Rank histograms of stratified Monte-Carlo ensembles

The application of forecast ensembles to probabilistic weather prediction has spurred considerable interest in their evaluation. Such ensembles are commonly interpreted as Monte Carlo ensembles meaning that the ensemble members are perceived as random draws from a distribution. Under this interpretation, a reasonable property to ask for is statistical consistency, which demands that the ensemble members and the verification behave like draws from the same distribution. A widely used technique to assess statistical consistency of a historical dataset is the rank histogram, which uses as a criterion the number of times that the verification falls between pairs of members of the ordered ensemble. Ensemble evaluation is rendered more specific by stratification, which means that ensembles that satisfy a certain condition (e.g., a certain meteorological regime) are evaluated separately. Fundamental relationships between Monte Carlo ensembles, their rank histograms, and random sampling from the probability simplex according to the Dirichlet distribution are pointed out. Furthermore, the possible benefits and complications of ensemble stratification are discussed. The main conclusion is that a stratified Monte Carlo ensemble might appear inconsistent with the verification even though the original (unstratified) ensemble is consistent. The apparent inconsistency is merely a result of stratification. Stratified rank histograms are thus not necessarily flat. This result is demonstrated by perfect ensemble simulations and supplemented by mathematical arguments. Possible methods to avoid or remove artifacts that stratification induces in the rank histogram are suggested.

Botanising women : transmission, translation and European exchange

This issue of the Journal of Literature and Science is a special issue entitled ‘Women and Botany’ edited by Sam George and Alison E. Martin.

Investigation on Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV) pollen transmission through cross-pollination

DNA- and RNA-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) systems were used with Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV) primers designed from conserved regions of the six published genomic sequences of CSSV to investigate whether the virus is transmissible from infected trees through cross-pollination to seeds and seedlings. Pollen was harvested from CSSV infected cocoa trees and used to cross-pollinate flowers of healthy cocoa trees (recipient parents) to generate enough cocoa seeds for the PCR screening. Adequate precautions were taken to avoid cross-contamination during duplicated DNA extractions and only PCR results accompanied by effective positive and negative controls were scored. Results from the PCR analyses showed that samples of cocoa pod husk, mesocarp and seed tissues (testa, cotyledon and embryo) from the cross-pollinations were PCR negative for CSSV DNA. Sequential DNA samples from new leaves of seedlings resulting from the cross-pollinated trees were consistently PCR negative for presence of portions of CSSV DNA for over 36 months after germination. A reverse transcription-PCR analysis performed on the seedlings showed negative results, indicating absence of functional CSSV RNA transcripts in the seedlings. None of the seedlings exhibited symptoms characteristic of the CSSV disease, and all infectivity tests on the seedlings were also negative. Following these results, the study concluded that although CSSV DNA was detected in pollen from CSSV infected trees, there was no evidence of pollen transmission of the virus through cross-pollination from infected cocoa parents to healthy cocoa trees.

A contribution to the wireless transmission of power

A resonant transmitter–receiver system is described for the wireless transmission of energy at a useful distance for grid-coordinate power and information. Experimental results are given showing delivery of power of an unmodified Tesla resonator contrasted with a modified version achieving improved efficiency over a 4 m range. A theoretical basis is provided to back up the experimental results obtained and to link the study with previous research in the field. A number of potential routes are suggested for further investigations and some possible applications of the technology are considered.

Impact of HPA nonlinearity on MIMO systems with quantized equal gain transmission

In this paper, we investigate the performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmit beamforming (TB) systems in the presence of nonlinear high-power amplifiers (HPAs). Due to the suboptimality of maximal ratio transmission/maximal ratio combining (MRT/MRC) under HPA nonlinearity, quantized equal gain transmission (QEGT) is suggested as a feasible TB scheme. The effect of HPA nonlinearity on the performance of MIMO QEGT/MRC is evaluated in terms of the average symbol error probability (SEP) and system capacity, considering transmission over uncorrelated quasi-static frequency-flat Rayleigh fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show the effects of several system parameters, such as the parameters of nonlinear HPA, cardinality of the beamforming weight vector codebook, and modulation order of quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), on performance.

Voice, body and the transmission of the real in documentary theatre

This article analyses how listening is used to develop performances in Alecky Blythe’s verbatim theatre. Listening includes Blythe’s use of recorded oral interviews for devising performances, and also the actors’ creation of performance by precisely imitating an interviewee’s voice. The article focuses on listening, speaking and embodiment in London Road, Blythe’s recent musical play at London’s National Theatre, which adopted and modified theatre strategies used in her other plays, especially The Girlfriend Experience and Do We look Like Refugees. The article draws on interviews with performers and with Blythe herself, in its critical analysis of how voice legitimates claims to authenticity in performance. The work on Blythe is contextualised by brief comparative analyses. One is Clio Barnard’s film The Arbor, a ‘quasi-documentary’ on the playwright, Andrea Dunbar which makes use of an oral script to which the actors lip-sync. The other comparator is the Wooster Group’s Poor Theater, which attempts to recreate Grotowski's Akropolis via vocal impersonation. The article argues that voice in London Road both claims and defers authenticity and authority, inasmuch as voice signifies presence and embodied identity but the reworking of speech into song signals the absence of the real. The translation of voice into written surtitles works similarly in Do We Look Like Refugees. Blythe’s theatre, Barnard’s film and The Wooster Group’s performances are a useful framework for addressing questions of voice and identity, and authenticity and replication in documentary theatre. The article concludes by placing Blythe’s oral texts amid current debates around theatre’s textual practices.

Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia

This paper models the transmission of shocks between the US, Japanese and Australian equity markets. Tests for the existence of linear and non-linear transmission of volatility across the markets are performed using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular the size and sign of return innovations are important factors in determining the degree of spillovers in volatility. It is found that a multivariate asymmetric GARCH formulation can explain almost all of the non-linear causality between markets. These results have important implications for the construction of models and forecasts of international equity returns.

Transmission of wireless power by magnetic resonance

The work involves investigation of a type of wireless power system wherein its analysis will yield the construction of a prototype modeled as a singular technological artifact. It is through exploration of the artifact that forms the intellectual basis for not only its prototypical forms, but suggestive of variant forms not yet discovered. Through the process it is greatly clarified the role of the artifact, its most suitable application given the constraints on the delivery problem, and optimization strategies to improve it. In order to improve maturity and contribute to a body of knowledge, this document proposes research utilizing mid-field region, efficient inductive-transfer for the purposes of removing wired connections and electrical contacts. While the description seems enough to state the purpose of this work, it does not convey the compromises of having to redraw the lines of demarcation between near and far-field in the traditional method of broadcasting. Two striking scenarios are addressed in this thesis: Firstly, the mathematical explanation of wireless power is due to J.C. Maxwell's original equations, secondly, the behavior of wireless power in the circuit is due to Joseph Larmor's fundamental works on the dynamics of the field concept. A model of propagation will be presented which matches observations in experiments. A modified model of the dipole will be presented to address the phenomena observed in the theory and experiments. Two distinct sets of experiments will test the concept of single and two coupled-modes. In a more esoteric context of the zero and first-order magnetic field, the suggestion of a third coupled-mode is presented. Through the remaking of wireless power in this context, it is the intention of the author to show the reader that those things lost to history, bound to a path of complete obscurity, are once again innovative and useful ideas.

Improving transmission reliability of low-power medium access control protocols using average diversity combining

Embedded computer systems equipped with wireless communication transceivers are nowadays used in a vast number of application scenarios. Energy consumption is important in many of these scenarios, as systems are battery operated and long maintenance-free operation is required. To achieve this goal, embedded systems employ low-power communication transceivers and protocols. However, currently used protocols cannot operate efficiently when communication channels are highly erroneous. In this study, we show how average diversity combining (ADC) can be used in state-of-the-art low-power communication protocols. This novel approach improves transmission reliability and in consequence energy consumption and transmission latency in the presence of erroneous channels. Using a testbed, we show that highly erroneous channels are indeed a common occurrence in situations, where low-power systems are used and we demonstrate that ADC improves low-power communication dramatically.

Cashew cultivation, access to land and food security in Brong-Ahafo Region, Ghana: Preventing the intergenerational transmission of poverty

This research aimed to investigate the implications of changing agricultural land use from food production towards increased cashew cultivation for food security and poverty alleviation in Jaman North District, Brong-Ahafo Region of Ghana. Based on qualitative, participatory research with a total of 60 participants, the research found that increased cashew production had led to improvements in living standards for many farmers and their children over recent years. Global demand for cashew is projected to continue to grow rapidly in the immediate future and cashew-growing areas of Ghana are well placed to respond to this demand. Cashew farmers however were subject to price fluctuations in the value of Raw Cashew Nuts (RCN) due to unequal power relations with intermediaries and export buyer companies and global markets, in addition to other vulnerabilities that constrained the quality and quantity of cashew and food crops they could produce. The expansion of cashew plantations was leading to pressure on the remaining family lands available for food crop production, which community members feared could potentially compromise the food security of rural communities and the land inheritance of future generations.

Observing the in situ chiral modification of Ni nanoparticles using scanning transmission X-ray microspectroscopy

Enantioselective heterogeneous hydrogenation of Cdouble bond; length as m-dashO bonds is of great potential importance in the synthesis of chirally pure products for the pharmaceutical and fine chemical industries. One of the most widely studied examples of such a reaction is the hydrogenation of β-ketoesters and β-diketoesters over Ni-based catalysts in the presence of a chiral modifier. Here we use scanning transmission X-ray microscopy combined with near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (STXM/NEXAFS) to investigate the adsorption of the chiral modifier, namely (R,R)-tartaric acid, onto individual nickel nanoparticles. The C K-edge spectra strongly suggest that tartaric acid deposited onto the nanoparticle surfaces from aqueous solutions undergoes a keto-enol tautomerisation. Furthermore, we are able to interrogate the Ni L2,3-edge resonances of individual metal nanoparticles which, combined with X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns showed them to consist of a pure nickel phase rather than the more thermodynamically stable bulk nickel oxide. Importantly, there appears to be no “particle size effect” on the adsorption mode of the tartaric acid in the particle size range ~ 90–~ 300 nm.

International transmission mechanisms and contagion in housing markets

This paper explores international transmission mechanism and its role in contagion effect in the housing markets across six major Asian cities. The analysis is based on the identification of house price diffusion effects through a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model estimated using quarterly data for six major Asian cities (Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Bangkok) from 1991Q1 to 2011Q2. The empirical results indicate that the open economies heavily relying on international trade such as Singapore, Japan (Tokyo), Taiwan (Taipei) and Thailand (Bangkok) show positive correlations between the economy's openness and house prices, which is consistent with the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis. Interestingly, some region-specific conditions also appear to play important roles as determinants of house price movements, which may be driven by restrictive housing policies and demand–supply imbalances such as Singapore and Bangkok. These results are reasonably robust across several model specifications. The findings bear significant implications for formulation of investment strategy and public policies.