Análise estatística da distribuição de Poisson

The general properties of POISSON distributions and their relations to the binomial distribuitions are discussed. Two methods of statistical analysis are dealt with in detail: X2-test. In order to carry out the X2-test, the mean frequency and the theoretical frequencies for all classes are calculated. Than the observed and the calculated frequencies are compared, using the well nown formula: f(obs) - f(esp) 2; i(esp). When the expected frequencies are small, one must not forget that the value of X2 may only be calculated, if the expected frequencies are biger than 5. If smaller values should occur, the frequencies of neighboroughing classes must ge pooled. As a second test reintroduced by BRIEGER, consists in comparing the observed and expected error standard of the series. The observed error is calculated by the general formula: δ + Σ f . VK n-1 where n represents the number of cases. The theoretical error of a POISSON series with mean frequency m is always ± Vm. These two values may be compared either by dividing the observed by the theoretical error and using BRIEGER's tables for # or by dividing the respective variances and using SNEDECOR's tables for F. The degree of freedom for the observed error is one less the number of cases studied, and that of the theoretical error is always infinite. In carrying out these tests, one important point must never be overlloked. The values for the first class, even if no concrete cases of the type were observed, must always be zero, an dthe value of the subsequent classes must be 1, 2, 3, etc.. This is easily seen in some of the classical experiments. For instance in BORKEWITZ example of accidents in Prussian armee corps, the classes are: no, one, two, etc., accidents. When counting the frequency of bacteria, these values are: no, one, two, etc., bacteria or cultures of bacteria. Ins studies of plant diseases equally the frequencies are : no, one, two, etc., plants deseased. Howewer more complicated cases may occur. For instance, when analising the degree of polyembriony, frequently the case of "no polyembryony" corresponds to the occurrence of one embryo per each seed. Thus the classes are not: no, one, etc., embryo per seed, but they are: no additional embryo, one additional embryo, etc., per seed with at least one embryo. Another interestin case was found by BRIEGER in genetic studies on the number os rows in maize. Here the minimum number is of course not: no rows, but: no additional beyond eight rows. The next class is not: nine rows, but: 10 rows, since the row number varies always in pairs of rows. Thus the value of successive classes are: no additional pair of rows beyond 8, one additional pair (or 10 rows), two additional pairs (or 12 rows) etc.. The application of the methods is finally shown on the hand of three examples : the number of seeds per fruit in the oranges M Natal" and "Coco" and in "Calamondin". As shown in the text and the tables, the agreement with a POISSON series is very satisfactory in the first two cases. In the third case BRIEGER's error test indicated a significant reduction of variability, and the X2 test showed that there were two many fruits with 4 or 5 seeds and too few with more or with less seeds. Howewer the fact that no fruit was found without seed, may be taken to indicate that in Calamondin fruits are not fully parthenocarpic and may develop only with one seed at the least. Thus a new analysis was carried out, on another class basis. As value for the first class the following value was accepted: no additional seed beyond the indispensable minimum number of one seed, and for the later classes the values were: one, two, etc., additional seeds. Using this new basis for all calculations, a complete agreement of the observed and expected frequencies, of the correspondig POISSON series was obtained, thus proving that our hypothesis of the impossibility of obtaining fruits without any seed was correct for Calamondin while the other two oranges were completely parthenocarpic and fruits without seeds did occur.

Statistical pattern recognition for audio-forensics : empirical investigations on the application scenarios audio steganalysis and microphone forensics

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2013

Konzeption einer Benutzerschnittstelle sowie Realisierung von Usability– und UI-Tests im Rahmen der prototypischen Entwicklung einer Android-App für eine Crowdtesting-Plattform

[s.c.]

Statistical model identification : dynamical processes and large-scale networks in systems biology

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2014

Statistical model identification : dynamical processes and large-scale networks in systems biology

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2014

Statistical analysis of stress and deformation state in polycrystalline aggregates with a large number of grains

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Maschinenbau, Diss., 2015

Investigation of the classification of the rodent genus Eumys from the Middle Oligocene of the Big Badlands of South Dakota using multivariate statistical analysis / Sue Vilhauer Rosser --.

v.39:no.3(1978)

Biometric and statistical investigations on the cnidoma of the genus Hydra (Cnidaria, Hydrozoa)

This paper deals about the nematocysts like a source of biometric information for comparison between the species Hydra vulgaris Pallas, 1766, Hydra vulgaris pedunculata Deserti et al., 2011 and Hydra pseudoligactis (Hyman, 1931). This biometric tool lets us carry out statistical comparisons and adding these results to the identification of specimens from different classificatory groups. In this particular study, we obtained significant differences between species, individuals of each species and nematocysts type when compared the biometry of its nematocysts. Another result was the variation in of particular nematocysts, like atrichous isorhiza and holotrichous isorhiza for the species H. vulgaris in relation to the column size.

Hausman tests for inefficient estimators: application to demand for health care service (revised)

The Hausman (1978) test is based on the vector of differences of two estimators. It is usually assumed that one of the estimators is fully efficient, since this simplifies calculation of the test statistic. However, this assumption limits the applicability of the test, since widely used estimators such as the generalized method of moments (GMM) or quasi maximum likelihood (QML) are often not fully efficient. This paper shows that the test may easily be implemented, using well-known methods, when neither estimator is efficient. To illustrate, we present both simulation results as well as empirical results for utilization of health care services.

Thermal tests on the LISA pathfinder engineering model

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at Albert Einstein Institut in Germany, from April to July 2006.

Indirect immunofluorescence(IgG and IgM) tests for toxoplasmosis on 203 persons, with no symptomatology suggesting the disease, located in the city of Rio de Janeiro. Serological follow up one to two years later.

Clinical and serological follow up examinations were performed on 203 persons, from three to twenty years of age, from the otolaryngology department of a hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, with no symptomatology suggesting toxoplasmosis, but suffering from chronic tonsillitis. According to results obtained during the first indirect immunofluorescence tests, the patients were divided into following groups: Group I (non-reactive IgG and IgM), 98 persons (48.3%); Group II (1:16 ≤ IgG ≤ 1:256 and non-reactive IgM), 74 persons (36.5%); Group III (IgM ≥ 1:1024 and non-reactive IgM), 18 persons (8.8%), and Group IV (IgG and IgM reactive), 13 persons (6.4%). One to two years later, 131 (64.5%) of the 203 persons were reexamined by a second indirect immunofluorescence test. In the case of 66 persons (Group I) whose serum was non-reactive in the IgG and IgM classes during the first indirect immunofluorescence test, serum conversion was observed in aproximately 21.2%. in 65 individuals (49.6%), (Groups II, III and IV),with reactive serum in the IgG classes during the first indirect immunofluorescence test, the second reaction showed an increase in titres in 20% of the cases, a decrease in 67.7% of the cases, or no alterations in 12.3 of the cases. In the IgM class, all 131 sera were non-reactive at 116 dilution the second immunofluorescence test, including the 13 cases that had previously been reactive in the immunoglobulin class, Symptomatology suggesting toxoplasmosis was only observed in one case during the second testing, this patient's principal physical sign being hypertrophied lymph nodes. during this period, the Toxoplasma antibodies showed titres of IgG 1:32000 and non-reactive IgM, whilst one year previously, during the first test, these titres were IgG 1:1024 and IgM 1:64. Differences in the age, sex and skin coloring of patients were not statistically significant as regards alterations in the indirect immunofluorescence test titres.

Insertion dans les soins après une première hospitalisation dans un secteur pour psychose [Linkage to care after first hospitalisation for psychosis]

BACKGROUND: First hospitalisation for a psychotic episode causes intense distress to patients and families, but offers an opportunity to make a diagnosis and start treatment. However, linkage to outpatient psychiatric care remains a notoriously difficult step for young psychotic patients, who frequently interrupt treatment after hospitalisation. Persistence of symptoms, and untreated psychosis may therefore remain a problem despite hospitalisation and proper diagnosis. With persisting psychotic symptoms, numerous complications may arise: breakdown in relationships, loss of family and social support, loss of employment or study interruption, denial of disease, depression, suicide, substance abuse and violence. Understanding mechanisms that might promote linkage to outpatient psychiatric care is therefore a critical issue, especially in early intervention in psychotic disorders. OBJECTIVE: To study which factors hinder or promote linkage of young psychotic patients to outpatient psychiatric care after a first hospitalisation, in the absence of a vertically integrated program for early psychosis. Method. File audit study of all patients aged 18 to 30 who were admitted for the first time to the psychiatric University Hospital of Lausanne in the year 2000. For statistical analysis, chi2 tests were used for categorical variables and t-test for dimensional variables; p<0.05 was considered as statistically significant. RESULTS: 230 patients aged 18 to 30 were admitted to the Lausanne University psychiatric hospital for the first time during the year 2000, 52 of them with a diagnosis of psychosis (23%). Patients with psychosis were mostly male (83%) when compared with non-psychosis patients (49%). Furthermore, they had (1) 10 days longer mean duration of stay (24 vs 14 days), (2) a higher rate of compulsory admissions (53% vs 22%) and (3) were more often hospitalised by a psychiatrist rather than by a general practitioner (83% vs 53%). Other socio-demographic and clinical features at admission were similar in the two groups. Among the 52 psychotic patients, 10 did not stay in the catchment area for subsequent treatment. Among the 42 psychotic patients who remained in the catchment area after discharge, 20 (48%) did not attend the scheduled or rescheduled outpatient appointment. None of the socio demographic characteristics were associated with attendance to outpatient appointments. On the other hand, voluntary admission and suicidal ideation before admission were significantly related to attending the initial appointment. Moreover, some elements of treatment seemed to be associated with higher likelihood to attend outpatient treatment: (1) provision of information to the patient regarding diagnosis, (2) discussion about the treatment plan between in- and outpatient staff, (3) involvement of outpatient team during hospitalisation, and (4) elaboration of concrete strategies to face basic needs, organise daily activities or education and reach for help in case of need. CONCLUSION: As in other studies, half of the patients admitted for a first psychotic episode failed to link to outpatient psychiatric care. Our study suggests that treatment rather than patient's characteristics play a critical role in this phenomenon. Development of a partnership and involvement of patients in the decision process, provision of good information regarding the illness, clear definition of the treatment plan, development of concrete strategies to cope with the illness and its potential complications, and involvement of the outpatient treating team already during hospitalisation, all came out as critical strategies to facilitate adherence to outpatient care. While the current rate of disengagement after admission is highly concerning, our finding are encouraging since they constitute strategies that can easily be implemented. An open approach to psychosis, the development of partnership with patients and a better coordination between inpatient and outpatient teams should therefore be among the targets of early intervention programs. These observations might help setting up priorities when conceptualising new programs and facilitate the implementation of services that facilitate engagement of patients in treatment during the critical initial phase of psychotic disorders.

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfillment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.