of clusters) can be deduced from magnetization measurements. The remanent magnetization is shown to arise from an interplay of the RKKY and dipolar forces. Magnetoresistivity results are found to be consistent with the aforementioned picture. The nature of magnetic interactions in an amorphous matrix is also discussed. The moment per Gd atom (7µ_B) is found to be constant and close to that of the crystalline value throughout the concentration range investigated. Finally, a detail study is made of the critical phenomena and magnetic properties of the amorphous ferromagnet: Gd₈₀Au₂₀. The results are compared with recent theories on amorphous magnetism.

A decade of studies at Loch Fleet, Galloway (Scotland): A catchment liming project and restoration of a brown trout fishery

Loch Fleet is a small upland lake in the hills of Galloway in southwest Scotland. In the 1970s the waters of the loch became more acidic and a brown trout fishery failed. This account summarises an experimental project, the "Loch Fleet Project" initiated in 1984, designed to reverse acidification of the loch by liming parts of the catchment. Liming about 40% of the catchment in 1986 and 1987 raised the pH and calcium levels, and reduced toxic aluminium concentrations. The improved conditions had been maintained up to 1994, but water in the loch, and its principal inflow stream, is now falling close to the desired threshold of quality. After liming, restocking with local strains of trout in 1987 was successful, and a self-recruiting population became established within 2 years. Recruitment is highly variable, however, and was attributed to severe spring conditions and the limited spawning capacity of the nursery stream, rather than to water quality.

Um estudo da atenção primária à saúde mediante o indicador: Internações por condições sensíveis à atenção ambulatorial (CSAA)

A Atenção Primária à Saúde - APS é reconhecida como o nível fundamental e porta de entrada do sistema de atenção à saúde, sendo o lugar adequado onde pode ser atendida e resolvida a maior parte dos problemas de saúde. É considerada pela OMS como a principal proposta de modelo assistencial. Essa importância da APS leva a necessidade de pesquisas avaliativas dos seus resultados para adequação e melhoria de políticas e planos de ação delineados em relação à mesma. Pesquisas internacionais e nacionais são realizadas, nas quais indicadores relativos às atividades hospitalares estão sendo empregados com o objetivo de medir resultados como efetividade e acesso da APS. Um desses indicadores, desenvolvido por John Billings da Universidade de Nova York, na década de 90, consiste nas condições pelas quais as internações hospitalares por Condições Sensíveis à Atenção Ambulatorial (CSAA) deveriam ser evitadas caso os serviços da APS fossem efetivos e acessíveis. Utilizando-se o SIH-AIH/2008 e a lista brasileira de Internações por Condições Sensíveis a Atenção Primária, publicada em 2008, a proposta do presente trabalho é a de estudar os cuidados primários à saúde baseando-se nas ICSAA, na área urbana da cidade de Juiz de Fora-MG. Buscou-se responder sobre os efeitos que ocorrem nessas internações a partir das características individuais dos pacientes, das características das Unidades Básicas de Saúde-UBS (infraestrutura, produção e modelos assistenciais) e das condições sócio-econômicas/ambientais das áreas cobertas por UAPS e descobertas (sem UAPS), com a utilização de modelos multiníveis logísticos com intercepto aleatório. Buscou-se conhecer, também, a distribuição espacial das taxas padronizadas por idade das ICSAA nessas áreas e suas associações com as variáveis contextuais, utilizando-se ferramentas da análise espacial. Os resultados do presente trabalho mostraram que a porcentagem de internações por CSAA, foi de 4,1%. Os modelos assistenciais ESF e o Modelo Tradicional, base da organização da atenção primária no Brasil, não apresentaram no município, impacto significativo nas ICSAA, somente na forma de áreas descobertas tendo como referência as áreas cobertas. Também não foram significativas as variáveis de infraestrutura e produção das UAPS. Os efeitos individuais (idade e sexo) nas ICSAA foram significativos, apresentando probabilidades de significância menores que 1%, o mesmo acontecendo com o Índice de Desenvolvimento Social-IDS, que contempla as condições sociais, econômicas e ambientais das áreas analisadas. A distribuição espacial das taxas padronizadas por idade apresentou padrão aleatório e os testes dos Multiplicadores de Lagrange não foram significativos indicando o modelo de regressão clássico (MQO) como adequado para explicar as taxas em função das variáveis contextuais. Para a análise conjunta das áreas cobertas e descobertas foram fatores de risco: a variável econômica (% dos domicílios com renda até 2 SM), áreas descobertas tendo como referência as áreas cobertas e a região nordeste do município. Para as áreas cobertas as variáveis de produção das UAPS, econômica e a região nordeste apresentaram como fator de risco para as taxas de internação por CSAA.

I. Studies on bacteriophage DNA's and minicircular DNA's in M. lysodeikticus and E. coli 15. II. Flow dichroism of DNA solutions

Part I

Chapter 1.....A physicochemical study of the DNA molecules from the three bacteriophages, N1, N5, and N6, which infect the bacterium, M. lysodeikticus, has been made. The molecular weights, as measured by both electron microscopy and sedimentation velocity, are 23 x 10⁶ for N5 DNA and 31 x 10⁶ for N1 and N6 DNA's. All three DNA's are capable of thermally reversible cyclization. N1 and N6 DNA's have identical or very similar base sequences as judged by membrane filter hybridization and by electron microscope heteroduplex studies. They have identical or similar cohesive ends. These results are in accord with the close biological relation between N1 and N6 phages. N5 DNA is not closely related to N1 or N6 DNA. The denaturation T_m of all three DNA's is the same and corresponds to a (GC) content of 70%. However, the buoyant densities in CsCl of Nl and N6 DNA's are lower than expected, corresponding to predicted GC contents of 64 and 67%. The buoyant densities in Cs₂SO₄ are also somewhat anomalous. The buoyant density anomalies are probably due to the presence of odd bases. However, direct base composition analysis of N1 DNA by anion exchange chromatography confirms a GC content of 70%, and, in the elution system used, no peaks due to odd bases are present.

Chapter 2.....A covalently closed circular DNA form has been observed as an intracellular form during both productive and abortive infection processes in M. lysodeikticus. This species has been isolated by the method of CsC1-ethidium bromide centrifugation and examined with an electron microscope.

Chapter 3.....A minute circular DNA has been discovered as a homogeneous population in M. lysodeikticus. Its length and molecular weight as determined by electron microscopy are 0.445 μ and 0.88 x 10⁶ daltons respectively. There is about one minicircle per bacterium.

Chapter 4.....Several strains of E. coli 15 harbor a prophage. Viral growth can be induced by exposing the host to mitomycin C or to uv irradiation. The coliphage 15 particles from E. coli 15 and E, coli 15 T^- appear as normal phage with head and tail structure; the particles from E. coli 15 TAU are tailless. The complete particles exert a colicinogenic activity on E.coli 15 and 15 T^-, the tailless particles do not. No host for a productive viral infection has been found and the phage may be defective. The properties of the DNA of the virus have been studied, mainly by electron microscopy. After induction but before lysis, a closed circular DNA with a contour length of about 11.9 μ is found in the bacterium; the mature phage DNA is a linear duplex and 7.5% longer than the intracellular circular form. This suggests the hypothesis that the mature phage DNA is terminally repetitious and circularly permuted. The hypothesis was confirmed by observing that denaturation and renaturation of the mature phage DNA produce circular duplexes with two single-stranded branches corresponding to the terminal repetition. The contour length of the mature phage DNA was measured relative to φX RFII DNA and λ DNA; the calculated molecular weight is 27 x 10⁶. The length of the single-stranded terminal repetition was compared to the length of φX 174 DNA under conditions where single-stranded DNA is seen in an extended form in electron micrographs. The length of the terminal repetition is found to be 7.4% of the length of the nonrepetitious part of the coliphage 15 DNA. The number of base pairs in the terminal repetition is variable in different molecules, with a fractional standard deviation of 0.18 of the average number in the terminal repetition. A new phenomenon termed "branch migration" has been discovered in renatured circular molecules; it results in forked branches, with two emerging single strands, at the position of the terminal repetition. The distribution of branch separations between the two terminal repetitions in the population of renatured circular molecules was studied. The observed distribution suggests that there is an excluded volume effect in the renaturation of a population of circularly permuted molecules such that strands with close beginning points preferentially renature with each other. This selective renaturation and the phenomenon of branch migration both affect the distribution of branch separations; the observed distribution does not contradict the hypothesis of a random distribution of beginning points around the chromosome.

Chapter 5....Some physicochemical studies on the minicircular DNA species in E. coli 15 (0.670 μ, 1.47 x 10⁶ daltons) have been made. Electron microscopic observations showed multimeric forms of the minicircle which amount to 5% of total DNA species and also showed presumably replicating forms of the minicircle. A renaturation kinetic study showed that the minicircle is a unique DNA species in its size and base sequence. A study on the minicircle replication has been made under condition in which host DNA synthesis is synchronized. Despite experimental uncertainties involved, it seems that the minicircle replication is random and the number of the minicircles increases continuously throughout a generation of the host, regardless of host DNA synchronization.

Part II

The flow dichroism of dilute DNA solutions (A₂₆₀≈0.1) has been studied in a Couette-type apparatus with the outer cylinder rotating and with the light path parallel to the cylinder axis. Shear gradients in the range of 5-160 sec.^-1 were studied. The DNA samples were whole, "half," and "quarter" molecules of T4 bacteriophage DNA, and linear and circular λb₂b₅c DNA. For the linear molecules, the fractional flow dichroism is a linear function of molecular weight. The dichroism for linear A DNA is about 1.8 that of the circular molecule. For a given DNA, the dichroism is an approximately linear function of shear gradient, but with a slight upward curvature at low values of G, and some trend toward saturation at larger values of G. The fractional dichroism increases as the supporting electrolyte concentration decreases.

Stationary random response of multidegree-of-freedom systems

An approximate approach is presented for determining the stationary random response of a general multidegree-of-freedom nonlinear system under stationary Gaussian excitation. This approach relies on defining an equivalent linear system for the nonlinear system. Two particular systems which possess exact solutions have been solved by this approach, and it is concluded that this approach can generate reasonable solutions even for systems with fairly large nonlinearities. The approximate approach has also been applied to two examples for which no exact or approximate solutions were previously available.

Also presented is a matrix algebra approach for determining the stationary random response of a general multidegree-of-freedom linear system. Its derivation involves only matrix algebra and some properties of the instantaneous correlation matricies of a stationary process. It is therefore very direct and straightforward. The application of this matrix algebra approach is in general simpler than that of commonly used approaches.