Continuous and jump betas: implications for portfolio diversification

Using high-frequency data, we decompose the time-varying beta for stocks into beta for continuous systematic risk and beta for discontinuous systematic risk. Estimated discontinuous betas for S&P500 constituents between 2003 and 2011 generally exceed the corresponding continuous betas. We demonstrate how continuous and discontinuous betas decrease with portfolio diversification. Using an equiweighted broad market index, we assess the speed of convergence of continuous and discontinuous betas in portfolios of stocks as the number of holdings increase. We show that discontinuous risk dissipates faster with fewer stocks in a portfolio compared to its continuous counterpart.

Is cost-related non-collection of prescriptions associated with a reduction in health? Findings from a large-scale longitudinal study of New Zealand adults

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether cost-related non-collection of prescription medication is associated with a decline in health. SETTINGS: New Zealand Survey of Family, Income and Employment (SoFIE)-Health. PARTICIPANTS: Data from 17 363 participants with at least two observations in three waves (2004-2005, 2006-2007, 2008-2009) of a panel study were analysed using fixed effects regression modelling. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-rated health (SRH), physical health (PCS) and mental health scores (MCS) were the health measures used in this study. RESULTS: After adjusting for time-varying confounders, non-collection of prescription items was associated with a 0.11 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.15) unit worsening in SRH, a 1.00 (95% CI 0.61 to 1.40) unit decline in PCS and a 1.69 (95% CI 1.19 to 2.18) unit decline in MCS. The interaction of the main exposure with gender was significant for SRH and MCS. Non-collection of prescription items was associated with a decline in SRH of 0.18 (95% CI 0.11 to 0.25) units for males and 0.08 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.13) units for females, and a decrease in MCS of 2.55 (95% CI 1.67 to 3.42) and 1.29 (95% CI 0.70 to 1.89) units for males and females, respectively. The interaction of the main exposure with age was significant for SRH. For respondents aged 15-24 and 25-64 years, non-collection of prescription items was associated with a decline in SRH of 0.12 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.21) and 0.12 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.17) units, respectively, but for respondents aged 65 years and over, non-collection of prescription items had no significant effect on SRH. CONCLUSION: Our results show that those who do not collect prescription medications because of cost have an increased risk of a subsequent decline in health.

Robust adaptive backstepping controller design for DC-DC buck converters with external disturbances

In modern power electronic systems, DC-DC converter is one of the main controlled power sources for driving DC systems. But the inherent nonlinear and time-varying characteristics often result in some difficulties mostly related to the control issue. This paper presents a robust nonlinear adaptive controller design with a recursive methodology based on the pulse width modulation (PWM) to drive a DC-DC buck converter. The proposed controller is designed based on the dynamical model of the buck converter where all parameters within the model are assumed as unknown. These unknown parameters are estimated through the adaptation laws and the stability of these laws are ensured by formulating suitable control Lyapunov functions (CLFs) at different stages. The proposed control scheme also provides robustness against external disturbances as these disturbances are considered within the model. One of the main features of the proposed scheme is that it overcomes the over-parameterization problems of unknown parameters which usually appear in some conventional adaptive methods. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is verified through the simulation results and compared to that of an existing adaptive backstepping controller. Simulation results clearly indicate the performance improvement in terms of a faster output voltage tracking response.

Computer Aided Design Algorithmic Technique for Very Large Scale Integrated Circuit Design and Smart Home Embedded System Design

To tackle the challenges at circuit level and system level VLSI and embedded system design, this dissertation proposes various novel algorithms to explore the efficient solutions. At the circuit level, a new reliability-driven minimum cost Steiner routing and layer assignment scheme is proposed, and the first transceiver insertion algorithmic framework for the optical interconnect is proposed. At the system level, a reliability-driven task scheduling scheme for multiprocessor real-time embedded systems, which optimizes system energy consumption under stochastic fault occurrences, is proposed. The embedded system design is also widely used in the smart home area for improving health, wellbeing and quality of life. The proposed scheduling scheme for multiprocessor embedded systems is hence extended to handle the energy consumption scheduling issues for smart homes. The extended scheme can arrange the household appliances for operation to minimize monetary expense of a customer based on the time-varying pricing model.

Physics-Based Modeling of Power System Components for the Evaluation of Low-Frequency Radiated Electromagnetic Fields

The low-frequency electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) is an increasingly important aspect in the design of practical systems to ensure the functional safety and reliability of complex products. The opportunities for using numerical techniques to predict and analyze system’s EMC are therefore of considerable interest in many industries. As the first phase of study, a proper model, including all the details of the component, was required. Therefore, the advances in EMC modeling were studied with classifying analytical and numerical models. The selected model was finite element (FE) modeling, coupled with the distributed network method, to generate the model of the converter’s components and obtain the frequency behavioral model of the converter. The method has the ability to reveal the behavior of parasitic elements and higher resonances, which have critical impacts in studying EMI problems. For the EMC and signature studies of the machine drives, the equivalent source modeling was studied. Considering the details of the multi-machine environment, including actual models, some innovation in equivalent source modeling was performed to decrease the simulation time dramatically. Several models were designed in this study and the voltage current cube model and wire model have the best result. The GA-based PSO method is used as the optimization process. Superposition and suppression of the fields in coupling the components were also studied and verified. The simulation time of the equivalent model is 80-100 times lower than the detailed model. All tests were verified experimentally. As the application of EMC and signature study, the fault diagnosis and condition monitoring of an induction motor drive was developed using radiated fields. In addition to experimental tests, the 3DFE analysis was coupled with circuit-based software to implement the incipient fault cases. The identification was implemented using ANN for seventy various faulty cases. The simulation results were verified experimentally. Finally, the identification of the types of power components were implemented. The results show that it is possible to identify the type of components, as well as the faulty components, by comparing the amplitudes of their stray field harmonics. The identification using the stray fields is nondestructive and can be used for the setups that cannot go offline and be dismantled

Volatility transmission between stock and exchange-rate markets: A connectedness analysis

This paper empirically investigates volatility transmission among stock and foreign exchange markets in seven major world economies during the period July 1988 to January 2015. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach) using a framework recently proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each market. To gain further insights, we examine the time-varying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness during the financial turmoil periods experienced in the sample period Our results suggest that slightly more than half of the total variance of the forecast errors is explained by shocks across markets rather than by idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, we find that volatility connectedness varies over time, with a surge during periods of increasing economic and financial instability.

Pairs trading in the UK equity market: risk and return

In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive UK evidence on the profitability of the pairs trading strategy. Evidence suggests that the strategy performs well in crisis periods, so we control for both risk and liquidity to assess performance. To evaluate the effect of market frictions on the strategy, we use several estimates of transaction costs. We also present evidence on the performance of the strategy in different economic and market states. Our results show that pairs trading portfolios typically have little exposure to known equity risk factors such as market, size, value, momentum and reversal. However, a model controlling for risk and liquidity explains a far larger proportion of returns. Incorporating different assumptions about bid-ask spreads leads to reductions in performance estimates. When we allow for time-varying risk exposures, conditioned on the contemporaneous equity market return, risk-adjusted returns are generally not significantly different from zero.

Isotemporal substitution analysis for sedentary behavior and body mass index

This study examined the prospective associations of reallocating time spent in different types of sedentary behavior, physical activity, and sleep with body mass index (BMI) in children using isotemporal substitution analysis. Methods Chinese children in grades 1-3 were recruited to a cohort study in 2009 and were followed up over a 2-yr period. Reports were gathered from the parents on children's sedentary behavior, sleep duration, and sociodemographic variables. The reported sedentary behavior types were then grouped into three categories: screen time (e.g., watching TV), academic-related activities (e.g., doing homework), and other sedentary behaviors (e.g., sitting and talking). Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and light-intensity physical activity were assessed by ActiGraph accelerometry (ActiGraph, Pensacola, FL). Isotemporal substitution models were performed to examine the effects of time allocation on BMI. Results A total of 672 children (359 boys, mean age at recruitment = 7.6 yr) who had provided valid accelerometer data for at least one assessment time point were included in the analysis. Controlling for covariates and total behavior time, isotemporal substitution models indicated that the displacement of 30 min·d -1 of other sedentary behaviors with equal amounts of screen time (B = 0.12; 95% confidence interval, 0.04-0.20) or academic-related activities (B = 0.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.04-0.21) was associated with higher BMI. Reallocating 30 min·d -1 of MVPA with each of the sedentary behavior variables resulted in increased BMI. Conclusions The substitution of screen time or academic-related activities with other sedentary behaviors or MVPA was associated with lower BMI in Chinese children.

A novel approach to exponential stability of nonlinear non-autonomous difference equations with variable delays

In this paper, by using a novel approach, we first prove a new generalization of discrete-type Halanay inequality. Based on our new generalized inequality, a novel criterion for the exponential stability of a certain class of nonlinear non-autonomous difference equations is proposed. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained results.

Exponential stabilization of non-autonomous delayed neural networks via Riccati equations

This paper concerns with the problem of exponential stabilization for a class of non-autonomous neural networks with mixed discrete and distributed time-varying delays. Two cases of discrete time-varying delay, namely (i) slowly time-varying; and (ii) fast time-varying, are considered. By constructing an appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional in case (i) and utilizing the Razumikhin technique in case (ii), we establish some new delay-dependent conditions for designing a memoryless state feedback controller which stabilizes the system with an exponential convergence of the resulting closed-loop system. The proposed conditions are derived through solutions of some types of Riccati differential equations. Applications to control a class of autonomous neural networks with mixed time-varying delays are also discussed in this paper. Some numerical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained results.

Price discovery and asset pricing

This paper tests the hypothesis that price discovery influences asset pricing. Our innovations are twofold. First, we estimate time-varying price discovery for a large number (21) of Islamic stock portfolios. Second, we test using a predictive regression model whether or not price discovery predicts stock excess returns. We find from both in-sample and out-of-sample tests that all 21 portfolio excess returns are predictable. We show that a mean-variance investor by tracking price discovery is able to devise profitable trading strategies.

Autonomous formation flying: unified control and collision avoidance methods for close manoeuvring spacecraft

The idea of spacecraft formations, flying in tight configurations with maximum baselines of a few hundred meters in low-Earth orbits, has generated widespread interest over the last several years. Nevertheless, controlling the movement of spacecraft in formation poses difficulties, such as in-orbit high-computing demand and collision avoidance capabilities, which escalate as the number of units in the formation is increased and complicated nonlinear effects are imposed to the dynamics, together with uncertainty which may arise from the lack of knowledge of system parameters. These requirements have led to the need of reliable linear and nonlinear controllers in terms of relative and absolute dynamics. The objective of this thesis is, therefore, to introduce new control methods to allow spacecraft in formation, with circular/elliptical reference orbits, to efficiently execute safe autonomous manoeuvres. These controllers distinguish from the bulk of literature in that they merge guidance laws never applied before to spacecraft formation flying and collision avoidance capacities into a single control strategy. For this purpose, three control schemes are presented: linear optimal regulation, linear optimal estimation and adaptive nonlinear control. In general terms, the proposed control approaches command the dynamical performance of one or several followers with respect to a leader to asymptotically track a time-varying nominal trajectory (TVNT), while the threat of collision between the followers is reduced by repelling accelerations obtained from the collision avoidance scheme during the periods of closest proximity. Linear optimal regulation is achieved through a Riccati-based tracking controller. Within this control strategy, the controller provides guidance and tracking toward a desired TVNT, optimizing fuel consumption by Riccati procedure using a non-infinite cost function defined in terms of the desired TVNT, while repelling accelerations generated from the CAS will ensure evasive actions between the elements of the formation. The relative dynamics model, suitable for circular and eccentric low-Earth reference orbits, is based on the Tschauner and Hempel equations, and includes a control input and a nonlinear term corresponding to the CAS repelling accelerations. Linear optimal estimation is built on the forward-in-time separation principle. This controller encompasses two stages: regulation and estimation. The first stage requires the design of a full state feedback controller using the state vector reconstructed by means of the estimator. The second stage requires the design of an additional dynamical system, the estimator, to obtain the states which cannot be measured in order to approximately reconstruct the full state vector. Then, the separation principle states that an observer built for a known input can also be used to estimate the state of the system and to generate the control input. This allows the design of the observer and the feedback independently, by exploiting the advantages of linear quadratic regulator theory, in order to estimate the states of a dynamical system with model and sensor uncertainty. The relative dynamics is described with the linear system used in the previous controller, with a control input and nonlinearities entering via the repelling accelerations from the CAS during collision avoidance events. Moreover, sensor uncertainty is added to the control process by considering carrier-phase differential GPS (CDGPS) velocity measurement error. An adaptive control law capable of delivering superior closed-loop performance when compared to the certainty-equivalence (CE) adaptive controllers is finally presented. A novel noncertainty-equivalence controller based on the Immersion and Invariance paradigm for close-manoeuvring spacecraft formation flying in both circular and elliptical low-Earth reference orbits is introduced. The proposed control scheme achieves stabilization by immersing the plant dynamics into a target dynamical system (or manifold) that captures the desired dynamical behaviour. They key feature of this methodology is the addition of a new term to the classical certainty-equivalence control approach that, in conjunction with the parameter update law, is designed to achieve adaptive stabilization. This parameter has the ultimate task of shaping the manifold into which the adaptive system is immersed. The performance of the controller is proven stable via a Lyapunov-based analysis and Barbalat’s lemma. In order to evaluate the design of the controllers, test cases based on the physical and orbital features of the Prototype Research Instruments and Space Mission Technology Advancement (PRISMA) are implemented, extending the number of elements in the formation into scenarios with reconfigurations and on-orbit position switching in elliptical low-Earth reference orbits. An extensive analysis and comparison of the performance of the controllers in terms of total Δv and fuel consumption, with and without the effects of the CAS, is presented. These results show that the three proposed controllers allow the followers to asymptotically track the desired nominal trajectory and, additionally, those simulations including CAS show an effective decrease of collision risk during the performance of the manoeuvre.

A principal component approach to space-based gravitational wave astronomy

The current approach to data analysis for the Laser Interferometry Space Antenna (LISA) depends on the time delay interferometry observables (TDI) which have to be generated before any weak signal detection can be performed. These are linear combinations of the raw data with appropriate time shifts that lead to the cancellation of the laser frequency noises. This is possible because of the multiple occurrences of the same noises in the different raw data. Originally, these observables were manually generated starting with LISA as a simple stationary array and then adjusted to incorporate the antenna's motions. However, none of the observables survived the flexing of the arms in that they did not lead to cancellation with the same structure. The principal component approach is another way of handling these noises that was presented by Romano and Woan which simplified the data analysis by removing the need to create them before the analysis. This method also depends on the multiple occurrences of the same noises but, instead of using them for cancellation, it takes advantage of the correlations that they produce between the different readings. These correlations can be expressed in a noise (data) covariance matrix which occurs in the Bayesian likelihood function when the noises are assumed be Gaussian. Romano and Woan showed that performing an eigendecomposition of this matrix produced two distinct sets of eigenvalues that can be distinguished by the absence of laser frequency noise from one set. The transformation of the raw data using the corresponding eigenvectors also produced data that was free from the laser frequency noises. This result led to the idea that the principal components may actually be time delay interferometry observables since they produced the same outcome, that is, data that are free from laser frequency noise. The aims here were (i) to investigate the connection between the principal components and these observables, (ii) to prove that the data analysis using them is equivalent to that using the traditional observables and (ii) to determine how this method adapts to real LISA especially the flexing of the antenna. For testing the connection between the principal components and the TDI observables a 10x 10 covariance matrix containing integer values was used in order to obtain an algebraic solution for the eigendecomposition. The matrix was generated using fixed unequal arm lengths and stationary noises with equal variances for each noise type. Results confirm that all four Sagnac observables can be generated from the eigenvectors of the principal components. The observables obtained from this method however, are tied to the length of the data and are not general expressions like the traditional observables, for example, the Sagnac observables for two different time stamps were generated from different sets of eigenvectors. It was also possible to generate the frequency domain optimal AET observables from the principal components obtained from the power spectral density matrix. These results indicate that this method is another way of producing the observables therefore analysis using principal components should give the same results as that using the traditional observables. This was proven by fact that the same relative likelihoods (within 0.3%) were obtained from the Bayesian estimates of the signal amplitude of a simple sinusoidal gravitational wave using the principal components and the optimal AET observables. This method fails if the eigenvalues that are free from laser frequency noises are not generated. These are obtained from the covariance matrix and the properties of LISA that are required for its computation are the phase-locking, arm lengths and noise variances. Preliminary results of the effects of these properties on the principal components indicate that only the absence of phase-locking prevented their production. The flexing of the antenna results in time varying arm lengths which will appear in the covariance matrix and, from our toy model investigations, this did not prevent the occurrence of the principal components. The difficulty with flexing, and also non-stationary noises, is that the Toeplitz structure of the matrix will be destroyed which will affect any computation methods that take advantage of this structure. In terms of separating the two sets of data for the analysis, this was not necessary because the laser frequency noises are very large compared to the photodetector noises which resulted in a significant reduction in the data containing them after the matrix inversion. In the frequency domain the power spectral density matrices were block diagonals which simplified the computation of the eigenvalues by allowing them to be done separately for each block. The results in general showed a lack of principal components in the absence of phase-locking except for the zero bin. The major difference with the power spectral density matrix is that the time varying arm lengths and non-stationarity do not show up because of the summation in the Fourier transform.