Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes

Abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants. As such, a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events, moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price. Many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region. This paper is the first to develop a multivariate self-exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the Australian National Electricity Market. The importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined. It is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions, and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity. It is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter-regional linkages are taken into account.

A method for estimating intrinsic noise in electroretinographic (ERG) signals

Purpose To develop a signal processing paradigm for extracting ERG responses to temporal sinusoidal modulation with contrasts ranging from below perceptual threshold to suprathreshold contrasts. To estimate the magnitude of intrinsic noise in ERG signals at different stimulus contrasts. Methods Photopic test stimuli were generated using a 4-primary Maxwellian view optical system. The 4-primary lights were sinusoidally temporally modulated in-phase (36 Hz; 2.5 - 50% Michelson). The stimuli were presented in 1 s epochs separated by a 1 ms blank interval and repeated 160 times (160.16 s duration) during the recording of the continuous flicker ERG from the right eye using DTL fiber electrodes. After artefact rejection, the ERG signal was extracted using Fourier methods in each of the 1 s epochs where a stimulus was presented. The signal processing allows for computation of the intrinsic noise distribution in addition to the signal to noise (SNR) ratio. Results We provide the initial report that the ERG intrinsic noise distribution is independent of stimulus contrast whereas SNR decreases linearly with decreasing contrast until the noise limit at ~2.5%. The 1ms blank intervals between epochs de-correlated the ERG signal at the line frequency (50 Hz) and thus increased the SNR of the averaged response. We confirm that response amplitude increases linearly with stimulus contrast. The phase response shows a shallow positive relationship with stimulus contrast. Conclusions This new technique will enable recording of intrinsic noise in ERG signals above and below perceptual visual threshold and is suitable for measurement of continuous rod and cone ERGs across a range of temporal frequencies, and post-receptoral processing in the primary retinogeniculate pathways at low stimulus contrasts. The intrinsic noise distribution may have application as a biomarker for detecting changes in disease progression or treatment efficacy.

Diagnosing adult Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder: Are late onset and subthreshold ciagnoses valid?

Objective Diagnosing attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in adults is difficult when diagnosticians cannot establish an onset before the DSM-IV criterion of age 7 or if the number of symptoms recalled does not achieve DSM’s diagnosis threshold. Method The authors addressed the validity of DSM-IV’s age-at-onset and symptom threshold criteria by comparing four groups of adults: 127 subjects with full ADHD who met all DSM-IV criteria for childhood-onset ADHD, 79 subjects with late-onset ADHD who met all criteria except the age-at-onset criterion, 41 subjects with subthreshold ADHD who did not meet full symptom criteria for ADHD, and 123 subjects without ADHD who did not meet any criteria. The authors hypothesized that subjects with late-onset and subthreshold ADHD would show patterns of psychiatric comorbidity, functional impairment, and familial transmission similar to those seen in subjects with full ADHD. Result Subjects with late-onset and full ADHD had similar patterns of psychiatric comorbidity, functional impairment, and familial transmission. Most children with late onset of ADHD (83%) were younger than 12. Subthreshold ADHD was milder and showed a different pattern of familial transmission than the other forms of ADHD. Conclusions The data about the clinical features of probands and the pattern of transmission of ADHD among relatives found little evidence for the validity of subthreshold ADHD among such subjects, who reported a lifetime history of some symptoms that never met DSM-IV’s threshold for diagnosis. In contrast, the results suggested that late-onset adult ADHD is valid and that DSM-IV’s age-at-onset criterion is too stringent.

Delay tolerant routing protocols for energy-neutral animal tracking

This paper investigates communication protocols for relaying sensor data from animal tracking applications back to base stations. While Delay Tolerant Networks (DTNs) are well suited to such challenging environments, most existing protocols do not consider the available energy that is particularly important when tracking devices can harvest energy. This limits both the network lifetime and delivery probability in energy-constrained applications to the point when routing performance becomes worse than using no routing at all. Our work shows that substantial improvement in data yields can be achieved through simple yet efficient energy-aware strategies. Conceptually, there is need for balancing the energy spent on sensing, data mulling, and delivery of direct packets to destination. We use empirical traces collected in a flying fox (fruit bat) tracking project and show that simple threshold-based energy-aware strategies yield up to 20% higher delivery rates. Furthermore, these results generalize well for a wide range of operating conditions.

The X-chromosome and susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis

Objective. Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) affects 0.25-1.0% of the population, and its etiology is incompletely understood. Susceptibility to this highly familial disease (λ(s) = 58) is primarily genetically determined. There is a significant sex bias in AS, and there are differences in recurrence risk to the offspring of affected mothers and fathers, suggesting that there may be an X-linked recessive effect. We undertook an X- chromosome linkage study to determine any contribution of the X-chromosome to AS susceptibility. Methods. A linkage study of the X-chromosome using 234 affected sibling pairs was performed to investigate this hypothesis. Results. No linkage of the X-chromosome with susceptibility to AS was found. Model- free multipoint linkage analysis strongly excluded any significant genetic contribution (λ ≥1.5) to AS susceptibility encoded on the X-chromosome (logarithm of odds [LOD] <-2.0). Smaller genetic effects (A ≥1.3) were also found to be unlikely (LOD <-1.0). Conclusion. The sex bias in AS is not explained by X-chromosome-encoded genetic effects. The disease model best explaining the sex bias in occurrence and transmission of AS is a polygenic model with a higher susceptibility threshold in females.

Whole-genome linkage analysis of rheumatoid arthritis susceptibility loci in 252 affected sibling pairs in the United Kingdom

Objective. To undertake a systematic wholegenome screen to identify regions exhibiting genetic linkage to rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. Two hundred fifty-two RA-affected sibling pairs from 182 UK families were genotyped using 365 highly informative microsatellite markers. Microsatellite genotyping was performed using fluorescent polymerase chain reaction primers and semiautomated DNA sequencing technology. Linkage analysis was undertaken using MAPMAKER/SIBS for single-point and multipoint analysis. Results. Significant linkage (maximum logarithm of odds score 4.7 [P = 0.000003] at marker D6S276, 1 cM from HLA-DRB1) was identified around the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region on chromosome 6. Suggestive linkage (P < 7.4 × 10-4) was identified on chromosome 6q by single- and multipoint analysis. Ten other sites of nominal linkage (P < 0.05) were identified on chromosomes 3p, 4q, 7p, 2 regions of 10q, 2 regions of 14q, 16p, 21q, and Xq by single-point analysis and on 3 sites (1q, 14q, and 14q) by multipoint analysis. Conclusion. Linkage to the MHC region was confirmed. Eleven non-HLA regions demonstrated evidence of suggestive or nominal linkage, but none reached the genome-wide threshold for significant linkage (P = 2.2 × 10-5). Results of previous genome screens have suggested that 6 of these regions may be involved in RA susceptibility.

Neuropsychological studies of late onset and subthreshold diagnoses of adult Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

Background Diagnosing attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in adults is difficult when the diagnostician cannot establish an onset prior to the DSM-IV criterion of age 7 or if the number of symptoms recalled does not achieve the DSM-IV threshold for diagnosis. Because neuropsychological deficits are associated with ADHD, we addressed the validity of the DSM-IV age at onset and symptom threshold criteria by using neuropsychological test scores as external validators. Methods We compared four groups of adults: 1) full ADHD subjects met all DSM-IV criteria for childhood-onset ADHD; 2) late-onset ADHD subjects met all criteria except the age at onset criterion; 3) subthreshold ADHD subjects did not meet full symptom criteria; and 4) non-ADHD subjects did not meet any of the above criteria. Results Late-onset and full ADHD subjects had similar patterns of neuropsychological dysfunction. By comparison, subthreshold ADHD subjects showed few neuropsychological differences with non-ADHD subjects. Conclusions Our results showing similar neuropsychological underpinning in subjects with late-onset ADHD suggest that the DSM-IV age at onset criterion may be too stringent. Our data also suggest that ADHD subjects who failed to ever meet the DSM-IV threshold for diagnosis have a milder form of the disorder.

Photo-ionization and residual electron effects in guided streamers

Complementary experiments and numerical modeling reveal the important role of photo-ionization in the guided streamer propagation in helium-air gas mixtures. It is shown that the minimum electron concentration ∼108 cm−3 is required for the regular, repeated propagation of the plasma bullets, while the streamers propagate in the stochastic mode below this threshold. The stochastic-to-regular mode transition is related to the higher background electron density in front of the propagating streamers. These findings help improving control of guided streamer propagation in applications from health care to nanotechnology and improve understanding of generic pre-breakdown phenomena.

Determination of dimethyl sulfide in gas samples by single photon ionization time of flight mass spectrometry

It is difficult to determine sulfur-containing volatile organic compounds in the atmosphere because of their reactivity. Primary off-line techniques may suffer losses of analytes during the transportation from field to laboratory and sample preparation. In this study, a novel method was developed to directly measure dimethyl sulfide at parts-per-billion concentration levels in the atmosphere using vacuum ultraviolet single photon ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry. This technique offers continuous sampling at a response rate of one measurement per second, or cumulative measurements over longer time periods. Laboratory prepared samples of different concentrations of dimethyl sulfide in pure nitrogen gas were analyzed at several sampling frequencies. Good precision was achieved using sampling periods of at least 60 seconds with a relative standard deviation of less than 25%. The detection limit for dimethyl sulfide was below the 3 ppb olfactory threshold. These results demonstrate that single photon ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry is a valuable tool for rapid, real-time measurements of sulfur-containing organic compounds in the air.

Impact of diurnal temperature range on human health: a systematic review

Increasing epidemiological studies have shown that a rapid temperature change within 1 day is an independent risk factor for human health. This paper aimed to systematically review the epidemiological evidence on the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and human health and to propose future research directions. A literature search was conducted in October 2013 using the databases including PubMed, ScienceDirect, and EBSCO. Empirical studies regarding the relationship between DTR and mortality and morbidity were included. Twenty-five relevant studies were identified, among which, 11 investigated the relationship between DTR and mortality and 14 examined the impact of DTR on morbidity. The majority of existing studies reported that DTR was significantly associated with mortality and morbidity, particularly for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Notably, compared with adults, the elderly and children were more vulnerable to DTR effects. However, there were some inconsistencies regarding the susceptible groups, lag time, and threshold of DTR. The impact of DTR on human health may be confounded or modified by season, socioeconomic, and educational status. Further research is needed to further confirm the adverse effects of DTR in different geographical locations; examine the effects of DTR on the health of children aged one or under; explore extreme DTR effects on human health; analyze the difference of DTR effects on human health in different locations and the modified effects of potential confounding factors; and develop detailed preventive measures against large DTR, particularly for susceptible groups

The effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality: An epidemiologic study in four climatic zones in China

Background Little evidence is available about the association between temperature and cerebrovascular mortality in China. This study aims to examine the effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in different climatic zones in China. Method We obtained daily data on weather conditions, air pollution and cerebrovascular deaths from five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou) in China during 2004-2008. We examined city-specific associations between ambient temperature and the cerebrovascular mortality, while adjusting for season, long-term trends, day of the week, relative humidity and air pollution. We examined cold effects using a 1°C decrease in temperature below a city-specific threshold, and hot effects using a 1°C increase in temperature above a city-specific threshold. We used a meta-analysis to summarize the cold and hot effects across the five cities. Results Beijing and Tianjin (with low mean temperature) had lower thresholds than Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou (with high mean temperature). In Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou cold effects were delayed, while in Shanghai there was no or short induction. Hot effects were acute in all five cities. The cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. The hot effects were followed by mortality displacement. The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C decrease in temperature below thresholds (cold effect) was 1.037 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020, 1.053). The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C increase in temperature above thresholds (hot effect) was 1.014 (95% CI: 0.979, 1.050). Conclusion Cold temperatures are significantly associated with cerebrovascular mortality in China, while hot effect is not significant. People in colder climate cities were sensitive to hot temperatures, while people in warmer climate cities were vulnerable to cold temperature.

The effects of high temperature on cardiovascular admissions in the most populous tropical city in Vietnam

This study examined the short-term effects of temperature on cardiovascular hospital admissions (CHA) in the largest tropical city in Southern Vietnam. We applied Poisson time-series regression models with Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) to examine the temperature-CHA association while adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends, day of the week, holidays, and humidity. The threshold temperature and added effects of heat waves were also evaluated. The exposure-response curve of temperature-CHA reveals a J-shape relationship with a threshold temperature of 29.6 °C. The delayed effects temperature-CHA lasted for a week (0–5 days). The overall risk of CHA increased 12.9% (RR, 1.129; 95%CI, 0.972–1.311) during heatwave events, which were defined as temperature ≥ the 99th percentile for ≥2 consecutive days. The modification roles of gender and age were inconsistent and non-significant in this study. An additional prevention program that reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease in relation to high temperatures should be developed.

Genome-wide association study to identify genetic determinants of severe asthma

Background: The genetic basis for developing asthma has been extensively studied. However, association studies to date have mostly focused on mild to moderate disease and genetic risk factors for severe asthma remain unclear. Objective: To identify common genetic variants affecting susceptibility to severe asthma. Methods: A genome-wide association study was undertaken in 933 European ancestry individuals with severe asthma based on Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) criteria 3 or above and 3346 clean controls. After standard quality control measures, the association of 480 889 genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was tested. To improve the resolution of the association signals identified, non-genotyped SNPs were imputed in these regions using a dense reference panel of SNP genotypes from the 1000 Genomes Project. Then replication of SNPs of interest was undertaken in a further 231 cases and 1345 controls and a meta-analysis was performed to combine the results across studies. Results: An association was confirmed in subjects with severe asthma of loci previously identified for association with mild to moderate asthma. The strongest evidence was seen for the ORMDL3/GSDMB locus on chromosome 17q12-21 (rs4794820, p=1.03×10 (-8)following meta-analysis) meeting genome-wide significance. Strong evidence was also found for the IL1RL1/IL18R1 locus on 2q12 (rs9807989, p=5.59×10 (-8) following meta-analysis) just below this threshold. No novel loci for susceptibility to severe asthma met strict criteria for genome-wide significance. Conclusions: The largest genome-wide association study of severe asthma to date was carried out and strong evidence found for the association of two previously identified asthma susceptibility loci in patients with severe disease. A number of novel regions with suggestive evidence were also identified warranting further study.

X-Ray Studies On The Bilayer Structure Of Trypsin-Treated Rat-Brain Myelin

Trypsin-treated rat brain myelin was subjected to biochemical and X-ray studies. Untreated myelin gave rise to a pattern of three rings with a fundamental repeat period of 155 Angstrom consisting of two bilayers per repeat period, whereas myelin treated with trypsin showed a fundamental repeat period of 75 Angstrom with one bilayer per repeat period. The integrated raw intensity of the h=4 reflection with respect to the h=2 reflection is 0.38 for untreated myelin. The corresponding value reduced to 0.23, 0.18, 0.17 for myelin treated with 5, 10, 40 units of trypsin per mg of myelin, respectively, for 30 min at 30 degrees C. The decrease in relative raw intensity of the higher-order reflection relative to the lower-order reflection is suggestive of a disordering of the phosphate groups upon trypsin treatment or an increased mosaicity of the membrane or a combination of both these effects, However, trypsin treatment does not lead to a complete breakdown of the membrane, The integrated intensity of the h=1 reflection, though weak, is above the measurable threshold for untreated myelin, whereas the corresponding intensity is below the measurable threshold for trypsin-treated myelin, indicating a possible asymmetric to symmetric transition of the myelin bilayer structure about its centre after trypsin treatment.

Damage assessment of basaltic rock mass due to repeated blasting in a railway tunnelling project - A case study

The demand for tunnelling and underground space creation is rapidly growing due to the requirement of civil infrastructure projects and urbanisation. Blasting remains the most inexpensive method of underground excavations in hard rock. Unfortunately, there are no specific safety guidelines available for the blasted tunnels with regards to the threshold limits of vibrations caused by repeated blasting activity in the close proximity. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive study conducted to find out the effect of repeated blast loading on the damage experienced by jointed basaltic rock mass during tunnelling works. Conducting of multiple rounds of blasts for various civil excavations in a railway tunnel imparted repeated loading on rock mass of sidewall and roof of the tunnel. The blast induced damage was assessed by using vibration attenuation equations of charge weight scaling law and measured by borehole extensometers and borehole camera. Ground vibrations of each blasting round were also monitored by triaxial geophones installed near the borehole extensometers. The peak particle velocity (V-max) observations and plastic deformations from borehole extensometers were used to develop a site specific damage model. The study reveals that repeated dynamic loading imparted on the exposed tunnel from subsequent blasts, in the vicinity, resulted in rock mass damage at lesser vibration levels than the critical peak particle velocity (V-cr). It was found that, the repeated blast loading resulted in the near-field damage due to high frequency waves and far-field damage due to low frequency waves. The far field damage, after 45-50 occurrences of blast loading, was up to 55% of the near-field damage in basaltic rock mass. The findings of the study clearly indicate that the phenomena of repeated blasting with respect to number of cycles of loading should be taken into consideration for proper assessment of blast induced damage in underground excavations.