Introduction to Basic Health Care Statistics

A video summary by Catherine Comiskey

Introduction to Evaluation and Health Economics

A video summary by Orla Doyle

Clinical characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to a medico- surgical ICU requiring non invasive ventilation (NIV) for hypercapnic respiratory failure

Introduction Because it decreases intubation rate and mortality, NIV has become first-line treatment in case of hypercapnic acute respiratory failure (HARF). Whether this approach is equally successful for all categories of HARF patients is however debated. We assessed if any clinical characteristics of HARF patients were associated with NIV intensity, success, and outcome, in order to identify prognostic factors. Methods Retrospective analysis of the clinical database (clinical information system and MDSi) of patients consecutively admitted to our medico-surgical ICU, presenting with HARF (defined as PaCO2 > 50 mmHg), and receiving NIV between May 2008 and December 2010. Demographic data, medical diagnoses (including documented chronic lung disease), reason for ICU hospitalization, recent surgical interventions, SAPS II and McCabe scores were extracted from the database. Total duration of NIV and the need for tracheal intubation during the 5 days following the first hypercapnia documentation, as well as ICU, hospital and one year mortality were recorded. Results are reported as median [IQR]. Comparisons were carried out with Chi2 or Kruskal-Wallis tests, p<0.05 (*). Results Two hundred and twenty patients were included. NIV successful patients received 16 [9-31] hours of NIV for up to 5 days. Fifty patients (22.7%) were intubated 11 [2-34] hours after HARF occurence, after having receiving 10 [5-21] hours of NIV. Intubation was correlated with increased ICU (18% vs. 6%, p<0.05) and hospital (42% vs. 31%, p>0.05) mortality. SAPS II score was related to increasing ICU (51 [29-74] vs. 23 [12-41]%, p<0.05), hospital (37% [20-59] vs 20% [12-37], p<0.05) and one year mortality (35% vs 20%, p<0.05). Surgical patients were less frequent among hospital fatalities (28.8% vs. 46.3%, p<0.05, RR 0.8 [0-6-0.9]). Nineteen patients (8.6%) died in the ICU, 73 (33.2%) during their hospital stay and 108 (49.1%) were dead one year after HARF. Conclusion The practice to start NIV in all suitable patients suffering from HARF is appropriate. NIV can safely and appropriately be used in patients suffering from HARF from an origin different from COPD exacerbation. Beside usual predictors of severity such as severity score (SAPS II) appear to be associated with increased mortality. Although ICU mortality was low in our patients, hospital and one year mortality were substantial. Surgical patients, although undergoing a similar ICU course, had a better hospital and one year outcome.

Introduction

(Résumé de l'ouvrage) L'apôtre Paul est au centre d'une intense interrogation aujourd'hui. Quel fut son rapport au judaïsme ? Que sait-il de Jésus ? Comment s'est construite sa théologie, d'une épître à l'autre ? Dix-huit biblistes suisses, français, italiens, allemands et américains ont été invités à explorer la question. Leurs analyses sont précises, rigoureuses et documentées. On trouvera ici une synthèse unique en français des plus récentes avancées de la recherche paulinienne.

Red cell distribution width does not predict stroke severity or functional outcome.

INTRODUCTION: Red cell distribution width was recently identified as a predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with previous stroke. Red cell distribution width is also higher in patients with stroke compared with those without. However, there are no data on the association of red cell distribution width, assessed during the acute phase of ischemic stroke, with stroke severity and functional outcome. In the present study, we sought to investigate this relationship and ascertain the main determinants of red cell distribution width in this population. METHODS: We used data from the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne for patients between January 2003 and December 2008. Red cell distribution width was generated at admission by the Sysmex XE-2100 automated cell counter from ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid blood samples stored at room temperature until measurement. An χ(2) -test was performed to compare frequencies of categorical variables between different red cell distribution width quartiles, and one-way analysis of variance for continuous variables. The effect of red cell distribution width on severity and functional outcome was investigated in univariate and multivariate robust regression analysis. Level of significance was set at 95%. RESULTS: There were 1504 patients (72±15·76 years, 43·9% females) included in the analysis. Red cell distribution width was significantly associated to NIHSS (β-value=0·24, P=0·01) and functional outcome (odds ratio=10·73 for poor outcome, P<0·001) at univariate analysis but not multivariate. Prehospital Rankin score (β=0·19, P<0·001), serum creatinine (β=0·008, P<0·001), hemoglobin (β=-0·009, P<0·001), mean platelet volume (β=0·09, P<0·05), age (β=0·02, P<0·001), low ejection fraction (β=0·66, P<0·001) and antihypertensive treatment (β=0·32, P<0·001) were independent determinants of red cell distribution width. CONCLUSIONS: Red cell distribution width, assessed during the early phase of acute ischemic stroke, does not predict severity or functional outcome.

The prediction of cardiovascular events is improved by combination of Framingham risk score and subclinical atherosclerosis imaging

Purpose: In primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), it is accepted that the intensity of risk factor treatment should be guided by the magnitude of absolute risk. Risk factors tools like Framingham risk score (FHS) or noninvasive atherosclerosis imaging tests are available to detect high risk subjects. However, these methods are imperfect and may misclassify a large number of individuals. The purpose of this prospective study was to evaluate whether the prediction of future cardiovascular events (CVE) can be improved when subclinical imaging atherosclerosis (SCATS) is combined with the FRS in asymptomatic subjects. Methods: Overall, 1038 asymptomatic subjects (413 women, 625 men, mean age 49.1±12.8 years) were assessed for their cardiovascular risk using the FRS. B-mode ultrasonography on carotid and femoral arteries was performed by two investigators to detect atherosclerotic plaques (focal thickening of intima-media > 1.2 mm) and to measure carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT). The severity of SCATS was expressed by an ATS-burden Score (ABS) reflecting the number of the arterial sites with >1 plaques (range 0-4). CVE were defined as fatal or non fatal acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or angioplasty for peripheral artery disease. Results: during a mean follow-up of 4.9±3.1 years, 61 CVE were recorded. Event rates the rate of CVE increased significantly from 2.7% to 39.1% according to the ABS (p<0.001) and from 4% to 24.6% according to the quartiles of C-IMT. Similarly, FRS predicted CVE (p<0.001). When computing the angiographic markers of SCATS in addition of FRS, we observed an improvement of net reclassification rate of 16.6% (p< 0.04) for ABS as compared to 5.5% (p = 0.26) for C-IMT. Conclusion: these results indicate that the detection of subjects requiring more attention to prevent CVE can be significantly improved when using both FRS and SCATS imaging.

Lumbar spine texture enhances 10-year fracture probability assessment.

We found that lumbar spine texture analysis using trabecular bone score (TBS) is a risk factor for MOF and a risk factor for death in a retrospective cohort study from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. INTRODUCTION: FRAX® estimates the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) using clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS), derived from texture in the spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image, is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Our objective was to determine whether TBS provides information on MOF probability beyond that provided by the FRAX variables. METHODS: We included 33,352 women aged 40-100 years (mean 63 years) with baseline DXA measurements of lumbar spine TBS and femoral neck BMD. The association between TBS, the FRAX variables, and the risk of MOF or death was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model. RESULTS: During the mean of 4.7 years, 1,754 women died and 1,872 sustained one or more MOF. For each standard deviation reduction in TBS, there was a 36 % increase in MOF risk (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.30-1.42, p < 0.001) and a 32 % increase in death (HR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.26-1.39, p < 0.001). When adjusted for significant clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD, lumbar spine TBS was still a significant predictor of MOF (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.23) and death (HR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26). Models for estimating MOF probability, accounting for competing mortality, showed that low TBS (10th percentile) increased risk by 1.5-1.6-fold compared with high TBS (90th percentile) across a broad range of ages and femoral neck T-scores. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS is able to predict incident MOF independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD even after accounting for the increased death hazard.

Temporal distribution of dengue virus serotypes in Colombian endemic area and dengue incidence: re-introduction of dengue-3 associated to mild febrile illness and primary infection

We have investigated the temporal distribution of dengue (DEN) virus serotypes in the department (state) of Santander, Colombia, in relation to dengue incidence, infection pattern, and severity of disease. Viral isolation was attended on a total of 1452 acute serum samples collected each week from 1998 to 2004. The infection pattern was evaluated in 596 laboratory-positive dengue cases using an IgG ELISA, and PRNT test. The dengue incidence was documented by the local health authority. Predominance of DEN-1 in 1998 and DEN-3 re-introduction and predominance in 2001-2003 coincided with outbreaks. Predominance of DEN-2 in 2000-2001 coincided with more dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). DEN-4 was isolated in 2000-2001 and 2004 but was not predominant. There was an annual increase of primary dengue infections (from 13.7 to 81.4%) that correlated with frequency of DEN-3 (r = 0.83; P = 0.038). From the total number of primary dengue infections DEN-3 (81.3%) was the most frequent serotype. DHF was more frequent in DEN-2 infected patients than in DEN-3 infected patients: 27.5 vs 10.9% (P < 0.05). DEN-3 viruses belonged to subtype C (restriction site-specific-polymerase chain reaction) like viruses isolated in Sri-Lanka and other countries in the Americas. Our findings show the importance of continuous virological surveillance to identify the risk factors of dengue epidemics and severity.