Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Growth defect in Grg5 null mice is associated with reduced Ihh signaling in growth plates

Gene-targeted disruption of Grg5, a mouse homologue of Drosophila groucho (gro), results in postnatal growth retardation in mice. The growth defect, most striking in approximately half of the Grg5 null mice, occurs during the first 4-5 weeks of age, but most mice recover retarded growth later. We used the nonlinear mixed-effects model to fit the growth data of wild-type, heterozygous, and Grg5 null mice. On the basis of preliminary evidence suggesting an interaction between Grg5 and the transcription factor Cbfa1/Runx2, critical for skeletal development, we further investigated the skeleton in the mice. A long bone growth plate defect was identified, which included shorter zones of proliferative and hypertrophic chondrocytes and decreased trabecular bone formation. This decreased trabecular bone formation is likely caused by a reduced recruitment of osteoblasts into the growth plate region of Grg5 null mice. Like the growth defect, the growth plate and trabecular bone abnormality improved as the mice grew older. The growth plate defect was associated with reduced Indian hedgehog expression and signaling. We suggest that Grg5, a transcriptional coregulator, modulates the activities of transcription factors, such as Cbfa1/Runx2 in vivo to affect Ihh expression and the function of long bone growth plates.

Effect of individual variability on estimation of population parameters from length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity and investigate the possible bias in the estimates when the individual variability is ignored. Three methods are examined: (i) the regression method based on the Beverton and Holt's (1956, Rapp. P.V. Reun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 140: 67-83) equation; (ii) the moment method of Powell (1979, Rapp. PV. Reun. Int. Explor. Mer, 175: 167-169); and (iii) a generalization of Powell's method that estimates the individual variability to be incorporated into the estimation. It is found that the biases in the estimates from the existing methods are, in general, substantial, even when individual variability in growth is small and recruitment is uniform, and the generalized method performs better in terms of bias but is subject to a larger variation. There is a need to develop robust and flexible methods to deal with individual variability in the analysis of length-frequency data.

Spawning stock dynamics of two penaeid prawns, Metapenaeus bennettae and Penaeus esculentus, in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

Spawning stock dynamics of 2 commercially important penaeid prawns, Metapenaeus bennettae and Penaeus esculentus, from 9 stations in Moreton Bay (27°15'S, 153°15'E), southeast Queensland, Australia, were examined. An egg production index (EPI), based on the relative abundance, proportion that were mature or ripe, and size of adult females, was used as a measure of egg production in the 2 populations. Egg production by M. bennettae was 20 to 30 higher than that by P. esculentus, extended over 7 to 8 mo each year and peaked from February to March (late summer to early autumn). Monthly patterns in egg production by M. bennettae varied between years. In contrast, P. esculentus produced most of its eggs in a single, clearly defined peak in October (spring), although production continued to March (early autumn) each year. The seasonal onset and subsequent decline in maturation in P. esculentus were rapid. Egg production by M. bennettae was several times higher at the 5 northern stations than at the 4 southern stations and negatively correlated with salinity during the main spawning period. Egg production by P. esculentus was less varied among stations and positively correlated with depth. P. esculentus appeared more likely than M. bennettae to experience recruitment overfishing because (1) the peak spawning period for P. esculentus was dependent on relatively few adult females spawning over a short period, and (2) the selectivity of trawl nets used in the bay was much higher for P. esculentus spawners than for those of M. bennettae. Compared with more northern populations, P. esculentus in Moreton Bay matured at a larger size, had lower incidences of insemination and mature or ripe females, and had a shorter spawning period. These results suggest the likelihood of recruitment overfishing in P. esculentus increases with increasing latitude.

Recovery and succession in a multi-species tropical seagrass meadow following experimental disturbance: the role of sexual and asexual reproduction

Recolonisation and succession in a multi-species tropical seagrass meadow was examined by creating gaps (50×50 cm) in the meadow and manipulating the supply of sexual and asexual propagules. Measurements of leaf shoot density and estimates of above-ground biomass were conducted monthly to measure recovery of gaps between September 1995 and November 1997. Measurements of the seeds stored in the sediment (seed bank) and horizontal rhizome growth of colonising species were also conducted to determine their role in the recovery process. Asexual colonisation through horizontal rhizome growth from the surrounding meadow was the main mechanism for colonisation of gaps created in the meadow. The seed bank played no role in recolonisation of cleared plots. Total shoot density and above-ground biomass (all species pooled) of cleared plots recovered asexually to the level of the undisturbed controls in 10 and 7 months, respectively. There was some sexual recruitment into cleared plots where asexual colonisation was prevented but seagrass abundance (shoot density and biomass) did not reach the level of unmanipulated controls. Seagrass species did not appear to form seed banks despite some species being capable of producing long-lived seeds. The species composition of cleared plots remained different to the undisturbed controls throughout the 26-month experiment. Syringodium isoetifolium was a rapid asexual coloniser of disturbed plots and remained at higher abundances than in the control treatments for the duration of the study. S. isoetifolium had the fastest horizontal rhizome growth of species asexually colonising cleared plots (6.9 mm day−1). Halophila ovalis was the most successful sexual coloniser but was displaced by asexually colonising species. H. ovalis was the only species observed to produce fruits during the study. Small disturbances in the meadow led to long-term (>2 years) changes in community composition. This study demonstrated that succession in tropical seagrass communities was not a deterministic process. Variations in recovery observed for different tropical seagrass communities highlighted the importance of understanding life history characteristics of species within individual communities to effectively predict their response to disturbance. A reproductive strategy involving clonal growth and production of long-lived, locally dispersed seeds is suggested which may provide an evolutionary advantage to plants growing in tropical environments subject to temporally unpredictable major disturbances such as cyclones

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 4. The effects of burning on H.contortus and Aristida spp. populations

This paper reports an experiment undertaken to examine the impact of burning in spring together with reduced grazing pressure on the dynamics of H. contortus and Aristida spp. In H. contortus pasture in south-eastern Queensland. The overall results indicate that spring burning in combination with reduced grazing pressure had no marked effect on the density of either grass species. This was attributed to 2 factors. Firstly, extreme drought conditions restricted any increase in H. contortus seedling establishment despite the presence of an adequate soil seed bank prior to summer; and secondly, some differences occurred in the response to fire of the diverse taxonomic groupings in the species of Aristida spp. present at the study site. This study concluded that it is necessary to identify appropriate taxonomic units within the Aristida genus and that, where appropriate, burning in spring to manage pasture composition should be conducted under favorable rainfall conditions using seasonal forecasting indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index

Effects of severity of threshing damage on seed quality of Gatton panic Panicum maximum)

Different degrees of severity of threshing were imposed during combine-harvesting of seed of Gatton panic, a cultivar of Panicum maximum , to determine effects of degree of threshing damage on subsequent properties of seed. Threshing cylinder peripheral speeds and concave clearances covering the normal range employed commercially were varied experimentally in the harvest of 2 crops grown in north Queensland. Harvested seed was dried and cleaned, then stored under ambient conditions. The extent of physical damage was measured, and samples were tested at intervals for viability, germination, dormancy and seedling emergence from soil in a glasshouse and in the field over the 2 seasons following harvest. Physical damage increased as peripheral rotor speed rose and (though less markedly) as concave clearance was reduced. As the level of damage increased, viability was progressively reduced, life expectancy was shortened, and dormancy was broken. When the consequences were measured as seedling emergence from soil, the adverse effects on viability tended to cancel out the benefits of dormancy-breaking, leaving few net differences attributable to the degree of threshing severity. We concluded that there would be no value in trying to manipulate the quality of seed produced for normal commercial use through choice of cylinder settings, but that deliberate light or heavy threshing could benefit special-purpose seed, destined, respectively, for long-term storage or immediate use.

Stock assessment of the Queensland-New South Wales tailor fishery (Pomatomus saltatrix)

Data on catch sizes, catch rates, length-frequency and age composition from the Australian east coast tailor fishery are analysed by three different population dynamic models: a surplus production model, an age-structured model, and a model in which the population is structured by both age and length. The population is found to be very heavily exploited, with its ability to reproduce dependent on the fishery’s incomplete selectivity of one-year-old fish. Estimates of recent harvest rates (proportion of fish available to the fishery that are actually caught in a single year) are over 80%. It is estimated that only 30–50% of one-year-old fish are available to the fishery. Results from the age-length-structured model indicate that both exploitable biomass (total mass of fish selected by the fishery) and egg production have fallen to about half the levels that prevailed in the 1970s, and about 40% of virgin levels. Two-year-old fish appear to have become smaller over the history of the fishery. This is assumed to be due to increased fishing pressure combined with non-selectivity of small one-year-old fish, whereby the one-year-old fish that survive fishing are small and grow into small two-year-old fish the following year. An alternative hypothesis is that the stock has undergone a genetic change towards smaller fish; the true explanation is unknown. The instantaneous natural mortality rate of tailor is hypothesised to be higher than previously thought, with values between 0.8 and 1.3 yr–1 consistent with the models. These values apply only to tailor up to about three years of age, and it is possible that a lower value applies to fish older than three. The analysis finds no evidence that fishing pressure has yet affected recruitment. If a recruitment downturn were to occur, however, under current management and fishing pressure there is a strong chance that the fishery would need a complete closure for several years to recover, and even then recovery would be uncertain. Therefore it is highly desirable to better protect the spawning stock. The major recommendations are • An increase in the minimum size limit from 30cm to 40cm in order to allow most one-year-old fish to spawn, and • An experiment on discard mortality to gauge the proportion of fish between 30cm and 40cm that are likely to survive being caught and released by recreational line fishers (the dominant component of the fishery, currently harvesting roughly 1000t p.a. versus about 200t p.a. from the commercial fishery).

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Association of a second phase of mortality in cucumber seedlings with a rapid rate of metalaxyl biodegradation in greenhouse soils

A study was undertaken from 2004 to 2007 to investigate factors associated with decreased efficacy of metalaxyl to manage damping-off of cucumber in Oman. A survey over six growing seasons showed that growers lost up to 14.6% of seedlings following application of metalaxyl. No resistance to metalaxyl was found among Pythium isolates. Damping-off disease in the surveyed greenhouses followed two patterns. In most (69%) greenhouses, seedling mortality was found to occur shortly after transplanting and decrease thereafter (Phase-I). However, a second phase of seedling mortality (Phase-II) appeared 9-14 d after transplanting in about 31% of the surveyed greenhouses. Analysis of the rate of biodegradation of metalaxyl in six greenhouses indicated a significant increase in the rate of metalaxyl biodegradation in greenhouses, which encountered Phase-II damping-off. The half-life of metalaxyl dropped from 93 d in soil, which received no previous metalaxyl treatment to 14 d in soil, which received metalaxyl for eight consecutive seasons, indicating an enhanced rate of metalaxyl biodegradation after repeated use. Multiple applications of metalaxyl helped reduce the appearance of Phase-II damping-off. This appears to be the first report of rapid biodegradation of metalaxyl in greenhouse soils and the first report of its association with appearance of a second phase of mortality in cucumber seedlings.

Melaleuca densispicata in Currawinya National Park, South-West Queensland: Ecology and preliminary implications for management of a rare plant species

Melaleuca densispicata Byrnes is an uncommon species with a limited distribution, comprising disjunct populations in inland southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, Australia. It is a dense, woody shrub, 2–4 m in height, which exhibits a marked 'clumping' growth habit. It has thick, papery bark and displays many white flowers during spring or early summer. Although it has long been known to exist, M. densispicata was only formally described in 1984, and very little is currently known about its ecology or specific management requirements. There are only seven known subpopulations of the species across its range. A major population at the western limit of its distribution occurs on Currawinya National Park (28°52'S, 144°30'E). Here, it is locally abundant and listed as a noteworthy plant species under the Management Plan (Queensland Parks & Wildlife Service 2001). This study aimed to identify patterns in the distribution of M. densispicata in Currawinya National Park, describe its ecological niche and role, and provide management recommendations for the species within the study area. Recent anecdotal observations of recruitment failure in south-western Queensland (Peter McRae, QPWS, October 2004, pers. comm.; Dick O'Connell, local grazier, July 2005 pers. comm.) caused additional emphasis to be placed on the examination of recruitment and recruitment factors.

Genetic control of propagation traits in a single Corymbia torelliana x Corymbia variegata family

Genetic control of vegetative propagation traits was described for a second-generation, outbred, intersectional hybrid family (N = 208) derived from two species, Corymbia torelliana (F. Muell.) K.D. Hill & L.A.S. Johnson and Corymbia variegata (F. Muell.) K.D. Hill & L.A.S. Johnson, which contrast for propagation characteristics and in their capacity to develop lignotubers. Large phenotypic variances were evident for rooting and most other propagation traits, with significant proportions attributable to differences between clones (broad-sense heritabilities 0.2-0.5). Bare root assessment of rooting rate and root quality parameters tended to have the highest heritabilities, whereas rooting percentage based on root emergence from pots and shoot production were intermediate. Root biomass and root initiation had the lowest heritabilities. Strong favourable genetic correlations were found between rooting percentage and root quality traits such as root biomass, volume, and length. Lignotuber development on a seedling was associated with low rooting and a tendency to poor root quality in cuttings and was in accord with the persistence of species parent types due to gametic phase disequilibrium. On average, nodal cuttings rooted more frequently and with higher quality root systems, but significant cutting type x genotype interaction indicated that for some clones, higher rooting rates were obtained from tips. Low germination, survival of seedlings, and rooting rates suggested strong hybrid breakdown in this family.

Fostering interpersonal trust on social media: Physicians' perspectives and experiences

Background The problem of developing and sustaining mutual trust is one of the main barriers to knowledge sharing on social media platforms such as blogs, wikis, micro-blogs and social networking websites. While many studies argue that mutual trust is necessary for online communication and knowledge sharing, few have actually explored and demonstrated how physicians can establish and sustain trusted relationships on social media. Objectives To identify approaches through which physicians establish interpersonal trust on social media. Methods Twenty-four physicians, who were active users of social media, were interviewed using a semi-structured approach between 2013 and 2014. Snowball sampling was employed for participant recruitment. The data were analysed using a thematic analysis approach. Results Physicians trust their peers on social media in a slightly different way than in face-to-face communication. The study found that the majority of participants established trust on social media mainly through previous personal interaction, authenticity and relevancy of voice, professional standing, consistency of communication, peer recommendation, and non-anonymous and moderated sites. Conclusions Healthcare professionals need to approach social media carefully when using it for knowledge sharing, networking and developing trusted relations with like-minded peers.

Effects of rootstock and nitrogen fertiliser on postharvest anthracnose development in Hass avocado

These rootstock and nitrogen fertiliser studies confirmed that rootstock race can significantly affect the development of postharvest disease and mineral nutrient accumulation in Hass avocado fruit. When Hass (Guatemalan race) was grafted to seedling Velvick (West Indian race) rootstock, the severity and incidence of anthracnose in fruit were significantly reduced by up to 64 and 37%, respectively, compared with seedling Duke 6 (Mexican race) rootstock. Stem-end rot was also influenced by rootstock in some seasons, and significant reductions (up to 87%) in the severity and incidence of stem-end rot were recorded in Hass fruit from Velvick compared with Duke 6 rootstock trees. These improvements in postharvest diseases were associated with significantly lower concentrations of nitrogen and potassium, higher concentrations of calcium and magnesium, lower ratios of nitrogen:calcium and higher ratios of calcium + magnesium:potassium in Hass leaves and fruit from Velvick compared with Duke 6 rootstock trees. Altering the rate of nitrogen fertiliser had minimal impact on postharvest disease development. However, in one season, reducing the rate of nitrogen fertiliser to nil significantly reduced the concentration of nitrogen in the fruit skin, decreased the nitrogen:calcium ratio and significantly reduced the severity and incidence of anthracnose in Hass fruit from both Velvick and Duke 6 rootstock trees. The form of nitrogen fertiliser (ammonium compared with nitrate) applied to the trees did not significantly affect the postharvest disease susceptibility of Hass avocado fruit on either Velvick or Duke 6 rootstock. The Guatemalan race rootstocks, Anderson 8 and Anderson 10, were also found to be superior to the Mexican race rootstock, Parida 1, for reducing anthracnose severity. This again, was associated with a better balance of mineral nutrients (significantly lower nitrogen:calcium and higher calcium + magnesium:potassium ratios) in the fruit. This rootstock effect, however, was only observed in the first season of a 3-year experiment, possibly because of a better balance between vegetative growth and fruit production in Parida 1 in the latter two seasons. Significant positive correlations between anthracnose severity and fruit skin nitrogen:calcium ratios were evident across all experiments.

Economic analyses of options for weedy Sporobolus grass management

Weedy Sporobolus grasses have low palatability for livestock, with infestations reducing land condition and pastoral productivity. Control and containment options are available, but the cost of weed control is high relative to the extra return from livestock, thus, limiting private investment. This paper outlines a process for analysing the economic consequences of alternative management options for weedy Sporobolus grasses. This process is applicable to other weeds and other pastoral degradation or development issues. Using a case study property, three scenarios were developed. Each scenario compared two alternative management options and was analysed using discounted cash flow analysis. Two of the scenarios were based on infested properties and one scenario was based on a currently uninfested property but highly likely to become infested without active containment measures preventing weed seed transport and seedling establishment. The analysis highlighted why particular weedy Sporobolus grass management options may not be financially feasible for the landholder with the infestation. However, at the regional scale, the management options may be highly worthwhile due to a reduction in weed seed movement and new weed invasions. Therefore, to encourage investment by landholders in weedy Sporobolus grass management the investment of public money on behalf of landholders with non-infested properties should be considered.