Equivalência ricardiana: evidência empírica para o caso do Brasil

Este trabalho tem por objetivo principal avaliar a existência de equivalência ricardiana no Brasil. Para isto, empregam-se três metodologias distintas. Inicialmente, com base no modelo de Enders e Lee (1990), utilizam-se regressões do tipo VAR e VEC e decomposição de variância para avaliar de que forma consumo e exportações líquidas reagem a variações não-antecipadas da dívida do setor público, mantidos constantes os gastos do governo. Em seguida, com base no mesmo modelo teórico, estimam-se parâmetros relativos à função consumo e testam-se as restrições de sobre-identificação associadas à técnica de MGM. Por último, efetuam-se testes relativos à restrição de liquidez com base no modelo de consumidores restritos de Campbell e Mankiw (1989). Embora alguns dos resultados sejam inconclusos, particularmente quando se utilizam os dois primeiros métodos de investigação (análise de variância e teste das restrições de sobre-identificação), de modo geral concluímos pela não-validade da hipótese para o Brasil. Teoricamente, isto é compatível com o fato de se ter uma parcela substancial de consumidores brasileiros restritos na obtenção de crédito (a exemplo do que já haviam também concluído Reis, Issler, Blanco e Carvalho (1998) e Issler e Rocha (2000) e do que também concluímos na última seção.

Wealth composition, endogenous fertility and the dynamics of income inequality

This paper analyzes how differences in the composition of wealth between human and physical capital among families affect fertility choices. These in tum influence the dynamics of wealth and income inequality across generations through a tradeoffbetween quantity and quality of children. Wealth composition affects fertility because physical capital has only a wealth effect on number of children, whereas human capital increases the time cost of child-rearing in addition to the wealth effect. I construct a model combining endogenous fertility with borrowing constraints in human capital investments, in which weaIth composition is determined endogenously. The model is calibrated to the PNAD, a Brazilian household survey, and the main findings of the paper can be summarized as follows. First, the model implies that the crosssection relationship between fertility and wealth typically displays a U-shaped pattem, reflecting differences in wealth composition between poor and rich families. Also, the quantity-quality tradeoff implies a concave cross-section relationship between investments per child and wealth. Second, as the economy develops and families overcome their bOlTowing constraints, the negative effect of weaIth on fertility becomes smaller, and persistence of inequality declines accordingly. The empirical evidence presented in this paper is consistent with both implications .

Do dividends signal more earnings? a theoretical analysis

The signaling models have contributed to the literature of corporate finance by the formalization of "the informational content of dividends hypothesis". However, these models are under criticism of empirical works, as weak evidences were found supporting one of the main predictions: the positive relation between changes in dividends and changes in earnings. We claim that the failure to verify this prediction does not invalidate the signaling approach. The mo deIs developed up to now assume or derive utility functions with the single-crossing property. We show that signaling is possible in the absence of this property and, in this case, changes in dividend and changes in earnings can be positively or negatively related.

The power of the purse : what do the data say on US federal budget allocation to the states?

This paper provides new evidence on the determinants of the allocation of the US federal budget to the states and tests the capability of congressional, electoral and partisan theories to explain such allocation. We find that socio-economic characteristics are important explanatory variables but are not sufficient to explain the disparities in the distribution of federal monies. First, prestige committee membership is not conducive to pork-barrelling. We do not find any evidence that marginal states receive more funding; on the opposite, safe states tend to be rewarded. Also, states that are historically "swing" in presidential elections tend to receive more funds. Finally, we find strong evidence supporting partisan theories of budget allocation. States whose governor has the same political affiliation of the President receive more federal funds; while states whose representatives belong to a majority opposing the president party receive less funds.

Using irregularly spaced returns to estimate multi-factor models : application to Brazilian equity data

Multi-factor models constitute a use fui tool to explain cross-sectional covariance in equities retums. We propose in this paper the use of irregularly spaced returns in the multi-factor model estimation and provide an empirical example with the 389 most liquid equities in the Brazilian Market. The market index shows itself significant to explain equity returns while the US$/Brazilian Real exchange rate and the Brazilian standard interest rate does not. This example shows the usefulness of the estimation method in further using the model to fill in missing values and to provide intervaI forecasts.

Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects

There are plenty of economic studies pointing out some requirements, like the inexistence of fiscal dominance, for inflation targeting framework be implemented in successful (credible) way. Essays on how public targets could be used in the absence of such requirements are unusual. In this papel' we appraise how central banks could use inflation targeting before soundness economic fundamentaIs have been achieved. First, based on concise framework, where confidence crises and imperfect information are neglected, we conclude that less ambitious (greater) target for inflation increases the credibility in the precommitment. Optimal target is higher than the one obtained using the Cukierman-Liviatan [7] model, where increasing credibility effect is not considered. Second, extending the model to make confidence crises possible, multiple equilibria solutions becomes possible too. In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crises and reduce the policymaker credibility. On the other hand, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. The optimal target depends on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Finally, when perturbing common knowledge uniqueness is restored even considering confidence crises, as in Morris-Shin[ 14]. The first result, i.e. less ambitious target for inflation increases credibility in precommitment, is also recovered. Adding a precise public signal, cOOl'dinated self-fulfilling actions and equilibrium multiplicity may still exist for some lack of common knowledge (as in Angeleto and Weming[l]). In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crisis again, reducing the policymaker credibility. From another aspect, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. Optimal policy prescriptions depend on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Results also indicate that more precise public information may open the door for bad equilibrium, contrary to the conventional wisdom that more central oank transparency is always good when considering inflation targeting framework.

Do police reduce crime? Estimates using the allocation of police forces after a terrorist attack

An important challenge in the crime literature is to isolate causal effects of police on crime. Following a terrorist attack on the main Jewish center in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, in July 1994, all Jewish institutions (including schools, synagogues, and clubs) were given 24-hour police protection. Thus, this hideous event induced a geographical allocation of police forces that can be presumed to be exogenous in a crime regression. Using data on the location of car thefts before and after the terrorist attack, we find a large deterrent effect of observable police presence on crime. The effect is local, with little or no appreciable impact outside the narrow area in which the police are deployed.

Wage inequality and trade liberalization : evidence from Argentina

Wage inequality has increased substantially in Argentina during the nineties. At the same time during this decade Argentina has gone through a rapid and deep process of trade liberalization. In this paper we try to associate both phenomena. In particular, we attempt to answer the following question: Did trade liberalization play any role in shaping the argentine wage structure during the period studied? Specifically, we test whether those sectors where import penetration deepened are also the sectors where, ceteris paribus, a higher increase in wage inequality has taken place. We fmd evidence that supports this hypothesis.

Optimal provision of implicit and explicit incentives in asset management contracts

This paper investigates the importance of the fiow of funds as an implicit incetive provided by investors to portfolio managers in a two-period relationship. We show that the fiow of funds is a powerful incentive in an asset management contract. We build a binomial moral hazard model to explain the main trade-ofIs in the relationship between fiow, fees and performance. The main assumption is that efIort depend" on the combination of implicit and explicit incentives while the probability distrioutioll function of returns depends on efIort. In the case of full commitment, the investor's relevant trade-ofI is to give up expected return in the second period vis-à-vis to induce efIort in the first período The more concerned the investor is with today's payoff. the more willing he will be to give up expected return in the following periods. That is. in the second period, the investor penalizes observed low returns by withdrawing resources from non-performing portfolio managers. Besides, he pays performance fee when the observed excess return is positive. When commitment is not a plausible hypothesis, we consider that the investor also learns some symmetríc and imperfect information about the ability of the manager to generate positive excess returno In this case, observed returns reveal ability as well as efIort choices exerted by the portfolio manager. We show that implicit incentives can explain the fiow-performance relationship and, conversely, endogenous expected return determines incentives provision and define their optimal leveIs. We provide a numerical solution in Matlab that characterize these results.

Mid-auction information acquisition

This paper studies a model of a sequential auction where bidders are allowed to acquire further information about their valuations of the object in the middle of the auction. It is shown that, in any equilibrium where the distribution of the final price is atornless, a bidder's best response has a simple characterization. In particular, the optimal information acquisition point is the same, regardless of the other bidders' actions. This makes it natural to focus on symmetric, undominated equilibria, as in the Vickrey auction. An existence theorem for such a class of equilibria is presented. The paper also presents some results and numerical simulations that compare this sequential auction with the one-shot auction. 8equential auctions typically yield more expected revenue for the seller than their one-shot counterparts. 80 the possibility of mid-auction information acquisition can provide an explanation for why sequential procedures are more often adopted.

Anuário de Publicações 2014

Este Anuário apresenta as publicações do corpo docente em tempo integral e parcial da FGV DIREITO RIO no ano de 2014, incluindo livros, artigos acadêmicos, trabalhos que integram anais de seminários e congressos, revisões técnicas de traduções, bem como artigos em revistas e jornais.

Estratégias locais para a redução da pobreza: construindo a cidadania

Em outubro de 1998, o Programa Gestão Pública e Cidadania da Fundação Getúlio Vargas de São Paulo, com o apoio da Fundação Ford, realizou no Rio de Janeiro o primeiro de um ciclo de quatro seminários voltados à análise e reflexão de estratégias locais para redução da pobreza. Em cada encontro de dois dias, por volta de 30 pessoas de diferentes universos de ação (pesquisa acadêmica, organizações comunitárias, ONGs, secretarias de governos municipal e estadual, banco de desenvolvimento e instituições multilaterais) estiveram presentes para debater o espaço possível de ação local no enfrentamento da pobreza

Monetary policy, default risk and the exchange rate

In a country with high probability of default, higher interest rates may render the currency less attractive if sovereign default is costly. This paper develops that intuition in a simple model and estimates the effect of changes in interest rates on the exchange rate in Brazil using data from the dates surrounding the monetary policy committee meetings and the methodology of identification through heteroskedasticity. Indeed, we find that unexpected increases in interest rates tend to lead the Brazilian currency to depreciate. It follows that granting more independence to a central bank that focus solely on inflation is not always a free-lunch.

The effects of accountability on higher education

This paper analyzes the effect of an accountability system in the Brazilian college market. For each discipline, colleges were assigned a grade that depended on the scores of their students on the ENC, an annual mandatory exam. Those grades were then disclosed to the public, giving applicants information about college quality. The system also established rewards and penalties based on the colleges’ grades. I find that the ENC had a substantial effect on different measures of college quality, such as faculty education and the proportion of full-time faculty. The detailed information from this unique dataset and the fact that the ENC started being required for different disciplines in different years allow me to control for time-specific effects, thus minimizing the bias caused by policy endogeneity. Indeed, I find strong evidence on the importance of controlling for time-specific effects: estimates of the impact of the ENC on college quality more than double when I do not take those effects into account. The ENC also affects positively the ratio between applicants and vacancies, and it decreases the faculty and the entering class sizes. The results suggest that its introduction fostered competition and favored colleges entering the market.

Barriers to entry and development

This paper analyzes the effect of an accountability system in the Brazilian college market. For each discipline, colleges were assigned a grade that depended on the scores of their students on the ENC, an annual mandatory exam. Those grades were then disclosed to the public, giving applicants information about college quality. The system also established rewards and penalties based on the colleges’ grades. I find that the ENC had a substantial effect on different measures of college quality, such as faculty education and the proportion of full-time faculty. The detailed information from this unique dataset and the fact that the ENC started being required for different disciplines in different years allow me to control for time-specific effects, thus minimizing the bias caused by policy endogeneity. Indeed, I find strong evidence on the importance of controlling for time-specific effects: estimates of the impact of the ENC on college quality more than double when I do not take those effects into account. The ENC also affects positively the ratio between applicants and vacancies, and it decreases the faculty and the entering class sizes. The results suggest that its introduction fostered competition and favored colleges entering the market.