Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

Factors associated with health risk behavior among school children in urban Vietnam

Background Health risk behavior among young people is a public health problem in Vietnam. In addition, road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for those aged 15–29 years. The consequences can be devastating for adolescents and their families, and can create a significant economic burden on society. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify protective and risk factors that may influence three health risk behaviors among school children: suicidal thinking (ST), drinking alcohol (DA), and underage motorbike driving (MD). Methods A cross-sectional survey of 972 adolescents (aged 12–15 years) was conducted in two secondary schools in Hanoi, Vietnam. The schools were purposely selected, one each from the inner city and a suburban area, from which classes (grade 6 to 8) were randomly selected. All students attending classes on survey days took part in the survey. The anonymous, self-completed questionnaire included measures of risk behavior, school connectedness, parental bonding, and other factors. Multivariable regression models were used to examine associations between the independent variables and the three health risk behaviors controlling for confounding factors. Results Young people in the inner city school reported a higher prevalence of all three risk behaviors than those in the suburban area (ST: 16.1% [95% confidence interval, or CI, 12.9–19.3] versus 4.6% [95% CI 2.7–6.5], p<0.001; DA: 20.3% [95% CI 16.8–23.8] versus 8.3% [95% CI 5.8–10.8], p<0.001, and MD: 10.1% [95% CI 7.4–12.8] versus 5.7% [95% CI 3.6–7.8], p<0.01). School connectedness and mother and father care appeared to be significant protective factors. For males, bullying in school was associated with suicidal thoughts, whereas for both males and females, school connectedness may be protective against suicidal ideation. Conclusion This study supports findings from other nations regarding suicidal thoughts and alcohol use, and appears to be one of the first to examine risk and protective factors forMD. Health promotion within schools should be introduced to improve students’ feelings of connectedness in combination with communication and education campaigns focusing on parental care and engaging teachers for the promotion of safer, supportive school environments.

Prevalence and risk factors for oral HPV infection in young Australians

The prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV)–associated head and neck cancers is increasing, but the prevalence of oral HPV infection in the wider community remains unknown. We sought to determine the prevalence of, and identify risk factors for, oral HPV infection in a sample of young, healthy Australians. For this study, we recruited 307 Australian university students (18–35 years). Participants reported anonymously about basic characteristics, sexual behaviour, and alcohol, tobacco and illicit drugs use. We collected oral rinse samples from all participants for HPV testing and typing. Seven of 307 (2.3%) students tested positive for oral HPV infection (3 HPV-18, one each of HPV-16, -67, -69, -90), and six of them were males (p = 0.008). Compared to HPV negative students, those with oral HPV infection were more likely to have received oral sex from more partners in their lifetime (p = 0.0004) and in the last year (p = 0.008). We found no statistically significant associations with alcohol consumption, smoking or numbers of partners for passionate kissing or sexual intercourse. In conclusion, oral HPV infection was associated with male gender and receiving oral sex in our sample of young Australians.

Environmental health risk assessment of dioxin in foods at the two most severe dioxin hot spots in Vietnam

Background Bien Hoa and Da Nang airbases were bulk storages for Agent Orange during the Vietnam War and currently are the two most severe dioxin hot spots. Objectives This study assesses the health risk of exposure to dioxin through foods for local residents living in seven wards surrounding these airbases. Methods This study follows the Australian Environmental Health Risk Assessment Framework to assess the health risk of exposure to dioxin in foods. Forty-six pooled samples of commonly consumed local foods were collected and analyzed for dioxin/furans. A food frequency and Knowledge–Attitude–Practice survey was also undertaken at 1000 local households, various stakeholders were involved and related publications were reviewed. Results Total dioxin/furan concentrations in samples of local “high-risk” foods (e.g. free range chicken meat and eggs, ducks, freshwater fish, snail and beef) ranged from 3.8 pg TEQ/g to 95 pg TEQ/g, while in “low-risk” foods (e.g. caged chicken meat and eggs, seafoods, pork, leafy vegetables, fruits, and rice) concentrations ranged from 0.03 pg TEQ/g to 6.1 pg TEQ/g. Estimated daily intake of dioxin if people who did not consume local high risk foods ranged from 3.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day to 6.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day (Bien Hoa) and from 1.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day to 4.3 pg TEQ/kg bw/day (Da Nang). Consumption of local high risk foods resulted in extremely high dioxin daily intakes (60.4–102.8 pg TEQ/kg bw/day in Bien Hoa; 27.0–148.0 pg TEQ/kg bw/day in Da Nang). Conclusions Consumption of local “high-risk” foods increases dioxin daily intakes far above the WHO recommended TDI (1–4 pg TEQ/kg bw/day). Practicing appropriate preventive measures is necessary to significantly reduce exposure and health risk.

Dioxin risk reduction programme at the most severe dioxin hot spot in Vietnam: Residual knowledge, attitude and practices five years post intervention

Bien Hoa Airbase was one of the bulk storage and supply facilities for defoliants during the Vietnam War. Environmental and biological samples taken around the airbase have elevated levels of dioxin. In 2007, a pre-intervention knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey of local residents living in Trung Dung and Tan Phong wards was undertaken regarding appropriate strategies to reduce dioxin exposure. A risk reduction programme was implemented in 2008 and post-intervention KAP surveys were undertaken in 2009 and 2013 to evaluate the longer term impacts. Quantitative assessment was undertaken via a KAP survey in 2013 among 600 local residents randomly selected from the two intervention wards and one control ward (Buu Long). Eight in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions were also undertaken for qualitative assessment. Most programme activities had ceased and dioxin risk communication activities had not been integrated into local routine health education programmes; however, main results generally remained and were better than that in Buu Long. In total, 48.2% of households undertook measures to prevent exposure, higher than those in pre- and post-intervention surveys (25.8% and 39.7%) and the control ward (7.7%). Migration and the sensitive nature of dioxin issues were the main challenges for the programme's sustainability

Genome-wide association analysis identifies 11 risk variants associated with the asthma with hay fever phenotype

Background To date, no genome-wide association study (GWAS) has considered the combined phenotype of asthma with hay fever. Previous analyses of family data from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study provide evidence that this phenotype has a stronger genetic cause than asthma without hay fever. Objective We sought to perform a GWAS of asthma with hay fever to identify variants associated with having both diseases. Methods We performed a meta-analysis of GWASs comparing persons with both physician-diagnosed asthma and hay fever (n = 6,685) with persons with neither disease (n = 14,091). Results At genome-wide significance, we identified 11 independent variants associated with the risk of having asthma with hay fever, including 2 associations reaching this level of significance with allergic disease for the first time: ZBTB10 (rs7009110; odds ratio [OR], 1.14; P = 4 × 10−9) and CLEC16A (rs62026376; OR, 1.17; P = 1 × 10−8). The rs62026376:C allele associated with increased asthma with hay fever risk has been found to be associated also with decreased expression of the nearby DEXI gene in monocytes. The 11 variants were associated with the risk of asthma and hay fever separately, but the estimated associations with the individual phenotypes were weaker than with the combined asthma with hay fever phenotype. A variant near LRRC32 was a stronger risk factor for hay fever than for asthma, whereas the reverse was observed for variants in/near GSDMA and TSLP. Single nucleotide polymorphisms with suggestive evidence for association with asthma with hay fever risk included rs41295115 near IL2RA (OR, 1.28; P = 5 × 10−7) and rs76043829 in TNS1 (OR, 1.23; P = 2 × 10−6). Conclusion By focusing on the combined phenotype of asthma with hay fever, variants associated with the risk of allergic disease can be identified with greater efficiency.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies 13 new risk loci for schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is an idiopathic mental disorder with a heritable component and a substantial public health impact. We conducted a multi-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) for schizophrenia beginning with a Swedish national sample (5,001 cases and 6,243 controls) followed by meta-Analysis with previous schizophrenia GWAS (8,832 cases and 12,067 controls) and finally by replication of SNPs in 168 genomic regions in independent samples (7,413 cases, 19,762 controls and 581 parent-offspring trios). We identified 22 loci associated at genome-wide significance; 13 of these are new, and 1 was previously implicated in bipolar disorder. Examination of candidate genes at these loci suggests the involvement of neuronal calcium signaling. We estimate that 8,300 independent, mostly common SNPs (95% credible interval of 6,300-10,200 SNPs) contribute to risk for schizophrenia and that these collectively account for at least 32% of the variance in liability. Common genetic variation has an important role in the etiology of schizophrenia, and larger studies will allow more detailed understanding of this disorder.

A new regulatory variant in the interleukin-6 receptor gene associates with asthma risk

The main genetic determinant of soluble interleukin 6 receptor (sIL-6R) levels is the missense variant rs2228145 that maps to the cleavage site of IL-6R. For each Ala allele, sIL-6R serum levels increase by ∼20 ng ml -1 and asthma risk by 1.09-fold. However, this variant does not explain the total heritability for sIL-6R levels. Additional independent variants in IL6R may therefore contribute to variation in sIL-6R levels and influence asthma risk. We imputed 471 variants in IL6R and tested these for association with sIL-6R serum levels in 360 individuals. An intronic variant (rs12083537) was associated with sIL-6R levels independently of rs4129267 (P=0.0005), a proxy single-nucleotide polymorphism for rs2228145. A significant and consistent association for rs12083537 was observed in a replication panel of 354 individuals (P=0.033). Each rs12083537:A allele increased sIL-6R serum levels by 2.4 ng ml -1. Analysis of mRNA levels in two cohorts did not identify significant associations between rs12083537 and IL6R transcription levels. On the other hand, results from 16 705 asthmatics and 30 809 controls showed that the rs12083537:A allele increased asthma risk by 1.04-fold (P=0.0419). Genetic risk scores based on IL6R regulatory variants may prove useful in explaining variation in clinical response to tocilizumab, an anti-IL-6R monoclonal antibody.

Identification of multiple risk variants for ankylosing spondylitis through high-density genotyping of immune-related loci

Ankylosing spondylitis is a common, highly heritable inflammatory arthritis affecting primarily the spine and pelvis. In addition to HLA-B*27 alleles, 12 loci have previously been identified that are associated with ankylosing spondylitis in populations of European ancestry, and 2 associated loci have been identified in Asians. In this study, we used the Illumina Immunochip microarray to perform a case-control association study involving 10,619 individuals with ankylosing spondylitis (cases) and 15,145 controls. We identified 13 new risk loci and 12 additional ankylosing spondylitis-associated haplotypes at 11 loci. Two ankylosing spondylitis-associated regions have now been identified encoding four aminopeptidases that are involved in peptide processing before major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I presentation. Protective variants at two of these loci are associated both with reduced aminopeptidase function and with MHC class I cell surface expression.

Fine mapping and replication of genetic risk Loci in primary sclerosing cholangitis

Background and aims. Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease characterized by progressive inflammation and fibrosis of the bile ducts eventually leading to biliary cirrhosis. Recent genetic studies in PSC have identified associations at 2q13, 2q35, 3p21, 4q27, 13q31 and suggestive association at 10p15. The aim of this study was to further characterize and refine the genetic architecture of PSC. Methods. We analyzed previously reported associated SNPs at four of these non-HLA loci and 59 SNPs tagging the IL-2/IL-21 (4q27) and IL2RA (10p15) loci in 992 UK PSC cases and 5162 healthy UK controls. Results. The most associated SNPs identified were rs3197999 (3p21 (MST1), p = 1.9 × 10 -6, OR A vs G = 1.28, 95% CI (1.16-1.42)); rs4147359 (10p15 (IL2RA), p = 2.6 × 10 -4, OR A vs G = 1.20, 95% CI (1.09-1.33)) and rs12511287 (4q27 (IL-2/IL-21), p = 3.0 × 10 -4, OR A vs T = 1.21, 95% CI (1.09-1.35)). In addition, we performed a meta-analysis for selected SNPs using published summary statistics from recent studies. We observed genome-wide significance for rs3197999 (3p21 (MST1), P combined = 3.8 × 10 -12) and rs4147359 (10p15 (IL2RA), P combined = 1.5 × 10 -8). Conclusion. We have for the first time confirmed the association of PSC with genetic variants at 10p15 (IL2RA) locus at genome-wide significance and replicated the associations at MST1 and IL-2/IL-21 loci in a large homogeneous UK population. These results strongly implicate the role of IL-2/IL2RA pathway in PSC and provide further confirmation of MST1 association. © Informa Healthcare.

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis. © 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Identification of IL6R and chromosome 11q13.5 as risk loci for asthma

We aimed to identify novel genetic variants affecting asthma risk, since these might provide novel insights into molecular mechanisms underlying the disease. We did a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 2669 physician-diagnosed asthmatics and 4528 controls from Australia. Seven loci were prioritised for replication after combining our results with those from the GABRIEL consortium (n=26 475), and these were tested in an additional 25 358 independent samples from four in-silico cohorts. Quantitative multi-marker scores of genetic load were constructed on the basis of results from the GABRIEL study and tested for association with asthma in our Australian GWAS dataset. Two loci were confirmed to associate with asthma risk in the replication cohorts and reached genome-wide significance in the combined analysis of all available studies (n=57 800): rs4129267 (OR 1·09, combined p= 2·4×10-8) in the interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) gene and rs7130588 (OR 1·09, p=1·8×10-8) on chromosome 11q13.5 near the leucine-rich repeat containing 32 gene (LRRC32, also known as GARP). The 11q13.5 locus was significantly associated with atopic status among asthmatics (OR 1·33, p=7×10-4), suggesting that it is a risk factor for allergic but not non-allergic asthma. Multi-marker association results are consistent with a highly polygenic contribution to asthma risk, including loci with weak effects that might be shared with other immune-related diseases, such as NDFIP1, HLA-B, LPP, and BACH2. The IL6R association further supports the hypothesis that cytokine signalling dysregulation affects asthma risk, and raises the possibility that an IL6R antagonist (tocilizumab) may be effective to treat the disease, perhaps in a genotype-dependent manner. Results for the 11q13.5 locus suggest that it directly increases the risk of allergic sensitisation which, in turn, increases the risk of subsequent development of asthma. Larger or more functionally focused studies are needed to characterise the many loci with modest effects that remain to be identified for asthma. National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. A full list of funding sources is provided in the webappendix. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Genetic determinants of bone density and fracture risk: State of the art and future directions

Context: Osteoporosis is a common, highly heritable condition that causes substantial morbidity and mortality, the etiopathogenesis of which is poorly understood. Genetic studies are making increasingly rapid progress in identifying the genes involved. Evidence Acquisition and Synthesis: In this review, we will summarize the current understanding of the genetics of osteoporosis based on publications from PubMed from the year 1987 onward. Conclusions: Most genes involved in osteoporosis identified to date encode components of known pathways involved in bone synthesis or resorption, but as the field progresses, new pathways are being identified. Only a small proportion of the total genetic variation involved in osteoporosis has been identified, and new approaches will be required to identify most of the remaining genes.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies 56 bone mineral density loci and reveals 14 loci associated with risk of fracture

Bone mineral density (BMD) is the most widely used predictor of fracture risk. We performed the largest meta-analysis to date on lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD, including 17 genome-wide association studies and 32,961 individuals of European and east Asian ancestry. We tested the top BMD-associated markers for replication in 50,933 independent subjects and for association with risk of low-trauma fracture in 31,016 individuals with a history of fracture (cases) and 102,444 controls. We identified 56 loci (32 new) associated with BMD at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8). Several of these factors cluster within the RANK-RANKL-OPG, mesenchymal stem cell differentiation, endochondral ossification and Wnt signaling pathways. However, we also discovered loci that were localized to genes not known to have a role in bone biology. Fourteen BMD-associated loci were also associated with fracture risk (P < 5 × 10−4, Bonferroni corrected), of which six reached P < 5 × 10−8, including at 18p11.21 (FAM210A), 7q21.3 (SLC25A13), 11q13.2 (LRP5), 4q22.1 (MEPE), 2p16.2 (SPTBN1) and 10q21.1 (DKK1). These findings shed light on the genetic architecture and pathophysiological mechanisms underlying BMD variation and fracture susceptibility.

Dietary and exercise interventions to improve quality of life, metabolic risk factors and androgen deficiency symptoms in men with prostate cancer undergoing androgen deprivation therapy

Introduction Lifestyle interventions might be useful in the management of adverse effects of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in men with prostate cancer. Objectives To examine the effects of dietary and exercise interventions on quality of life (QoL), metabolic risk factors and androgen deficiency symptoms in men with prostate cancer undergoing ADT. Methods CINAHL, Cochrane library, Medline and PsychINFO were searched to identify randomised controlled trials published from January, 2004 to October, 2014. Data extraction and methodological quality assessment was independently conducted by two reviewers. Meta-analysis was conducted using RevMan® 5.3.5. Results Of 2183 articles retrieved, 11 studies met the inclusion criteria and had low risk of bias.Nine studies evaluated exercise (resistance and/or aerobic and/or counselling) and three evaluated dietary supplementation. Median sample size =79 (33–121) and median intervention duration was 12 weeks (12–24). Exercise improved QoL measures (SMD 0.26, 95%CI −0.01 to 0.53) but not body composition, metabolic risk or vasomotor symptoms. Qualitative analysis indicated soy (or isoflavone) supplementation did not improve vasomotor symptoms; however, may improve QoL. Conclusions Few studies have evaluated the efficacy of lifestyle interventions in the management of adverse effects of ADT. We found inconclusive results for exercise in improving QoL and negative results for other outcomes. For soy-based products, we found negative results for modifying vasomotor symptoms and inconclusive results for improving QoL. Future work should investigate the best mode of exercise for improving QoL and other interventions such as dietary counselling should be investigated for their potential to modify these outcomes.