A catch-free stock assessment model with application to goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara) off southern Florida

Many modern stock assessment methods provide the machinery for determining the status of a stock in relation to certain reference points and for estimating how quickly a stock can be rebuilt. However, these methods typically require catch data, which are not always available. We introduce a model-based framework for estimating reference points, stock status, and recovery times in situations where catch data and other measures of absolute abundance are unavailable. The specif ic estimator developed is essentially an age-structured production model recast in terms relative to pre-exploitation levels. A Bayesian estimation scheme is adopted to allow the incorporation of pertinent auxiliary information such as might be obtained from meta-analyses of similar stocks or anecdotal observations. The approach is applied to the population of goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara) off southern Florida, for which there are three indices of relative abundance but no reliable catch data. The results confirm anecdotal accounts of a marked decline in abundance during the 1980s followed by a substantial increase after the harvest of goliath grouper was banned in 1990. The ban appears to have reduced fishing pressure to between 10% and 50% of the levels observed during the 1980s. Nevertheless, the predicted fishing mortality rate under the ban appears to remain substantial, perhaps owing to illegal harvest and depth-related release mortality. As a result, the base model predicts that there is less than a 40% chance that the spawning biomass will recover to a level that would produce a 50% spawning potential ratio.

Sources of variability in the free-ball micro-scale abrasion test

In the 'free-ball' version of the micro-scale abrasion or ball-cratering test the rotating ball rests against a tilted sample and a grooved drive shaft. Tests under nominally identical conditions with different apparatus commonly show small but significant differences in measured wear rate. An indirect method has been developed and demonstrated for continuous on-line measurement of the coefficient of friction in the free-ball test. Experimental investigation of the effects of sample tilt angle and drive shaft groove width shows that both these factors influence the stability of the rotation of the ball, and the shape of the abrasive slurry pool, which in turn affect the coefficient of friction in the wear scar area and the measured wear rate. It is suggested that in order to improve the reproducibility of this method the geometry of the apparatus should be specified. For the apparatus used in this work with a steel ball of 25 mm diameter, a sample tilt angle of 60-75° and a shaft groove width of about 10mm provided the most stable ball motion and a wear rate which showed least variability. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.