Advanced Business Simulations-Incorporating business and process execution data

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and their predictions are widely used by the enterprises for informed decision making. Nevertheless , a very important factor, which is generally overlooked, is that the top level strategic KPIs are actually driven by the operational level business processes. These two domains are, however, mostly segregated and analysed in silos with different Business Intelligence solutions. In this paper, we are proposing an approach for advanced Business Simulations, which converges the two domains by utilising process execution & business data, and concepts from Business Dynamics (BD) and Business Ontologies, to promote better system understanding and detailed KPI predictions. Our approach incorporates the automated creation of Causal Loop Diagrams, thus empowering the analyst to critically examine the complex dependencies hidden in the massive amounts of available enterprise data. We have further evaluated our proposed approach in the context of a retail use-case that involved verification of the automatically generated causal models by a domain expert.

Predicting polarization signatures for double-detonation and delayed-detonation models of Type Ia supernovae

Calculations of synthetic spectropolarimetry are one means to test multidimensional explosion models for Type Ia supernovae. In a recent paper, we demonstrated that the violent merger of a 1.1 and 0.9 M⊙ white dwarf binary system is too asymmetric to explain the low polarization levels commonly observed in normal Type Ia supernovae. Here, we present polarization simulations for two alternative scenarios: the sub-Chandrasekhar mass double-detonation and the Chandrasekhar mass delayed-detonation model. Specifically, we study a 2D double-detonation model and a 3D delayed-detonation model, and calculate polarization spectra for multiple observer orientations in both cases. We find modest polarization levels (<1 per cent) for both explosion models. Polarization in the continuum peaks at ∼0.1–0.3 per cent and decreases after maximum light, in excellent agreement with spectropolarimetric data of normal Type Ia supernovae. Higher degrees of polarization are found across individual spectral lines. In particular, the synthetic Si II λ6355 profiles are polarized at levels that match remarkably well the values observed in normal Type Ia supernovae, while the low degrees of polarization predicted across the O I λ7774 region are consistent with the non-detection of this feature in current data. We conclude that our models can reproduce many of the characteristics of both flux and polarization spectra for well-studied Type Ia supernovae, such as SN 2001el and SN 2012fr. However, the two models considered here cannot account for the unusually high level of polarization observed in extreme cases such as SN 2004dt.

The Status of Multi-Dimensional Core-Collapse Supernova Models

Models of neutrino-driven core-collapse supernova explosions have matured considerably in recent years. Explosions of low-mass progenitors can routinely be simulated in 1D, 2D, and 3D. Nucleosynthesis calculations indicate that these supernovae could be contributors of some lighter neutron-rich elements beyond iron. The explosion mechanism of more massive stars remains under investigation, although first 3D models of neutrino-driven explosions employing multi-group neutrino transport have become available. Together with earlier 2D models and more simplified 3D simulations, these have elucidated the interplay between neutrino heating and hydrodynamic instabilities in the post-shock region that is essential for shock revival. However, some physical ingredients may still need to be added/improved before simulations can robustly explain supernova explosions over a wide range of progenitors. Solutions recently suggested in the literature include uncertainties in the neutrino rates, rotation, and seed perturbations from convective shell burning. We review the implications of 3D simulations of shell burning in supernova progenitors for the ‘perturbations-aided neutrino-driven mechanism,’ whose efficacy is illustrated by the first successful multi-group neutrino hydrodynamics simulation of an 18 solar mass progenitor with 3D initial conditions. We conclude with speculations about the impact of 3D effects on the structure of massive stars through convective boundary mixing.

New methods for movement technique development in cross-country skiing using mathematical models and simulation

This Licentiate Thesis is devoted to the presentation and discussion of some new contributions in applied mathematics directed towards scientific computing in sports engineering. It considers inverse problems of biomechanical simulations with rigid body musculoskeletal systems especially in cross-country skiing. This is a contrast to the main research on cross-country skiing biomechanics, which is based mainly on experimental testing alone. The thesis consists of an introduction and five papers. The introduction motivates the context of the papers and puts them into a more general framework. Two papers (D and E) consider studies of real questions in cross-country skiing, which are modelled and simulated. The results give some interesting indications, concerning these challenging questions, which can be used as a basis for further research. However, the measurements are not accurate enough to give the final answers. Paper C is a simulation study which is more extensive than paper D and E, and is compared to electromyography measurements in the literature. Validation in biomechanical simulations is difficult and reducing mathematical errors is one way of reaching closer to more realistic results. Paper A examines well-posedness for forward dynamics with full muscle dynamics. Moreover, paper B is a technical report which describes the problem formulation and mathematical models and simulation from paper A in more detail. Our new modelling together with the simulations enable new possibilities. This is similar to simulations of applications in other engineering fields, and need in the same way be handled with care in order to achieve reliable results. The results in this thesis indicate that it can be very useful to use mathematical modelling and numerical simulations when describing cross-country skiing biomechanics. Hence, this thesis contributes to the possibility of beginning to use and develop such modelling and simulation techniques also in this context.

Large Numerical Models in Continuous Hybrid Simulation

Hybrid simulation is a technique that combines experimental and numerical testing and has been used for the last decades in the fields of aerospace, civil and mechanical engineering. During this time, most of the research has focused on developing algorithms and the necessary technology, including but not limited to, error minimisation techniques, phase lag compensation and faster hydraulic cylinders. However, one of the main shortcomings in hybrid simulation that has pre- vented its widespread use is the size of the numerical models and the effect that higher frequencies may have on the stability and accuracy of the simulation. The first chapter in this document provides an overview of the hybrid simulation method and the different hybrid simulation schemes, and the corresponding time integration algorithms, that are more commonly used in this field. The scope of this thesis is presented in more detail in chapter 2: a substructure algorithm, the Substep Force Feedback (Subfeed), is adapted in order to fulfil the necessary requirements in terms of speed. The effects of more complex models on the Subfeed are also studied in detail, and the improvements made are validated experimentally. Chapters 3 and 4 detail the methodologies that have been used in order to accomplish the objectives mentioned in the previous lines, listing the different cases of study and detailing the hardware and software used to experimentally validate them. The third chapter contains a brief introduction to a project, the DFG Subshake, whose data have been used as a starting point for the developments that are shown later in this thesis. The results obtained are presented in chapters 5 and 6, with the first of them focusing on purely numerical simulations while the second of them is more oriented towards a more practical application including experimental real-time hybrid simulation tests with large numerical models. Following the discussion of the developments in this thesis is a list of hardware and software requirements that have to be met in order to apply the methods described in this document, and they can be found in chapter 7. The last chapter, chapter 8, of this thesis focuses on conclusions and achievements extracted from the results, namely: the adaptation of the hybrid simulation algorithm Subfeed to be used in conjunction with large numerical models, the study of the effect of high frequencies on the substructure algorithm and experimental real-time hybrid simulation tests with vibrating subsystems using large numerical models and shake tables. A brief discussion of possible future research activities can be found in the concluding chapter.

Transient simulations for present and last interglacials using a comprehensive coupled climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3.0), links to model result files in NetCDF format

Transient simulations are widely used in studying the past climate as they provide better comparison with any exisiting proxy data. However, multi-millennial transient simulations using coupled climate models are usually computationally very expensive. As a result several acceleration techniques are implemented when using numerical simulations to recreate past climate. In this study, we compare the results from transient simulations of the present and the last interglacial with and without acceleration of the orbital forcing, using the comprehensive coupled climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3). Our study shows that in low-latitude regions, the simulation of long-term variations in interglacial surface climate is not significantly affected by the use of the acceleration technique (with an acceleration factor of 10) and hence, large-scale model-data comparison of surface variables is not hampered. However, in high-latitude regions where the surface climate has a direct connection to the deep ocean, e.g. in the Southern Ocean or the Nordic Seas, acceleration-induced biases in sea-surface temperature evolution may occur with potential influence on the dynamics of the overlying atmosphere. The data provided here are from both accelerated and non-accelerated runs as decadal mean values.

A Video Analysis of Intra- and Inter-professional Leadership Behaviours Within “The Burns Suite”: Identifying Key Leadership Models

Objective Leadership is particularly important in complex highly interprofessional health care contexts involving a number of staff, some from the same specialty (intraprofessional), and others from different specialties (interprofessional). The authors recently published the concept of “The Burns Suite” (TBS) as a novel simulation tool to deliver interprofessional and teamwork training. It is unclear which leadership behaviors are the most important in an interprofessional burns resuscitation scenario, and whether they can be modeled on to current leadership theory. The purpose of this study was to perform a comprehensive video analysis of leadership behaviors within TBS. Methods A total of 3 burns resuscitation simulations within TBS were recorded. The video analysis was grounded-theory inspired. Using predefined criteria, actions/interactions deemed as leadership behaviors were identified. Using an inductive iterative process, 8 main leadership behaviors were identified. Cohen’s κ coefficient was used to measure inter-rater agreement and calculated as κ = 0.7 (substantial agreement). Each video was watched 4 times, focusing on 1 of the 4 team members per viewing (senior surgeon, senior nurse, trainee surgeon, and trainee nurse). The frequency and types of leadership behavior of each of the 4 team members were recorded. Statistical significance to assess any differences was assessed using analysis of variance, whereby a p < 0.05 was taken to be significant. Leadership behaviors were triangulated with verbal cues and actions from the videos. Results All 3 scenarios were successfully completed. The mean scenario length was 22 minutes. A total of 362 leadership behaviors were recorded from the 12 participants. The most evident leadership behaviors of all team members were adhering to guidelines (which effectively equates to following Advanced Trauma and Life Support/Emergency Management of Severe Burns resuscitation guidelines and hence “maintaining standards”), followed by making decisions. Although in terms of total frequency the senior surgeon engaged in more leadership behaviors compared with the entire team, statistically there was no significant difference between all 4 members within the 8 leadership categories. This analysis highlights that “distributed leadership” was predominant, whereby leadership was “distributed” or “shared” among team members. The leadership behaviors within TBS also seemed to fall in line with the “direction, alignment, and commitment” ontology. Conclusions Effective leadership is essential for successful functioning of work teams and accomplishment of task goals. As the resuscitation of a patient with major burns is a dynamic event, team leaders require flexibility in their leadership behaviors to effectively adapt to changing situations. Understanding leadership behaviors of different team members within an authentic simulation can identify important behaviors required to optimize nontechnical skills in a major resuscitation. Furthermore, attempting to map these behaviors on to leadership models can help further our understanding of leadership theory. Collectively this can aid the development of refined simulation scenarios for team members, and can be extrapolated into other areas of simulation-based team training and interprofessional education.

The Roles of Land and Orography on Precipitation and Ocean Circulation in Global Climate Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Optics-Based Quantum Information and Sensing Platforms Utilizing the Nitrogen-Vacancy Center in Diamond

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

PHYSICA: A multiphysics computational framework and its application to casting simulations

Metal casting is a process governed by the interaction of a range of physical phenomena. Most computational models of this process address only what are conventionally regarded as the primary phenomena – heat conduction and solidification. However, to predict other phenomena, such as porosity formation, requires modelling the interaction of the fluid flow, heat transfer, solidification and the development of stressdeformation in the solidified part of the casting. This paper will describe a modelling framework called PHYSICA[1] which has the capability to stimulate such multiphysical phenomena.

Enhancing the numerical performance of fire field models (CMS Paper)

This paper describes two new techniques designed to enhance the performance of fire field modelling software. The two techniques are "group solvers" and automated dynamic control of the solution process, both of which are currently under development within the SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics environment. The "group solver" is a derivation of common solver techniques used to obtain numerical solutions to the algebraic equations associated with fire field modelling. The purpose of "group solvers" is to reduce the computational overheads associated with traditional numerical solvers typically used in fire field modelling applications. In an example, discussed in this paper, the group solver is shown to provide a 37% saving in computational time compared with a traditional solver. The second technique is the automated dynamic control of the solution process, which is achieved through the use of artificial intelligence techniques. This is designed to improve the convergence capabilities of the software while further decreasing the computational overheads. The technique automatically controls solver relaxation using an integrated production rule engine with a blackboard to monitor and implement the required control changes during solution processing. Initial results for a two-dimensional fire simulation are presented that demonstrate the potential for considerable savings in simulation run-times when compared with control sets from various sources. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential for enhanced solution reliability due to obtaining acceptable convergence within each time step, unlike some of the comparison simulations.

A Lorentzian Signature Model for Quantum General Relativity

We give a relativistic spin network model for quantum gravity based on the Lorentz group and its q-deformation, the Quantum Lorentz Algebra. We propose a combinatorial model for the path integral given by an integral over suitable representations of this algebra. This generalises the state sum models for the case of the four-dimensional rotation group previously studied in gr-qc/9709028. As a technical tool, formulae for the evaluation of relativistic spin networks for the Lorentz group are developed, with some simple examples which show that the evaluation is finite in interesting cases. We conjecture that the `10J' symbol needed in our model has a finite value.

The Quantum Tetrahedron in 3 and 4 Dimensions

Recent work on state sum models of quantum gravity in 3 and 4 dimensions has led to interest in the `quantum tetrahedron'. Starting with a classical phase space whose points correspond to geometries of the tetrahedron in R^3, we use geometric quantization to obtain a Hilbert space of states. This Hilbert space has a basis of states labeled by the areas of the faces of the tetrahedron together with one more quantum number, e.g. the area of one of the parallelograms formed by midpoints of the tetrahedron's edges. Repeating the procedure for the tetrahedron in R^4, we obtain a Hilbert space with a basis labelled solely by the areas of the tetrahedron's faces. An analysis of this result yields a geometrical explanation of the otherwise puzzling fact that the quantum tetrahedron has more degrees of freedom in 3 dimensions than in 4 dimensions.

Self-Assembled InAs/GaAs Quantum Dot Solar Cells

Our work focuses on experimental and theoretical studies aimed at establishing a fundamental understanding of the principal electrical and optical processes governing the operation of quantum dot solar cells (QDSC) and their feasibility for the realization of intermediate band solar cell (IBSC). Uniform performance QD solar cells with high conversion efficiency have been fabricated using carefully calibrated process recipes as the basis of all reliable experimental characterization. The origin for the enhancement of the short circuit current density (Jsc) in QD solar cells was carefully investigated. External quantum efficiency (EQE) measurements were performed as a measure of the below bandgap distribution of transition states. In this work, we found that the incorporation of self-assembled quantum dots (QDs) interrupts the lattice periodicity and introduce a greatly broadened tailing density of states extending from the bandedge towards mid-gap. A below-bandgap density of states (DOS) model with an extended Urbach tail has been developed. In particular, the below-bandgap photocurrent generation has been attributed to transitions via confined energy states and background continuum tailing states. Photoluminescence measurement is used to measure the energy level of the lowest available state and the coupling effect between QD states and background tailing states because it results from a non-equilibrium process. A basic I-V measurement reveals a degradation of the open circuit voltage (Voc) of QD solar cells, which is related to a one sub-bandgap photon absorption process followed by a direct collection of the generated carriers by the external circuit. We have proposed a modified Shockley-Queisser (SQ) model that predicts the degradation of Voc compared with a reference bulk device. Whenever an energy state within the forbidden gap can facilitate additional absorption, it can facilitate recombination as well. If the recombination is non-radiative, it is detrimental to solar cell performance. We have also investigated the QD trapping effects as deep level energy states. Without an efficient carrier extraction pathway, the QDs can indeed function as mobile carriers traps. Since hole energy levels are mostly connected with hole collection under room temperature, the trapping effect is more severe for electrons. We have tried to electron-dope the QDs to exert a repulsive Coulomb force to help improve the carrier collection efficiency. We have experimentally observed a 30% improvement of Jsc for 4e/dot devices compared with 0e/dot devices. Electron-doping helps with better carrier collection efficiency, however, we have also measured a smaller transition probability from valance band to QD states as a direct manifestation of the Pauli Exclusion Principle. The non-linear performance is of particular interest. With the availability of laser with on-resonance and off-resonance excitation energy, we have explored the photocurrent enhancement by a sequential two-photon absorption (2PA) process via the intermediate states. For the first time, we are able to distinguish the nonlinearity effect by 1PA and 2PA process. The observed 2PA current under off-resonant and on-resonant excitation comes from a two-step transition via the tailing states instead of the QD states. However, given the existence of an extended Urbach tail and the small number of photons available for the intermediate states to conduction band transition, the experimental results suggest that with the current material system, the intensity requirement for an observable enhancement of photocurrent via a 2PA process is much higher than what is available from concentrated sun light. In order to realize the IBSC model, a matching transition strength needs to be achieved between valance band to QD states and QD states to conduction band. However, we have experimentally shown that only a negligible amount of signal can be observed at cryogenic temperature via the transition from QD states to conduction band under a broadband IR source excitation. Based on the understanding we have achieved, we found that the existence of the extended tailing density of states together with the large mismatch of the transition strength from VB to QD and from QD to CB, has systematically put into question the feasibility of the IBSC model with QDs.