Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Negative density dependence of seed dispersal and seedling recruitment in a Neotropical palm

Negative density dependence (NDD) of recruitment is pervasive in tropical tree species. We tested the hypotheses that seed dispersal is NDD, due to intraspecific competition for dispersers, and that this contributes to NDD of recruitment. We compared dispersal in the palm Attalea butyracea across a wide range of population density on Barro Colorado Island in Panama and assessed its consequences for seed distributions. We found that frugivore visitation, seed removal and dispersal distance all declined with population density of A. butyracea, demonstrating NDD of seed dispersal due to competition for dispersers. Furthermore, as population density increased, the distances of seeds from the nearest adult decreased, conspecific seed crowding increased and seedling recruitment success decreased, all patterns expected under poorer dispersal. Unexpectedly, however, our analyses showed that NDD of dispersal did not contribute substantially to these changes in the quality of the seed distribution; patterns with population density were dominated by effects due solely to increasing adult and seed density.

Biotic resistance to plant invasion in grassland: Does seed predation increase with resident plant diversity?

Seed predation impacts heavily on plant populations and community composition in grasslands. In particular, generalist seed predators may contribute to biotic resistance, i.e. the ability of resident species in a community to reduce the success of non-indigenous plant invaders. However, little is known of predators' preferences for seeds of indigenous or non-indigenous plant species or how seed predation varies across communities. We hypothesize that seed predation does not differ between indigenous and non-indigenous plant species and that seed predation is positively related to plant species diversity in the resident community. The seed removal of 36 indigenous and non-indigenous grassland species in seven extensively or intensively managed hay meadows across Switzerland covering a species-richness gradient of 18-50 plant species per unit area (c. 2 m(2)) was studied. In mid-summer 2011, c. 24,000 seeds were exposed to predators in Petri dishes filled with sterilized soil, and the proportions of seeds removed were determined after three days' exposure. These proportions varied among species (9.2-62.5%) and hay meadows (17.8-48.6%). Seed removal was not related to seed size. Moreover, it did not differ between indigenous and non-indigenous species, suggesting that mainly generalist seed predators were active. However, seed predation was positively related to plant species richness across a gradient in the range of 18-38 species per unit area, representing common hay meadows in Switzerland. Our results suggest that generalist post-dispersal seed predation contributes to biotic resistance and may act as a filter to plant invasion by reducing the propagule pressure of non-local plant species.

Seedling resistance, tolerance and escape from herbivores: insights from co-dominant canopy tree species in a resource-poor African rain forest

* Although plants can reduce the impacts of herbivory in multiple ways, these defensive traits are often studied in isolation and an understanding of the resulting strategies is incomplete. * In the study reported here, empirical evidence was simultaneously evaluated for the three main sets of traits available to plants: (i) resistance through constitutive leaf traits, (ii) tolerance to defoliation and (iii) escape in space, for three caesalpiniaceous tree species Microberlinia bisulcata, Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and T. korupensis, which co-dominate groves within the lowland primary rain forest of Korup National Park (Cameroon). * Mesh cages were placed around individual wild seedlings to exclude insect herbivores at 41 paired canopy gap and understorey locations. After following seedling growth and survival for c. 2 years, caged and control treatments were removed, leaves harvested to determine nutrient and phenolic concentrations, leaf mass per area estimated, and seedling performance in gaps followed for a further c. 2 years to quantify tolerance to the leaf harvesting. * The more nutrient-rich leaves of the weakly shade-tolerant M. bisulcata were damaged much more in gaps than the two strongly shade-tolerant Tetraberlinia species, which had higher leaf mass per area and concentrations of total phenols. Conversely, the faster-growing M. bisulcata was better able to tolerate defoliation in terms of height growth (reflushing capacity), but not at maintaining overall leaf numbers, than the other two species. * Across gaps, insect-mediated Janzen–Connell effects were most pronounced for M. bisulcata, less so for T. korupensis, and not detectable for T. bifoliolata. The three species differed distinctly in their secondary metabolic profiles. * Taken together, the results suggested a conceptual framework linking the three sets of traits, one in which the three co-dominant species adopt different strategies towards herbivore pressure depending on their different responses to light availability. This study is one of the first in a natural forest ecosystem to examine resistance to, tolerance of, and escape from herbivory among a group of co-occurring tropical tree species.

Effect of a Traditional Processing Method on the Chemical Composition of Local White Lupin (Lupinus albus L.) Seed in North-Western Ethiopia

The effect of a traditional Ethiopian lupin processing method on the chemical composition of lupin seed samples was studied. Two sampling districts, namely Mecha and Sekela, representing the mid- and high-altitude areas of north-western Ethiopia, respectively, were randomly selected. Different types of traditionally processed and marketed lupin seed samples (raw, roasted, and fi nished) were collected in six replications from each district. Raw samples are unprocessed, and roasted samples are roasted using fi rewood. Finished samples are those ready for human consumption as snack. Thousand seed weight for raw and roasted samples within a study district was similar (P > 0.05), but it was lower (P < 0.01) for fi nished samples compared to raw and roasted samples. The crude fi bre content of fi nished lupin seed sample from Mecha was lower (P < 0.01) than that of raw and roasted samples. However, the different lupin samples from Sekela had similar crude fi bre content (P > 0.05). The crude protein and crude fat contents of fi nished samples within a study district were higher (P < 0.01) than those of raw and roasted samples, respectively. Roasting had no effect on the crude protein content of lupin seed samples. The crude ash content of raw and roasted lupin samples within a study district was higher (P < 0.01) than that of fi nished lupin samples of the respective study districts. The content of quinolizidine alkaloids of fi nished lupin samples was lower than that of raw and roasted samples. There was also an interaction effect between location and lupin sample type. The traditional processing method of lupin seeds in Ethiopia has a positive contribution improving the crude protein and crude fat content, and lowering the alkaloid content of the fi nished product. The study showed the possibility of adopting the traditional processing method to process bitter white lupin for the use as protein supplement in livestock feed in Ethiopia, but further work has to be done on the processing method and animal evaluation.

Teḥinnôt : ein gebeṭbuch fir gebildeṭe froientzimmer zum gebroich bai der effenṭlichen und haizlichen andachṭ ; nach forhandenen alṭ-daiṭšen teḥines in rain daiṭš abgedrukṭ ...

der ferfaser Jehošua Hešil Miro

Di bolšewisṭiše hagode : miṭ a sak šehne maiśes un mešolim, miṭ perušim un dinim ... oif rain ivri-ṭaiṭš ...

fun Tunkelen

Variation in life-history traits and their plasticities to elevational transplantation among seed families suggests potential for adaptative evolution of 15 tropical plant species to climate change

• Premise of the study: Because not all plant species will be able to move in response to global warming, adaptive evolution matters largely for plant persistence. As prerequisites for adaptive evolution, genetic variation in and selection on phenotypic traits are needed, but these aspects have not been studied in tropical species. We studied how plants respond to transplantation to different elevations on Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, and whether there is quantitative genetic (among-seed family) variation in and selection on life-history traits and their phenotypic plasticity to the different environments. • Methods: We reciprocally transplanted seed families of 15 common tropical, herbaceous species of the montane and savanna vegetation zone at Mt. Kilimanjaro to a watered experimental garden in the montane (1450 m) and in the savanna (880 m) zone at the mountain’s slope and measured performance, reproductive, and phenological traits. • Results: Plants generally performed worse in the savanna garden, indicating that the savanna climate was more stressful and thus that plants may suffer from future climate warming. We found significant quantitative genetic variation in all measured performance and reproductive traits in both gardens and for several measures of phenotypic plasticity in response to elevational transplantation. Moreover, we found positive selection on traits at low and intermediate trait values levelling to neutral or negative selection at high values. • Conclusions: We conclude that common plants at Mt. Kilimanjaro express quantitative genetic variation in fitness-relevant traits and in their plasticities, suggesting potential to adapt evolutionarily to future climate warming and increased temperature variability.

Plant regeneration directs changes in grassland composition after extreme drought: a 13-year study in southern Switzerland

1. The cover of plant species was recorded annually from 1988 to 2000 in nine spatially replicated plots in a species-rich, semi-natural meadow at Negrentino (southern Alps). This period showed large climatic variation and included the centennial maximum and minimum frequency of days with ≥ 10 mm of rain. 2. Changes in species composition were compared between three 4-year intervals characterized by increasingly dry weather (1988–91), a preceding extreme drought (1992–95), and increasingly wet weather (1997–2000). Redundancy analysis and anova with repeated spatial replicates were used to find trends in vegetation data across time. 3. Recruitment capacity, the potential for fast clonal growth and seasonal expansion rate were determined for abundant taxa and tested in general linear models (GLM) as predictors for rates of change in relative cover of species across the climatically defined 4-year intervals. 4. Relative cover of the major growth forms present, graminoids and forbs, changed more in the period following extreme drought than at other times. Recruitment capacity was the only predictor of species’ rates of change. 5. Following perturbation, re-colonization was the primary driver of vegetation dynamics. The dominant grasses, which lacked high recruitment from seed, therefore decreased in relative abundance. This effect persisted until the end of the study and may represent a lasting response to an extreme climatic event.

Evaluation of soil salinity amelioration technologies in Timpaki, Crete

Salinization is a soil threat that adversely affects ecosystem services and diminishes soil functions in many arid and semi-arid regions. Soil salinity management depends on a range of factors, and can be complex expensive and time demanding. Besides taking no action, possible management strategies include amelioration and adaptation measures. The WOCAT Technologies Questionnaire is a standardized methodology for monitoring, evaluating and documenting sustainable land management practices through interaction with the stakeholders. Here we use WOCAT for the systematic analysis and evaluation of soil salinization amelioration measures, for the RECARE project Case Study in Greece, the Timpaki basin, a semi-arid region in south-central Crete where the main land use is horticulture in greenhouses irrigated by groundwater. Excessive groundwater abstractions have resulted in a drop of the groundwater level in the coastal part of the aquifer, thus leading to seawater intrusion and in turn to soil salinization due to irrigation with brackish water. Amelioration technologies that have already been applied in the case study by the stakeholders are examined and classified depending on the function they promote and/or improve. The documented technologies are evaluated for their impacts on ecosystem services, cost and input requirements. Preliminary results show that technologies which promote maintaining existing crop types while enhancing productivity and decreasing soil salinity such as composting, mulching, rain water harvesting and seed biopriming are preferred by the stakeholders. Further work will include result validation using qualitative approaches.

Density-dependent dynamics of a dominant rain forest tree change with juvenile stage and time of masting

Although negative density dependence (NDD) can facilitate tree species coexistence in forests, the underlying mechanisms can differ, and rarely are the dynamics of seedlings and saplings studied together. Herein we present and discuss a novel mechanism based on our investigation of NDD predictions for the large, grove-forming ectomycorrhizal mast fruiting tree, Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpiniaceae), in an 82.5-ha plot at Korup, Cameroon. We tested whether juvenile density, size, growth and survival decreases with increasing conspecific adult basal area for 3245 ‘new’ seedlings and 540 ‘old’ seedlings (< 75-cm tall) during an approximately 4-year study period (2008–2012) and for 234 ‘saplings’ (≥ 75-cm tall) during an approximately 6-year study period (2008–2014). We found that the respective densities of new seedlings, old seedlings and saplings were positively, not and negatively related to increasing BA. Maximum leaf numbers and heights of old seedlings were negatively correlated with increasing basal areas, as were sapling heights and stem diameters. Whereas survivorship of new seedlings decreased by more than one-half with increasing basal area over its range in 2010–2012, that of old seedlings decreased by almost two-thirds, but only in 2008–2010, and was generally unrelated to conspecific seedling density. In 2010–2012 relative growth rates in new seedlings’ heights decreased with increasing basal area, as well as with increasing seedling density, together with increasing leaf numbers, whereas old seedlings’ growth was unrelated to either conspecific density or basal area. Saplings of below-average height had reduced survivorship with increasing basal area (probability decreasing from approx. 0.4 to 0.05 over the basal area range tested), but only sapling growth in terms of leaf numbers decreased with increasing basal area. These static and dynamic results indicate that NDD is operating within this system, possibly stabilizing the M. bisulcata population. However, these NDD patterns are unlikely to be caused by symmetric competition or by consumers. Instead, an alternative mechanism for conspecific adult–juvenile negative feedback is proposed, one which involves the interaction between tree phenology and ectomycorrhizal linkages.

Limitation of seedling growth by potassium and magnesium supply for two ectomycorrhizal tree species of a Central African rain forest and its implication for their recruitment

In the ectomycorrhizal caesalpiniaceous groves of southern Korup National Park, the dominant tree species, Microberlinia bisulcata, displays very poor in situ recruitment compared with its codominant, Tetraberlinia bifoliolata. The reported ex situ experiment tested whether availabilities of soil potassium and magnesium play a role. Seedlings of the two species received applications of K and Mg fertilizer in potted native soil in a local shade house, and their responses in terms of growth and nutrient concentrations were recorded over 2 years. Amended soil concentrations were also determined. Microberlinia responded strongly and positively in its growth to Mg, but less to K; Tetraberlinia responded weakly to both. Added Mg led to strongly increased Mg concentration for Microberlinia while added K changed that concentration only slightly; Tetraberlinia strongly increased its concentration of K with added K, but only somewhat its Mg concentration with added Mg. Additions of Mg and K had small but important antagonistic effects. Microberlinia is Mg-demanding and apparently Mg-limited in Korup soil; Tetraberlinia, whilst K-demanding, appeared not to be K-limited (for growth). Added K enhanced plant P concentrations of both species. Extra applied Mg may also be alleviating soil aluminum toxicity, and hence improving growth indirectly and especially to the benefit of Microberlinia. Mg appears to be essential for Microberlinia seedling growth and its low soil availability in grove soils at Korup may be an important contributing factor to its poor recruitment. Microberlinia is highly shade-intolerant and strongly light-responding, whilst Tetraberlinia is more shade-tolerant and moderately light-responding, which affords an interesting contrast with respect to their differing responses to Mg supply. The study revealed novel aspects of functional traits and likely niche-partitioning among ectomycorrhizal caesalps in African rain forests. Identifying the direct and interacting indirect effects of essential elements on tropical tree seedling growth presents a considerable challenge due the complex nexus of causes involved.