Timing of bacterial carriage sampling in vaccine trials: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Estimates of vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional carriage data collected in RCTs are usually based on prevalence odds ratios (PORs) and prevalence ratios (PRs), but it is unclear when these should be measured. METHODS We developed dynamic compartmental transmission models simulating RCTs of a vaccine against a carried pathogen to investigate how VE can best be estimated from cross-sectional carriage data, at which time carriage should optimally be assessed, and to which factors this timing is most sensitive. In the models, vaccine could change carriage acquisition and clearance rates (leaky vaccine); values for these effects were explicitly defined (facq, 1/fdur). POR and PR were calculated from model outputs. Models differed in infection source: other participants or external sources unaffected by the trial. Simulations using multiple vaccine doses were compared to empirical data. RESULTS The combined VE against acquisition and duration calculated using POR (VEˆacq.dur, (1-POR)×100) best estimates the true VE (VEacq.dur, (1-facq×fdur)×100) for leaky vaccines in most scenarios. The mean duration of carriage was the most important factor determining the time until VEˆacq.dur first approximates VEacq.dur: if the mean duration of carriage is 1-1.5 months, up to 4 months are needed; if the mean duration is 2-3 months, up to 8 months are needed. Minor differences were seen between models with different infection sources. In RCTs with shorter intervals between vaccine doses it takes longer after the last dose until VEˆacq.dur approximates VEacq.dur. CONCLUSION The timing of sample collection should be considered when interpreting vaccine efficacy against bacterial carriage measured in RCTs.

Validation and reclassification of MGAP and GAP in hospital settings using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network.

BACKGROUND Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting. METHODS This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories. RESULTS A total of 79,807 adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low- and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve. CONCLUSION We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level II.

Immunization against gonadotropin-releasing hormone in dairy cattle: Antibody titers, ovarian function, hormonal levels, and reversibility

Suppression of cyclic activity in cattle is often desired in alpine farming and for feedlot cattle not intended for breeding. A cattle-specific anti-GnRH vaccination (Bopriva, Zoetis Australia Ltd., West Ryde, Australia) is approved for use in heifers and bulls in New Zealand, Australia, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, and Peru. Eleven healthy, cyclic Swiss Fleckvieh cows were included in the study and vaccinated twice with Bopriva 4wk apart. Injection site, rectal body temperature, and heart and respiratory rates were recorded before and 3d following each vaccination. Blood samples were taken weekly for progesterone and estrogen analysis and to determine GnRH antibody titer. Ovaries were examined weekly, using ultrasound to count the number of follicles and identify the presence of a corpus luteum. Thirty weeks after the first vaccination, the cows were subjected to a controlled internal drug-releasing device-based Select-Synch treatment. The GnRH antibody titers increased after the second vaccination and peaked 2wk later. Estrogen levels were not influenced by vaccination, and progesterone level decreased in 7 of 11 cows up to 3wk after the second vaccination and remained low for 10 to 15wk following the second vaccination. The number of class I follicles (diameter ≤5mm) was not influenced by vaccination, whereas the number of class II follicles (diameter 6-9mm) decreased between 7 and 16wk after the first vaccination. Class III follicles (diameter >9mm) were totally absent during this period in most cows. The median period until recurrence of class III follicles was 78d from the day of the second vaccination (95% confidence interval: 60-92d). After vaccination, all cows showed swelling and pain at the injection site, and these reactions subsided within 2wk. Body temperature and heart and respiratory rates increased after the first and second vaccinations and returned to normal values within 2d of each vaccination. The cows in our study were not observed to display estrus behavior until 30wk after the first vaccination. Therefore, a Select-Synch protocol was initiated at that time. Ten cows became pregnant after the first insemination (the remaining cow was reinseminated once until confirmed pregnancy). Bopriva induced a reliable and reversible suppression of reproductive cyclicity for more than 2mo. The best practical predictor for the length of the anestrus period was the absence of class III follicles.

Effect of standardized training on the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool: a study protocol

BACKGROUND The Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tool has been widely embraced by the systematic review community, but several studies have reported that its reliability is low. We aim to investigate whether training of raters, including objective and standardized instructions on how to assess risk of bias, can improve the reliability of this tool. We describe the methods that will be used in this investigation and present an intensive standardized training package for risk of bias assessment that could be used by contributors to the Cochrane Collaboration and other reviewers. METHODS/DESIGN This is a pilot study. We will first perform a systematic literature review to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that will be used for risk of bias assessment. Using the identified RCTs, we will then do a randomized experiment, where raters will be allocated to two different training schemes: minimal training and intensive standardized training. We will calculate the chance-corrected weighted Kappa with 95% confidence intervals to quantify within- and between-group Kappa agreement for each of the domains of the risk of bias tool. To calculate between-group Kappa agreement, we will use risk of bias assessments from pairs of raters after resolution of disagreements. Between-group Kappa agreement will quantify the agreement between the risk of bias assessment of raters in the training groups and the risk of bias assessment of experienced raters. To compare agreement of raters under different training conditions, we will calculate differences between Kappa values with 95% confidence intervals. DISCUSSION This study will investigate whether the reliability of the risk of bias tool can be improved by training raters using standardized instructions for risk of bias assessment. One group of inexperienced raters will receive intensive training on risk of bias assessment and the other will receive minimal training. By including a control group with minimal training, we will attempt to mimic what many review authors commonly have to do, that is-conduct risk of bias assessment in RCTs without much formal training or standardized instructions. If our results indicate that an intense standardized training does improve the reliability of the RoB tool, our study is likely to help improve the quality of risk of bias assessments, which is a central component of evidence synthesis.

Biolimus-eluting stent with biodegradable polymer improves clinical outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE To investigate clinical outcomes of coronary intervention using a biolimus-eluting stent (BES) compared with a sirolimus-eluting stent (SES) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the Limus Eluted from A Durable versus ERodable Stent (LEADERS) coating trial at the final 5-year follow-up. METHODS The LEADERS trial is a multicentre all-comer study, where patients (n=1707) were randomised to percutaneous intervention with either BES containing biodegradable polymer or SES containing durable polymer. Out of 1707 patients enrolled in this trial, 573 patients had percutaneous coronary intervention for AMI (BES=280, SES=293) and were included in the current analysis. Patient-oriented composite endpoint (POCE, including all death, all myocardial infarction (MI) and all revascularisations), major adverse cardiac events (MACE, including cardiac death, MI and clinically indicated target vessel revascularisation) and stent thrombosis were assessed at 5-year follow-up. RESULTS The baseline clinical, angiographic and procedural characteristics were well matched between BES and SES groups. In all patients with AMI, coronary intervention with a BES, compared with SES, significantly reduced POCE (28.9% vs 42.3%; relative risk (RR) 0.61, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.82, p=0.001) at 5-year follow-up. There was also a reduction in MACE rate in the BES group (18.2% vs 25.9%; RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.95, p=0.025); however, there was no difference in cardiac death and stent thrombosis. In patients with ST-elevation MI (STEMI), coronary intervention with BES significantly reduced POCE (24.4% vs 39.3%; RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.85, p=0.006), MACE (12.6% vs 25.0%; RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.83, p=0.008) and cardiac death (3.0% vs 11.4%; RR 0.25, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.75, p=0.007), along with a trend towards reduction in definite stent thrombosis (3.7% vs 8.6%; RR 0.41, 95% CI 0.15 to 1.18, p=0.088), compared with SES. CONCLUSIONS BES, compared with SES, significantly improved safety and efficacy outcomes in patients with AMI, especially those with STEMI, at 5-year follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT 00389220.

Additive effect of anemia and renal impairment on long-term outcome after percutaneous coronary intervention

INTRODUCTION Anemia and renal impairment are important co-morbidities among patients with coronary artery disease undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI). Disease progression to eventual death can be understood as the combined effect of baseline characteristics and intermediate outcomes. METHODS Using data from a prospective cohort study, we investigated clinical pathways reflecting the transitions from PCI through intermediate ischemic or hemorrhagic events to all-cause mortality in a multi-state analysis as a function of anemia (hemoglobin concentration <120 g/l and <130 g/l, for women and men, respectively) and renal impairment (creatinine clearance <60 ml/min) at baseline. RESULTS Among 6029 patients undergoing PCI, anemia and renal impairment were observed isolated or in combination in 990 (16.4%), 384 (6.4%), and 309 (5.1%) patients, respectively. The most frequent transition was from PCI to death (6.7%, 95% CI 6.1-7.3), followed by ischemic events (4.8%, 95 CI 4.3-5.4) and bleeding (3.4%, 95% CI 3.0-3.9). Among patients with both anemia and renal impairment, the risk of death was increased 4-fold as compared to the reference group (HR 3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.4) and roughly doubled as compared to patients with either anemia (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.2) or renal impairment (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.9) alone. Hazard ratios indicated an increased risk of bleeding in all three groups compared to patients with neither anemia nor renal impairment. CONCLUSIONS Applying a multi-state model we found evidence for a gradient of risk for the composite of bleeding, ischemic events, or death as a function of hemoglobin value and estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline.

Active surveillance for rheumatic heart disease in endemic regions: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence among children and adolescents

BACKGROUND Rheumatic heart disease accounts for up to 250 000 premature deaths every year worldwide and can be regarded as a physical manifestation of poverty and social inequality. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in endemic countries as assessed by different screening modalities and as a function of age. METHODS We searched Medline, Embase, the Latin American and Caribbean System on Health Sciences Information, African Journals Online, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for population-based studies published between Jan 1, 1993, and June 30, 2014, that reported on prevalence of rheumatic heart disease among children and adolescents (≥5 years to <18 years). We assessed prevalence of clinically silent and clinically manifest rheumatic heart disease in random effects meta-analyses according to screening modality and geographical region. We assessed the association between social inequality and rheumatic heart disease with the Gini coefficient. We used Poisson regression to analyse the effect of age on prevalence of rheumatic heart disease and estimated the incidence of rheumatic heart disease from prevalence data. FINDINGS We included 37 populations in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of rheumatic heart disease detected by cardiac auscultation was 2·9 per 1000 people (95% CI 1·7-5·0) and by echocardiography it was 12·9 per 1000 people (8·9-18·6), with substantial heterogeneity between individual reports for both screening modalities (I(2)=99·0% and 94·9%, respectively). We noted an association between social inequality expressed by the Gini coefficient and prevalence of rheumatic heart disease (p=0·0002). The prevalence of clinically silent rheumatic heart disease (21·1 per 1000 people, 95% CI 14·1-31·4) was about seven to eight times higher than that of clinically manifest disease (2·7 per 1000 people, 1·6-4·4). Prevalence progressively increased with advancing age, from 4·7 per 1000 people (95% CI 0·0-11·2) at age 5 years to 21·0 per 1000 people (6·8-35·1) at 16 years. The estimated incidence was 1·6 per 1000 people (0·8-2·3) and remained constant across age categories (range 2·5, 95% CI 1·3-3·7 in 5-year-old children to 1·7, 0·0-5·1 in 15-year-old adolescents). We noted no sex-related differences in prevalence (p=0·829). INTERPRETATION We found a high prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in endemic countries. Although a reduction in social inequalities represents the cornerstone of community-based prevention, the importance of early detection of silent rheumatic heart disease remains to be further assessed. FUNDING UBS Optimus Foundation.

Association of radiographic osteoarthritis, pain on passive movement and knee range of motion: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND Knee pain is associated with radiographic knee osteoarthritis, but the relationships between physical examination, pain and radiographic features are unclear. OBJECTIVE To examine whether deficits in knee extension or flexion were associated with radiographic severity and pain during clinical examination in persons with knee pain or radiographic features of osteoarthritis. DESIGN Cross-sectional data of the Somerset and Avon Survey of Health (SASH) cohort study. METHODS Participants with knee pain or radiographic features of osteoarthritis were included. We assessed the range of passive knee flexion and extension, pain on movement and Kellgren and Lawrence (K/L) grades. Odds ratios were calculated for the association between range of motion and pain as well as radiographic severity. RESULTS/FINDINGS Of 1117 participants with a clinical assessment, 805 participants and 1530 knees had complete data and were used for this analysis. Pain and radiographic changes were associated with limited range of motion. In knees with pain on passive movement, extension and flexion were reduced per one grade of K/L by -1.4° (95% CI -2.2 to -0.5) and -1.6° (95% CI -2.8 to -0.4), while in knees without pain the reduction was -0.3° (95% CI -0.6 to -0.1) (extension) and -1.1° (-1.8 to -0.3) (flexion). The interaction of pain with K/L was significant (p = 0.021) for extension but not for flexion (p = 0.333). CONCLUSIONS Pain during passive movement, which may be an indicator of reversible soft-tissue changes, e.g., reversible through physical therapy, is independently associated with reduced flexion and extension of the knee.

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of randomized trials: principles and pitfalls

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses allow for a more transparent and objective appraisal of the evidence. They may decrease the number of false-negative results and prevent delays in the introduction of effective interventions into clinical practice. However, as for any other tool, their misuse can result in severely misleading results. In this article, we discuss the main steps that should be taken when conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses, namely the preparation of a review protocol, identification of eligible trials, and data extraction, pooling of treatment effects across trials, investigation of potential reasons for differences in treatment effects across trials, and complete reporting of the review methods and findings. We also discuss common pitfalls that should be avoided, including the use of quality assessment tools to derive summary quality scores, pooling of data across trials as if they belonged to a single large trial, and inappropriate uses of meta-regression that could result in misleading estimates of treatment effects because of regression to the mean or the ecological fallacy. If conducted and reported properly, systematic reviews and meta-analyses will increase our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the available evidence, which may eventually facilitate clinical decision making.

Sono-Electro-Magnetic Therapy for Treating Chronic Pelvic Pain Syndrome in Men: A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Double-Blind Trial.

OBJECTIVE To assess the efficacy and safety of sono-electro-magnetic therapy compared to placebo in men with refractory CPPS. PATIENTS AND METHODS In a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind single center trial, we assessed the effect of sono-electro-magnetic therapy in men with treatment refractory CPPS. Sixty male patients were randomly assigned to treatment with either sono-electro-magnetic (n = 30) or placebo therapy (n = 30) for 12 weeks. The primary outcome was a change in the National Institutes of Health Chronic Prostatitis Symptom Index (NIH-CPSI) from baseline to 12 weeks. RESULTS The 12-week difference between sono-electro-magnetic and placebo therapy in changes of the NIH-CPSI total score was -3.1 points (95% CI -6.8 to 0.6, p = 0.11). In secondary comparisons of NIH-CPSI sub-scores, we found differences between groups most pronounced for the quality-of-life sub-score (difference at 12 weeks -1.6, 95% CI -2.8 to -0.4, p = 0.015). In stratified analyses, the benefit of sono-electro-magnetic therapy appeared more pronounced among patients who had a symptom duration of 12 months or less (difference in NIH-CPSI total score -8.3, 95% CI -14.5 to 2.6) than in patients with a longer symptom duration (-0.8, 95% CI -4.6 to 3.1; p for interaction = 0.023). CONCLUSIONS Sono-electro-magnetic therapy did not result in a significant improvement of symptoms in the overall cohort of treatment refractory CPPS patients compared to placebo treatment. Subgroup analysis indicates, however, that patients with a symptom-duration of 12 months or less may benefit from sono-electro-magnetic therapy, warranting larger randomized controlled trials in this subpopulation. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00688506.

Characteristics and comprehensiveness of adult HIV care and treatment programmes in Asia-Pacific, sub-Saharan Africa and the Americas: results of a site assessment conducted by the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Collaboration

INTRODUCTION HIV care and treatment programmes worldwide are transforming as they push to deliver universal access to essential prevention, care and treatment services to persons living with HIV and their communities. The characteristics and capacity of these HIV programmes affect patient outcomes and quality of care. Despite the importance of ensuring optimal outcomes, few studies have addressed the capacity of HIV programmes to deliver comprehensive care. We sought to describe such capacity in HIV programmes in seven regions worldwide. METHODS Staff from 128 sites in 41 countries participating in the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS completed a site survey from 2009 to 2010, including sites in the Asia-Pacific region (n=20), Latin America and the Caribbean (n=7), North America (n=7), Central Africa (n=12), East Africa (n=51), Southern Africa (n=16) and West Africa (n=15). We computed a measure of the comprehensiveness of care based on seven World Health Organization-recommended essential HIV services. RESULTS Most sites reported serving urban (61%; region range (rr): 33-100%) and both adult and paediatric populations (77%; rr: 29-96%). Only 45% of HIV clinics that reported treating children had paediatricians on staff. As for the seven essential services, survey respondents reported that CD4+ cell count testing was available to all but one site, while tuberculosis (TB) screening and community outreach services were available in 80 and 72%, respectively. The remaining four essential services - nutritional support (82%), combination antiretroviral therapy adherence support (88%), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) (94%) and other prevention and clinical management services (97%) - were uniformly available. Approximately half (46%) of sites reported offering all seven services. Newer sites and sites in settings with low rankings on the UN Human Development Index (HDI), especially those in the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief focus countries, tended to offer a more comprehensive array of essential services. HIV care programme characteristics and comprehensiveness varied according to the number of years the site had been in operation and the HDI of the site setting, with more recently established clinics in low-HDI settings reporting a more comprehensive array of available services. Survey respondents frequently identified contact tracing of patients, patient outreach, nutritional counselling, onsite viral load testing, universal TB screening and the provision of isoniazid preventive therapy as unavailable services. CONCLUSIONS This study serves as a baseline for on-going monitoring of the evolution of care delivery over time and lays the groundwork for evaluating HIV treatment outcomes in relation to site capacity for comprehensive care.

Quantifying the turnover of transcriptional subclasses of HIV-1-infected cells

HIV-1-infected cells in peripheral blood can be grouped into different transcriptional subclasses. Quantifying the turnover of these cellular subclasses can provide important insights into the viral life cycle and the generation and maintenance of latently infected cells. We used previously published data from five patients chronically infected with HIV-1 that initiated combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Patient-matched PCR for unspliced and multiply spliced viral RNAs combined with limiting dilution analysis provided measurements of transcriptional profiles at the single cell level. Furthermore, measurement of intracellular transcripts and extracellular virion-enclosed HIV-1 RNA allowed us to distinguish productive from non-productive cells. We developed a mathematical model describing the dynamics of plasma virus and the transcriptional subclasses of HIV-1-infected cells. Fitting the model to the data allowed us to better understand the phenotype of different transcriptional subclasses and their contribution to the overall turnover of HIV-1 before and during cART. The average number of virus-producing cells in peripheral blood is small during chronic infection. We find that a substantial fraction of cells can become defectively infected. Assuming that the infection is homogenous throughout the body, we estimate an average in vivo viral burst size on the order of 104 virions per cell. Our study provides novel quantitative insights into the turnover and development of different subclasses of HIV-1-infected cells, and indicates that cells containing solely unspliced viral RNA are a good marker for viral latency. The model illustrates how the pool of latently infected cells becomes rapidly established during the first months of acute infection and continues to increase slowly during the first years of chronic infection. Having a detailed understanding of this process will be useful for the evaluation of viral eradication strategies that aim to deplete the latent reservoir of HIV-1.