Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. METHODS: The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. RESULTS: In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)). CONCLUSIONS: The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

Passive knee-extension test to measure hamstring tightness: influence of gravity correction

CONTEXT: A passive knee-extension test has been shown to be a reliable method of assessing hamstring tightness, but this method does not take into account the potential effect of gravity on the tested leg. OBJECTIVE: To compare an original passive knee-extension test with 2 adapted methods including gravity's effect on the lower leg. DESIGN: Repeated measures. SETTING: Laboratory. PARTICIPANTS: 20 young track and field athletes (16.6 ± 1.6 y, 177.6 ± 9.2 cm, 75.9 ± 24.8 kg). INTERVENTION: Each subject was tested in a randomized order with 3 different methods: In the original one (M1), passive knee angle was measured with a standard force of 68.7 N (7 kg) applied proximal to the lateral malleolus. The second (M2) and third (M3) methods took into account the relative lower-leg weight (measured respectively by handheld dynamometer and anthropometrical table) to individualize the force applied to assess passive knee angle. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Passive knee angles measured with video-analysis software. RESULTS: No difference in mean individualized applied force was found between M2 and M3, so the authors assessed passive knee angle only with M2. The mean knee angle was different between M1 and M2 (68.8 ± 12.4 vs 73.1 ± 10.6, P < .001). Knee angles in M1 and M2 were correlated (r = .93, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in knee angle were found between the original passive knee-extension test and a method with gravity correction. M2 is an improved version of the original method (M1) since it minimizes the effect of gravity. Therefore, we recommend using it rather than M1.

Does Direct Democracy Matters for Political Parties : An Empirical Test in the Swiss Cantons

According to most political scientists and commentators, direct democracy seems to weaken political parties. Our empirical analysis in the 26 Swiss cantons shows that this thesis in its general form cannot be maintained. Political parties in cantons with extensive use of referendums and initiatives are not in all respects weaker than parties in cantons with little use of direct democratic means of participation. On the contrary, direct democracy goes together with more professional and formalized party organizations. Use of direct democracy is associated with more fragmented and volatile party systems, and with greater support for small parties, but causal interpretations of these relationships are difficult.

Inferring transport characteristics in a fractured rock aquifer by combining single-hole ground-penetrating radar reflection monitoring and tracer test data

Investigations of solute transport in fractured rock aquifers often rely on tracer test data acquired at a limited number of observation points. Such data do not, by themselves, allow detailed assessments of the spreading of the injected tracer plume. To better understand the transport behavior in a granitic aquifer, we combine tracer test data with single-hole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) reflection monitoring data. Five successful tracer tests were performed under various experimental conditions between two boreholes 6 m apart. For each experiment, saline tracer was injected into a previously identified packed-off transmissive fracture while repeatedly acquiring single-hole GPR reflection profiles together with electrical conductivity logs in the pumping borehole. By analyzing depth-migrated GPR difference images together with tracer breakthrough curves and associated simplified flow and transport modeling, we estimate (1) the number, the connectivity, and the geometry of fractures that contribute to tracer transport, (2) the velocity and the mass of tracer that was carried along each flow path, and (3) the effective transport parameters of the identified flow paths. We find a qualitative agreement when comparing the time evolution of GPR reflectivity strengths at strategic locations in the formation with those arising from simulated transport. The discrepancies are on the same order as those between observed and simulated breakthrough curves at the outflow locations. The rather subtle and repeatable GPR signals provide useful and complementary information to tracer test data acquired at the outflow locations and may help us to characterize transport phenomena in fractured rock aquifers.

Effects of zoledronate versus placebo on spine bone mineral density and microarchitecture assessed by the trabecular bone score in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: A three-year study.

The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an index of bone microarchitectural texture calculated from anteroposterior dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans of the lumbar spine (LS) that predicts fracture risk, independent of bone mineral density (BMD). The aim of this study was to compare the effects of yearly intravenous zoledronate (ZOL) versus placebo (PLB) on LS BMD and TBS in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. Changes in TBS were assessed in the subset of 107 patients recruited at the Department of Osteoporosis of the University Hospital of Berne, Switzerland, who were included in the HORIZON trial. All subjects received adequate calcium and vitamin D3. In these patients randomly assigned to either ZOL (n = 54) or PLB (n = 53) for 3 years, BMD was measured by DXA and TBS assessed by TBS iNsight (v1.9) at baseline and 6, 12, 24, and 36 months after treatment initiation. Baseline characteristics (mean ± SD) were similar between groups in terms of age, 76.8 ± 5.0 years; body mass index (BMI), 24.5 ± 3.6 kg/m(2) ; TBS, 1.178 ± 0.1 but for LS T-score (ZOL-2.9 ± 1.5 versus PLB-2.1 ± 1.5). Changes in LS BMD were significantly greater with ZOL than with PLB at all time points (p < 0.0001 for all), reaching +9.58% versus +1.38% at month 36. Change in TBS was significantly greater with ZOL than with PLB as of month 24, reaching +1.41 versus-0.49% at month 36; p = 0.031, respectively. LS BMD and TBS were weakly correlated (r = 0.20) and there were no correlations between changes in BMD and TBS from baseline at any visit. In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, once-yearly intravenous ZOL therapy significantly increased LS BMD relative to PLB over 3 years and TBS as of 2 years. © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

La consultation pour le test sérologique de dépistage VIH : enjeux pour le couple et pour le médecin

La pratique du test au centre de dépistage anonyme VIH de la Policlinique médicale universitaire de Lausanne semble indiquer que de plus en plus de personnes demandent à être testées, souvent au moment inaugural de la constitution de la vie du couple. L'indication au test de dépistage devrait être le résultat d'une négociation entre le patient et son médecin. Ce dernier est en outre confronté à la complexité des enjeux sociétaux et éthiques que le test représente. Il s'agit d'une tâche difficile, d'autant plus que la requête d'un test n'implique pas le seul devenir du sujet, mais aussi, dans la dimension sexuelle, le devenir de la personne qu'il rencontre. L'avènement du Sida a modifié la vie du couple en rendant la sexualité plus problématique et en donnant un caractère impératif l'exigence de négociation entre les partenaires du couple. La pratique de la prévention révèle aussi comment le Sida met en jeu la responsabilité que les médecins ont de négocier avec leurs patients, à l'instar de ce que ces derniers devraient faire avec leur partenaire dans un but de protection.

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and copeptin for predicting survival in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Ventilator-associated pneumonia remains the most common nosocomial infection in the critically ill and contributes to significant morbidity. Eventual decisions regarding withdrawal or maximal therapy are demanding and rely on physicians' experience. Additional objective tools for risk assessment may improve medical judgement. Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, reflecting the individual degree of organ dysfunction, might qualify for survival prediction in ventilator-associated pneumonia. We investigated the predictive value of the SOFA score and copeptin in ventilator-associated pneumonia. METHODS: One hundred one patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia were prospectively assessed. Death within 28 days after ventilator-associated pneumonia onset was the primary end point. RESULTS: The SOFA score and the copeptin levels at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset were significantly elevated in nonsurvivors (P = .002 and P = .017, respectively). Both markers had different time courses in survivors and nonsurvivors (P < .001 and P = .006). Mean SOFA (average SOFA of 10 days after VAP onset) was superior in predicting 28-day survival as compared with SOFA and copeptin at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset (area under the curve, 0.90 vs 0.73 and 0.67, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of serial-measured SOFA significantly exceeds those of single SOFA and copeptin measurements. Serial SOFA scores accurately predict outcome in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

Calibration of high-resolution geophysical data with tracer test measurements to improve hydrological predictions

Relationships between porosity and hydraulic conductivity tend to be strongly scale- and site-dependent and are thus very difficult to establish. As a result, hydraulic conductivity distributions inferred from geophysically derived porosity models must be calibrated using some measurement of aquifer response. This type of calibration is potentially very valuable as it may allow for transport predictions within the considered hydrological unit at locations where only geophysical measurements are available, thus reducing the number of well tests required and thereby the costs of management and remediation. Here, we explore this concept through a series of numerical experiments. Considering the case of porosity characterization in saturated heterogeneous aquifers using crosshole ground-penetrating radar and borehole porosity log data, we use tracer test measurements to calibrate a relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity that allows the best prediction of the observed hydrological behavior. To examine the validity and effectiveness of the obtained relationship, we examine its performance at alternate locations not used in the calibration procedure. Our results indicate that this methodology allows us to obtain remarkably reliable hydrological predictions throughout the considered hydrological unit based on the geophysical data only. This was also found to be the case when significant uncertainty was considered in the underlying relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity.

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Identification of psychological dysfunctions and eating disorders in obese women seeking weight loss: cross-sectional study.

Objective. The aim of this study is to analyse associations between eating behaviour and psychological dysfunctions in treatment-seeking obese patients and identify parameters for the development of diagnostic tools with regard to eating and psychological disorders. Design and Methods. Cross-sectional data were analysed from 138 obese women. Bulimic Investigatory Test of Edinburgh and Eating Disorder Inventory-2 assessed eating behaviours. Beck Depression Inventory II, Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, form Y, Rathus Assertiveness Schedule, and Marks and Mathews Fear Questionnaire assessed psychological profile. Results. 61% of patients showed moderate or major depressive symptoms and 77% showed symptoms of anxiety. Half of the participants presented with a low degree of assertiveness. No correlation was found between psychological profile and age or anthropometric measurements. The prevalence and severity of depression, anxiety, and assertiveness increased with the degree of eating disorders. The feeling of ineffectiveness explained a large degree of score variance. It explained 30 to 50% of the variability of assertiveness, phobias, anxiety, and depression. Conclusion. Psychological dysfunctions had a high prevalence and their severity is correlated with degree of eating disorders. The feeling of ineffectiveness constitutes the major predictor of the psychological profile and could open new ways to develop screening tools.

Qualidade do solo avaliada pelo "Soil Quality Kit Test" em dois experimentos de longa duração no Rio Grande do Sul

A avaliação da qualidade do solo (QS) é importante estratégia no planejamento agrícola, possibilitando a identificação e o aprimoramento de sistemas de manejo com características de alta produtividade e de preservação ambiental. O presente estudo foi realizado em dois experimentos de longa duração (10 e 15 anos) conduzidos no Sul do Brasil e teve por objetivo avaliar o efeito de sistemas de manejo na QS, utilizando um kit de análise expedita de qualidade de solo (KQS), desenvolvido pelo Instituto de Qualidade do Solo-USDA-ARS. A eficiência desse kit foi avaliada pela comparação com os métodos tradicionais utilizados na ciência do solo. Nas duas áreas experimentais investigou-se um total de 12 tratamentos, os quais englobaram sistemas de preparo com diferentes intensidades de revolvimento do solo (preparo convencional, preparo reduzido e plantio direto) e sistemas de culturas com ampla faixa de adição de resíduos vegetais ao solo, além da aplicação de doses anuais de N-uréia, variando de 0 a 144 kg ha-1. Em cada base experimental uma área sob campo natural foi avaliada, servindo como referência da condição do solo na ausência de interferência antrópica. Como indicadores de QS, foram avaliados infiltração de água, respiração do solo, densidade do solo, teor de nitrato+nitrito (N-NO3- + N-NO2-), estabilidade de agregados em água e pH. De maneira geral, os coeficientes de correlação entre os métodos do KQS e os métodos tradicionais foram elevados, sendo o mais alto para o indicador pH (r = 0,98) e o menor para o indicador infiltração de água no solo (r = 0,42). Os tratamentos selecionados foram teoricamente ordenados em ordem crescente de QS, a qual foi reproduzida de forma eficiente pelo índice de estoque de carbono (IEC), calculado pela razão entre o estoque de C orgânico do solo, na camada de 0-5 cm, de cada tratamento e o estoque de C orgânico no solo sob campo natural. Os indicadores estabilidade de agregados, N-NO3- + N-NO2- e respiração do solo foram os mais eficientes em discriminar a QS. O KQS foi eficiente em avaliar a QS dos tratamentos nas duas áreas experimentais. Os níveis mais elevados de QS foram alcançados nos tratamentos com plantio direto e consórcio de gramíneas e leguminosas tropicais, devido à cobertura do solo e às elevadas adições de C e N via resíduos culturais.

A Novel Acute Retroviral Syndrome Severity Score Predicts the Key Surrogate Markers for HIV-1 Disease Progression.

OBJECTIVE: Best long-term practice in primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) remains unknown for the individual. A risk-based scoring system associated with surrogate markers of HIV-1 disease progression could be helpful to stratify patients with PHI at highest risk for HIV-1 disease progression. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled 290 individuals with well-documented PHI in the Zurich Primary HIV-1 Infection Study, an open-label, non-randomized, observational, single-center study. Patients could choose to undergo early antiretroviral treatment (eART) and stop it after one year of undetectable viremia, to go on with treatment indefinitely, or to defer treatment. For each patient we calculated an a priori defined "Acute Retroviral Syndrome Severity Score" (ARSSS), consisting of clinical and basic laboratory variables, ranging from zero to ten points. We used linear regression models to assess the association between ARSSS and log baseline viral load (VL), baseline CD4+ cell count, and log viral setpoint (sVL) (i.e. VL measured ≥90 days after infection or treatment interruption). RESULTS: Mean ARSSS was 2.89. CD4+ cell count at baseline was negatively correlated with ARSSS (p = 0.03, n = 289), whereas HIV-RNA levels at baseline showed a strong positive correlation with ARSSS (p<0.001, n = 290). In the regression models, a 1-point increase in the score corresponded to a 0.10 log increase in baseline VL and a CD4+cell count decline of 12/µl, respectively. In patients with PHI and not undergoing eART, higher ARSSS were significantly associated with higher sVL (p = 0.029, n = 64). In contrast, in patients undergoing eART with subsequent structured treatment interruption, no correlation was found between sVL and ARSSS (p = 0.28, n = 40). CONCLUSION: The ARSSS is a simple clinical score that correlates with the best-validated surrogate markers of HIV-1 disease progression. In regions where ART is not universally available and eART is not standard this score may help identifying patients who will profit the most from early antiretroviral therapy.