961 resultados para Statistical Theory


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A long-held assumption in entrepreneurship research is that normal (i.e., Gaussian) distributions characterize variables of interest for both theory and practice. We challenge this assumption by examining more than 12,000 nascent, young, and hyper-growth firms. Results reveal that variables which play central roles in resource-, cognition-, action-, and environment-based entrepreneurship theories exhibit highly skewed power law distributions, where a few outliers account for a disproportionate amount of the distribution's total output. Our results call for the development of new theory to explain and predict the mechanisms that generate these distributions and the outliers therein. We offer a research agenda, including a description of non-traditional methodological approaches, to answer this call.

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This thesis explored safety culture in a large Australasian construction and mining organisation, with a view to understanding how theory and practice can be integrated to improve safety culture and related outcomes within the industry. The research comprised three studies that investigated the relationship between safety culture, safety motivation, leadership and safety behaviour, and examined differences in perceptions of safety culture across the organisation. Research methodologies and samples included a modified Delphi method with safety leaders (n=41), a quantitative survey with a cross-section of the organisation (n=2,957), and group interviews with frontline supervisors and workers (n=29).

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The celebrated work of Lortie (1975) alerted teacher educators to the extended period of 'apprenticeship' that student teachers have been through before they arrive at teacher education programmes. The subjective implicit theories (Marland, 1992) developed by prospective teachers are shaped by their lifeworld experiences at school and in the case of physical education teachers, their experiences in sport. The biography of physical education teacher education (PETE) students tends to be characterised by ecto-mesomorphic individuals who have been socialised by the rigours of highly competitive sport (Gore, 1990; Macdonald, 1992; Rossi, 1996). We can add to this, the requirements of teacher preparation in physical education which for the most part are dominated by the traditions and rhetoric of the 'natural' bio-physical sciences; largely a legacy of Henry's (1964) work on physical education as an academic discipline, as well as that of Abernathy and Waltz the same year (Abernathy & Waltz, 1964). In the United Kingdom, Curl (1973) further advanced the argument in an attempt to justify human movement as an independent field of study with its own corpus of knowledge. It is little wonder then, that the dominant pedagogical discourse in physical education is, as Tinning (1991) discusses, one of performance pedagogy (see also Hendry, 1986 for an earlier discussion). The knowledge required to support such a discourse could be described as 'official' (Apple, 1993) and it assumes such status by virtue of the power appropriated by and bestowed upon the scientific community in PETE (Macdonald & Tinning, 1995; Sparkes, 1989, 1993). However, there are social reifiers too, and these tend to relate to the social construction of the body (Kirk, 1993; Kirk & Spiller, 1994; Gilroy, 1994) and what Tinning (1985) has termed the Cult of Slenderness. Furthermore the 'slender image' has become a signifier of 'good health'. This is inextricably linked to what might be considered as a health triplex—'exercise = fitness = health' (see Kirk & Colquhoun, 1989; Tinning & Kirk, 1991) which in Australia, underpins curriculum packages such as Daily Physical Education which teachers (often including physical education primary...

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This paper reports on two lengthy studies in Physical education teacher education (PETE) conducted independently but which are epistemologically and methodologically linked. The paper describes how personal construct theory (PCT) and its associated methods provided a means for PETE students to reflexively construct their ideas about teaching physical education over an extended period. Data are drawn from each study in the form of a story of a single participant to indicate how this came about. Furthermore we suggest that PCT might be both a useful research strategy and an effective approach to facilitate professional development in a teacher education setting.

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One quarter of Australian children are overweight or obese (ABS, 2010), putting them at increased risk of physical and psychological health problems (Reilly et al., 2003). Overweight and obesity in childhood tends to persist into adulthood and is associated with premature death and morbidity (Reilly & Kelly, 2011). Increases in Australian children’s weight have coincided with declines in active transportation, such as walking, to school (Salmon et al., 2005). Investigating the factors which influence walking to school is therefore important, particularly since walking to school is a low cost and effective means of reducing excess weight (Rosenberg et al., 2006) that can be easily integrated into daily routine (Brophy et al., 2011). While research in this area has expanded (e.g., Brophy et al., 2011; Giles-Corti et al., 2010), it is largely atheoretical (exceptions Napier et al., 2011). This is an important gap from a social marketing perspective given the use of theory lies at the foundation of the framework (NSMC, 2006) and a continued lack of theory use is observed (Luca & Suggs, 2013). The aim of this paper is to empirically examine a widely adopted theory, the deconstructed Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) (Fishbein & Azjen, 1975), to understand the relative importance of attitude and subjective norms in determining intentions to increase walk to school behaviour.

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Increases in childhood obesity have coincided with declines in active transportation to school. This research builds on largely atheoretical extant literature examining factors that influence walk to school behavior through application of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Understanding caregivers’ decision for their child to walk to/from school is key to developing interventions to promote this cost-effective and accessible health behavior. The results from an online survey of 512 caregivers provide support for the TPB, highlighting the important role of subjective norms. This suggests marketers should nurture caregivers’ perception that important others approve of walking to school.

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Money is often a limiting factor in conservation, and attempting to conserve endangered species can be costly. Consequently, a framework for optimizing fiscally constrained conservation decisions for a single species is needed. In this paper we find the optimal budget allocation among isolated subpopulations of a threatened species to minimize local extinction probability. We solve the problem using stochastic dynamic programming, derive a useful and simple alternative guideline for allocating funds, and test its performance using forward simulation. The model considers subpopulations that persist in habitat patches of differing quality, which in our model is reflected in different relationships between money invested and extinction risk. We discover that, in most cases, subpopulations that are less efficient to manage should receive more money than those that are more efficient to manage, due to higher investment needed to reduce extinction risk. Our simple investment guideline performs almost as well as the exact optimal strategy. We illustrate our approach with a case study of the management of the Sumatran tiger, Panthera tigris sumatrae, in Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), Indonesia. We find that different budgets should be allocated to the separate tiger subpopulations in KSNP. The subpopulation that is not at risk of extinction does not require any management investment. Based on the combination of risks of extinction and habitat quality, the optimal allocation for these particular tiger subpopulations is an unusual case: subpopulations that occur in higher-quality habitat (more efficient to manage) should receive more funds than the remaining subpopulation that is in lower-quality habitat. Because the yearly budget allocated to the KSNP for tiger conservation is small, to guarantee the persistence of all the subpopulations that are currently under threat we need to prioritize those that are easier to save. When allocating resources among subpopulations of a threatened species, the combined effects of differences in habitat quality, cost of action, and current subpopulation probability of extinction need to be integrated. We provide a useful guideline for allocating resources among isolated subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

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The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter. © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

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Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

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Many nations are highlighting the need for a renaissance in the mathematical sciences as essential to the well-being of all citizens (e.g., Australian Academy of Science, 2006; 2010; The National Academies, 2009). Indeed, the first recommendation of The National Academies’ Rising Above the Storm (2007) was to vastly improve K–12 science and mathematics education. The subsequent report, Rising Above the Gathering Storm Two Years Later (2009), highlighted again the need to target mathematics and science from the earliest years of schooling: “It takes years or decades to build the capability to have a society that depends on science and technology . . . You need to generate the scientists and engineers, starting in elementary and middle school” (p. 9). Such pleas reflect the rapidly changing nature of problem solving and reasoning needed in today’s world, beyond the classroom. As The National Academies (2009) reported, “Today the problems are more complex than they were in the 1950s, and more global. They’ll require a new educated workforce, one that is more open, collaborative, and cross-disciplinary” (p. 19). The implications for the problem solving experiences we implement in schools are far-reaching. In this chapter, I consider problem solving and modelling in the primary school, beginning with the need to rethink the experiences we provide in the early years. I argue for a greater awareness of the learning potential of young children and the need to provide stimulating learning environments. I then focus on data modelling as a powerful means of advancing children’s statistical reasoning abilities, which they increasingly need as they navigate their data-drenched world.

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The expansion of creative and cultural industries has provided a rich source for theoretical claims and commentary. Much of this reproduces and extends the idea that autonomy is the defining feature of both enterprises and workers. Drawing on evidence from research into Australian development studios in the global digital games industry, the article interrogates claims concerning autonomy and related issues of insecurity and intensity, skill and specialisation, work–play boundaries, identity and attachments. In seeking to reconnect changes in creative labour to the wider production environment and political economy, an argument is advanced that autonomy is deeply contextual and contested as a dimension of the processes of capturing value for firms and workers.

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Background Improving hand hygiene among health care workers (HCWs) is the single most effective intervention to reduce health care associated infections in hospitals. Understanding the cognitive determinants of hand hygiene decisions for HCWs with the greatest patient contact (nurses) is essential to improve compliance. The aim of this study was to explore hospital-based nurses’ beliefs associated with performing hand hygiene guided by the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 5 critical moments. Using the belief-base framework of the Theory of Planned Behaviour, we examined attitudinal, normative, and control beliefs underpinning nurses’ decisions to perform hand hygiene according to the recently implemented national guidelines. Methods Thematic content analysis of qualitative data from focus group discussions with hospital-based registered nurses from 5 wards across 3 hospitals in Queensland, Australia. Results Important advantages (protection of patient and self), disadvantages (time, hand damage), referents (supportive: patients, colleagues; unsupportive: some doctors), barriers (being too busy, emergency situations), and facilitators (accessibility of sinks/products, training, reminders) were identified. There was some equivocation regarding the relative importance of hand washing following contact with patient surroundings. Conclusions The belief base of the theory of planned behaviour provided a useful framework to explore systematically the underlying beliefs of nurses’ hand hygiene decisions according to the 5 critical moments, allowing comparisons with previous belief studies. A commitment to improve nurses’ hand hygiene practice across the 5 moments should focus on individual strategies to combat distraction from other duties, peer-based initiatives to foster a sense of shared responsibility, and management-driven solutions to tackle staffing and resource issues. Hand hygiene following touching a patient’s surroundings continues to be reported as the most neglected opportunity for compliance.

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The influence of constructivism and the ongoing drive for convergence, both of career theories and between theory and practice, have been key drivers in the career development literature for two decades (Patton, International Handbook of Career Guidance, 2008). Both contextual action theory and systems theory are derived from the root metaphor of contextualism, which has been proffered as a worldview to assist scientists and practitioners in organizing day-to-day experiential data. This chapter identifies the theoretical contributions of the Systems Theory Framework (STF) (Patton and McMahon, Career development and systems theory: A new development, 1999, Career psychology in South Africa, 2006) and Contextual Action Theory (Young and Valach, The future of career, 2000, Journal of Vocational Behavior 64:499–514, 2004; Young et al., Career choice and development, 1996, Career choice and development, 2002), each of which has advanced thinking in theory integration and in the integration between theory and practice in the career development and counseling field. Young et al. (Career development in childhood and adolescence, 2007) noted the connections between the Patton and McMahon systems theory approach and the contextual action theory approach and these connections will be highlighted in terms of the application of these theoretical developments to practice in career counseling, with a particular focus on the commonalities between the two approaches and what counselors can learn from each of them. In particular, this chapter will discuss common conceptual understandings and practice dimensions.

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Introduced in this paper is a Bayesian model for isolating the resonant frequency from combustion chamber resonance. The model shown in this paper focused on characterising the initial rise in the resonant frequency to investigate the rise of in-cylinder bulk temperature associated with combustion. By resolving the model parameters, it is possible to determine: the start of pre-mixed combustion, the start of diffusion combustion, the initial resonant frequency, the resonant frequency as a function of crank angle, the in-cylinder bulk temperature as a function of crank angle and the trapped mass as a function of crank angle. The Bayesian method allows for individual cycles to be examined without cycle-averaging|allowing inter-cycle variability studies. Results are shown for a turbo-charged, common-rail compression ignition engine run at 2000 rpm and full load.