Poverty in Slovenia: A Conseqence of Economic Transition

Slovenia is considered to be one of the most successful Central and Eastern European countries undergoing the process of transition. It has a high GDP per capita (the highest in the Visegrad group) amounting to about 7200 US dollars (at the exchange rates pertaining during Ms. Stropnik's research). In 1994, a low rate of inflation, a low level of public debt and almost balanced public finances, were all positive elements. However, there is a darker side, for instance the dramatic increase in unemployment and (somewhat less dramatic) fall in production during the transition period. This analysis aimed to provide insights into what is actually happening at the household level, since households are the ultimate bearers of macroeconomic and social change. The final output totalled 166 pages in English and Slovenian, available also on disc. The income concept used by Ms. Stropnik is that of the disposable (monetary) household income, i.e. the cash income of all household members - including social security transfers and family benefits, and the net sum of taxes and social security contributions - plus the equivalent of domestic production, used in the household. Non-monetary income sources, such as household own production, benefits in kind, subsidies for goods and services, and fringe benefits, were not taken into account. The concept of relative and objective poverty was followed. Poverty means having less than others in society, it is a state of relative deprivation. Objective aspects of the situation, e.g. command over resources (i.e. the household income) and the relative position of the household in the income distribution, determine who is poor and who is not. Changes in household composition - an increase in the number of pensioners, unemployed and self-employed, concomitant with a large decrease in the number of employees - obviously played a part in the changing structure of household income sources during this period. The overall decrease in the share of wages and salaries from primary employment in 1993 is to be observed in all income deciles. On the other hand, the importance of salaries gained from secondary employment has increased in all deciles. The lower seven deciles experienced a sharp rise in the share of social benefits in the period 1988-1993, mostly because of the increase in the number of persons entitled to claim unemployment benefits. In Slovenia, income inequality has increased considerably during the 1988-1993 period. To make matters worse, the large increase in income inequality occurred in a period of falling real incomes. In 1983 the bottom decile disposed of 3.8 percent and the top decile disposed of 23.4 percent of total monetary income in Slovenia, whereas by 1993 the same statistics revealed 3.1 percent and 18.9 percent respectively. Unemployment greatly increases the risk of living in poverty. In 1993, 35 per cent of all unemployed persons in Slovenia were living in the lowest income quintile. Ms. Stropnik found certain features that were specific to Slovenia and not shared by most countries in transition. For example, the relative income position of pensioners has improved. Retirement did not increase the risk of poverty in 1993 as much as it did in 1983 and 1988. Also, it appears that children have not been particularly hard-hit by the transition upheavals. The incidence of poverty amongst children has not increased in the period 1983-1993. Children were also fairly evenly distributed across income quintiles. In 1983, 11.8 percent of households with children aged 18 or less were poor. In 1993, this figure was 8.4 per cent. On the other hand, poor households with children were, in comparison with other households of the same type, poorer in 1993 than in 1983. Ms. Stropnik also analysed the impact of social transfers. Her conclusion was that the level of social transfers prevented them from being successful in alleviating poverty. Family policy transfers (child allowances, child tax allowances, subsidised child care) did, however, contribute to the lowering of income inequality between families with and without children, and amongst families with different numbers of children. Ms. Stropnik is determined that the results of her research be used in the creation of social policy aimed at helping the poor. She quotes Piachaud approvingly: "If the term 'poverty' carries with it the implication and moral imperative that something should be done about it, then the study of poverty is only ultimately justifiable if it influences individual and social attitudes and actions."

Effect of donor-specific transfusions on the outcome of renal allografts in the cyclosporine era

Despite the introduction of new immunosuppressive agents, a steady decline of functioning renal allografts after living donation is observed. Thus nonpharmacological strategies to prevent graft loss have to be reconsidered, including donor-specific transfusions (DST). We introduced a cyclosporine-based DST protocol for renal allograft recipients from living-related/unrelated donation. From 1993 to 2003, 200 ml of whole blood, or the respective mononuclear cells from the potential living donor were administered twice to all of our 61 recipient candidates. The transplanted subjects were compared with three groups of patients without DST from the Collaborative Transplant Study (Heidelberg, Germany) during a 6-year period. Six patients were sensitized without delay for a subsequent cadaveric kidney. DST patients had less often treatment for rejection and graft survival was superior compared with subjects from the other Swiss transplant centers (n = 513) or from Western Europe (n = 7024). To diminish the probability that superior results reflect patient selection rather than effects of DST, a 'matched-pair' analysis controlling for relevant factors of transplant outcome was performed. Again, this analysis indicated that recipients with DST had better outcome. Thus, our observation suggests that DST improve the outcome of living kidney transplants even when modern immunosuppressive drugs are prescribed.

Early and late urodynamic assessment of ileal orthotopic bladder substitutes combined with an afferent tubular segment

PURPOSE: Limited information is available concerning changes in the urodynamic characteristics of orthotopic bladder substitutes with time. Therefore, we compared early and late urodynamic results in patients with an ileal orthotopic bladder substitute combined with an afferent tubular segment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Of 139 patients surviving at least 5 years after cystoprostatectomy and ileal orthotopic bladder substitution with an afferent tubular segment 119 underwent urodynamic assessment, including 66 at a median of 9 months (early) and 77 at a median of 62 months (late). Of these patients 24 were assessed at each time point. Simultaneously all patients were asked to complete a bladder diary and questionnaire regarding continence for at least 3 days in the week preceding the urodynamic study. RESULTS: Urodynamic parameters were comparable in patients who were evaluated early and late postoperatively. In addition, median values at early and late urodynamic evaluation in the 24 patients with the 2 examinations showed no statistically significant differences for volume at first desire to void (300 vs 333 ml, p = 0.85), pressure at first desire to void (12 vs 13 cm H2O, p = 0.57), maximum cystometric capacity (450 vs 453 ml, p = 0.84), end filling pressure (19 vs 20 cm H2O, p = 0.17), reservoir compliance (25 vs 28 ml/cm H2O, p = 0.58) or post-void residual urine volume (5 vs 15 ml, p = 0.27). CONCLUSIONS: Urodynamic results after 5 years of living with an ileal orthotopic bladder substitute with an afferent tubular segment show grossly unchanged urodynamic characteristics. Patients maintain a reservoir capacity and micturition pattern consistent with a normal life-style. Reservoir pressure remained low, thereby protecting and preserving upper tract function. To achieve these results patients must be regularly followed, and the causes of bacteriuria, increased post-void residual urine and bladder outlet obstruction must be recognized and dealt with accordingly.

A Cox Model for Biostatistics of the Future

Professor Sir David R. Cox (DRC) is widely acknowledged as among the most important scientists of the second half of the twentieth century. He inherited the mantle of statistical science from Pearson and Fisher, advanced their ideas, and translated statistical theory into practice so as to forever change the application of statistics in many fields, but especially biology and medicine. The logistic and proportional hazards models he substantially developed, are arguably among the most influential biostatistical methods in current practice. This paper looks forward over the period from DRC's 80th to 90th birthdays, to speculate about the future of biostatistics, drawing lessons from DRC's contributions along the way. We consider "Cox's model" of biostatistics, an approach to statistical science that: formulates scientific questions or quantities in terms of parameters gamma in probability models f(y; gamma) that represent in a parsimonious fashion, the underlying scientific mechanisms (Cox, 1997); partition the parameters gamma = theta, eta into a subset of interest theta and other "nuisance parameters" eta necessary to complete the probability distribution (Cox and Hinkley, 1974); develops methods of inference about the scientific quantities that depend as little as possible upon the nuisance parameters (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1989); and thinks critically about the appropriate conditional distribution on which to base infrences. We briefly review exciting biomedical and public health challenges that are capable of driving statistical developments in the next decade. We discuss the statistical models and model-based inferences central to the CM approach, contrasting them with computationally-intensive strategies for prediction and inference advocated by Breiman and others (e.g. Breiman, 2001) and to more traditional design-based methods of inference (Fisher, 1935). We discuss the hierarchical (multi-level) model as an example of the future challanges and opportunities for model-based inference. We then consider the role of conditional inference, a second key element of the CM. Recent examples from genetics are used to illustrate these ideas. Finally, the paper examines causal inference and statistical computing, two other topics we believe will be central to biostatistics research and practice in the coming decade. Throughout the paper, we attempt to indicate how DRC's work and the "Cox Model" have set a standard of excellence to which all can aspire in the future.

Patterns of regional brain hypometabolism associated with knowledge of semantic features and categories in Alzheimer's disease

The study of semantic memory in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) has raised important questions about the representation of conceptual knowledge in the human brain. It is still unknown whether semantic memory impairments are caused by localized damage to specialized regions or by diffuse damage to distributed representations within nonspecialized brain areas. To our knowledge, there have been no direct correlations of neuroimaging of in vivo brain function in AD with performance on tasks differentially addressing visual and functional knowledge of living and nonliving concepts. We used a semantic verification task and resting 18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in a group of mild to moderate AD patients to investigate this issue. The four task conditions required semantic knowledge of (1) visual, (2) functional properties of living objects, and (3) visual or (4) functional properties of nonliving objects. Visual property verification of living objects was significantly correlated with left posterior fusiform gyrus metabolism (Brodmann's area [BA] 37/19). Effects of visual and functional property verification for non-living objects largely overlapped in the left anterior temporal (BA 38/20) and bilateral premotor areas (BA 6), with the visual condition extending more into left lateral precentral areas. There were no associations with functional property verification for living concepts. Our results provide strong support for anatomically separable representations of living and nonliving concepts, as well as visual feature knowledge of living objects, and against distributed accounts of semantic memory that view visual and functional features of living and nonliving objects as distributed across a common set of brain areas.