The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models. Part II: using AMIP runs to understand the heat flux feedback mechanisms

Several studies using ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that the atmospheric component plays a dominant role in the modelled El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To help elucidate these findings, the two main atmosphere feedbacks relevant to ENSO, the Bjerknes positive feedback (μ) and the heat flux negative feedback (α), are here analysed in nine AMIP runs of the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. We find that these models generally have improved feedbacks compared to the coupled runs which were analysed in part I of this study. The Bjerknes feedback, μ, is increased in most AMIP runs compared to the coupled run counterparts, and exhibits both positive and negative biases with respect to ERA40. As in the coupled runs, the shortwave and latent heat flux feedbacks are the two dominant components of α in the AMIP runs. We investigate the mechanisms behind these two important feedbacks, in particular focusing on the strong 1997–1998 El Niño. Biases in the shortwave flux feedback, α SW, are the main source of model uncertainty in α. Most models do not successfully represent the negative αSW in the East Pacific, primarily due to an overly strong low-cloud positive feedback in the far eastern Pacific. Biases in the cloud response to dynamical changes dominate the modelled α SW biases, though errors in the large-scale circulation response to sea surface temperature (SST) forcing also play a role. Analysis of the cloud radiative forcing in the East Pacific reveals model biases in low cloud amount and optical thickness which may affect α SW. We further show that the negative latent heat flux feedback, α LH, exhibits less diversity than α SW and is primarily driven by variations in the near-surface specific humidity difference. However, biases in both the near-surface wind speed and humidity response to SST forcing can explain the inter-model αLH differences.

The relationship between the North American summer monsoon, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone in HadAM3

In this study the relationship between the North American monsoon, the Californian sea surface temperature (SST) cold pool, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone is investigated using the Hadley Centre's atmospheric climate model, HadAM3. In 1996 Hoskins hypothesized that heating in the North American monsoon might be important for the maintenance of the summertime North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, since the monsoon heating may induce descent to the north-west of the monsoon in the descending eastern flank of the subtropical anticyclone. This descent is further enhanced by radiative cooling and is associated with equatorward surface winds parallel to the western coast of North America. These equatorward winds induce oceanic upwelling of cold water and contribute to the formation of the Californian SST cold pool, which may feed back on the anticyclone by further suppressing convection and inducing descent. More recently, Rodwell and Hoskins also investigated the global summer monsoon–subtropical anticyclone relationship. They examined the role that mountains play in impeding the progress of the low-level mid-latitude westerlies, either deflecting the westerlies northwards where they ascend along the sloping mid-latitude isentropes or deflecting them southwards forcing them to descend along the isentropes. In particular, the introduction of the Rockies into a primitive-equation model adiabatically induces descent in the eastern descending flank of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone. These hypothesized mechanisms have been investigated using HadAM3, focusing on the possible suppression of convection by the Californian SST cold pool, the response of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone to the strength of the North American monsoon and the ‘blocking’ of the mid-latitude westerlies by the Rocky Mountains. The role of the Rockies is examined by integrating the model with modified orography for the Rocky Mountains. Changing the height of the Rockies alters the circulation in a way consistent with the mechanism outlined above. Higher Rocky mountains force the westerlies southwards, inducing descent in the eastern flank of the subtropical anticyclone as the air descends along the sloping isentropes. The relationship between the North American monsoon and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone is investigated by suppressing the monsoon in HadAM3. The suppression of the monsoon is accomplished by increasing the surface albedo over Mexico, which induces anomalous ascent on the eastward flank of the subtropical anticyclone and anomalous polewards surface winds along the western coast of the North American continent, also providing support for the above hypothesis. The removal of the Californian SST cold pool, however, has a statistically insignificant effect on the model, suggesting that in this model the feedback of the SST cold pool on the eastern flank of the anticyclone is weak.

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

X-ray diffraction study of the influence of temperature on the structural correlations of poly(2-hydroxypropyl ether of bisphenol A)

The X-ray diffraction pattern of glassy poly(2-hydroxypropyl ether of bisphenol A) is studied at room temperature on oriented samples in order to associate its different peaks to different structural correlations. On the other hand, X-ray diffraction patterns have been obtained at different temperatures from Tg − 50 K up to Tg + 50 K for the above-mentioned polymer. Attention has been paid to the evolution with temperature of the position of the wide diffraction maximum corresponding to interchain correlations in the polymer. The temperature evolution of this parameter shows a marked discontinuity just at the glass transition temperature.

Temperature dependent SANS from ferritin and apoferritin

SANS from deuterated ferritin and apoferritin solutions over the temperature range 5 to 300 K is presented. Above the freezing point the SANS is well described by Percus-Yevick hard sphere packing. On freezing, highly correlated, partially crystallised, clusters of the proteins form and grow with decreasing temperature. The resulting scattering, characterised by a squared Lorentzian structure factor, indicates a spatial extent of 1000 8, for the protein clusters.

Temperature optimization of optical-phase conjugation in dye doped polymer-films

Experimental results of the temperature dependence of the nonlinear optical response of methyl red doped polymethylmethacrylate films in the range 20°C to 170°C are reported. It is found that the intensity of the phase conjugate signal resulting from degenerate four-wave mixing using pump and probe beams with parallel polarisation states increases dramatically on heating by a factor of ∼ 10, reaching a maximum at ∼ 100°C. The intensity of the phase conjugate signal for the case with crossed polarisation states of the pump and probe beams drops monotonically with increasing temperature. For both configurations the response time shortens with increasing temperature. The particular role of the polymer matrix in this temperature variation of the nonlinear optical response is discussed.

Temperature-tuned vector phase conjugation in azobenzene dye impregnated polymer films

Near-perfect vector phase conjugation was achieved at 488 nm in a methyl red dye impregnated polymethylmethacrylate film by employing a temperature tuning technique. Using a degenerate four-wave mixing geometry with vertically polarized counterpropagating pump beams, intensity and polarization gratings were written in the dye/polymer system using a vertically or horizontally polarized weak probe beam. Over a limited temperature range, as the sample was heated, the probe reflectivity from the polarization grating dropped but the reflectivity from the intensity grating rose sharply. At a sample temperature of approximately 50°C, the reflectivities of the gratings were measured to be equal and we confirmed that, at this temperature, the measured vector phase conjugate fidelity was very close to unity. We discuss a possible explanation of this effect.

Effect of dairy-based protein sources and temperature on growth, acidification and exopolysaccharide production of Bifidobacterium strains in skim milk

The aim of the present study was to find out the best growing conditions for exopolysaccharide (EPS) producing bifidobacteria, which improve their functionality in yoghurt-like products. Two Bifidobacterium strains were used in this study, Bifidobacterium longum subsp. infantis CCUG 52486 and Bifidobacterium infantis NCIMB 702205. In the first part of the study the effect of casein hydrolysate, lactalbumin hydrolysate, whey protein concentrate and whey protein isolate, added at 1.5% w/v in skim milk, was evaluated in terms of cell growth and EPS production; skim milk supplemented with yeast extract served as the control. Among the various nitrogen sources, casein hydrolysate (CH) showed the highest cell growth and EPS production for both strains after 18 h incubation and therefore it was selected for subsequent work. Based on fermentation experiments using different levels of CH (from 0.5 to 2.5% w/v) it was deduced that 1.5% (w/v) CH resulted in the highest EPS production, yielding 102 and 285 mg L− 1 for B. infantis NCIMB 702205 and B. longum subsp. infantis CCUG 52486, respectively. The influence of temperature on growth and EPS production of both strains was further evaluated at 25, 30, 37 and 42 °C for up to 48 h in milk supplemented with 1.5% (w/v) CH. The temperature had a significant effect on growth, acidification and EPS production. The maximum growth and EPS production were recorded at 37 °C for both strains, whereas no EPS production was observed at 25 °C. Lower EPS production for both strains were observed at 42 °C, which is the common temperature used in yoghurt manufacturing compared to that at 37 °C. The results showed that the culture conditions have a clear effect on the growth, acidification and EPS production, and more specifically, that skim milk supplemented with 1.5% (w/v) CH could be used as a substrate for the growth of EPS-producing bifidobacteria, at 37 °C for 24 h, resulting in the production of a low fat yoghurt-like product with improved functionality.

Seasonal temperature variability of the Neoglacial (3300–2500 BP) and Roman Warm Period (2500–1600 BP) reconstructed from oxygen isotope ratios of limpet shells (Patella vulgata), Northwest Scotland

Seasonal sea-surface temperaturevariability for the Neoglacial (3300–2500 BP) and Roman WarmPeriod (RWP; 2500–1600 BP), which correspond to the Bronze and Iron Ages, respectively, was estimated using oxygen isotope ratios obtained from high-resolution samples micromilled from radiocarbon-dated, archaeological limpet (Patella vulgata) shells. The coldest winter months recorded in Neoglacial shells averaged 6.6 ± 0.3 °C, and the warmest summer months averaged 14.7 ± 0.4 °C. One Neoglacial shell captured a year without a summer, which may have resulted from a dust veil from a volcanic eruption in the Katla volcanic system in Iceland. RWP shells record average winter and summer monthly temperatures of 6.3 ± 0.1 °C and 13.3 ± 0.3 °C, respectively. These results capture a cooling transition from the Neoglacial to RWP, which is further supported by earlier studies of pine history in Scotland, pollen type analyses in northeast Scotland, and European glacial events. The cooling transition observed at the boundary between the Neoglacial and RWP in our study also agrees with the abrupt climate deterioration at 2800–2700 BP (also referred to as the Subboreal/Subatlantic transition) and therefore may have been driven by decreased solar radiation and weakened North Atlantic Oscillation conditions.

The effect of nonlinearity on the variational assimilation of satellite observations using a simple column model

Cloud imagery is not currently used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extract the type of dynamical information that experienced forecasters have extracted subjectively for many years. For example, rapidly developing mid-latitude cyclones have characteristic signatures in the cloud imagery that are most fully appreciated from a sequence of images rather than from a single image. The Met Office is currently developing a technique to extract dynamical development information from satellite imagery using their full incremental 4D-Var (four-dimensional variational data assimilation) system. We investigate a simplified form of this technique in a fully nonlinear framework. We convert information on the vertical wind field, w(z), and profiles of temperature, T(z, t), and total water content, qt (z, t), as functions of height, z, and time, t, to a single brightness temperature by defining a 2D (vertical and time) variational assimilation testbed. The profiles of w, T and qt are updated using a simple vertical advection scheme. We define a basic cloud scheme to obtain the fractional cloud amount and, when combined with the temperature field, we convert this information into a brightness temperature, having developed a simple radiative transfer scheme. With the exception of some matrix inversion routines, all our code is developed from scratch. Throughout the development process we test all aspects of our 2D assimilation system, and then run identical twin experiments to try and recover information on the vertical velocity, from a sequence of observations of brightness temperature. This thesis contains a comprehensive description of our nonlinear models and assimilation system, and the first experimental results.

Effect of elevated CO2 and high temperature on seed-set and grain quality of rice

Hybrid vigour may help overcome the negative effects of climate change in rice. A popular rice hybrid (IR75217H), a heat-tolerant check (N22), and a mega-variety (IR64) were tested for tolerance of seed-set and grain quality to high-temperature stress at anthesis at ambient and elevated [CO2]. Under an ambient air temperature of 29 °C (tissue temperature 28.3 °C), elevated [CO2] increased vegetative and reproductive growth, including seed yield in all three genotypes. Seed-set was reduced by high temperature in all three genotypes, with the hybrid and IR64 equally affected and twice as sensitive as the tolerant cultivar N22. No interaction occurred between temperature and [CO2] for seed-set. The hybrid had significantly more anthesed spikelets at all temperatures than IR64 and at 29 °C this resulted in a large yield advantage. At 35 °C (tissue temperature 32.9 °C) the hybrid had a higher seed yield than IR64 due to the higher spikelet number, but at 38 °C (tissue temperature 34–35 °C) there was no yield advantage. Grain gel consistency in the hybrid and IR64 was reduced by high temperatures only at elevated [CO2], while the percentage of broken grains increased from 10% at 29 °C to 35% at 38 °C in the hybrid. It is concluded that seed-set of hybrids is susceptible to short episodes of high temperature during anthesis, but that at intermediate tissue temperatures of 32.9 °C higher spikelet number (yield potential) of the hybrid can compensate to some extent. If the heat tolerance from N22 or other tolerant donors could be transferred into hybrids, yield could be maintained under the higher temperatures predicted with climate change.

The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate

Current state-of-the-art climate models fail to capture accurately the path of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. This leads to a warm bias near the North American coast, where the modelled Gulf Stream separates from the coast further north, and a cold anomaly to the east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, where the North Atlantic Current remains too zonal in this region. Using an atmosphere-only model forced with the sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the North Atlantic, we consider the impact they have on the mean state and the variability in the North Atlantic European region in winter. Our results show that the SST errors produce a mean sea-level pressure response that is similar in magnitude and pattern to the atmospheric circulation errors in the coupled climate model. The work also suggests that errors in the coupled model storm tracks and North Atlantic Oscillation, compared to reanalysis data, can also be explained partly by these SST errors. Our results suggest that both the error in the Gulf Stream separation location and the path of the North Atlantic Current around the Grand Banks play important roles in affecting the atmospheric circulation. Reducing these coupled model errors could improve significantly the representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic and European region.