A Fractional Perspective to the Bond Graph Modelling of World Economies

Inspired in dynamic systems theory and Brewer’s contributions to apply it to economics, this paper establishes a bond graph model. Two main variables, a set of inter-connectivities based on nodes and links (bonds) and a fractional order dynamical perspective, prove to be a good macro-economic representation of countries’ potential performance in nowadays globalization. The estimations based on time series for 50 countries throughout the last 50 decades confirm the accuracy of the model and the importance of scale for economic performance.

“The past is a foreign country”? Acculturation theory and the anthropology of globalization

Etnográfica, 15 (2): 313-336

Geomorphic dam-break flows. Part I: conceptual model

Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management 163 Issue WM6

Coalition of distributed generation units to Virtual Power Players - a game theory approach

Smart Grids (SGs) have emerged as the new paradigm for power system operation and management, being designed to include large amounts of distributed energy resources. This new paradigm requires new Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodologies considering different operation strategies and the existence of new management players such as several types of aggregators. This paper proposes a methodology to facilitate the coalition between distributed generation units originating Virtual Power Players (VPP) considering a game theory approach. The proposed approach consists in the analysis of the classifications that were attributed by each VPP to the distributed generation units, as well as in the analysis of the previous established contracts by each player. The proposed classification model is based in fourteen parameters including technical, economical and behavioural ones. Depending of the VPP strategies, size and goals, each parameter has different importance. VPP can also manage other type of energy resources, like storage units, electric vehicles, demand response programs or even parts of the MV and LV distribution network. A case study with twelve VPPs with different characteristics and one hundred and fifty real distributed generation units is included in the paper.

Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

Fiscal decentralisation and economic theory

There is no complete overview or discussion of the literature of the economics of federalism and fiscal decentralization, even though scholarly interest in the topic has been increasing significantly over recent years. This paper provides a general, brief but comprehensive overview of the main insights from the literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization. In doing so, literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization is grouped into two main approaches: “first generation of theories” and “second generation of theories”.

Avaliação da Morbilidade e Mortalidade no Serviço de Ginecologia da Maternidade Dr. Alfredo da Costa. Jan/Set 1991

Foram avaliados todos os internamentos no Serviço de Ginecologia da MAC de 2 de Janeiro a 19 de Setembro de 1991. O critério de selecção baseou-se no registo de morbilidade intra-operatória e no prolongamento de tempo de internamento. Foram estudados os dados relativos à idade, factores de risco associados, risco anestésico, tipo de intervenção cirúrgica, tempo operatório, tipo de complicações e média de tempo de internamento. Verificou-se uma morbilidade global de 5,6%, tendo-se constatado uma maior incidência de complicações no grupo das histerectomias abdominais (16,8%). Nos casos com morbilidade 72% apresentavam um ou mais factores de risco associados. Ocorreram 5 lesões de órgão (0,73%), 33 complicações pós-operatórias (4,8%) e 7 reintervenções (1%). A média de internamento neste grupo de doentes foi de 11 dias.

Modelling resilience in supply chain

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Industrial

Understanding the internet banking adoption by Portuguese customers - a unified theory of acceptance and use of technology and perceived risk application.

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

EDP InovCity pilot study proposal: A set-top box interface

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Web-assisted tobacco intervention in Portuguese : intentions to make behavioural changes and behavioural changes

ABSTRACT - The problem of how to support “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) and “behaviour changes” (BC) in smoking cessation when there is a scarcity of resources is a pressing issue in public health terms. The present research focuses on the use of information and communications technologies and their role in smoking cessation. It is developed in Portugal after the ratification of WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (on 8 November 2005). The prevalence of smokers over fifteen years of age within the population stood at 20.9% (30.9% for men and 11.8% for women). While the strategy of helping people to quit smoking has been emphasised at National Health Service (NHS) level, the uptake of cessation assistance has exceeded the capacity of the service. This induced the search of new theoretical and practical venues to offer alternative options to people willing to stop smoking. Among these, the National Health Plan (NHP) of Portugal (2004-2010), identifies the use of information technologies in smoking cessation. eHealth and the importance of health literacy as a means of empowering people to make behavioural changes is recurrently considered an option worth investigating. The overall objective of this research is to understand, in the Portuguese context, the use of the Internet to help people to stop smoking. Research questions consider factors that may contribute to “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) and “behavioural changes” (BC) while using a Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP). Also consideration is given to the trade-off on the use of the Web as a tool for smoking cessation: can it reach a vast number of people for a small cost (efficiency) demonstrating to work in the domain of smoking cessation (efficacy)”? In addition to the introduction, there is a second chapter in which the use of tobacco is discussed as a public health menace. The health gains achieved by stopping smoking and the means of quitting are also examined, as is the use of the Internet in smoking cessation. Then, several research issues are introduced. These include background theory and the theoretical framework for the Sense of Coherence. The research model is also discussed. A presentation of the methods, materials and of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) follows. In chapter four the results of the use of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) are presented. This study is divided into two sections. The first describes results related to quality control in relation to the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) and gives an overview of its users. Of these, 3,150 answered initial eligibility questions. In the end, 1,463 met all eligibility requirements, completed intake, decided on a day to quit smoking (Dday) and declared their “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) while a second targeted group of 650 did not decide on a Dday. With two quit attempts made before joining the platform, most of the participants had experienced past failures while wanting to stop. The smoking rate averaged 21 cigarettes per day. With a mean age of 35, of the participants 55% were males. Among several other considerations, gender and the Sense of Coherence (SOC) influenced the success of participants in their IBC and endeavour to set quit dates. The results of comparing males and females showed that, for current smokers, establishing a Dday was related to gender differences, not favouring males (OR=0.76, p<0.005). Belonging to higher Socio-economic strata (SES) was associated with the intention to consider IBC (when compared to lower SES condition) (OR=1.57, p<0.001) and higher number of school years (OR=0.70, p<0.005) favoured the decision to smoking cessation. Those who demonstrated higher confidence in their likelihood of success in stopping in the shortest time had a higher rate of setting a Dday (OR=0.51, p<0.001). There were differences between groups in IBC reflecting the high and low levels of the SOC score (OR=1.43, p=0.006), as those who considered setting a Dday had higher levels of SOC. After adjusting for all variables, stages of readiness to change and SOC were kept in the model. This is the first Arm of this research where the focus is a discussion of the system’s implications for the participants’ “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC). Moreover, a second section of this study (second Arm) offers input collected from 77 in-depth interviews with the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) users. Here, “Behaviour Change” (BC) and the usability of the platform are explored a year after IBC was declared. A percentage of 32.9% of self-reported, 12-month quitters in continuous abstinence from smoking from Dday to the 12-month follow- up point of the use of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) has been assessed. Comparing the Sense of Coherence (SOC) scores of participants by their respective means, according to the two groups, there was a significant difference in these scores of non smokers (BC) (M=144,66, SD=22,52) and Sense of Coherence (SOC) of smokers (noBC) (M=131,51, SD=21,43) p=0.014. This WATIP strategy and its contents benefit from the strengthening of the smoker’s sense of coherence (SOC), so that the person’s progress towards a life without tobacco may be experienced as comprehensible, manageable and meaningful. In this sample the sense of coherence (SOC) effect is moderate although it is associated with the day to quit smoking (Dday). Some of the limitations of this research have to do with self-selection bias, sample size (power) and self-reporting (no biochemical validation). The enrolment of participants was therefore not representative of the smoking population. It is not possible to verify the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) evaluation of external validity; consequently, the results obtained cannot be applied generalized. No participation bias is provided. Another limitation of this study is the associated limitations of interviews. Interviewees’ perception that fabricating answers could benefit them more than telling the simple truth in response to questions is a risk that is not evaluated (with no external validation like measuring participants’ carbon monoxide levels). What emerges in this analysis is the relevance of the process that leads to the establishment of the quit day (Dday) to stop using tobacco. In addition, technological issues, when tailoring is the focus, are key elements for scrutiny. The high number of dropouts of users of the web platform mandates future research that should concentrate on the matters of the user-centred design of portals. The focus on gains in health through patient-centred care needs more research, so that technology usability be considered within the context of best practices in smoking cessation.

Men’s purchase intention of shampoo: a model based on the theory of planned behavior and self-concept

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A technology diffusion perspective of Enterprise Resource Planning across European Small and Medium Enterprises: from determinants to Use to Value

Tese apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Gestão de Informação

Enhancing physical activity coaching through personalized motivational strategies and self-adaptive goal-setting: development of self-adaptive processes in a monitoring and coaching smartphone application

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Humoral response towards high density lipoprotein : a new mechanism for atherogenesis

RESUMO:Aterosclerose é uma das principais causas de morbilidade e mortalidade no mundo ocidental. É responsável, direta ou indiretamente, pela maior percentagem de gastos com a saúde na maioria dos países europeus. A “teoria lipídica” da aterosclerose, que se baseia na dislipidemia como causa primária para a doença vascular tem algumas implicações práticas importantes: permite a definição de linhas de orientação e protocolos simples e ainda estabelece alvos terapêuticos que podem ser atingidos na maior parte dos casos com a atual intervenção farmacológica. A associação da aterosclerose com o sistema imunológico (a “teoria imunológica”), forneceu por sua vez novas formas de explorar os mecanismos envolvidos e abriu novas perspetivas para um conhecimento mais completo da doença. No entanto, levanta dificuldades evidentes no que diz respeito às possibilidades terapêuticas. De todos os intervenientes no processo aterosclerótico (bioquímicos, imunológicos e anatómicos), as lipoproteínas de elevada densidade (HDL) são atualmente reconhecidas como um dos fatores mais importantes na aterogénese. Isto é baseado no reconhecimento das múltiplas propriedades anti-aterogénicas das HDL como por exemplo: a anti-oxidante, a anti-inflamatória e a antitrombótica, bem como o seu importante papel na melhoraria da função endotelial. Atualmente, é consensual que as funções anti-aterogénicas das HDL vão além do seu papel no transporte reverso do colesterol (RCT) e a importância das HDL no processo aterosclerótico baseia-se não apenas no seu papel protetor impedindo a formação da placa de ateroma, mas também na estabilização destas, prevenindo a sua ruptura e, consequentemente o evento trombótico. Como fundamentais no processo aterosclerótico estão reconhecidos dois principais conjuntos de eventos: um caracterizado por alterações no metabolismo das lipoproteínas que resultam em lipoproteínas pró-inflamatórias e pró-oxidantes que interagem com os componentes celulares da parede arterial e que conduzem à formação da placa de ateroma; o outro evento é a resposta imunológica desencadeada contra um novo conjunto de antigénios que por sua vez leva à produção de citoquinas pró-inflamatórias. Dada a complexidade da HDL e das suas múltiplas funções estas lipoproteínas tornaram-se um potencial alvo para a resposta auto-imune, e cujas consequências podem explicar algumas das associações identificados em estudos clínicos e epidemiológicos. Contudo esta interação entre o sistema imunológico e HDL nunca foi exaustivamente estudada. Portanto, pomos a hipótese de que em condições oxidativas e pró-inflamatórias, um aumento do antigénio (HDL) conduz a um consequente acréscimo na produção de anticorpos anti-HDL (aHDL) responsáveis pela alteração quantitativa e / ou qualitativa das HDL. O conceito de que estes anticorpos podem contribuir tanto para a evolução a longo prazo do processo aterosclerótico, como para o desencadeamento de eventos clínicos pode também explicar a heterogeneidade encontrada em cada doente e nos grandes estudos clínicos, no que diz respeito aos fatores de risco e outcomes clínicos. Para além disso, a confirmação desta hipótese pode permitir explicar porque é que as intervenções terapêuticas atualmente em desenvolvimento para aumentar os níveis de HDL, não conseguem mostrar a tão esperada redução do risco vascular. O objetivo geral desta tese foi identificar e caracterizar a resposta humoral contra os componentes da HDL, e avaliar possíveis mecanismos que possam contribuir para a modificação das propriedades anti-aterogénicas das HDL. Para alcançar este objetivo investigou-se: 1) A presença de anticorpos aHDL em doentes com lúpus eritematoso sistémico (SLE) e em doentes com manifestações clínicas de aterosclerose, como os doentes com doença arterial coronária (CAD), acidente vascular cerebral isquémico (IS) e diabetes tipo 2; 2) Os principais alvos antigénicos dentro do complexo das HDL e a associação entre os títulos de anticorpos aHDL e diferentes características clínicas destas doenças; 3) As modificações das funções normais associadas às HDL, em particular da função anti-oxidante e anti-inflamatória; 4) A atividade biológica dos anticorpos aHDL isolados do soro de doentes através de um conjunto de experiências in vitro de inibição da atividade da paraoxonase 1 (PON1) e da expressão de moléculas de adesão em culturas de células endoteliais. Para tal foi necessário estabelecer um método de isolamento dos anticorpos. Os anticorpos aHDL isolados do soro de doentes foram utilizados de forma a identificar as potenciais alterações dos sistemas celulares utilizados; 5) O efeito de fármacos usados no tratamento das dislipidemias, em particular o ácido nicotínico e as estatinas, na variação dos títulos de anticorpos aHDL através de ensaios clínicos randomizados, controlados com placebo e em dupla ocultação. Os métodos utilizados neste trabalho incluíram: técnicas imunológicas (como por exemplo, enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay - ELISA, ensaio imunoturbidimetrico e cromatografia de imuno-afinidade) técnicas bioquímicas (tais como a quantificação de atividade enzimática por espectrofotometria e por luminescência), experiências com cultura de células e citometria de fluxo. Os nossos resultados mostram que: 1) A presença de anticorpos aHDL, e mais especificamente anticorpos contra alguns do seus principais componentes como a apolipoproteína A-I (ApoA-I, principal apolipoproteína presente nas HDL) e a PON1 (o enzima que mais contribui para a propriedade anti-oxidante das HDL), quer em doentes com doenças auto-imunes, como o SLE, quer em doentes com manifestações clínicas de aterosclerose, como CAD, IS e diabetes tipo 2. Os doentes apresentaram títulos de anticorpos IgG aHDL, aApoA-I e aPON1 significativamente mais elevados do que controlos saudáveis com a mesma idade e sexo. 2) A correlação positiva estatisticamente significativa entre os títulos de aHDL e aApoA-I e aPON1 sugere que estes sejam dois dos principais alvos antigénicos dentro do complexo das HDL. Os anticorpos encontrados nestes doentes estão associados com a diminuição da atividade da PON1 e a uma redução da capacidade anti-oxidante total (TAC) do soro, um aumento dos biomarcadores de disfunção endotelial (como por exemplo dos metabolitos do óxido nítrico - NO2- e NO3-, as moléculas de adesão vascular e intracelular - VCAM-1 e ICAM-1 e os níveis de 3-nitrotirosina). Nos doentes com SLE os títulos destes estão associados a um aumento do dano cardiovascular e à atividade global da doença avaliados pelas escalas SLICC/ACR DI e BILAG score, respetivamente. Enquanto que nos doentes com diabetes tipo 2 estes anticorpos estão associados com um aumento dos níveis de glicemia em jejum (FGP) e hemoglobina glicada (HbA1c). 3) Após se ter estabelecido um método de isolamento dos anticorpos que permite isolar quantidades significativas de anticorpos do soro de doentes sem perder a sua especificidade, foi identificada a capacidade dos anticorpos isolados do soro de doentes inibirem de uma forma dependente da concentração a atividade da PON1 até um máximo de 70% no caso dos doentes com SLE e ente 7-52% no caso dos anticorpos isolados de doentes com CAD e IS. 4) O efeito anti-inflamatório das HDL na inibição da produção de VCAM-1 induzida por citoquinas (como o TNF-) foi revertido em mais de 80% pelos anticorpos aHDL isolados do soro de doentes. 5) A angiogenesis induzida por HDL através do aumento do fator de crescimento do endotélio vascular (VEGF) foi anulada em 65% pelos anticorpos aHDL isolados do soro de doentes. 6) Os atuais agentes farmacológicos disponíveis para aumentar as concentrações de HDL-C estão associados a um aumento dos títulos de anticorpos.-------- ABSTRACTAtherosclerosis is the major cause of morbidity and mortality in the western world. It is also responsible, directly or indirectly, for the highest percentage of health costs in most European countries. Despite the use of new technologies for the diagnosis of vascular disease and regardless of the major advances in treatment, the atherosclerosis-related clinical burden is still raising. The “lipid theory��� of atherogenesis, which identifies dyslipidemia as the primary cause of this vascular disease has some important practical implications: it allows the definition of simple guidelines and establishes therapeutic targets which can be generally met with current pharmacologic intervention. The association between atherosclerosis an the immune system (the immune concept) has in turn provided new ways of exploring the mechanisms involved in this condition and has opened new perspectives in the understanding of the disease. However, it raises obvious difficulties when it comes to treatment options. Of all the players (biochemical, immunological and anatomical) involved in this matter, high-density lipoproteins (HDL) are currently recognised as one of the most important factors in atherogenesis. This is based on the recognition of HDL's multiple anti-atherogenic properties: anti-oxidant, anti-inflammatory and antithrombotic, as well as its capacity to improve endothelial function. Nowadays, it is widely recognized that the anti-atherogenic functions of HDL go beyond reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), and the importance of HDL is based not just on its ability to reduce atheroma formation but also on its ability to stabilise plaques, therefore preventing their rupture and ultimately thrombosis. Two main set of events have been recognised as fundamental in atherogenesis: one, characterized by lipoprotein metabolism alterations, resulting in pro-inflammatory and pro-oxidative lipoproteins, which interact with the normal cellular elements of the arterial wall leading to atheroma formation; the other, the immune cellular response towards new sets of antigens which lead to the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines. Given to HDL complexity and multiple functions this lipoprotein has became a potential target for an auto-immune response, the consequences of which may explain some of the association identified in epidemiological and clinical studies, though the interaction between the immune system and HDL has never been thoroughly addressed. Therefore, we hypothesized that under oxidative and pro-inflammatory conditions, the increase in the antigen (HDL) would lead to a consequent increase in the production of anti-HDL (aHDL) antibodies be responsible for quantitative and/or qualitative changes of HDL. The concept that these antibodies may contribute either to the long-term evolution of atherosclerosis or to the triggering of clinical events may also explain the heterogeneity found in individual patients and in large cohorts regarding risk factors and clinical outcomes. Moreover this may be a major breakthrough in understanding why therapeutic interventions that increase HDL levels, failed to show the anticipated reduction in vascular risk. The overall aims of this thesis were to identified and characterize the humoral response towards HDL components and to evaluate the possible mechanisms that may contribute to the modifications of the anti-atherogenic properties of HDL. To achieve this objective we investigated: 1) the presence of aHDL antibodies in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and in patients with atherosclerosis-related clinical events, such as coronary artery disease (CAD), ischemic stroke (IS) and type 2 diabetes; 2) the association between the titres of aHDL antibodies and different clinical features of these diseases; 3) the modifications of the anti-atherogenic properties of HDL; 4) the biologic effect of aHDL antibodies isolated from serum of patients on the anti-oxidant and anti-inflammatory properties of HDL; 5) the effect of different pharmacologic treatments for dyslipidemia on the prevalence and activity of aHDL antibodies. The methodologies used in this work included immunologic-related techniques (e.g. enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay – ELISA, immunoturbidimetric immunoassay and immunoaffinity chromatography), biochemical techniques (enzymatic assays with quantification by spectrophotometry and luminescence methods), cell culture experiments and flow cytometry. Our results indicate that: 1) The titres of IgG aHDL, anti-apolipoprotein A-I (aApoA-I) and anti-paraoxonase 1 (aPON1) antibodies were higher in patients with SLE, CAD, IS and type 2 diabetes when compared with age and sex matched healthy controls. 2) The antibodies found in these patients were associated with decreased PON1 activity, (the enzyme responsible for most of the anti-oxidant effect of HDL), reduced total anti-oxidant capacity (TAC) of serum and increased biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction (nitric oxide metabolites, adhesion molecules, nitrotyrosine). In patients with SLE the antibody titres were associated with an increase in disease-related cardiovascular damage and activity whereas in patients with type 2 diabetes they were directly related with the fasting glucose plasma (FGP) levels and the glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c). 3) The antibodies isolated from serum of our patients, directly inhibited HDL-associated PON1 activity in a dose dependent way ranging from 7 to 52%. 4) The anti-inflammatory effect of HDL, measured by the percentage of inhibition of the cytokine-induced production of vascular adhesion molecules (VCAM-1), was reduced in more than 80% by aHDL antibodies isolated from our patients. 5) The HDL-induced angiogenesis by increasing vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) levels was abrogated in 65% by the antibodies isolated from serum of patients. 6) The current available pharmacologic agents for increasing HDL-C concentrations were associated with an increase in the titres of IgG aApoA-I antibodies. This increase was higher in the extended release niacin when compared to statins probably due to their dampening effect on oxidative stress. In conclusion, aHDL antibodies are present in different pathologic conditions. aHDL antibodies represent a family of self-reacting immunoglobulins, of which ApoA-I and PON1 might be the most relevant targets. These antibodies are biologically active, interfering with the HDL anti-oxidant and anti-inflammatory properties and, consequently, with the atherosclerotic process. The pathogenic potential of these antibodies may lead to the identification of a new biomarker for vascular disease, whilst presenting itself as a novel target for a different treatment approach which may redefine the treatment strategies and clinical trials design for HDL interventions in the future.