Co-infection and risk factors of tuberculosis in a Mexican HIV+ population

INTRODUCTION: The situation of tuberculosis (TB) is being modified by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which is increasing the occurrence of new cases and the generation of drug resistant strains, affecting not only the people infected with HIV, but also their close contacts and the general population, conforming a serious public health concern. However, the magnitudes of the factors associated to this co-infection differ considerably in relation to the population groups and geographical areas. METHODS: In order to evaluate the prevalence and risk factors for the co-infection of tuberculosis (TB) in a population with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV+) in the Southeast of Mexico, we made the analysis of clinical and epidemiological variables and the diagnosis of tuberculosis by isolation of mycobacteria from respiratory samples. RESULTS: From the 147 HIV+ individuals analyzed, 12 were culture positive; this shows a prevalence of 8% for the co-infection. The only variable found with statistical significance for the co-infection was the number of CD4-T < 200 cells/mm³, OR 13 (95%, CI 2-106 vs 12-109). CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge this is the first report describing the factors associated with tuberculosis co -infection with HIV in a population from Southern Mexico. The low number of CD4 T-cells was the only variable associated with the TB co-infection and the rest of the variables provide scenarios that require specific and particular interventions for this population group.

Dengue: clinical forms and risk groups in a high incidence city in the southeastern region of Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The article describes the epidemiologic profile of dengue cases in Vitória, the capital of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from 2000 to 2009, aimed at identifying risk groups regarding the incidence and severity of the disease. METHODS: Confirmed cases of dengue among city residents during ten years were classified as dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, dengue shock syndrome and dengue with complications, and analyzed according to sex, age, race-color and education. RESULTS: The proportion of dengue cases was highest among women aged 20 to 29 years-old and similar between whites and blacks. A gradual decrease occurred in the percentage of dengue cases in the population aged 15 years-old or more, in the historical series of 10 years, and a growing increase in individuals less than 15 years-old, showing statistical significance. The fatality rate ranged from zero to 0.3% for all forms of dengue and from 0.2% to 18.2% for severe forms. CONCLUSIONS: The profile of those affected by the disease in the municipality is similar to those affected in Brazil. The increasing number of cases in individuals under 15 years-old corroborates the results of recent studies in other Brazilian municipalities.

Epidemiological factors related to the transmission risk of Trypanosoma cruzi in a Quilombola community, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: This work was an epidemiological investigation of the risk of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in the rural Quilombola community of Furnas do Dionízio, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. METHODS: Of the 71 animals examined, seven were captured (two opossums, Didelphis albiventris; four rats, Rattus rattus; and one nine-banded armadillo, Dasypus novemcinctus) and 64 were domestic (one canine, Canis familiaris; five pigs, Sus scrofa; two bovines, Bos taurus; five caprines, Capra sp.; and 51 ovines, Ovis aries). Parasitological tests were performed to detect parasites in the blood and to identify the morphology of flagellates. These methods included fresh examinations, buffy coat tests and blood cultures. Molecular analysis of DNA for identification of trypanosomatids was performed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with primers S35 and S36. RESULTS: The parasitological tests showed flagellates in an opossum and two cattle. The molecular tests showed DNA from T. cruzi in an opossum and a pig. Triatoma sordida was the only triatomine species found in the community, and it colonized households (four specimens) and the surrounding areas (124 specimens). Twenty-three specimens tested positive for flagellates, which were subsequently identified as T. cruzi by PCR. CONCLUSIONS: Data analysis demonstrated that T. cruzi has a peridomestic life cycle that involves both domestic and wild mammals.

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Risk factors for Leishmania chagasi infection in an endemic area in Raposa, State of Maranhão, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Infection with Leishmania chagasi is the most common clinical presentation for visceral leishmaniaisis in endemic areas. The municipality of Raposa is an endemic area in State of Maranhão, Brazil, and have had registration cases of visceral leishmaniasis disease. For this reason, a cross- sectional study was conducted to evaluate the risk factors for infection with L. chagasi detected by Montenegro skin test. METHODS: The sample comprised 96% of the inhabitants of the villages of Maresia, Pantoja, and Marisol located in the municipality of Raposa, corresponding to 1,359 subjects. Data were collected using a questionnaire. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were applied to evaluate the association between the variables studied and infection of L. chagasi. RESULTS: The variables associated with infection upon nonadjusted analysis were a straw roof, mud walls, floors of beaten earth, presence of sand flies inside or outside of the dwelling, and bathing outdoors. Adjusted analysis showed that the presence of sand flies inside/outside the dwelling was a risk factor, and age younger than 10 years was a protective factor against asymptomatic infection. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the extent to which precarious living conditions of the population strengthen the epidemiological chain of visceral leishmaniasis.

Risk parity: True versus naive approach

This paper studies the performance of two different Risk Parity strategies, one from Maillard (2008) and a “naïve” that was already used by market practitioners, against traditional strategies. The tests will compare different regions (US, UK, Germany and Japan) since 1991 to 2013, and will use different ways of volatility. The main findings are that Risk Parity outperforms any traditional strategy, and the “true” (by Maillard) has considerable better results than the “naïve” when using historical volatility, while using EWMA there are significant differences.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection: risk factors and clinical outcome in non-intensive-care units

INTRODUCTION: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is spread out in hospitals across different regions of the world and is regarded as the major agent of nosocomial infections, causing infections such as skin and soft tissue pneumonia and sepsis. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for methicillin-resistance in Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection (BSI) and the predictive factors for death. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of fifty-one patients presenting bacteraemia due to S. aureus between September 2006 and September 2008 was analysed. Staphylococcu aureus samples were obtained from blood cultures performed by clinical hospital microbiology laboratory from the Uberlândia Federal University. Methicillinresistance was determined by growth on oxacillin screen agar and antimicrobial susceptibility by means of the disk diffusion method. RESULTS: We found similar numbers of MRSA (56.8%) and methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) (43.2%) infections, and the overall hospital mortality ratio was 47%, predominantly in MRSA group (70.8% vs. 29.2%) (p=0.05). Age (p=0.02) was significantly higher in MRSA patients as also was the use of central venous catheter (p=0.02). The use of two or more antimicrobial agents (p=0.03) and the length of hospital stay prior to bacteraemia superior to seven days (p=0.006) were associated with mortality. High odds ratio value was observed in cardiopathy as comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Despite several risk factors associated with MRSA and MSSA infection, the use of two or more antimicrobial agents was the unique independent variable associated with mortality.

Brazilian equity risk premium analysis: A macroeconomic approach

Double Degree Masters in Economics Program from Insper and NOVA School of Business and Economics

HAART: a risk factor for development of porphyria cutanea tarda?

Porphyria cutanea tarda (PCT) is caused by inherited or acquired partial deficiency of the uroporphyrinogen-decarboxylase (Uro-D) enzyme activity. It is the most common form of porphyria. The main triggering factors to the development of porphyria cutanea tarda are alcohol, hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus. There are several reports of PCT associated with drugs, among them, antiretroviral therapy. We describe three HIV-positive patients, which showed photosensitivity as well as the emergence of tense blisters on sun-exposed areas during the use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and discuss the possibility of PCT after the use of these drugs by those patients.

Market risk charge of the trading book: a comparison of the Basel II and Basel III

This paper aims to investigate if the market capital charge of the trading book increased in Basel III compared to Basel II. I showed that the capital charge rises by 232% and 182% under the standardized and internal model, respectively. The varying liquidity horizons, the calibration to a stress period, the introduction of credit spread risk, the restrictions on correlations across risk categories and the incremental default charge boost Basel III requirements. Nevertheless, the impact of Expected shortfall at 97.5% is low and long term shocks decrease the charge. The standardized approach presents advantages and disadvantages relative to internal models.

Momentum risk: An approach following the correlations between active stocks

The momentum anomaly has been widely documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues where there is no consensus and puzzles left unexplained. One is that strategies based on momentum present a level of risk that is inconsistent with the diversification that it offers. Moreover, recent studies indicate that this risk is variable over time and mostly strategy-specific. This work project hypothesises and proves that this evidence is explained by the portfolio constitution of the momentum strategy over time, namely the covariance and correlation between companies in the top and down deciles and across them.

Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

Systemic risk for financial institutions in UK

Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) is an approach used to measure the systemic risk financial institutions face. It estimates how significantly systemic events (poor market performance, out of 1.6 times Standard Deviation borders) are expected to affect market capitalization of a particular firm. The concept was developed in the late 2000s and is widely used for cross-country comparisons of financial firms. For the purposes of generalization of this technique it is often used with market data containing non-domestic currencies for some financial firms. That may lead to results having currency noise in them as it is shown for 77 UK financial firms in our analysis between 2001 and 2014.

Prevalence and risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii infection among pregnant and postpartum women attended at public healthcare facilities in the City of Niterói, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

IntroductionTo determine the prevalence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies among pregnant and postpartum women attended within the public healthcare system in Niterói, State of Rio de Janeiro, and to detect possible exposure factors associated with T. gondii infection in this population.MethodsIgM and IgG anti-T. gondii antibodies were investigated in 276 pregnant and 124 postpartum women by using the indirect immunofluorescence (IFAT) and immunoenzymatic assay (ELISA) techniques. The participants were selected by convenience sampling. All these 400 patients filled out a free and informed consent statement, answered an epidemiological questionnaire and were informed about the disease.ResultsAmong the 400 samples analyzed, 234 (58.5%) were reactive to IgG anti-T. gondii antibodies, according to the IFAT and/or ELISA assay. One pregnant woman was found to be reactive to IgM anti-T. gondii antibodies, with an intermediate IgG avidity test. Risk factor analysis showed that seropositivity was significantly associated (p<0.05) with age, contact with cats and presence of rodents at home. Through a logistic regression model, these associations were confirmed for age and contact with cats, while education at least of the high school level was found to be a protective factor.ConclusionsThe prevalence rate of IgG anti-T. gondii antibodies in the City of Niterói was high and the risk factors for infection detected after multivariate analysis were: age over 30 years, contact with cats and education levels lower than university graduate level.