Assessing societal vulnerability of U.S. Pacific Northwest communities to storm induced coastal change

Progressive increases in storm intensities and extreme wave heights have been documented along the U.S. West Coast. Paired with global sea level rise and the potential for an increase in El Niño occurrences, these trends have substantial implications for the vulnerability of coastal communities to natural coastal hazards. Community vulnerability to hazards is characterized by the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of human-environmental systems that influence potential impacts. To demonstrate how societal vulnerability to coastal hazards varies with both physical and social factors, we compared community exposure and sensitivity to storm-induced coastal change scenarios in Tillamook (Oregon) and Pacific (Washington) Counties. While both are backed by low-lying coastal dunes, communities in these two counties have experienced different shoreline change histories and have chosen to use the adjacent land in different ways. Therefore, community vulnerability varies significantly between the two counties. Identifying the reasons for this variability can help land-use managers make decisions to increase community resilience and reduce vulnerability in spite of a changing climate. (PDF contains 4 pages)

The South Atlantic Alliance: A southeastern U.S. state Governors initiative to address opportunities and challenges embodied in the region's coastal and ocean domain

The pressures placed on the natural, environmental, economic, and cultural sectors from continued growth, population shifts, weather and climate, and environmental quality are increasing exponentially in the southeastern U.S. region. Our growing understanding of the relationship of humans with the marine environment is leading us to explore new ecosystem-based approaches to coastal management, marine resources planning, and coastal adaptation that engages multiple state jurisdictions. The urgency of the situation calls for coordinated regional actions by the states, in conjunction with supporting partners and leveraging a diversity of resources, to address critical issues in sustaining our coastal and ocean ecosystems and enhancing the quality of life of our citizens. The South Atlantic Alliance (www.southatlanticalliance.org) was formally established on October 19, 2009 to “implement science-based policies and solutions that enhance and protect the value of coastal and ocean resources of the southeastern United States which support the region's culture and economy now and for future generations.” The Alliance, which includes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, will provide a regional mechanism for collaborating, coordinating, and sharing information in support of resource sustainability; improved regional alignment; cooperative planning and leveraging of resources; integrated research, observations, and mapping; increased awareness of the challenges facing the South Atlantic region; and inclusiveness and integration at all levels. Although I am preparing and presenting this overview of the South Atlantic Alliance and its current status, there are a host of representatives from agencies within the four states, universities, NGOs, and ongoing southeastern regional ocean and coastal programs that are contributing significant time, expertise, and energy to the success of the Alliance; information presented herein and to be presented in my oral presentation was generated by the collaborative efforts of these professionals. I also wish to acknowledge the wisdom and foresight of the Governors of the four states in establishing this exciting regional ocean partnership. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Socio-economic vulnerability of African Americans in the Gulf coast counties

The states bordering the Gulf of Mexico i.e. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida have been historically devastated by hurricanes and tropical storms. A large number of African Americans live in these southern Gulf States which have high percentages of minorities in terms of total population. According to the U.S. Census, the total black population in the United States is about 40.7 million and about one-fourth of them live in these five Gulf States (U.S. Census, 2008). As evidenced from Hurricane Katrina and other major hurricanes, lowincome and under-served communities are usually the hardest hit during these disasters. The aim of this study is to identify and visualize socio-economic vulnerability of the African American population at the county level living in the hurricane risk areas of these five Gulf States. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Panel discussion: U.S. EPA using modeling and ecosystem services to enhance coastal decision making

This panel will discuss the research being conducted, and the models being used in three current coastal EPA studies being conducted on ecosystem services in Tampa Bay, the Chesapeake Bay and the Coastal Carolinas. These studies are intended to provide a broader and more comprehensive approach to policy and decision-making affecting coastal ecosystems as well as provide an account of valued services that have heretofore been largely unrecognized. Interim research products, including updated and integrated spatial data, models and model frameworks, and interactive decision support systems will be demonstrated to engage potential users and to elicit feedback. It is anticipated that the near-term impact of the projects will be to increase the awareness by coastal communities and coastal managers of the implications of their actions and to foster partnerships for ecosystem services research and applications. (PDF contains 4 pages)

An examination of strategic opportunities provided by the conference committee procedure in the U.S. Congress

Deference to committees in Congress has been a much studied phenomena for close to 100 years. This deference can be characterized as the unwillingness of a potentially winning coalition on the House floor to impose its will on a small minority, a standing committee. The congressional scholar is then faced with two problems: observing such deference to committees, and explaining it. Shepsle and Weingast have proposed the existence of an ex-post veto for standing committees as an explanation of committee deference. They claim that as conference reports in the House and Senate are considered under a rule that does not allow amendments, the conferees enjoy agenda-setting power. In this paper I describe a test of such a hypothesis (along with competing hypotheses regarding the effects of the conference procedure). A random-utility model is utilized to estimate legislators' ideal points on appropriations bills from 1973 through 1980. I prove two things: 1) that committee deference can not be said to be a result of the conference procedure; and moreover 2) that committee deference does not appear to exist at all.

The role of women in fisheries activities in some selected fishing villages in the southern zone of Kainji Lake basin

Questionnaires containing 39 questions were prepared and administered to 50 women in ten fishing villages in the Southern Kainji Lake Basin to assess the level of women participation in fisheries activities. Results showed that 100% of the women interviewed were involved in fisheries activities and the following factors were considered. Age group between 20-30 years was 18%; 31-40 years; 30%; and above 40 years had the highest percentage of 40%. Also 98% of the women involve in fisheries activities were married while only 2% were not married. Muslin women constituted 82% while 18% were Christians. About 70% of Hausas were involved: no Igbos and Yorubas, while 30% were other tribes, which included Ijaws, Isokos and Urohobos. The percentage of women without education amounted to 62%, those women with Koranic education accounted for 22%, 14% had primary education while only 2% had secondary education. Few women were directly involved in fishing and statistical analysis showed that there was insignificant difference from village to village. All the women (100%) were involved in fish processing and storage (preservation) before sale. Only 26% of the women were not involved in fish marketing. Also 26% of the women made profits ranging from N500 to N1,000 per week, 24% make N1,000 to N1,500 per week, 12% made N1,500 to N2,000 and 38% made profit above N2,000. Statistical analysis showed that there was a significant difference in the profit made by the women (P<0.05) from the foregoing, women were actively involved in all fisheries activities

Crustal structure in Southern California from array data

Crustal structure in Southern California is investigated using travel times from over 200 stations and thousands of local earthquakes. The data are divided into two sets of first arrivals representing a two-layer crust. The Pg arrivals have paths that refract at depths near 10 km and the Pn arrivals refract along the Moho discontinuity. These data are used to find lateral and azimuthal refractor velocity variations and to determine refractor topography.

In Chapter 2 the Pn raypaths are modeled using linear inverse theory. This enables statistical verification that static delays, lateral slowness variations and anisotropy are all significant parameters. However, because of the inherent size limitations of inverse theory, the full array data set could not be processed and the possible resolution was limited. The tomographic backprojection algorithm developed for Chapters 3 and 4 avoids these size problems. This algorithm allows us to process the data sequentially and to iteratively refine the solution. The variance and resolution for tomography are determined empirically using synthetic structures.

The Pg results spectacularly image the San Andreas Fault, the Garlock Fault and the San Jacinto Fault. The Mojave has slower velocities near 6.0 km/s while the Peninsular Ranges have higher velocities of over 6.5 km/s. The San Jacinto block has velocities only slightly above the Mojave velocities. It may have overthrust Mojave rocks. Surprisingly, the Transverse Ranges are not apparent at Pg depths. The batholiths in these mountains are possibly only surficial.

Pn velocities are fast in the Mojave, slow in Southern California Peninsular Ranges and slow north of the Garlock Fault. Pn anisotropy of 2% with a NWW fast direction exists in Southern California. A region of thin crust (22 km) centers around the Colorado River where the crust bas undergone basin and range type extension. Station delays see the Ventura and Los Angeles Basins but not the Salton Trough, where high velocity rocks underlie the sediments. The Transverse Ranges have a root in their eastern half but not in their western half. The Southern Coast Ranges also have a thickened crust but the Peninsular Ranges have no major root.

Seismic reflection experiments imaging the physical nature of crustal structures in southern California

Seismic reflection methods have been extensively used to probe the Earth's crust and suggest the nature of its formative processes. The analysis of multi-offset seismic reflection data extends the technique from a reconnaissance method to a powerful scientific tool that can be applied to test specific hypotheses. The treatment of reflections at multiple offsets becomes tractable if the assumptions of high-frequency rays are valid for the problem being considered. Their validity can be tested by applying the methods of analysis to full wave synthetics.

Three studies illustrate the application of these principles to investigations of the nature of the crust in southern California. A survey shot by the COCORP consortium in 1977 across the San Andreas fault near Parkfield revealed events in the record sections whose arrival time decreased with offset. The reflectors generating these events are imaged using a multi-offset three-dimensional Kirchhoff migration. Migrations of full wave acoustic synthetics having the same limitations in geometric coverage as the field survey demonstrate the utility of this back projection process for imaging. The migrated depth sections show the locations of the major physical boundaries of the San Andreas fault zone. The zone is bounded on the southwest by a near-vertical fault juxtaposing a Tertiary sedimentary section against uplifted crystalline rocks of the fault zone block. On the northeast, the fault zone is bounded by a fault dipping into the San Andreas, which includes slices of serpentinized ultramafics, intersecting it at 3 km depth. These interpretations can be made despite complications introduced by lateral heterogeneities.

In 1985 the Calcrust consortium designed a survey in the eastern Mojave desert to image structures in both the shallow and the deep crust. Preliminary field experiments showed that the major geophysical acquisition problem to be solved was the poor penetration of seismic energy through a low-velocity surface layer. Its effects could be mitigated through special acquisition and processing techniques. Data obtained from industry showed that quality data could be obtained from areas having a deeper, older sedimentary cover, causing a re-definition of the geologic objectives. Long offset stationary arrays were designed to provide reversed, wider angle coverage of the deep crust over parts of the survey. The preliminary field tests and constant monitoring of data quality and parameter adjustment allowed 108 km of excellent crustal data to be obtained.

This dataset, along with two others from the central and western Mojave, was used to constrain rock properties and the physical condition of the crust. The multi-offset analysis proceeded in two steps. First, an increase in reflection peak frequency with offset is indicative of a thinly layered reflector. The thickness and velocity contrast of the layering can be calculated from the spectral dispersion, to discriminate between structures resulting from broad scale or local effects. Second, the amplitude effects at different offsets of P-P scattering from weak elastic heterogeneities indicate whether the signs of the changes in density, rigidity, and Lame's parameter at the reflector agree or are opposed. The effects of reflection generation and propagation in a heterogeneous, anisotropic crust were contained by the design of the experiment and the simplicity of the observed amplitude and frequency trends. Multi-offset spectra and amplitude trend stacks of the three Mojave Desert datasets suggest that the most reflective structures in the middle crust are strong Poisson's ratio (σ) contrasts. Porous zones or the juxtaposition of units of mutually distant origin are indicated. Heterogeneities in σ increase towards the top of a basal crustal zone at ~22 km depth. The transition to the basal zone and to the mantle include increases in σ. The Moho itself includes ~400 m layering having a velocity higher than that of the uppermost mantle. The Moho maintains the same configuration across the Mojave despite 5 km of crustal thinning near the Colorado River. This indicates that Miocene extension there either thinned just the basal zone, or that the basal zone developed regionally after the extensional event.

Time for a Sea Change: a Study of the Effectiveness of Biodiversity Conservation Measures and Marine Protected Areas Along Southern Thailand’s Andaman Sea Coastline

This study examines how Thailand’s biodiversity conservation measures affect fishing communities, especially in the marine protected areas (MPAs) on the Andaman Sea coastline. It documents the various efforts of the local fishing communities to protect the resources in the area. Also included are recommendations for government agencies, civil society and the international community. [PDF contains 94 pages]

Studies of ambient organic and inorganic aerosol in Southern California

The negative impacts of ambient aerosol particles, or particulate matter (PM), on human health and climate are well recognized. However, owing to the complexity of aerosol particle formation and chemical evolution, emissions control strategies remain difficult to develop in a cost effective manner. In this work, three studies are presented to address several key issues currently stymieing California's efforts to continue improving its air quality.

Gas-phase organic mass (GPOM) and CO emission factors are used in conjunction with measured enhancements in oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA) relative to CO to quantify the significant lack of closure between expected and observed organic aerosol concentrations attributable to fossil-fuel emissions. Two possible conclusions emerge from the analysis to yield consistency with the ambient organic data: (1) vehicular emissions are not a dominant source of anthropogenic fossil SOA in the Los Angeles Basin, or (2) the ambient SOA mass yields used to determine the SOA formation potential of vehicular emissions are substantially higher than those derived from laboratory chamber studies. Additional laboratory chamber studies confirm that, owing to vapor-phase wall loss, the SOA mass yields currently used in virtually all 3D chemical transport models are biased low by as much as a factor of 4. Furthermore, predictions from the Statistical Oxidation Model suggest that this bias could be as high as a factor of 8 if the influence of the chamber walls could be removed entirely.

Once vapor-phase wall loss has been accounted for in a new suite of laboratory chamber experiments, the SOA parameterizations within atmospheric chemical transport models should also be updated. To address the numerical challenges of implementing the next generation of SOA models in atmospheric chemical transport models, a novel mathematical framework, termed the Moment Method, is designed and presented. Assessment of the Moment Method strengths and weaknesses provide valuable insight that can guide future development of SOA modules for atmospheric CTMs.

Finally, regional inorganic aerosol formation and evolution is investigated via detailed comparison of predictions from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ version 4.7.1) model against a suite of airborne and ground-based meteorological measurements, gas- and aerosol-phase inorganic measurements, and black carbon (BC) measurements over Southern California during the CalNex field campaign in May/June 2010. Results suggests that continuing to target sulfur emissions with the hopes of reducing ambient PM concentrations may not the most effective strategy for Southern California. Instead, targeting dairy emissions is likely to be an effective strategy for substantially reducing ammonium nitrate concentrations in the eastern part of the Los Angeles Basin.

The Determinants of Energy Efficiency Investments in the U.S.

31 p.

Origin of Th/U variations in chondritic meteorites

Isotope dilution thorium and uranium analyses of the Harleton chondrite show a larger scatter than previously observed in equilibrated ordinary chondrites (EOC). The linear correlation of Th/U with 1/U in Harleton (and all EOC data) is produced by variation in the chlorapatite to merrillite mixing ratio. Apatite variations control the U concentrations. Phosphorus variations are compensated by inverse variations in U to preserve the Th/U vs. 1/U correlation. Because the Th/U variations reflect phosphate ampling, a weighted Th/U average should converge to an improved solar system Th/U. We obtain Th/U=3.53 (1_-mean=0.10), significantly lower and more precise than previous estimates.

To test whether apatite also produces Th/U variation in CI and CM chondrites, we performed P analyses on the solutions from leaching experiments of Orgueil and Murchison meteorites.

A linear Th/U vs. 1/U correlation in CI can be explained by redistribution of hexavalent U by aqueous fluids into carbonates and sulfates.

Unlike CI and EOC, whole rock Th/U variations in CMs are mostly due to Th variations. A Th/U vs. 1/U linear correlation suggested by previous data for CMs is not real. We distinguish 4 components responsible for the whole rock Th/U variations: (1) P and actinide-depleted matrix containing small amounts of U-rich carbonate/sulfate phases (similar to CIs); (2) CAIs and (3) chondrules are major reservoirs for actinides, (4) an easily leachable phase of high Th/U. likely carbonate produced by CAI alteration. Phosphates play a minor role as actinide and P carrier phases in CM chondrites.

Using our Th/U and minimum galactic ages from halo globular clusters, we calculate relative supernovae production rates for ²³²Th/²³⁸U and ²³⁵U/²³⁸U for different models of r-process nucleosynthesis. For uniform galactic production, the beginning of the r-process nucleosynthesis must be less than 13 Gyr. Exponentially decreasing production is also consistent with a 13 Gyr age, but very slow decay times are required (less than 35 Gyr), approaching the uniform production. The 15 Gyr Galaxy requires either a fast initial production growth (infall time constant less than 0.5 Gyr) followed by very low decrease (decay time constant greater than 100 Gyr), or the fastest possible decrease (≈8 Gyr) preceded by slow in fall (≈7.5 Gyr).