Improved evaporative flux partitioning and carbon flux in the land surface model JULES: impact on the simulation of land surface processes in temperate Europe

The primary role of land surface models embedded in climate models is to partition surface available energy into upwards, radiative, sensible and latent heat fluxes. Partitioning of evapotranspiration, ET, is of fundamental importance: as a major component of the total surface latent heat flux, ET affects the simulated surface water balance, and related energy balance, and consequently the feedbacks with the atmosphere. In this context it is also crucial to credibly represent the CO2 exchange between ecosystems and their environment. In this study, JULES, the land surface model used in UK weather and climate models, has been evaluated for temperate Europe. Compared to eddy covariance flux measurements, the CO2 uptake by the ecosystem is underestimated and the ET overestimated. In addition, the contribution to ET from soil and intercepted water evaporation far outweighs the contribution of plant transpiration. To alleviate these biases, adaptations have been implemented in JULES, based on key literature references. These adaptations have improved the simulation of the spatio-temporal variability of the fluxes and the accuracy of the simulated GPP and ET, including its partitioning. This resulted in a shift of the seasonal soil moisture cycle. These adaptations are expected to increase the fidelity of climate simulations over Europe. Finally, the extreme summer of 2003 was used as evaluation benchmark for the use of the model in climate change studies. The improved model captures the impact of the 2003 drought on the carbon assimilation and the water use efficiency of the plants. It, however, underestimates the 2003 GPP anomalies. The simulations showed that a reduction of evaporation from the interception and soil reservoirs, albeit not of transpiration, largely explained the good correlation between the carbon and the water fluxes anomalies that was observed during 2003. This demonstrates the importance of being able to discriminate the response of individual component of the ET flux to environmental forcing.

Settlement patterns in the late Mesolithic of western Scotland: the implications of Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates and inter-site technological comparisons

The character of settlement patterns within the late Mesolithic communities of north-west Europe is a topic of substantial debate. An important case study concerns the five shell middens on the island of Oronsay, Inner Hebrides, western Scotland. Two conflicting interpretations have been proposed: the evidence from seasonality indicators and stable isotope analysis of human bones has been used to support a model of year-round settlement on this small island; alternatively, the middens have been interpreted as resulting from short-term intermittent visits to Oronsay within a regionally mobile settlement pattern. We contribute to this debate by describing Storakaig, a newly discovered site on the nearby island of Islay, undertaking a Bayesian chronological analysis and providing evidence for technological continuity between Oronsay and sites elsewhere in the region. While this new evidence remains open to alternative interpretation, we suggest that it makes regional mobility rather than year-round settlement on Oronsay a more viable interpretation for the Oronsay middens. Our analysis also confirms the likely overlap of the late Mesolithic with the earliest Neolithic within western Scotland.

Influence of dietary protein intake and glycemic index on the association between TCF7L2 HapA and weight gain

BACKGROUND: Genetic polymorphisms of transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2) have been associated with type 2 diabetes and BMI. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to investigate whether TCF7L2 HapA is associated with weight development and whether such an association is modulated by protein intake or by the glycemic index (GI). DESIGN: The investigation was based on prospective data from 5 cohort studies nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Weight change was followed up for a mean (±SD) of 6.8 ± 2.5 y. TCF7L2 rs7903146 and rs10885406 were successfully genotyped in 11,069 individuals and used to derive HapA. Multiple logistic and linear regression analysis was applied to test for the main effect of HapA and its interaction with dietary protein or GI. Analyses from the cohorts were combined by random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: HapA was associated neither with baseline BMI (0.03 ± 0.07 BMI units per allele; P = 0.6) nor with annual weight change (8.8 ± 11.7 g/y per allele; P = 0.5). However, a previously shown positive association between intake of protein, particularly of animal origin, and subsequent weight change in this population proved to be attenuated by TCF7L2 HapA (P-interaction = 0.01). We showed that weight gain becomes independent of protein intake with an increasing number of HapA alleles. Substitution of protein with either fat or carbohydrates showed the same effects. No interaction with GI was observed. CONCLUSION: TCF7L2 HapA attenuates the positive association between animal protein intake and long-term body weight change in middle-aged Europeans but does not interact with the GI of the diet.

An assessment of the prebiotic potential of single and blended substrates in anaerobic in vitro batch culture fermentations using canine faecal samples as inocula

Previously, using an in vitro static batch culture system, it was found that rice bran (RB), inulin, fibersol, mannanoligosaccharides (MOS), larch arabinogalactan and citrus pectin elicited prebiotic effects (in terms of increased numbers of bifidobacteria and lactic acid bacteria) on the faecal microbiota of a dog. The aim of the present study was to confirm the prebiotic potential of each individual substrate using multiple faecal donors, as well as assessing the prebiotic potential of 15 substrate blends made from them. Anaerobic static and stirred, pH-controlled batch culture systems inoculated with faecal samples from healthy dogs were used for this purpose. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis using seven oligonucleotide probes targeting selected bacterial groups and DAPI (total bacteria) was used to monitor bacterial populations during fermentation runs. High-performance liquid chromatography was used to measure butyrate produced as a result of bacterial fermentation of the substrates. RB and a MOS/RB blend (1:1, w/w) were shown to elicit prebiotic and butyrogenic effects on the canine microbiota in static batch culture fermentations. Further testing of these substrates in stirred, pH-controlled batch culture fermentation systems confirmed the prebiotic and butyrogenic effects of MOS/RB, with no enhancement of Clostridium clusters I and II and Escherichia coli populations.

A mathematical model of the sterol regulatory element binding protein 2 cholesterol biosynthesis pathway

Cholesterol is one of the key constituents for maintaining the cellular membrane and thus the integrity of the cell itself. In contrast high levels of cholesterol in the blood are known to be a major risk factor in the development of cardiovascular disease. We formulate a deterministic nonlinear ordinary differential equation model of the sterol regulatory element binding protein 2 (SREBP-2) cholesterol genetic regulatory pathway in an hepatocyte. The mathematical model includes a description of genetic transcription by SREBP-2 which is subsequently translated to mRNA leading to the formation of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR), a main precursor of cholesterol synthesis. Cholesterol synthesis subsequently leads to the regulation of SREBP-2 via a negative feedback formulation. Parameterised with data from the literature, the model is used to understand how SREBP-2 transcription and regulation affects cellular cholesterol concentration. Model stability analysis shows that the only positive steady-state of the system exhibits purely oscillatory, damped oscillatory or monotic behaviour under certain parameter conditions. In light of our findings we postulate how cholesterol homestasis is maintained within the cell and the advantages of our model formulation are discussed with respect to other models of genetic regulation within the literature.

Greater impact of dietary fat manipulation than apolipoprotein E genotype on ex-vivo cytokine production – insights from the SATgenε study

Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype is believed to play an important role in cardiovascular risk. APOE4 carriers have been associated with higher blood lipid levels and a more pro-inflammatory state compared with APOE3/E3 individuals. Although dietary fat composition has been considered to modulate the inflammatory state in humans, very little is known about how APOE genotype can impact on this response. In a follow-up to the main SATgene study, we aimed to explore the effects of APOE genotype, as well as, dietary fat manipulation on ex vivo cytokine production. Blood samples were collected from a subset of SATgene participants (n = 52/88), prospectively recruited according to APOE genotype (n = 26 E3/E3 and n = 26 E3/E4) after low-fat (LF), high saturated fat (HSF) and HSF with 3.45 g docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) dietary periods (each diet eight weeks in duration assigned in the same order) for the measurement of ex vivo cytokine production using whole blood culture (WBC). Concentrations of IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10 and TNF-alpha were measured in WBC supernatant samples after stimulation for 24 h with either 0.05 or 1 lg/ml of bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Cytokine levels were not influenced by genotype, whereas, dietary fat manipulation had a significant impact on TNF-a and IL-10 production; TNF-a concentration was higher after consumption of the HSF diet compared with baseline and the LF diet (P < 0.05), whereas, IL-10 concentration was higher after the LF diet compared with baseline (P < 0.05). In conclusion, our study has revealed the amount and type of dietary fat can significantly modulate the production of TNF-a and IL-10 by ex vivo LPS-stimulated WBC samples obtained from normolipidaemic subjects.

Comparative Analysis of ESBL-Positive Escherichia coli isolates from Animals and Humans from the UK, the Netherlands and Germany

The putative virulence and antimicrobial resistance gene contents of extended spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-positive E. coli (n=629) isolated between 2005 and 2009 from humans, animals and animal food products in Germany, The Netherlands and the UK were compared using a microarray approach to test the suitability of this approach with regard to determining their similarities. A selection of isolates (n=313) were also analysed by multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Isolates harbouring blaCTX-M-group-1 dominated (66%, n=418) and originated from both animals and cases of human infections in all three countries; 23% (n=144) of all isolates contained both blaCTX-M-group-1 and blaOXA-1-like genes, predominantly from humans (n=127) and UK cattle (n=15). The antimicrobial resistance and virulence gene profiles of this collection of isolates were highly diverse. A substantial number of human isolates (32%, n=87) did not share more than 40% similarity (based on the Jaccard coefficient) with animal isolates. A further 43% of human isolates from the three countries (n=117) were at least 40% similar to each other and to five isolates from UK cattle and one each from Dutch chicken meat and a German dog; the members of this group usually harboured genes such as mph(A), mrx, aac(6’)-Ib, catB3, blaOXA-1-like and blaCTX-M-group-1. forty-four per cent of the MLST-typed isolates in this group belonged to ST131 (n=18) and 22% to ST405 (n=9), all from humans. Among animal isolates subjected to MLST (n=258), only 1.2% (n=3) were more than 70% similar to human isolates in gene profiles and shared the same MLST clonal complex with the corresponding human isolates. The results suggest that minimising human-to-human transmission is essential to control the spread of ESBL-positive E. coli in humans.

Postprandial enrichment of triacylglycerol-rich lipoproteins with omega-3 fatty acids: lack of an interaction with apolipoprotein E genotype?

Background: We have previously demonstrated that carrying the apolipoprotein (apo) E epsilon 4 (E4+) genotype disrupts omega-3 fatty acids (n − 3 PUFA) metabolism. Here we hypothesise that the postprandial clearance of n − 3 PUFA from the circulation is faster in E4+ compared to non-carriers (E4−). The objective of the study was to investigate the fasted and postprandial fatty acid (FA) profile of triacylglycerol-rich lipoprotein (TRL) fractions: Sf >400 (predominately chylomicron CM), Sf 60 − 400 (VLDL1), and Sf 20 − 60 (VLDL2) according to APOE genotype. Methods: Postprandial TRL fractions were obtained in 11 E4+ (ε3/ε4) and 12 E4− (ε3/ε3) male from the SATgenε study following high saturated fat diet + 3.45 g/d of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) for 8-wk. Blood samples were taken at fasting and 5-h after consuming a test-meal representative of the dietary intervention. FA were characterized by gas chromatography. Results: At fasting, there was a 2-fold higher ratio of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) to arachidonic acid (P = 0.046) as well as a trend towards higher relative% of EPA (P=0.063) in theSf >400 fraction of E4+. Total n − 3 PUFA in the Sf 60 − 400 and Sf 20 − 60 fractions were not APOE genotype dependant. At 5 h, there was a trend towards a time × genotype interaction (P=0.081) for EPA in theSf >400 fraction. When sub-groups were form based on the level of EPA at baseline within the Sf >400 fraction, postprandial EPA (%) was significantly reduced only in the high-EPA group. EPA at baseline significantly predicted the postprandial response in EPA only in E4+ subjects (R2 = 0.816). Conclusion: Despite the DHA supplement contain very low levels of EPA, E4+ subjects with high EPA at fasting potentially have disrupted postprandial n − 3 PUFA metabolism after receiving a high-dose of DHA. Trial registration: Registered at clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01544855.

Association between Mediterranean and Nordic diet scores and changes in weight and waist circumference: influence of FTO and TCF7L2 loci

BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown that adherence to the Mediterranean Diet measured by using the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) is associated with lower obesity risk. The newly proposed Nordic Diet could hold similar beneficial effects. Because of the increasing focus on the interaction between diet and genetic predisposition to adiposity, studies should consider both diet and genetics. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether FTO rs9939609 and TCF7L2 rs7903146 modified the association between the MDS and Nordic diet score (NDS) and changes in weight (Δweight), waist circumference (ΔWC), and waist circumference adjusted for body mass index (BMI) (ΔWCBMI). DESIGN: We conducted a case-cohort study with a median follow-up of 6.8 y that included 11,048 participants from 5 European countries; 5552 of these subjects were cases defined as individuals with the greatest degree of unexplained weight gain during follow-up. A randomly selected subcohort included 6548 participants, including 5496 noncases. Cases and noncases were compared in analyses by using logistic regression. Continuous traits (ie, Δweight, ΔWC, and ΔWCBMI) were analyzed by using linear regression models in the random subcohort. Interactions were tested by including interaction terms in models. RESULTS: A higher MDS was significantly inversely associated with case status (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.00), ΔWC (β = -0.010 cm/y; 95% CI: -0.020, -0.001 cm/y), and ΔWCBMI (β = -0.008; 95% CI:-0.015, -0.001) per 1-point increment but not Δweight (P = 0.53). The NDS was not significantly associated with any outcome. There was a borderline significant interaction between the MDS and TCF7L2 rs7903146 on weight gain (P = 0.05), which suggested a beneficial effect of the MDS only in subjects who carried 1 or 2 risk alleles. FTO did not modify observed associations. CONCLUSIONS: A high MDS is associated with a lower ΔWC and ΔWCBMI, regardless of FTO and TCF7L2 risk alleles. For Δweight, findings were less clear, but the effect may depend on the TCF7L2 rs7903146 variant. The NDS was not associated with anthropometric changes during follow-up.

Apolipoprotein e genotype has a modest impact on the postprandial plasma response to meals of varying fat composition in healthy men in a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND:Apolioprotein E (APOE) genotype is reported to influence a person's fasting lipid profile and potentially the response to dietary fat manipulation. The impact of APOE genotype on the responsiveness to meals of varying fat composition is unknown. OBJECTIVE:We examined the effect of meals containing 50 g of fat rich in saturated fatty acids (SFAs), unsaturated fatty acids (UNSATs), or SFAs with fish oil (SFA-FO) on postprandial lipemia. METHOD:A randomized, controlled, test meal study was performed in men recruited according to the APOE genotype (n = 10 APOE3/3, n = 11 APOE3/E4). RESULTS:For the serum apoE response (meal × genotype interaction P = 0.038), concentrations were on average 8% lower after the UNSAT than the SFA-FO meal in APOE4 carriers (P = 0.015) only. In the genotype groups combined, there was a delay in the time to reach maximum triacylglycerol (TG) concentration (mean ± SEM: 313 ± 25 vs. 266 ± 27 min) and higher maximum nonesterified fatty acid (0.73 ± 0.05 vs. 0.60 ± 0.03 mmol/L) and glucose (7.92 ± 0.22 vs. 7.25 ± 0.22 mmol/L) concentrations after the SFA than the UNSAT meal, respectively (P ≤ 0.05). In the Svedberg flotation rate 60-400 TG-rich lipoprotein fraction, meal × genotype interactions were observed for incremental area under the curve (IAUC) for the TG (P = 0.038) and apoE (P = 0.016) responses with a 58% lower apoE IAUC after the UNSAT than the SFA meal (P = 0.017) in the E4 carriers. CONCLUSIONS:Our data indicate that APOE genotype had a modest impact on the postprandial response to meals of varying fat composition in normolipidemic men. The physiologic importance of greater apoE concentrations after the SFA-rich meals in APOE4 carriers may reflect an impact on TG-rich lipoprotein clearance from the circulation. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01522482.

Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks

A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in US landfalling systems. Here we present a tentative study, which examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1° to 0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and sub-tropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. Our results show that except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. We also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, we examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.

Dynamics and diversity of the 'Atopobium cluster' in the human faecal microbiota, and phenotypic characterization of 'Atopobium cluster' isolates

This study monitored the dynamics and diversity of the human faecal 'Atopobium cluster' over a 3-month period using a polyphasic approach. Fresh faecal samples were collected fortnightly from 13 healthy donors (6 males and 7 females) aged between 26 and 61 years. Fluorescence in situ hybridization was used to enumerate total (EUB338mix) and 'Atopobium cluster' (ATO291) bacteria, with counts ranging between 1.12 × 1011 and 9.95 × 1011, and 1.03 × 109 and 1.16 × 1011 cells (g dry weight faeces)-1, respectively. The 'Atopobium cluster' population represented 0.2-22 % of the total bacteria, with proportions donor-dependent. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) using 'Atopobium cluster'-specific primers demonstrated faecal populations of these bacteria were relatively stable, with bands identified as Collinsella aerofaciens, Collinsella intestinalis/Collinsella stercoris, Collinsella tanakaei, Coriobacteriaceae sp. PEAV3-3, Eggerthella lenta, Gordonibacter pamelaeae, Olsenella profusa, Olsenella uli and Paraeggerthella hongkongensis in the DGGE profiles of individuals. Colony PCR was used to identify 'Atopobium cluster' bacteria isolated from faeces (n = 224 isolates). 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis of isolates demonstrated Collinsella aerofaciens represented the predominant (88 % of isolates) member of the 'Atopobium cluster' found in human faeces, being found in nine individuals. Eggerthella lenta was identified in three individuals (3.6 % of isolates). Isolates of Collinsella tanakaei, an 'Enorma' sp. and representatives of novel species belonging to the 'Atopobium cluster' were also identified in the study. Phenotypic characterization of the isolates demonstrated their highly saccharolytic nature and heterogeneous phenotypic profiles, and 97 % of the isolates displayed lipase activity.

Handbook of institutional investment and fiduciary duty

Foreword by Al Gore, former Vice President of the United States Endorsements by Keith Ambachsheer, James Gifford, John Kay, Bob Monks, Knut Rostad and Anne Stausboll