Linking the witness simulation software to an expert system to represent a decision-making process

Expert systems, and artificial intelligence more generally, can provide a useful means for representing decision-making processes. By linking expert systems software to simulation software an effective means of including these decision-making processes in a simulation model can be achieved. This paper demonstrates how a commercial-off-the-shelf simulation package (Witness) can be linked to an expert systems package (XpertRule) through a Visual Basic interface. The methodology adopted could be used for models, and possibly software, other than those presented here.

Integration of the Manakov-PMD Equation with Precomputed M(w) Matrices for PMD Simulation

A novel direct integration technique of the Manakov-PMD equation for the simulation of polarisation mode dispersion (PMD) in optical communication systems is demonstrated and shown to be numerically as efficient as the commonly used coarse-step method. The main advantage of using a direct integration of the Manakov-PMD equation over the coarse-step method is a higher accuracy of the PMD model. The new algorithm uses precomputed M(w) matrices to increase the computational speed compared to a full integration without loss of accuracy. The simulation results for the probability distribution function (PDF) of the differential group delay (DGD) and the autocorrelation function (ACF) of the polarisation dispersion vector for varying numbers of precomputed M(w) matrices are compared to analytical models and results from the coarse-step method. It is shown that the coarse-step method achieves a significantly inferior reproduction of the statistical properties of PMD in optical fibres compared to a direct integration of the Manakov-PMD equation.

Computer simulation of radio-frequency methane/hydrogen plasmas and their interaction with GaAs Surfaces

The following thesis describes the computer modelling of radio frequency capacitively coupled methane/hydrogen plasmas and the consequences for the reactive ion etching of (100) GaAs surfaces. In addition a range of etching experiments was undertaken over a matrix of pressure, power and methane concentration. The resulting surfaces were investigated using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and the results were discussed in terms of physical and chemical models of particle/surface interactions in addition to the predictions for energies, angles and relative fluxes to the substrate of the various plasma species. The model consisted of a Monte Carlo code which followed electrons and ions through the plasma and sheath potentials whilst taking account of collisions with background neutral gas molecules. The ionisation profile output from the electron module was used as input for the ionic module. Momentum scattering interactions of ions with gas molecules were investigated via different models and compared against results given by quantum mechanical code. The interactions were treated as central potential scattering events and the resulting neutral cascades were followed. The resulting predictions for ion energies at the cathode compared well to experimental ion energy distributions and this verified the particular form of the electrical potentials used and their applicability in the particular geometry plasma cell used in the etching experiments. The final code was used to investigate the effect of external plasma parameters on the mass distribution, energy and angles of all species impingent on the electrodes. Comparisons of electron energies in the plasma also agreed favourably with measurements made using a Langmuir electric probe. The surface analysis showed the surfaces all to be depleted in arsenic due to its preferential removal and the resultant Ga:As ratio in the surface was found to be directly linked to the etch rate. The etch rate was determined by the methane flux which was predicted by the code.

Simulation of optical fibre communication systems influenced by stimulated brillouin scattering

Boyd's SBS model which includes distributed thermal acoustic noise (DTAN) has been enhanced to enable the Stokes-spontaneous density depletion noise (SSDDN) component of the transmitted optical field to be simulated, probably for the first time, as well as the full transmitted field. SSDDN would not be generated from previous SBS models in which a Stokes seed replaces DTAN. SSDDN becomes the dominant form of transmitted SBS noise as model fibre length (MFL) is increased but its optical power spectrum remains independent of MFL. Simulations of the full transmitted field and SSDDN for different MFLs allow prediction of the optical power spectrum, or system performance parameters which depend on this, for typical communication link lengths which are too long for direct simulation. The SBS model has also been innovatively improved by allowing the Brillouin Shift Frequency (BS) to vary over the model fibre length, for the nonuniform fibre model (NFM) mode, or to remain constant, for the uniform fibre model (UFM) mode. The assumption of a Gaussian probability density function (pdf) for the BSF in the NFM has been confirmed by means of an analysis of reported Brillouin amplified power spectral measurements for the simple case of a nominally step-index single-mode pure silica core fibre. The BSF pdf could be modified to match the Brillouin gain spectra of other fibre types if required. For both models, simulated backscattered and output powers as functions of input power agree well with those from a reported experiment for fitting Brillouin gain coefficients close to theoretical. The NFM and UFM Brillouin gain spectra are then very similar from half to full maximum but diverge at lower values. Consequently, NFM and UFM transmitted SBS noise powers inferred for long MFLs differ by 1-2 dB over the input power range of 0.15 dBm. This difference could be significant for AM-VSB CATV links at some channel frequencies. The modelled characteristic of Carrier-to-Noise Ratio (CNR) as a function of input power for a single intensity modulated subcarrier is in good agreement with the characteristic reported for an experiment when either the UFM or NFM is used. The difference between the two modelled characteristics would have been more noticeable for a higher fibre length or a lower subcarrier frequency.

Experimental investigation and CFD simulation of insulation debris transport phenomena in water flow

The investigation of insulation debris generation, transport and sedimentation becomes important with regard to reactor safety research for PWR and BWR, when considering the long-term behavior of emergency core cooling systems during all types of loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). The insulation debris released near the break during a LOCA incident consists of a mixture of disparate particle population that varies with size, shape, consistency and other properties. Some fractions of the released insulation debris can be transported into the reactor sump, where it may perturb/impinge on the emergency core cooling systems. Open questions of generic interest are the sedimentation of the insulation debris in a water pool, its possible re-suspension and transport in the sump water flow and the particle load on strainers and corresponding pressure drop. A joint research project on such questions is being performed in cooperation between the University of Applied Sciences Zittau/Görlitz and the Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf. The project deals with the experimental investigation of particle transport phenomena in coolant flow and the development of CFD models for its description. While the experiments are performed at the University at Zittau/Görlitz, the theoretical modeling efforts are concentrated at Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf. In the presentation the basic concepts for CFD modeling are described and feasibility studies including the conceptual design of the experiments are presented.

Experimental investigation and CFD simulation of the behaviour of mineral wool in the reactor sump

The investigation of insulation debris generation, transport and sedimentation becomes important with regard to reactor safety research for PWR and BWR, when considering the long-term behavior of emergency core cooling systems during all types of loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). The insulation debris released near the break during a LOCA incident consists of a mixture of disparate particle population that varies with size, shape, consistency and other properties. Some fractions of the released insulation debris can be transported into the reactor sump, where it may perturb/impinge on the emergency core cooling systems. Open questions of generic interest are the sedimentation of the insulation debris in a water pool, its possible re-suspension and transport in the sump water flow and the particle load on strainers and corresponding pressure drop. A joint research project on such questions is being performed in cooperation between the University of Applied Sciences Zittau/Gorlitz and the Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf. The project deals with the experimental investigation of particle transport phenomena in coolant flow and the development of CFD models for its description. While the experiments are performed at the University at Zittau/Gorlitz, the theoretical modeling efforts are concentrated at Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf. In the current paper the basic concepts for CFD modeling are described and feasibility studies including the conceptual design of the experiments are presented. Copyright © 2008 by ASME.

Computer simulation of liquid flow patterns on distillation trays

This thesis describes work carried out to improve the fundamental modelling of liquid flows on distillation trays. A mathematical model is presented based on the principles of computerised fluid dynamics. It models the liquid flow in the horizontal directions allowing for the effects of the vapour through the use of an increased liquid turbulence, modelled by an eddy viscosity, and a resistance to liquid flow caused by the vapour being accelerated horizontally by the liquid. The resultant equations are similar to the Navier-Stokes equations with the addition of a resistance term.A mass-transfer model is used to calculate liquid concentration profiles and tray efficiencies. A heat and mass transfer analogy is used to compare theoretical concentration profiles to experimental water-cooling data obtained from a 2.44 metre diameter air-water distillation simulation rig. The ratios of air to water flow rates are varied in order to simulate three pressures: vacuum, atmospheric pressure and moderate pressure.For simulated atmospheric and moderate pressure distillation, the fluid mechanical model constantly over-predicts tray efficiencies with an accuracy of between +1.7% and +11.3%. This compares to -1.8% to -10.9% for the stagnant regions model (Porter et al. 1972) and +12.8% to +34.7% for the plug flow plus back-mixing model (Gerster et al. 1958). The model fails to predict the flow patterns and tray efficiencies for vacuum simulation due to the change in the mechanism of liquid transport, from a liquid continuous layer to a spray as the liquid flow-rate is reduced. This spray is not taken into account in the development of the fluid mechanical model. A sensitivity analysis carried out has shown that the fluid mechanical model is relatively insensitive to the prediction of the average height of clear liquid, and a reduction in the resistance term results in a slight loss of tray efficiency. But these effects are not great. The model is quite sensitive to the prediction of the eddy viscosity term. Variations can produce up to a 15% decrease in tray efficiency. The fluid mechanical model has been incorporated into a column model so that statistical optimisation techniques can be employed to fit a theoretical column concentration profile to experimental data. Through the use of this work mass-transfer data can be obtained.

Dynamic simulation of chemical processes

This thesis describes the design and implementation of an interactive dynamic simulator called DASPRII. The starting point of this research has been an existing dynamic simulation package, DASP. DASPII is written in standard FORTRAN 77 and is implemented on universally available IBM-PC or compatible machines. It provides a means for the analysis and design of chemical processes. Industrial interest in dynamic simulation has increased due to the recent increase in concern over plant operability, resiliency and safety. DASPII is an equation oriented simulation package which allows solution of dynamic and steady state equations. The steady state can be used to initialise the dynamic simulation. A robust non linear algebraic equation solver has been implemented for steady state solution. This has increased the general robustness of DASPII, compared to DASP. A graphical front end is used to generate the process flowsheet topology from a user constructed diagram of the process. A conversational interface is used to interrogate the user with the aid of a database, to complete the topological information. An original modelling strategy implemented in DASPII provides a simple mechanism for parameter switching which creates a more flexible simulation environment. The problem description generated is by a further conversational procedure using a data-base. The model format used allows the same model equations to be used for dynamic and steady state solution. All the useful features of DASPI are retained in DASPII. The program has been demonstrated and verified using a number of example problems, Significant improvements using the new NLAE solver have been shown. Topics requiring further research are described. The benefits of variable switching in models has been demonstrated with a literature problem.

Technical and economic simulation of biomass pyrolysis processes for fuels and electricity

There is considerable concern over the increased effect of fossil fuel usage on the environment and this concern has resulted in an effort to find alternative, environmentally friendly energy sources. Biomass is an available alternative resource which may be converted by flash pyrolysis to produce a crude liquid product that can be used directly to substitute for conventional fossil fuels or upgraded to a higher quality fuel. Both the crude and upgraded products may be utilised for power generation. A computer program, BLUNT, has been developed to model the flash pyrolysis of biomass with subsequent upgrading, refining or power production. The program assesses and compares the economic and technical opportunities for biomass thermochemical conversion on the same basis. BLUNT works by building up a selected processing route from a number of process steps through which the material passes sequentially. Each process step has a step model that calculates the mass and energy balances, the utilities usage and the capital cost for that step of the process. The results of the step models are combined to determine the performance of the whole conversion route. Sample results from the modelling are presented in this thesis. Due to the large number of possible combinations of feeds, conversion processes, products and sensitivity analyses a complete set of results is impractical to present in a single publication. Variation of the production costs for the available products have been illustrated based on the cost of a wood feedstock. The effect of selected macroeconomic factors on the production costs of bio-diesel and gasoline are also given.

Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

Spray drier simulation and air flow pattern studies

The literature pertaining to the key stages of spray drying has been reviewed in the context of the mathematical modelling of drier performance. A critical review is also presented of previous spray drying models. A new mathematical model has been developed for prediction of spray drier performance. This is applicable to slurries of rigid, porous crust-forming materials to predict trajectories and drying profiles for droplets with a distribution of sizes sprayed from a centrifugal pressure nozzle. The model has been validated by comparing model predictions to experimental data from a pilot-scale counter-current drier and from a full-scale co-current drier. For the latter, the computed product moisture content was within 2%, and the computed air exit temperature within 10oC of experimental data. Air flow patterns have been investigated in a 1.2m diameter transparent countercurrent spray tower by flow visualisation. Smoke was introduced into various zones within the tower to trace the direction, and gauge the intensity, of the air flow. By means of a set of variable-angle air inlet nozzles, a variety of air entry configurations was investigated. The existence of a core of high rotational and axial velocity channelling up the axis of the tower was confirmed. The stability of flow within the core was found to be strongly dependent upon the air entry arrangement. A probe was developed for the measurement of air temperature and humidity profiles. This was employed for studying evaporation of pure water drops in a 1.2m diameter pilot-scale counter-current drier. A rapid approach to the exit air properties was detected within a 1m distance from the air entry ports. Measured radial profiles were found to be virtually flat but, from the axial profiles, the existence of plug-flow, well-mixed-flow and some degree of air short-circuiting can be inferred. The model and conclusions should assist in the improved design and optimum operation of industrial spray driers.

Cost models for engineering services

This thesis describes the procedure and results from four years research undertaken through the IHD (Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees) Scheme at Aston University in Birmingham, sponsored by the SERC (Science and Engineering Research Council) and Monk Dunstone Associates, Chartered Quantity Surveyors. A stochastic networking technique VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique) was used to model the pre-tender costs of public health, heating ventilating, air-conditioning, fire protection, lifts and electrical installations within office developments. The model enabled the quantity surveyor to analyse, manipulate and explore complex scenarios which previously had defied ready mathematical analysis. The process involved the examination of historical material costs, labour factors and design performance data. Components and installation types were defined and formatted. Data was updated and adjusted using mechanical and electrical pre-tender cost indices and location, selection of contractor, contract sum, height and site condition factors. Ranges of cost, time and performance data were represented by probability density functions and defined by constant, uniform, normal and beta distributions. These variables and a network of the interrelationships between services components provided the framework for analysis. The VERT program, in this particular study, relied upon Monte Carlo simulation to model the uncertainties associated with pre-tender estimates of all possible installations. The computer generated output in the form of relative and cumulative frequency distributions of current element and total services costs, critical path analyses and details of statistical parameters. From this data alternative design solutions were compared, the degree of risk associated with estimates was determined, heuristics were tested and redeveloped, and cost significant items were isolated for closer examination. The resultant models successfully combined cost, time and performance factors and provided the quantity surveyor with an appreciation of the cost ranges associated with the various engineering services design options.

GIS linked environmental process models

In recent years there has been a great effort to combine the technologies and techniques of GIS and process models. This project examines the issues of linking a standard current generation 2½d GIS with several existing model codes. The focus for the project has been the Shropshire Groundwater Scheme, which is being developed to augment flow in the River Severn during drought periods by pumping water from the Shropshire Aquifer. Previous authors have demonstrated that under certain circumstances pumping could reduce the soil moisture available for crops. This project follows earlier work at Aston in which the effects of drawdown were delineated and quantified through the development of a software package that implemented a technique which brought together the significant spatially varying parameters. This technique is repeated here, but using a standard GIS called GRASS. The GIS proved adequate for the task and the added functionality provided by the general purpose GIS - the data capture, manipulation and visualisation facilities - were of great benefit. The bulk of the project is concerned with examining the issues of the linkage of GIS and environmental process models. To this end a groundwater model (Modflow) and a soil moisture model (SWMS2D) were linked to the GIS and a crop model was implemented within the GIS. A loose-linked approach was adopted and secondary and surrogate data were used wherever possible. The implications of which relate to; justification of a loose-linked versus a closely integrated approach; how, technically, to achieve the linkage; how to reconcile the different data models used by the GIS and the process models; control of the movement of data between models of environmental subsystems, to model the total system; the advantages and disadvantages of using a current generation GIS as a medium for linking environmental process models; generation of input data, including the use of geostatistic, stochastic simulation, remote sensing, regression equations and mapped data; issues of accuracy, uncertainty and simply providing adequate data for the complex models; how such a modelling system fits into an organisational framework.

Humans:the missing link in manufacturing simulation?

Computer based discrete event simulation (DES) is one of the most commonly used aids for the design of automotive manufacturing systems. However, DES tools represent machines in extensive detail, while only representing workers as simple resources. This presents a problem when modelling systems with a highly manual work content, such as an assembly line. This paper describes research at Cranfield University, in collaboration with the Ford Motor Company, founded on the assumption that human variation is the cause of a large percentage of the disparity between simulation predictions and real world performance. The research aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of simulation prediction by including models of human factors.