Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Optimum harvest maturity for guayule seed

Guayule (Parthenium argentatum Gray) is a rubber-producing shrub native to the semi-arid region of north central Mexico and southwestern Texas. Timely harvest is critical to achieve maximum seed viability, vigour, and yield. The objective of this study was to investigate possible indicators of optimum seed maturity in guayule. The optimum harvest maturity time for guayule was studied by comparing quality parameters at different times after flowering. Heat units expressed as growing degree-days after flowering were calculated and related to seed development stages and quality. Seed quality at different stages of development was assessed by germination, capitulum dry mass, 1000 seed mass, and percentage of filled seeds. The maximum seed quality was recorded at 329 growing degree-days (GDD). This was 28 days from time of flowering. At this date, the moisture content of the capitulum was 48% on a wet basis and the colour was comparable to cinnamon (Code 165C) on the Royal Horticultural Society (R.H.S.) standard colour chart. Of all the parameters GDD, 1000 seed mass, and percentage of filled seeds provided a more rapid and reliable measure of optimum seed maturity. Colour identification can be used as an additional indicator. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climatic regulation of seed dormancy and emergence of diverse Malva parviflora populations from a Mediterranean-type environment

Malva parviflora L. (Malvaceae) is rapidly becoming a serious weed of Australian farming systems. An understanding of the variability of its seed behaviour is required to enable the development of integrated weed management strategies. Mature M. parviflora seeds were collected from four diverse locations in the Mediterranean-type climatic agricultural region of Western Australia. All of the seeds exhibited physical dormancy at collection; manual scarification or a period of fluctuating summer temperatures (50/20 degrees C or natural) were required to release dormancy. When scarified and germinated soon (1 month) after collection, the majority of seeds were able to germinate over a wide range of temperatures (5-37 degrees C) and had no light requirement. Germination was slower for seeds stored for 2 months than seeds stored for 2 years, suggesting the presence of shallow physiological dormancy. Seed populations from regions with similar annual rainfall exhibited similar dormancy release patterns; seeds from areas of low rainfall (337-344mm) were more responsive to fluctuating temperatures, releasing physical dormancy earlier than those from areas of high rainfall (436-444mm). After 36 months, maximum seedling emergence from soil in the field was 60%, with buried seeds producing 13-34% greater emergence than seeds on the surface. Scanning electron microscopy of the seed coat revealed structural differences in the chalazal region of permeable and impermeable seeds, suggesting the importance of this region in physical dormancy breakdown of M. parviflora seeds. The influence of rainfall during plant growth in determining dormancy release, and hence, germination and emergence timing, must be considered when developing management strategies for M. parviflora.

Vase treatments containing gibberellic acid do not increase longevity of cut Grevillea 'Sylvia' inflorescences

The longevity of Grevillea 'Sylvia' inflorescences can be very short and is influenced by exposure to ethylene. Gibberellic acid has the potential to delay senescence in some cut flowers by acting as an anti-ethylene treatment. Gibberellic acid was therefore applied to Grevillea 'Sylvia' inflorescences in vase solutions to determine its effects on longevity. Treatments with gibberellic acid did not prolong the longevity of inflorescences or influence 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid concentrations. Treatments at high gibberellic acid concentrations enhanced flower abscission and we therefore conclude that vase-applied gibberellic acid treatments are not suitable for extending the longevity of cut Grevillea 'Sylvia' inflorescences.

Construction of an Intraplate Fault System Model of South Australia, and Simulation Tool for the iSERVO Institute Seed Project

To foster ongoing international cooperation beyond ACES (APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation) on the simulation of solid earth phenomena, agreement was reached to work towards establishment of a frontier international research institute for simulating the solid earth: iSERVO = International Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory institute (http://www.iservo.edu.au). This paper outlines a key Australian contribution towards the iSERVO institute seed project, this is the construction of: (1) a typical intraplate fault system model using practical fault system data of South Australia (i.e., SA interacting fault model), which includes data management and editing, geometrical modeling and mesh generation; and (2) a finite-element based software tool, which is built on our long-term and ongoing effort to develop the R-minimum strategy based finite-element computational algorithm and software tool for modelling three-dimensional nonlinear frictional contact behavior between multiple deformable bodies with the arbitrarily-shaped contact element strategy. A numerical simulation of the SA fault system is carried out using this software tool to demonstrate its capability and our efforts towards seeding the iSERVO Institute.