Associations between flavan-3-ol intake and CVD risk in the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk)

Background: Dietary intervention studies suggest that flavan-3-ol intake can improve vascular function and reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, results from prospective studies failed to show a consistent beneficial effect. Objective: To investigate associations between flavan-3-ol intake and CVD risk in the Norfolk arm of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk). Design: Data was available from 24,885 (11,252 men; 13,633 women) participants, recruited between 1993 and 1997 into the EPIC-Norfolk study. Flavan-3-ol intake was assessed using 7-day food diaries and the FLAVIOLA Flavanol Food Composition database. Missing data for plasma cholesterol and vitamin C were imputed using multiple imputation. Associations between flavan-3-ol intake and blood pressure at baseline were determined using linear regression models. Associations with CVD risk were estimated using Cox regression analyses. Results: Median intake of total flavan-3-ols was 1034 mg/d (range: 0 – 8531 mg/d) for men and 970 mg/d (0 – 6695 mg/d) for women, median intake of flavan-3-ol monomers was 233 mg/d (0 – 3248 mg/d) for men and 217 (0 – 2712 mg/d) for women. There were no consistent associations between flavan-3-ol monomer intake and baseline systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP). After 286,147 person-years of follow up, there were 8463 cardio-vascular events and 1987 CVD related deaths; no consistent association between flavan-3-ol intake and CVD risk (HR 0.93, 95% CI:0.87; 1.00; Q1 vs Q5) or mortality was observed (HR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.84; 1.04). Conclusions: Flavan-3-ol intake in EPIC-Norfolk is not sufficient to achieve a statistically significant reduction in CVD risk.

Associations between FTO genotype and total energy and macronutrients intake: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Risk variants of the fat-mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene have been associated with increased obesity. However, the evidence for associations between FTO genotype and macronutrients intake has not been reviewed systematically. Our aim was to evaluate potential associations between FTO genotype and intakes of total energy, fat, carbohydrate and protein. We undertook a systematic literature search in Medline, Scopus, EMBASE and Cochrane of associations between macronutrients intake and FTO genotype in adults. Beta coefficients and confidence intervals were used for per-allele comparisons. Random-effects models assessed the pooled effect sizes. We identified 56 eligible studies reporting on 213 173 adults. For each copy of the FTO risk allele, individuals reported 6.46 kcal/day (95% CI: 10.76, 2.16) lower total energy intake (P=0.003). Total fat (P=0.028) and protein (P=0.006), but not carbohydrate intakes, were higher in those carrying the FTO risk allele. After adjustment for body weight, total energy intakes remained significantly lower in individuals with the FTO risk genotype (P=0.028). The FTO risk allele is associated with a lower reported total energy intake and with altered patterns of macronutrients intake. Although significant, these differences are small and further research is needed to determine whether the associations are independent of dietary misreporting.

Factors affecting the concentration in seven-spotted ladybirds (Coccinella septempunctata L.) of Cd and Zn transferred through the food chain

The transfer of Cd and Zn from soils amended with sewage sludge was followed through a food chain consisting of wheat, aphids and the predator Coccinella septempunctata. Multiple regression models were generated to predict the concentrations of Cd and Zn in C. septempunctata. No significant model could be generated for Cd, indicting that the concentration of this metal was maintained within relatively narrow limits. A model predicting 64% of the variability in the Zn concentration of C. septempunctata was generated from of the concentration of Zn in the diet, time and rate of Zn consumption. The results suggest that decreasing the rate of food consumption is an effective mechanism to prevent the accumulation of Zn and that the availability of Zn in the aphid prey increased with the concentration in the aphids. The results emphasise the importance of using ecologically relevant food chains and exposure pathways during ecotoxicological studies.

Bayesian model comparison with un-normalised likelihoods

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalizing constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte Carlo methods is not possible due to the intractability of their likelihood functions. Several methods that permit exact, or close to exact, simulation from the posterior distribution have recently been developed. However, estimating the evidence and Bayes’ factors for these models remains challenging in general. This paper describes new random weight importance sampling and sequential Monte Carlo methods for estimating BFs that use simulation to circumvent the evaluation of the intractable likelihood, and compares them to existing methods. In some cases we observe an advantage in the use of biased weight estimates. An initial investigation into the theoretical and empirical properties of this class of methods is presented. Some support for the use of biased estimates is presented, but we advocate caution in the use of such estimates.

Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Problems with accessibility to health services by persons with disabilities in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Purpose. To describe the occurrence of self-reported problems of accessibility to health services used by persons with disabilities in terms of social and health services variables. Methods. We performed a cross-sectional household survey designed to assess problems with accessibility to health services faced by persons with disabilities. We interviewed 333 persons in Sao Paulo city, in 2007. Variables related to the presence of accessibility problems, disabilities, gender, age, family head income, ethnicity, use of health services and others were analysed using frequencies, percentages, chi(2)-test, ANOVA and Poisson regression models. Results. 15.92% of the interviewed persons reported problems with accessibility to health services. Persons having multiple (prevalence ratios; PR = 2.91) or mobility disability (PR = 6.46) had more problems with accessibility than persons with hearing disability. Persons younger than 78 years old had more problems with accessibility; those who needed help to go to the health service (PR = 3.01) also. Conclusions. Persons with multiple or mobility disability, younger than 78 years, and those who needed help of others to go to the health service were more likely to have problems with accessibility to health services. This information could be one of the first steps to the management and/or planning of appropriate health services for persons with disabilities.

Dietary omega-3 fatty acid and omega-3: omega-6 fatty acid ratio predict improvement in glucose disturbances in Japanese Brazilians

Objective: We investigated whether lifestyle-induced changes in dietary fat quality are related to Improvements on glucose metabolism disturbances in Japanese Brazilians at high risk of type 2 diabetes Methods: One hundred forty-eight first- and second-generation subjects with impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glycemia who attended a lifestyle intervention program for 12 mo were studied in the city of Bauru. State of Sao Paulo, Brazil Dietary fatty acid intakes at baseline and after 12 mo were estimated using three 24-h recalls. The effect of dietary fat intake on glucose metabolism was investigated by multiple logistic regression models Results: At baseline, mean standard deviation age and body mass index were 60 II y and 25 5 4.2 kg/m2, respectively After 12 mo. 92 subjects had normal plasma glucose levels and 56 remained in prediabetic conditions. Using logistic regression models adjusted for age, gender, generation, basal intake of explanatory nutrient, energy intake, physical activity, and waist circumference, the odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for reversion to normoglycemia were 3 14 (1 22-8 10) in the second wrote of total w-3 fatty acid, 4 26 (1.34-13 57) in the second tunic of eicosapentaenoic acid, and 280 (1 10-7.10) in the second tertile of linolenic acid. Similarly. subjects in the highest wrote of w-3.w-6 fatty acid ratio showed a higher chance of improving glucose disturbances (2 51, 1.01-6.37) Conclusions: Our findings support the evidence of an independent protective effect of omega-3 fatty acid and of a higher omega-3:omega-6 fatty acid ratio on the glucose metabolism of high-risk individuals (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved.

Dietary predictors of serum total carotene in low-income women living in Sao Paulo, south-east Brazil

Objective Dietary intake and nutritional status of antioxidant vitamins have been reported to protect against some cancers The objective of the present study was to assess the correlations between serum levels of carotenoids (including beta-, alpha- and gamma-carotene), lycopene, retinol, alpha- and gamma-tocopherols, and dietary intakes estimated by an FFQ, among low-income women in the Brazilian Investigation into Nutrition and Cervical Cancer Prevention (BRINCA) study. Design Cross-sectional study of data for 918 women aged 21-65 years participating in the BRINCA study in Sao Paulo city. Multiple linear regression models were used with serum nutrient levels as the dependent variable and dietary intake levels as the independent variable, adjusted for confounding factors. Results In energy-adjusted analyses, the intakes of dark green and deep yellow vegetables and fruits (partial R(2) = 4.8%), total fruits and juices (partial R(2) = 1.8%), vegetables and fruits (partial R(2) = 1.8%), carrots (partial R(2) = 1.4%) and citrus fruits and juices only (partial R(2) = 0.8%) were positively correlated only with serum total carotene levels, after adjusting for serum total cholesterol concentration, age, hospital attended, smoking status. BMI and presence of cervical lesions Multiple-adjusted serum levels of carotenoids were positively correlated with intake quartiles of dark green and deep yellow vegetables and fruits and total fruits and juices independent of smoking status. Conclusions The intake of specific fruits and vegetables was an independent predictor of serum total carotene levels in low-income women living in Sao Paulo

High intake of fruits and vegetables predicts weight loss in Brazilian overweight adults

To determine whether changes in dietary intakes predict weight loss, we studied 80 overweight adults who attended a nutritional counseling program during 6 months of follow-up at a primary health care center in Brazil. Habitual diet was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire at baseline and after 6 months. The mean age (+/-SD) of the participants was 46.5 +/- 9.5 years, and their mean body mass index was 29 +/- 3 kg/m(2) at baseline. After 6 months, the differences in body weight and fruit/vegetable intake were -1.4 +/- 3 kg and 109 +/- 320 g daily, respectively. Using multiple linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, changes in walking time, and total energy intake, the increased intake of dietary fiber from fruits/vegetables was associated with a greater weight loss (beta 1 [95% confidence interval (CI)] = -0.180 [-0.269, -0.0911) after 6 months of follow-up. Similar results were observed for increased intake of vegetables (beta 1 [95% CI] = -0.00497 [-0.008, -0.0021) and fruits (beta 1 [95% CI] = -0.00290 [-0.005, -0.001]) as predictors of weight loss. The increase of 100 g/d of vegetables and fruits represented a body weight loss of 500 and 300 g after 6 months, respectively (P <.05). Our findings support the relevance of increased intakes of fruits and vegetables that may help avoid weight gain in overweight adults. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ratios of UV, PAR and NIR components to global solar radiation measured at Botucatu site in Brazil

The relationships between the four radiant fluxes are analyzed based on a 4 year data archive of hourly and daily global ultraviolet (I(UV)), photosynthetically active-PAR (I(PAR)), near infrared (I(NIR)) and broadband global solar radiation (I(G)) collected at Botucatu, Brazil. These data are used to establish both the fractions of spectral components to global solar radiation and the proposed linear regression models. Verification results indicated that the proposed regression models predict accurately the spectral radiant fluxes at least for the Brazilian environment. Finally, results obtained in this analysis agreed well with most published results in the literature. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling hourly and daily fractions of UV, PAR and NIR to global solar radiation under various sky conditions at Botucatu, Brazil

In this analysis, using available hourly and daily radiometric data performed at Botucatu, Brazil, several empirical models relating ultraviolet (UV), photosynthetically active (PAR) and near infrared (NIR) solar global components with solar global radiation (G) are established. These models are developed and discussed through clearness index K(T) (ratio of the global-to-extraterrestrial solar radiation). Results obtained reveal that the proposed empirical models predict hourly and daily values accurately. Finally. the overall analysis carried Out demonstrates that the sky conditions are more important in developing correlation models between the UV component and the global solar radiation. The linear regression models derived to estimate PAR and NIR components may be obtained without sky condition considerations within a maximum variation of 8%. In the case of UV, not taking into consideration the sky condition may cause a discrepancy of up to 18% for hourly values and 15% for daily values. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors associated with health-related quality of life after successful kidney transplantation: a population-based study

Kidney transplantation improves the quality of life of end-stage renal disease patients. The quality of life benefits, however, pertain to patients on average, not to all transplant recipients. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with health-related quality of life after kidney transplantation. Population-based study with a cross-sectional design was carried out and quality of life was assessed by SF-36 Health Survey Version 1. A multivariate linear regression model was constructed with sociodemographic, clinical and laboratory data as independent variables. Two hundred and seventy-two kidney recipients with a functioning graft were analyzed. Hypertension, diabetes, higher serum creatinine and lower hematocrit were independently and significantly associated with lower scores for the SF-36 oblique physical component summary (PCSc). The final regression model explained 11% of the PCSc variance. The scores of oblique mental component summary (MCSc) were worse for females, patients with a lower income, unemployed and patients with a higher serum creatinine. The regression model explained 9% of the MCSc variance. Among the studied variables, comorbidity and graft function were the main factors associated with the PCSc, and sociodemographic variables and graft function were the main determinants of MCSc. Despite comprehensive, the final regression models explained only a little part of the heath-related quality of life variance. Additional factors, such as personal, environmental and clinical ones might influence quality of life perceived by the patients after kidney transplantation.

Effects of roads, topography, and land use on forest cover dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Roads and topography can determine patterns of land use and distribution of forest cover, particularly in tropical regions. We evaluated how road density, land use, and topography affected forest fragmentation, deforestation and forest regrowth in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest region near the city of Sao Paulo. We mapped roads and land use/land cover for three years (1962, 1981 and 2000) from historical aerial photographs, and summarized the distribution of roads, land use/land cover and topography within a grid of 94 non-overlapping 100 ha squares. We used generalized least squares regression models for data analysis. Our models showed that forest fragmentation and deforestation depended on topography, land use and road density, whereas forest regrowth depended primarily on land use. However, the relationships between these variables and forest dynamics changed in the two studied periods; land use and slope were the strongest predictors from 1962 to 1981, and past (1962) road density and land use were the strongest predictors for the following period (1981-2000). Roads had the strongest relationship with deforestation and forest fragmentation when the expansions of agriculture and buildings were limited to already deforested areas, and when there was a rapid expansion of development, under influence of Sao Paulo city. Furthermore, the past(1962)road network was more important than the recent road network (1981) when explaining forest dynamics between 1981 and 2000, suggesting a long-term effect of roads. Roads are permanent scars on the landscape and facilitate deforestation and forest fragmentation due to increased accessibility and land valorization, which control land-use and land-cover dynamics. Topography directly affected deforestation, agriculture and road expansion, mainly between 1962 and 1981. Forest are thus in peril where there are more roads, and long-term conservation strategies should consider ways to mitigate roads as permanent landscape features and drivers facilitators of deforestation and forest fragmentation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multicenter Analysis of Glucocerebrosidase Mutations in Parkinson`s Disease

Background Recent studies indicate an increased frequency of mutations in the gene encoding glucocerebrosidase (GBA), a deficiency of which causes Gaucher`s disease, among patients with Parkinson`s disease. We aimed to ascertain the frequency of GBA mutations in an ethnically diverse group of patients with Parkinson`s disease. Methods Sixteen centers participated in our international, collaborative study: five from the Americas, six from Europe, two from Israel, and three from Asia. Each center genotyped a standard DNA panel to permit comparison of the genotyping results across centers. Genotypes and phenotypic data from a total of 5691 patients with Parkinson`s disease (780 Ashkenazi Jews) and 4898 controls (387 Ashkenazi Jews) were analyzed, with multivariate logistic-regression models and the Mantel-Haenszel procedure used to estimate odds ratios across centers. Results All 16 centers could detect two GBA mutations, L444P and N370S. Among Ashkenazi Jewish subjects, either mutation was found in 15% of patients and 3% of controls, and among non-Ashkenazi Jewish subjects, either mutation was found in 3% of patients and less than 1% of controls. GBA was fully sequenced for 1883 non-Ashkenazi Jewish patients, and mutations were identified in 7%, showing that limited mutation screening can miss half the mutant alleles. The odds ratio for any GBA mutation in patients versus controls was 5.43 across centers. As compared with patients who did not carry a GBA mutation, those with a GBA mutation presented earlier with the disease, were more likely to have affected relatives, and were more likely to have atypical clinical manifestations. Conclusions Data collected from 16 centers demonstrate that there is a strong association between GBA mutations and Parkinson`s disease.

Multilocus Analyses of Seven Candidate Genes Suggest Interacting Pathways for Obesity-Related Traits in Brazilian Populations

We investigated whether variants in major candidate genes for food intake and body weight regulation contribute to obesity-related traits under a multilocus perspective. We studied 375 Brazilian subjects from partially isolated African-derived populations (quilombos). Seven variants displaying conflicting results in previous reports and supposedly implicated in the susceptibility of obesity-related phenotypes were investigated: beta(2)-adrenergic receptor (ADRB2) (Arg16Gly), insulin induced gene 2 (INSIG2) (rs7566605), leptin (LEP) (A19G), LEP receptor (LEPR) (Gln223Arg), perilipin (PLIN) (6209T > C), peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma (PPARG) (Pro12Ala), and resistin (RETN) (-420C > G). Regression models as well as generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR) were employed to test the contribution of individual effects and higher-order interactions to BMI and waist-hip ratio (WHR) variation and risk of overweight/obesity. The best multilocus association signal identified in the quilombos was further examined in an independent sample of 334 Brazilian subjects of European ancestry. In quilombos, only the PPARG polymorphism displayed significant individual effects (WHR variation, P = 0.028). No association was observed either with the risk of overweight/obesity (BMI >= 25 kg/m(2)), risk of obesity alone (BMI >= 30 kg/m(2)) or BMI variation. However, GMDR analyses revealed an interaction between the LEPR and ADRB2 polymorphisms (P = 0.009) as well as a third-order effect involving the latter two variants plus INSIG2 (P = 0.034) with overweight/obesity. Assessment of the LEPR-ADRB2 interaction in the second sample indicated a marginally significant association (P = 0.0724), which was further verified to be limited to men (P = 0.0118). Together, our findings suggest evidence for a two-locus interaction between the LEPR Gln223Arg and ADRB2 Arg16Gly variants in the risk of overweight/obesity, and highlight further the importance of multilocus effects in the genetic component of obesity.