Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Effect of commercial starter cultures and native yeasts on ochratoxin a production by aspergillus westerdijkiae and penicillium nordicum in meat products

Processed meat products are of worldwide importance and, because of their intrinsic factors as well as the processing methods, they are highly prone to fungal and mycotoxin contamination. Ochratoxin A (OTA) is the most significant mycotoxin in processed meat products. Penicillium nordicum is considered to be responsible for OTA contamination of meat products, as it is highly adapted to salt and protein-rich matrices and is moderately psycrotrophic. However, another OTA-producing fungus, Aspergillus westerdijkiae, adapted to carbon-rich matrices such as cereals and coffee beans, has been recently associated with high levels of OTA in meat products. Several Lactic Acid Bacteria (LAB) and yeasts have been tested as biocontrol agents against P. nordicum growth and OTA production in meat products, with promising results, but none of the studies have considered A. westerdijkiae. The aim of this work was to evaluate in vitro the effect of a commercial starter culture used in sausage fermentation and four yeasts isolated from dry-cured sausage on these two OTA-producing fungi, both in terms of fungal growth and of OTA production, using different meat-based culture media as model systems. The mechanisms underlying the observed effect were also studied. For this purpose, C. krusei, C. zeylanoides, R. mucilaginosa, R. glutinis, a mix of these yeasts and the starter culture were co-inoculated with P. nordicum and A. westerdijkiae in industrial sausage, traditional sausage, and ham-based media, under conditions of water activity, salt concentration and temperature that mimic real conditions at beginning and end of sausage curing process. Fungal growth was determined by measuring colony diameter, and OTA production was quantified by HPLC-FLD after extraction with methanol. Yeasts where found to inhibit significantly the growth of both fungi. P. nordicum was unable to produce detectable OTA in both sausage-based media under any condition. In ham, yeasts reduced OTA production, while the starter culture significantly increased it. Unexpectedly, OTA production by A. westerdijkiae was significantly stimulated in all media tested by all microorganisms. Matrix has a significant effect on OTA production by P. nordicum, but not by A. westerdijkiae, for which only temperature showed to have effect. By testing the mechanisms of action by which starter culture and C. zeylanoides influenced fungal responses, we were able to determine that direct contact and simultaneous growth of test organisms were the mechanisms more significantly involved in the responses. In conclusion, ochratoxigenic fungi do not all respond to antagonistic microorganisms in the same way. The use of biocontrol agents with the intent of reducing fungal growth and mycotoxin production by one fungus can have unexpected effects on others, thus leading to unforeseen safety problems. Further experiments are recommended to properly understand the reasons behind the different effects of microorganisms, to ensure their safe as biocontrol agents.

Analysis and Visualisation of Crowd-sourced Tourism Data

C3S2E '16 Proceedings of the Ninth International C* Conference on Computer Science & Software Engineering

Do tratamento das reclamações à gestão da insatisfação: o comportamento de empresas hoteleiras mediante a insatisfação de seus clientes

Consumer dissatisfaction, when properly handled, is a significant information source for the manager. Studies in this area allow broadening the understanding of certain customer attitudes and behaviors, such as loyalty, repurchase intention or satisfaction and trust increase. Above and beyond supporting consumer feedback, dissatisfaction can provide significant opportunities for organizational learning. Starting from dissatisfied customer information, companies can detect service flaws and develop new products. This work presents the results of an investigation on the behavior of businesses belonging to the hotel sector in Natal, RN, through the dissatisfaction of their customers. We have sought to map the main problems presented by customers to hotels, in the perception of managers and employees, as well as to understand both the process of dissatisfactionrelated data collection, analysis, and processing, and the utilization of such information by businesses. Beyond this, we have compared the habits of organizations to the company reaction approaches described in the literature: Complaint Handling, Complaint Management, and Dissatisfaction Management. The used methodology has been based on case study. Data was collected via indepth interviews with managers and employees in six hotels, two independent ones and four belonging to national and international hotel networks. We have also made use of documents provided by the organizations, such as guest complaint registers and reports from satisfaction surveys on which content analysis was subsequently performed. The results of the investigation point to a high level of awareness in the companies concerning the importance of consumer dissatisfaction. Even though the maximum grade in the procedure scale is not achieved, it has been observed that answer to dissatisfaction is given in planned and systematic form, geared towards consumer satisfaction and improvement of products and processes. Hotel businesses still have to look into other possibilities for mapping consumer dissatisfaction, which implies, among other aspects, articulation with a range of public and private organizations in such a way as to guarantee sustainability of touristic activities in the long term

Gerenciamento de impressões e qualidade dos serviços em hotéis da Paraíba

The present study has got as its aim to show how the impressions management is being used by the hotels in Paraiba State. For that, the dramma or role play perspective has been adopted as a model for service management. From the theater metaphor, the physical environment and its components can be seen as a scenery of the service show. We conduct the reader to notice the importance of the consummer about the service quality demand and its influence on his satisfaction. A methodology with exploring and qualifying nature has been adopted by using the analyses of content technique in interviews applied to hotel managers lebeled as having 4 and 5 stars in the State, trying to check how impression management takes place, identifying impression management tools used in relation to the physical evidences and to contacting people, as well as checking managers views in the survey about the use of impression management for client satisfaction make. The information revealed that managers, maybe for being unaware about impression management theory, haven t considered neither the physical evidences yet, nor contacting people as marketing tools. About the physical evidences, we could see that hotels take actions in a pulverized way referring to environment decoration and colors, however there isn t a global usage of physical evidences to highlight the service. Contacting people by their turn, receive better importance and attention. It was possible to make sure that managers are aware about the influence of the employee over the attendance quality. This way, we may come into a conclusion that impression management at Paraiba hotels has been under used, as long as managers seem to be, most times, turned to actions related to contacting people, not having realized the planning importance and national-wide use of service scenery in a genaral way yet

Influência dos intermediários de distribuição de produtos turísticos no processo de decisão do meio de hospedagem pelo consumidor

This study examines the complex hotel buyer decision process in front of the tourism distribution channels. Its objective is to describe the influence level of the tourism marketing intermediaries, mainly the travel agents and tour operators, over the hotel decision process by the buyer-tourist. The data collection process was done trough a survey with three hundred brazilian tourists hosted in nineteen hotels of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The data analysis was done using some multivariate statistic techniques as correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, factor analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. The research characterizes the hotel services consumers profile and his trip, and identifying the distribution channels used by them. Furthermore, the research verifies the intermediaries influence exercised over hotel buyer decision process, looking for identify causality relations between the influence level and the buyer profile. Verifies that information about hotels available on internet reduces the probability that this influence can be practiced; however it was possible identifying those consumers considers this information complementary and non-substitutes than the information from intermediaries. The characteristics of the data do not allow indentifying the factors that constraint the intermediaries influence neither identifying discriminant functions of the specific distribution channel choice by consumers. The study concludes that consumers don t agree in have been influenced by intermediaries or don t know if they have, still considering important to consult them and internet doesn t substitute their function as information source

Seguridad de pacientes en la unidad de emergencia del Hospital Nacional de Niños Benjamín Bloom del 20 de Octubre 2013 al 20 Octubre 2014

En muchos países se han hecho esfuerzos para estudiar la seguridad del paciente en el caso particular de El Salvador, no existe un antecedente de investigación sobre este tópico. El presente estudio pretende ser un precedente en ésta área de conocimiento en nuestro país. La investigación fue de tipo descriptivo, basada en una encuesta estructurada que mide la percepción del personal médico y de enfermería de la unidad de emergencia del Hospital de Niños Benjamín Bloom, en relación a los efectos adversos e incidentes más frecuentes ocurridos durante un año y los factores causales que los propician. Se exploraron los diferentes aspectos acerca de la seguridad del paciente, por medio de una investigación de tipo descriptivo de corte retrospectivo en la unidad de emergencia, la cual fue escogida como área de estudio dado que es uno de los lugares donde es más factible que ocurran incidentes y eventos adversos por: la dinámica de trabajo, la gran cantidad de pacientes que se atienden y por el estado de gravedad de los mismos. Se tomó como muestra a todo el personal médico y de enfermería de dicha unidad que dio su consentimiento para contestar las preguntas del instrumento de ésta investigación y cumplir con los criterios establecidos para la ejecución de la misma que corresponde al 90.7% del personal asistencial. Los datos de ésta investigación fueron recopilados del 3 de Noviembre de 2014 al 10 de Noviembre de 2014. Se puede destacar, que la mayoría de los factores que propician una cultura de seguridad sana se practican en la Unidad de Emergencia del Hospital Nacional de Niños Benjamín Bloom, el evento adverso e incidente que se da con mayor frecuencia es la indicación médica poco legible, el factor que más facilitó eventos adverso fue el no corregir las causas desencadenantes de los mismos, los factores que más facilitaron que sucedieran incidentes en la unidad de emergencia son el exceso de trabajo y el aumento en la demanda asistencial.

Alteraciones en la voz de las pacientes con anorexia nerviosa restrictiva: un estudio piloto

Se realiza un estudio sobre el tono (percepción acústica) de la voz en la anorexia nerviosa restrictiva (ANR). El objetivo es valorar la alteración en la voz de las pacientes con ANR cuando el trastorno se inicia en la pubertad. La muestra total son 148 sujetos distribuidos en dos grupos: grupo control (n = 102) y ANR (n = 46). Se determinó la frecuencia fundamental de la voz (F0) utilizando dos fonemas ("a" e "i") mediante un micrófono Plantronic 300 y grabador digital. Se analiza la voz con el programa Praat. Se presentan los primeros datos para la lengua española de los valores normales de la F0 de voz en población femenina sana de 9 a 17 años. Posteriormente se muestran los datos comparativos con el grupo de pacientes con ANR.

A perspectiva do utilizador do Facebook relativamente à escolha de alojamento turístico

Atualmente assistimos a um aumento exponencial do uso dos social media como meio para planear as viagens lazer, bem como procurar por informações relativas a hotéis, restaurantes e outras empresas na indústria de turismo e viagens. Os social media criaram um novo canal de distribuição, tendo este influenciado e alterado a forma como os viajantes determinam o local onde vão ficar alojados. É importante que as empresas hoteleiras compreendam o comportamento dos consumidores face aos social media e, assim, determinar qual a forma de comunicação e que informações deverão disponibilizar nos seus sites. A título de exemplo, os hotéis conseguem interagir com os clientes através das redes sociais, como o Facebook, Instagram ou Youtube, partilhar diversos tipos de conteúdos informativos e prestar assistência a questões. O presente estudo tem como objetivo compreender o uso das redes sociais, apresentando-se um maior foco na rede social Facebook, na promoção de um estabelecimento hoteleiro e, com isto, determinar se a promoção dos serviços hoteleiros através deste meio, apresenta influência na tomada de decisão de escolha de alojamento turístico. Por outro lado, pretendese analisar o impacto das avaliações/recomendações realizadas pelos consumidores presentes no Facebook. Adotou-se uma metodologia quantitativa, através de um questionário online. Para analisar as hipóteses de estudo recorreu-se a diversos testes estatísticos. Os principais resultados demonstraram que são diversos os meios online e offline em que os consumidores se baseiam para fazer a sua decisão de escolha de alojamento, sendo um destes o Facebook, que apresenta uma grande representatividade. O word-of-mouth, contabilizado através das opiniões dos antigos clientes presentes em sites de avaliações e em redes sociais revela-se uma componente determinante no processo de recolha de informação sobre determinado alojamento e consequentemente influenciador na escolha de alojamento. Por último, verificou-se que o Facebook apresenta ter um papel decisivo no processo de decisão de escolha de alojamento turístico.

A Visual Analytics Approach to Comparing Cohorts of Event Sequences

Sequences of timestamped events are currently being generated across nearly every domain of data analytics, from e-commerce web logging to electronic health records used by doctors and medical researchers. Every day, this data type is reviewed by humans who apply statistical tests, hoping to learn everything they can about how these processes work, why they break, and how they can be improved upon. To further uncover how these processes work the way they do, researchers often compare two groups, or cohorts, of event sequences to find the differences and similarities between outcomes and processes. With temporal event sequence data, this task is complex because of the variety of ways single events and sequences of events can differ between the two cohorts of records: the structure of the event sequences (e.g., event order, co-occurring events, or frequencies of events), the attributes about the events and records (e.g., gender of a patient), or metrics about the timestamps themselves (e.g., duration of an event). Running statistical tests to cover all these cases and determining which results are significant becomes cumbersome. Current visual analytics tools for comparing groups of event sequences emphasize a purely statistical or purely visual approach for comparison. Visual analytics tools leverage humans' ability to easily see patterns and anomalies that they were not expecting, but is limited by uncertainty in findings. Statistical tools emphasize finding significant differences in the data, but often requires researchers have a concrete question and doesn't facilitate more general exploration of the data. Combining visual analytics tools with statistical methods leverages the benefits of both approaches for quicker and easier insight discovery. Integrating statistics into a visualization tool presents many challenges on the frontend (e.g., displaying the results of many different metrics concisely) and in the backend (e.g., scalability challenges with running various metrics on multi-dimensional data at once). I begin by exploring the problem of comparing cohorts of event sequences and understanding the questions that analysts commonly ask in this task. From there, I demonstrate that combining automated statistics with an interactive user interface amplifies the benefits of both types of tools, thereby enabling analysts to conduct quicker and easier data exploration, hypothesis generation, and insight discovery. The direct contributions of this dissertation are: (1) a taxonomy of metrics for comparing cohorts of temporal event sequences, (2) a statistical framework for exploratory data analysis with a method I refer to as high-volume hypothesis testing (HVHT), (3) a family of visualizations and guidelines for interaction techniques that are useful for understanding and parsing the results, and (4) a user study, five long-term case studies, and five short-term case studies which demonstrate the utility and impact of these methods in various domains: four in the medical domain, one in web log analysis, two in education, and one each in social networks, sports analytics, and security. My dissertation contributes an understanding of how cohorts of temporal event sequences are commonly compared and the difficulties associated with applying and parsing the results of these metrics. It also contributes a set of visualizations, algorithms, and design guidelines for balancing automated statistics with user-driven analysis to guide users to significant, distinguishing features between cohorts. This work opens avenues for future research in comparing two or more groups of temporal event sequences, opening traditional machine learning and data mining techniques to user interaction, and extending the principles found in this dissertation to data types beyond temporal event sequences.

Occupational compensation survey--pay only.

Title from caption.

Gestão do marketing de relacionamento: um estudo em empresas hoteleiras de Natal - RN

The present study it analyzes the Management of the Marketing of strategy Relationship as distinguishing for the host s companies of the city of Natal - RN. To carry through this analysis interviews with managers had been carried through, as well as the direct comment of processes, documents, actions and strategies developed for the hotels, with intention to know the level of perception and valuation of the relationship with customers, to verify resources and technologies used in the Management of the Relationship Marketing, identification, segmentation and differentiation of customers, personalization of products and services, and results of the emphasis in the relationship with customers for the host s companies. The research can be classified as exploratory - descriptive, and its universe is limited to the city of Natal, having enclosed hotels that have carried through tourist activity in 2005 and 2006. Still on the criteria of election of the sample, the study it investigated host s companies who if fit in the category superior luxury, or either, five stars, pertaining the national nets and international. How much to the treatment and analysis of the data the was made to leave of the theoretical support of the authors who work the thematic one and of the analysis of the interviews with managers, documents and processes observed for the researcher in the studied hotels. The research sample that the interviewed ones understand the importance to work the Management of the Marketing of Relationship in the host s companies me intention to get sustainable competitive advantage. One still evidenced that the searched hotels make use of strategies and instruments of Management of the Marketing of Relationship, however without an ample theoretical knowledge and yes only as base in the experience of the managers and spread processes already, generating one moment competitive advantage and not relationships of long duration

EL IMPACTO DE LA CRISIS ECONÓMICA MUNDIAL SOBRE LA ECONOMÍA COSTARRICENSE: los efectos macroeconómicos

ResumenLa economía costarricense es una economía pequeña pero muy abierta al exterior, por ello, lo que ocurre en el resto del mundo nos afecta de alguna manera. Cuando estalló la crisis en los Estados Unidos, sus repercusiones se hicieron notar poco a poco alrededor del mundo. En un principio el principal efecto sobre nuestro país se vio reflejado en la inflación, sin embargo, conforme transcurrió el tiempo los efectos saltaron al sector real de la economía, es decir, a la producción y al empleo. En este artículo se analizan los principales efectos que hasta el momento ha tenido la crisis económica mundial en nuestro país, entre ellos se mencionan, la inflación; el decrecimiento en la actividad económica de los sectores construcción, industria, comercio y hoteles, principalmente; la caída en el turismo, las remesas, la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED), las exportaciones e importaciones y, por último, la reducción en el empleo.Abstract Costa Rican economy is a very small open economy; therefore, what happens in the rest of the world affects us in some way. When the crisis in the United States exploded, its impact was slowly evident around the world. At first, the main effect on our country was reflected in inflation; however, the effects were then clear on the real sector of the economy, i.e. production and employment. This article examines the main effects which so far have been the global economic crisis in our economy, including inflation, and the decline in the economic activity in the construction sector, industry, commerce and hotels, primarily; as well as the fall in tourism, remittances, Foreign Direct Investment, exports and imports, and finally the reduction in employment.

As estratégias de internacionalização, as suas motivações e determinantes: o caso do Grupo Pestana

A internacionalização consiste num processo crescente e gradual, através do qual as organizações expandem os seus negócios externamente. Com diversas motivações subjacentes, a internacionalização pode resultar de fenómenos proactivos ou reativos. O objetivo deste trabalho visa estudar este comportamento numa empresa do setor hoteleiro – Grupo Pestana Hotels & Resorts. A metodologia baseou-se numa análise qualitativa, tendo por base uma entrevista à administração do grupo. As conclusões apontam a diversificação do risco de investimentos e o aumento do volume de negócios como as principais motivações para iniciação do processo de internacionalização. No que se refere às abordagens aos mercados externos, o grupo privilegiou formas como, as aquisições, projetos greenfields e contratos de gestão, por permitirem um maior controlo e gestão sobre os hotéis. Todo o processo tem em conta uma análise económica e um conhecimento e investimento gradual ao longo da última década.

Algunos problemas de la contratación privada

La Universidad de Medellín realizó las II Jornadas de Contratación Privada, asumiéndolas como un nuevo pero prometedor espacio para el debate académico. Estas jornadas pretenden convertirse en un escenario idóneo para que el cuerpo profesoral vinculado a la Facultad de Derecho y las personas interesadas en el tema sometan a consideración de la comunidad académica los resultados de sus esfuerzos investigativos, procurando la sana y fructífera discusión de las tesis propuestas. Las temáticas de las ponencias han sido definidas en atención a su actualidad, a su núcleo problemático y a la posibilidad de generar controversia en los ámbitos jurídico, político y social, porque la academia debe hacer presencia, desde sus múltiples posibilidades, en la resolución de los problemas de la sociedad.