Statistical and methodological challenges for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment in Rio Grande Valley of Texas

In recent years, disaster preparedness through assessment of medical and special needs persons (MSNP) has taken a center place in public eye in effect of frequent natural disasters such as hurricanes, storm surge or tsunami due to climate change and increased human activity on our planet. Statistical methods complex survey design and analysis have equally gained significance as a consequence. However, there exist many challenges still, to infer such assessments over the target population for policy level advocacy and implementation. ^ Objective. This study discusses the use of some of the statistical methods for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment to facilitate local and state governments for its policy level decision making and logistic support to avoid any loss of life and property in future calamities. ^ Methods. In order to obtain precise and unbiased estimates for Medical Special Needs Persons (MSNP) and disaster preparedness for evacuation in Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas, a stratified and cluster-randomized multi-stage sampling design was implemented. US School of Public Health, Brownsville surveyed 3088 households in three counties namely Cameron, Hidalgo, and Willacy. Multiple statistical methods were implemented and estimates were obtained taking into count probability of selection and clustering effects. Statistical methods for data analysis discussed were Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR), Survey Linear Regression (Svy-Reg), Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE) and Multilevel Mixed Models (MLM) all with and without sampling weights. ^ Results. Estimated population for RGV was 1,146,796. There were 51.5% female, 90% Hispanic, 73% married, 56% unemployed and 37% with their personal transport. 40% people attained education up to elementary school, another 42% reaching high school and only 18% went to college. Median household income is less than $15,000/year. MSNP estimated to be 44,196 (3.98%) [95% CI: 39,029; 51,123]. All statistical models are in concordance with MSNP estimates ranging from 44,000 to 48,000. MSNP estimates for statistical methods are: MLR (47,707; 95% CI: 42,462; 52,999), MLR with weights (45,882; 95% CI: 39,792; 51,972), Bootstrap Regression (47,730; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,785), GEE (47,649; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,670), GEE with weights (45,076; 95% CI: 39,029; 51,123), Svy-Reg (44,196; 95% CI: 40,004; 48,390) and MLM (46,513; 95% CI: 39,869; 53,157). ^ Conclusion. RGV is a flood zone, most susceptible to hurricanes and other natural disasters. People in the region are mostly Hispanic, under-educated with least income levels in the U.S. In case of any disaster people in large are incapacitated with only 37% have their personal transport to take care of MSNP. Local and state government’s intervention in terms of planning, preparation and support for evacuation is necessary in any such disaster to avoid loss of precious human life. ^ Key words: Complex Surveys, statistical methods, multilevel models, cluster randomized, sampling weights, raking, survey regression, generalized estimation equations (GEE), random effects, Intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC).^

Factors influencing hurricane evacuation among Hispanic population

The recent hurricanes of Katrina, Rita, and Dolly have brought to light the precarious situation populations place themselves in when they are unprepared to face a storm, or do not follow official orders to evacuate when a destructive hurricane is poised to hit the area. Three counties in southern Texas lie within 60 miles of the Gulf of Mexico, and along the Mexican border. Determining the barriers to hurricane evacuation in this distinct and highly impoverished area of the United States would help aid local, state, and federal agencies to respond more effectively to persons living here.^ The aim of this study was to examine intention to comply with mandatory hurricane evacuation orders among persons living in three counties in South Texas by gender, income, education, acculturation and county of residence. A questionnaire was administered to 3,088 households across the three counties using a two-stage cluster sampling strategy, stratified by all three counties. The door-to-door survey was a 73-item instrument that included demographics, reasons for and against evacuation, and preparedness for a hurricane. Weighted data were used for the analyses.^ Chi-square tests were run to determine whether differences between observed and expected frequencies were statistically significant. A logistic regression model was developed based on that univariate analysis. Results from the logistic regression estimated odds ratios and their 95 percent confidence intervals for the independent variables.^ Logistic regression results indicate that females were less likely than men to follow an evacuation order. Having a higher education meant more likelihood of evacuating. Those respondents with a higher affiliation with Spanish than English were more likely to follow the evacuation orders. Hidalgo County residents were less likely to evacuate than Cameron or Willacy Counties' residents. Local officials need to implement communication efforts specifically tailored for females, residents with less of an affiliation with Spanish, and Hidalgo County residents to ensure their successful evacuation prior to a strong hurricane's landfall.^

Fate and effects of drilling wastes in a shallow estuarine mesocosm

To address concerns expressed about the possible effect of drilling mud discharges on shallow, low-energy estuarine ecosystems, a 12 month study was designed to detect alterations in water quality and sediment geochemistry. Each drilling mud used in the study and sediments from the study site were analyzed in the laboratory for chemical and physical characteristics. Potential water quality impacts were simulated by the EPA-COE elutriation test procedure. Mud toxicity was measured by acute and chronic bioassays with Mysidopsis bahia, Mercenaria mercenaria, and Nereis virens.^ For the field study, a relatively pristine, shallow (1.2 m) estuary (Christmas Bay, TX) without any drilling activity for the last 30 years was chosen for the study site. After a three month baseline study, three stations were selected. Station 1 was an external control. At each treatment station (2, 3), mesocosms were constructed to enclose a 3.5 m$\sp3$ water column. Each treatment station included an internal control site also. Each in situ mesocosm, except the controls, was successively dosed at a mesocosm-specific dose (1:100; 1:1,000; or 1:10,000 v/v) with 4 field collected drilling muds (spud, nondispersed, lightly-treated, and heavily-treated lignosulfonate) in sequential order over 1.5 months. Twenty-four hours after each dose, water exchange was allowed until the next treatment. Station 3 was destroyed by a winter storm. After the last treatment, the enclosures were removed and the remaining sites monitored for 6 months. One additional site was similarly dosed (1:100 v/v) with clean dredged sediment from Christmas Bay for comparison between dredged sediments and drilling muds.^ Results of the analysis of the water samples and field measurements showed that water quality was impacted during the discharges, primarily at the highest dose (1:100 v/v), but that elevated levels of C, Cr (T,F), Cr$\sp{+3}$ (T, F), N, Pb, and Zn returned to ambient levels before the end of the 24 hour exposure period or immediately after water exchange was allowed (Al, Ba(T), Chlorophyll ABC, SS, %T). Barium, from the barite, was used as a geochemical tracer in the sediments to confirm estimated doses by mass balance calculations. Barium reached a maximum of 166x background levels at the high dose mesocosm. Barium levels returned to ambient or only slightly elevated levels at the end of the 6 month monitoring period due to sediment deposition, resuspension, and bioturbation. QA/QC results using blind samples consisting of lab standards and spiked samples for both water and sediment matrices were within acceptable coefficients of variation.^ In order to avoid impacts on water quality and sediment geochemistry in a shallow estuarine ecosystem, this study concluded that a minimal dilution of 1:1,000 (v/v) would be required in addition to existing regulatory constraints. ^

Preliminary results and documentation of sediment core CRP-1 from the Ross Sea off Cape Roberts, Antarctica

The first hole of the Cape Roberts Project, CRP-1, was drilled in October, 1997, to a depth of 148 metres below the sea floor (mbsf) before being terminated unexpectedly the loss of fast sea-ice seaward of the rig following a severe storm. The site lies in 150 m of water at 77.008°S and 163.755°E, 16 km off Cape Roberts. This part of the report outlines the geologic setting, a gently tilted sequence near the margin of the Victoria Land Basin, and describes the history of the growth of sea ice, which provided the drilling platform, as well as the history of the drilling itself. Core recovery was around 77% in soft and brittle strata to 100 m and 98% below that. The sequence was found to comprise a Quaternary glacigenic interval down to 43.55 mbsf and below this an early Miocene interval that was also glacigenic. Core properties that were studied include fracture patterns, porosity, sonic velocity and magnetic susceptibility. Velocity in particular was useful in relating the cored sequence to the regional seismic stratigraphy. A preliminary assessment suggests that the bottom of the hole is 15 m short of the boundary between seismic sequences V3 and V4. Analytical facilities new to the Antarctic and used for processing samples for the project are described here and include a bench top palynological processing system and a palaeomagnetic laboratory. The core management and sampling system, which recorded over 2000 samples, is also outlined.