Baroclinic stationary waves in aquaplanet models

An aquaplanet model is used to study the nature of the highly persistent low-frequency waves that have been observed in models forced by zonally symmetric boundary conditions. Using the Hayashi spectral analysis of the extratropical waves, the authors find that a quasi-stationary wave 5 belongs to a wave packet obeying a well-defined dispersion relation with eastward group velocity. The components of the dispersion relation with k ≥ 5 baroclinically convert eddy available potential energy into eddy kinetic energy, whereas those with k < 5 are baroclinically neutral. In agreement with Green’s model of baroclinic instability, wave 5 is weakly unstable, and the inverse energy cascade, which had been previously proposed as a main forcing for this type of wave, only acts as a positive feedback on its predominantly baroclinic energetics. The quasi-stationary wave is reinforced by a phase lock to an analogous pattern in the tropical convection, which provides further amplification to the wave. It is also found that the Pedlosky bounds on the phase speed of unstable waves provide guidance in explaining the latitudinal structure of the energy conversion, which is shown to be more enhanced where the zonal westerly surface wind is weaker. The wave’s energy is then trapped in the waveguide created by the upper tropospheric jet stream. In agreement with Green’s theory, as the equator-to-pole SST difference is reduced, the stationary marginally stable component shifts toward higher wavenumbers, while wave 5 becomes neutral and westward propagating. Some properties of the aquaplanet quasi-stationary waves are found to be in interesting agreement with a low frequency wave observed by Salby during December–February in the Southern Hemisphere so that this perspective on low frequency variability, apart from its value in terms of basic geophysical fluid dynamics, might be of specific interest for studying the earth’s atmosphere.

A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

Idealized model for changes in equilibrium temperature, mixed layer depth, and boundary layer cloud over land in a doubled CO2 climate

An idealized equilibrium model for the undisturbed partly cloudy boundary layer (BL) is used as a framework to explore the coupling of the energy, water, and carbon cycles over land in midlatitudes and show the sensitivity to the clear‐sky shortwave flux, the midtropospheric temperature, moisture, CO2, and subsidence. The changes in the surface fluxes, the BL equilibrium, and cloud cover are shown for a warmer, doubled CO2 climate. Reduced stomatal conductance in a simple vegetation model amplifies the background 2 K ocean temperature rise to an (unrealistically large) 6 K increase in near‐surface temperature over land, with a corresponding drop of near‐surface relative humidity of about 19%, and a rise of cloud base of about 70 hPa. Cloud changes depend strongly on changes of mean subsidence; but evaporative fraction (EF) decreases. EF is almost uniquely related to mixed layer (ML) depth, independent of background forcing climate. This suggests that it might be possible to infer EF for heterogeneous landscapes from ML depth. The asymmetry of increased evaporation over the oceans and reduced transpiration over land increases in a warmer doubled CO2 climate.

Remote sensing of cloud properties using ground-based measurements of zenith radiance

We have conducted the first extensive field test of two new methods to retrieve optical properties for overhead clouds that range from patchy to overcast. The methods use measurements of zenith radiance at 673 and 870 nm wavelengths and require the presence of green vegetation in the surrounding area. The test was conducted at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Oklahoma site during September–November 2004. These methods work because at 673 nm (red) and 870 nm (near infrared (NIR)), clouds have nearly identical optical properties, while vegetated surfaces reflect quite differently. The first method, dubbed REDvsNIR, retrieves not only cloud optical depth τ but also radiative cloud fraction. Because of the 1-s time resolution of our radiance measurements, we are able for the first time to capture changes in cloud optical properties at the natural timescale of cloud evolution. We compared values of τ retrieved by REDvsNIR to those retrieved from downward shortwave fluxes and from microwave brightness temperatures. The flux method generally underestimates τ relative to the REDvsNIR method. Even for overcast but inhomogeneous clouds, differences between REDvsNIR and the flux method can be as large as 50%. In addition, REDvsNIR agreed to better than 15% with the microwave method for both overcast and broken clouds. The second method, dubbed COUPLED, retrieves τ by combining zenith radiances with fluxes. While extra information from fluxes was expected to improve retrievals, this is not always the case. In general, however, the COUPLED and REDvsNIR methods retrieve τ to within 15% of each other.

Precipitation and latent heating distributions from satellite passive microwave radiometry. Part I: improved method and uncertainties

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and nonconvective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud-resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain-rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in TMI instantaneous rain-rate estimates at 0.5°-resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm h−1 to 20% at 14 mm h−1. Errors in collocated spaceborne radar rain-rate estimates are roughly 50%–80% of the TMI errors at this resolution. The estimated algorithm random error in TMI rain rates at monthly, 2.5° resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm day−1) in comparison with the random error resulting from infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8%–35% at the same rain rate). Percentage errors resulting from sampling decrease with increasing rain rate, and sampling errors in latent heating rates follow the same trend. Averaging over 3 months reduces sampling errors in rain rates to 6%–15% at 5 mm day−1, with proportionate reductions in latent heating sampling errors.

The effect of surface heterogeneity on cloud absorption estimates

This study presents a systematic and quantitative analysis of the effect of inhomogeneous surface albedo on shortwave cloud absorption estimates. We used 3D radiative transfer modeling over a checkerboard surface albedo to calculate cloud absorption. We have found that accounting for surface heterogeneity enhances cloud absorption. However, the enhancement is not sufficient to explain the reported difference between measured and modeled cloud absorption.

Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy

Changes in atmospheric temperature have a particular importance in climate research because climate models consistently predict a distinctive vertical profile of trends. With increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the surface and troposphere are consistently projected to warm, with an enhancement of that warming in the tropical upper troposphere. Hence, attempts to detect this distinct ‘fingerprint’ have been a focus for observational studies. The topic acquired heightened importance following the 1990 publication of an analysis of satellite data which challenged the reality of the projected tropospheric warming. This review documents the evolution over the last four decades of understanding of tropospheric temperature trends and their likely causes. Particular focus is given to the difficulty of producing homogenized datasets, with which to derive trends, from both radiosonde and satellite observing systems, because of the many systematic changes over time. The value of multiple independent analyses is demonstrated. Paralleling developments in observational datasets, increased computer power and improved understanding of climate forcing mechanisms have led to refined estimates of temperature trends from a wide range of climate models and a better understanding of internal variability. It is concluded that there is no reasonable evidence of a fundamental disagreement between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: metrics

The transport sector emits a wide variety of gases and aerosols, with distinctly different characteristics which influence climate directly and indirectly via chemical and physical processes. Tools that allow these emissions to be placed on some kind of common scale in terms of their impact on climate have a number of possible uses such as: in agreements and emission trading schemes; when considering potential trade-offs between changes in emissions resulting from technological or operational developments; and/or for comparing the impact of different environmental impacts of transport activities. Many of the non-CO2 emissions from the transport sector are short-lived substances, not currently covered by the Kyoto Protocol. There are formidable difficulties in developing metrics and these are particularly acute for such short-lived species. One difficulty concerns the choice of an appropriate structure for the metric (which may depend on, for example, the design of any climate policy it is intended to serve) and the associated value judgements on the appropriate time periods to consider; these choices affect the perception of the relative importance of short- and long-lived species. A second difficulty is the quantification of input parameters (due to underlying uncertainty in atmospheric processes). In addition, for some transport-related emissions, the values of metrics (unlike the gases included in the Kyoto Protocol) depend on where and when the emissions are introduced into the atmosphere – both the regional distribution and, for aircraft, the distribution as a function of altitude, are important. In this assessment of such metrics, we present Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) as these have traditionally been used in the implementation of climate policy. We also present Global Temperature Change Potentials (GTPs) as an alternative metric, as this, or a similar metric may be more appropriate for use in some circumstances. We use radiative forcings and lifetimes from the literature to derive GWPs and GTPs for the main transport-related emissions, and discuss the uncertainties in these estimates. We find large variations in metric (GWP and GTP) values for NOx, mainly due to the dependence on location of emissions but also because of inter-model differences and differences in experimental design. For aerosols we give only global-mean values due to an inconsistent picture amongst available studies regarding regional dependence. The uncertainty in the presented metric values reflects the current state of understanding; the ranking of the various components with respect to our confidence in the given metric values is also given. While the focus is mostly on metrics for comparing the climate impact of emissions, many of the issues are equally relevant for stratospheric ozone depletion metrics, which are also discussed.

The sea-level conundrum: case studies from palaeo-archives

Uncertainties in sea-level projections for the 21st century have focused ice sheet modelling efforts to include the processes that are thought to be contributing to the recently observed rapid changes at ice sheet margins. This effort is still in its infancy, however, leaving us unable to make reliable predictions of ice sheet responses to a warming climate if such glacier accelerations were to increase in size and frequency. The geological record, however, has long identified examples of nonlinear ice sheet response to climate forcing (Shackleton NJ, Opdyke ND. 1973. Oxygen isotope and paleomagnetic stratigraphy of equatorial Pacific core V28–239, late Pliocene to latest Pleistocene. Geological Society of America Memoirs145: 449–464; Fairbanks RG. 1989. A 17,000 year glacio-eustatic sea level record: influence of glacial melting rates on the Younger Dryas event and deep ocean circulation. Nature342: 637–642; Bard E, Hamelin B, Arnold M, Montaggioni L, Cabioch G, Faure G, Rougerie F. 1996. Sea level record from Tahiti corals and the timing of deglacial meltwater discharge. Nature382: 241–244), thus suggesting an alternative strategy for constraining the rate and magnitude of sea-level change that we might expect by the end of this century. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Emulating AOGCM results using simple climate models

Three simple climate models (SCMs) are calibrated using simulations from atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). In addition to using two conventional SCMs, results from a third simpler model developed specifically for this study are obtained. An easy to implement and comprehensive iterative procedure is applied that optimises the SCM emulation of global-mean surface temperature and total ocean heat content, and, if available in the SCM, of surface temperature over land, over the ocean and in both hemispheres, and of the global-mean ocean temperature profile. The method gives best-fit estimates as well as uncertainty intervals for the different SCM parameters. For the calibration, AOGCM simulations with two different types of forcing scenarios are used: pulse forcing simulations performed with 2 AOGCMs and gradually changing forcing simulations from 15 AOGCMs obtained within the framework of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The method is found to work well. For all possible combinations of SCMs and AOGCMs the emulation of AOGCM results could be improved. The obtained SCM parameters depend both on the AOGCM data and the type of forcing scenario. SCMs with a poor representation of the atmosphere thermal inertia are better able to emulate AOGCM results from gradually changing forcing than from pulse forcing simulations. Correct simultaneous emulation of both atmospheric temperatures and the ocean temperature profile by the SCMs strongly depends on the representation of the temperature gradient between the atmosphere and the mixed layer. Introducing climate sensitivities that are dependent on the forcing mechanism in the SCMs allows the emulation of AOGCM responses to carbon dioxide and solar insolation forcings equally well. Also, some SCM parameters are found to be very insensitive to the fitting, and the reduction of their uncertainty through the fitting procedure is only marginal, while other parameters change considerably. The very simple SCM is found to reproduce the AOGCM results as well as the other two comparably more sophisticated SCMs.

Photochromic dithienylethene derivatives containing Ru(II) or Os(II) metal units. Sensitized photocyclization from a triplet state

Efficient photocyclization from a low-lying triplet state is reported for a photochromic dithienylperfluorocyclopentene with Ru(bpy)(3) units attached via a phenylene linker to the thiophene rings. The ring-closure reaction in the nanosecond domain is sensitized by the metal complexes. Upon photoexcitation into the lowest Ru-to-bpy (MLCT)-M-1 state followed by intersystem crossing to emitting (MLCT)-M-3 states, photoreactive (IL)-I-3 states are populated by an efficient energy-transfer process. The involvement of these (IL)-I-3 states explains the quantum yield of the photocyclization, which is independent of the excitation wavelength but decreases strongly in the presence of dioxygen. This behavior differs substantially from the photocyclization of the nonemissive dithienylperfluorocyclopentene free ligand, which occurs from the lowest (IL)-I-1 state on a picosecond time scale and is insensitive to oxygen quenching. Cyclic voltammetric studies have also been performed to gain further insight into the energetics of the system. The very high photocyclization quantum yields, far above 0.5 in both cases, are ascribed to the strong steric repulsion between the bulky substituents on the dithienylperfluorocyclopentene bridge bearing the chelating bipyridine sites or the Ru(bpy)(3) moieties, forcing the system to adopt nearly exclusively the reactive antiparallel conformation. In contrast, replacement of both Ru(II) centers by Os(II) completely prevents the photocyclization reaction upon light excitation into the low-lying Os-to-bpy (MLCT)-M-1 state. The photoreaction can only be triggered by optical population of the higher lying (IL)-I-1 excited state of the central photochromic unit, but its yield is low due to efficient energy transfer to the luminescent lowest (MLCT)-M-3 state.

Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50–70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase.

Transport in the low-latitude tropopause zone diagnosed using particle trajectories

Recent literature has described a “transition zone” between the average top of deep convection in the Tropics and the stratosphere. Here transport across this zone is investigated using an offline trajectory model. Particles were advected by the resolved winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses. For each boreal winter clusters of particles were released in the upper troposphere over the four main regions of tropical deep convection (Indonesia, central Pacific, South America, and Africa). Most particles remain in the troposphere, descending on average for every cluster. The horizontal components of 5-day trajectories are strongly influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but the Lagrangian average descent does not have a clear ENSO signature. Tropopause crossing locations are first identified by recording events when trajectories from the same release regions cross the World Meteorological Organization lapse rate tropopause. Most crossing events occur 5–15 days after release, and 30-day trajectories are sufficiently long to estimate crossing number densities. In a further two experiments slight excursions across the lapse rate tropopause are differentiated from the drift deeper into the stratosphere by defining the “tropopause zone” as a layer bounded by the average potential temperature of the lapse rate tropopause and the profile temperature minimum. Transport upward across this zone is studied using forward trajectories released from the lower bound and back trajectories arriving at the upper bound. Histograms of particle potential temperature (θ) show marked differences between the transition zone, where there is a slow spread in θ values about a peak that shifts slowly upward, and the troposphere below 350 K. There forward trajectories experience slow radiative cooling interspersed with bursts of convective heating resulting in a well-mixed distribution. In contrast θ histograms for back trajectories arriving in the stratosphere have two distinct peaks just above 300 and 350 K, indicating the sharp change from rapid convective heating in the well-mixed troposphere to slow ascent in the transition zone. Although trajectories slowly cross the tropopause zone throughout the Tropics, all three experiments show that most trajectories reaching the stratosphere from the lower troposphere within 30 days do so over the west Pacific warm pool. This preferred location moves about 30°–50° farther east in an El Niño year (1982/83) and about 30° farther west in a La Niña year (1988/89). These results could have important implications for upper-troposphere–lower-stratosphere pollution and chemistry studies.

The 11-yr solar cycle in ERA-40 data: an update to 2008

Multiple linear regression is used to diagnose the signal of the 11-yr solar cycle in zonal-mean zonal wind and temperature in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset. The results of previous studies are extended to 2008 using data from ECMWF operational analyses. This analysis confirms that the solar signal found in previous studies is distinct from that of volcanic aerosol forcing resulting from the eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, but it highlights the potential for confusion of the solar signal and lower-stratospheric temperature trends. A correction to an error that is present in previous results of Crooks and Gray, stemming from the use of a single daily analysis field rather than monthly averaged data, is also presented.

De-agrarianization, re-agrarianization and local economic development: re-orientating livelihoods in African artisanal mining communities

This article contributes to the debate on livelihood diversification in rural sub-Saharan Africa, focusing specifically on the growing economic importance of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) in the region. The precipitous decline in the value of many export crops and the removal of subsidies on crucial inputs such as fertilizers have made smallholder production unviable, forcing many farmers to ‘branch out’ into non-farm activities to supplement their incomes. One of the more popular destinations for poor farmers is the low-tech ASM sector which, because of its low barriers to entry, has absorbed millions of rural Africans over the past two decades, the majority of whom are engaged in the extraction of near-surface mineral deposits located on concessions that have been demarcated to multinational corporations. The efforts made hitherto to control this illegal mining activity, both through force and regulation, however, have had little effect, forcing many of the region’s governments and private sector partners to ‘re-think’ their approaches. One strategy that has gained considerable attention throughout the region is intensified support for agrarian-orientated activities, many of which, despite the problems plaguing smallholder agricultural sector and challenges with making it more economically sustainable, are being lauded as appropriate ‘alternative’ sources of employment to artisanal mining. After examining where artisanal mining fits into the de-agrarianization ‘puzzle’ in sub-Saharan Africa, the article critiques the efficacy of ‘re-agrarianization’ as a strategy for addressing the region’s illegal mining problem. A case study of Ghana is used to shed further light on these issues.