O planejamento econômico no Brasil: considerações críticas

In the past thirty years, a series of plans have been developed by successive Brazilian governments in a continuing effort to maximize the nation's resources for economic and social growth. This planning history has been quantitatively rich but qualitatively poor. The disjunction has stimulated Professor Mello e Souza to address himself to the problem of national planning and to offer some criticisms of Brazilian planning experience. Though political instability has obviously been a factor promoting discontinuity, his criticisms are aimed at the attitudes and strategic concepts which have sought to link planning to national goals and administration. He criticizes the fascination with techniques and plans to the exclusion of proper diagnosis of the socio-political reality, developing instruments to coordinate and carry out objectives, and creating an administrative structure centralized enough to make national decisions and decentralized enough to perform on the basis of those decisions. Thus, fixed, quantified objectives abound while the problem of functioning mechanisms for the coordinated, rational use of resources has been left unattended. Although his interest and criticism are focused on the process and experience of national planning, he recognized variation in the level and results of Brazilian planning. National plans have failed due to faulty conception of the function of planning. Sectorial plans, save in the sector of the petroleum industry under government responsibility, ha e not succeeded in overcoming the problems of formulation and execution thereby repeating old technical errors. Planning for the private sector has a somewhat brighter history due to the use of Grupos Executivos which has enabled the planning process to transcend the formalism and tradition-bound attitudes of the regular bureaucracy. Regional planning offers two relatively successful experiences, Sudene and the strategy of the regionally oriented autarchy. Thus, planning history in Brazil is not entirely black but a certain shade of grey. The major part of the article, however, is devoted to a descriptive analysis of the national planning experience. The plans included in this analysis are: The Works and Equipment Plan (POE); The Health, Food, Transportation and Energy Plan (Salte); The Program of Goals; The Trienal Plan of Economic and Social Development; and the Plan of Governmental Economic Action (Paeg). Using these five plans for his historical experience the author sets out a series of errors of formulation and execution by which he analyzes that experience. With respect to formulation, he speaks of a lack of elaboration of programs and projects, of coordination among diverse goals, and of provision of qualified staff and techniques. He mentions the absence of the definition of resources necessary to the financing of the plan and the inadequate quantification of sectorial and national goals due to the lack of reliable statistical information. Finally, he notes the failure to coordinate the annual budget with the multi-year plans. He sees the problems of execution as beginning in the absence of coordination between the various sectors of the public administration, the failure to develop an operative system of decentralization, the absence of any system of financial and fiscal control over execution, the difficulties imposed by the system of public accounting, and the absence of an adequate program of allocation for the liberation of resources. He ends by pointing to the failure to develop and use an integrated system of political economic tools in a mode compatible with the objective of the plans. The body of the article analyzes national planning experience in Brazil using these lists of errors as rough model of criticism. Several conclusions emerge from this analysis with regard to planning in Brazil and in developing countries, in general. Plans have generally been of little avail in Brazil because of the lack of a continuous, bureaucratized (in the Weberian sense) planning organization set in an instrumentally suitable administrative structure and based on thorough diagnoses of socio-economic conditions and problems. Plans have become the justification for planning. Planning has come to be conceived as a rational method of orienting the process of decisions through the establishment of a precise and quantified relation between means and ends. But this conception has led to a planning history rimmed with frustration, and failure, because of its rigidity in the face of flexible and changing reality. Rather, he suggests a conception of planning which understands it "as a rational process of formulating decisions about the policy, economy, and society whose only demand is that of managing the instrumentarium in a harmonious and integrated form in order to reach explicit, but not quantified ends". He calls this "planning without plans": the establishment of broad-scale tendencies through diagnosis whose implementation is carried out through an adjustable, coherent instrumentarium of political-economic tools. Administration according to a plan of multiple, integrated goals is a sound procedure if the nation's administrative machinery contains the technical development needed to control the multiple variables linked to any situation of socio-economic change. Brazil does not possess this level of refinement and any strategy of planning relevant to its problems must recognize this. The reforms which have been attempted fail to make this recognition as is true of the conception of planning informing the Brazilian experience. Therefore, unworkable plans, ill-diagnosed with little or no supportive instrumentarium or flexibility have been Brazil's legacy. This legacy seems likely to continue until the conception of planning comes to live in the reality of Brazil.

Aprender com os outros : uma estratégia para a inclusão de um aluno com Autismo

Este Projecto de Intervenção, “Aprender com os outros - uma estratégia para a inclusão de um aluno com autismo”, fundamentado nos pressupostos e nos procedimentos da investigação-acção, centrou-se nas acções em áreas de maior e menor sucesso do aluno, de nome fictício “Francisco”, no âmbito da língua portuguesa e da socialização, numa perspectiva inclusiva. Este aluno considerado com necessidades educativas especiais (NEE) apresentava perturbações do espectro do autismo (PEA), o que, à partida, se repercutia no seu défice de atenção, na autonomia para a realização das tarefas escolares, na área da linguagem e da comunicação e na interacção social. Como as interacções na turma e com a turma são essenciais para a aprendizagem, propusemo-nos implementar actividades específicas para o desenvolvimento das competências sociais e cognitivas, com abordagem comportamentalista, numa turma do 3º ano de escolaridade, onde estava incluído um aluno diagnosticado com PEA. Também procurámos desenvolver as suas competências académicas, através do trabalho realizado no grupo e com o grupo-turma, criando as condições que favorecessem a socialização do aluno e a sua autonomia. Para atingirmos aqueles objectivos, iniciámos um trabalho a pares e depois em pequenos grupos, para desta forma incluir o “Francisco” na dinâmica das aulas, para que participasse nas actividades propostas, obtendo o respeito dos colegas na valorização das suas intervenções e do seu ritmo de trabalho. Os objectivos definidos, bem como as actividades realizadas e avaliadas, implicando todos os intervenientes no processo, permitiram que o “Francisco” fizesse aprendizagens significativas nas áreas, académica, social, da autonomia e da comunicação. Segundo Silva (2009), a inclusão dos alunos considerados com necessidades educativas especiais no ensino regular implica mudanças ao nível das atitudes e das práticas pedagógicas de todos os intervenientes no processo ensino e aprendizagem, da organização e da gestão na sala de aula e na própria escola enquanto instituição. Acreditamos que só desta forma se pode proporcionar aos alunos marcados pela diferença, que é um valor em si mesma (Rodrigues, 2006; Leitão, 2006; Sanches & Teodoro, 2006; Silva, 2009), as mesmas experiências, aprendizagens e vivências que são proporcionadas aos restantes colegas.

Algumas técnicas SIG úteis à obtenção de áreas de serviço de conjuntos de pontos

Em estudos de acessibilidade, e não só, são muito úteis um tipo de estruturas que se podem obter a partir de uma rede, eventualmente multi-modal e parametrizável: as chamadas “áreas de serviço”, as quais são constituídas por polígonos, cada qual correspondente a uma zona situada entre um certo intervalo de custo, relativamente a uma certa “feature” (ponto, multiponto, etc.). Pretende-se neste estudo obter, a partir de áreas de serviço relativas a um universo de features, áreas de serviço relativas a subconjuntos dessas features. Estas técnicas envolvem manipulações relativamente complexas de polígonos e podem ser generalizadas para conjuntos de conjuntos e assim sucessivamente. Convém notar que nem sempre se dispõe da rede, podendo dispor-se das referidas estruturas; eventualmente, no caso de áreas de serviço, sob a forma de imagens (raster) a serem convertidas para formato vectorial.

Diversidade ética e exclusão social no processo da consolidação da unidade nacional : o caso dos vendedores e vendedoras informais do Mercado de Estrela Vermelha : cidade de Maputo

O presente trabalho, estuda as relações sociais e interculturais dos vendedores informais do mercado de Estrela Vermelha- cidade de Maputo. Analisa os fatores que afetam a unidade nacional, entendida como o sentido de pertença a uma identidade e a um destino comuns. Há duas teses que explicam a crise da unidade nacional. A primeira argumenta que o que coloca em causa a unidade nacional é a pretensão de se querer construir uma nação cívica, excluindo e até mesmo hostilizando as identidades étnicas vistas como fator de divisão e de conflitos. Propõe por isso, o reconhecimento e a inclusão dos diferentes grupos étnicos no poder (Magode, 1996; Cahen, 1996; Lundin, 1996). Na segunda, argumenta-se que as etnias perderam a sua relevância em virtude das transformações sociopolíticas e económicas havidas no país (Castiano, 2010), ou como outros defendem, que objetivamente elas não existem, se não apenas como reflexo dos conflitos pelo acesso aos recursos e poder (Serra, 1996). Sendo assim, o obstáculo da unidade nacional são as desigualdades económicas e não as diferenças étnicas. Mediante o trabalho de observação, que incluiu entrevistas, conversas, descrição e fotografias, como técnicas de recolha de dados, combinado com a pesquisa documental, este trabalho argumenta que, existe no mercado uma convivência multicultural, mas regista-se ainda défice nas relações interculturais. Os vendedores do Sul, consideram-se culturalmente superiores em relação aos seus colegas do norte do Save. Tal como outras pessoas da região sul, estes vendedores tratam os seus colegas pelo termo xingondo, que além da simples identificação, é usado para desqualificar os seus colegas do norte. Assim, o silêncio em relação ao etnocentrismo das pessoas do sul, a timidez que ainda se verifica em relação ao uso oficial das línguas moçambicanas, que são o meio de comunicação mais usado, bem como a incipiente provisão dos direitos da cidadania, constituem os principais obstáculos à unidade nacional. O estudo termina propondo a operacionalização do conceito da unidade nacional, tendo em conta, por um lado o respeito pelas diferenças culturais e a promoção do diálogo intercultural e por outro, o combate contra as diferenças abismais entre ricos e pobres.

Effects of an exercise training program in physical condition after liver transplantation in familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy: a case report

Introduction: Familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy (FAP) is a neurodegenerative disease that leads to sensory and motor polyneuropathies as well as functional limitations. So far, liver transplantation is the only treatment for FAP because the mutated protein causing the disease is mainly produced in the liver. With the increasing survival of transplant recipients, functional and cardiovascular problems as consequences of immunosuppressant side effects are increasing associated with sedentary lifestyles and/or retransplantation status. We sought to analyze the impact of exercise training programs on 1 FAP patient’s course long-term after liver transplantation. Methodology. A FAP patient (female; 49 years of age; body mass index 18.8 kg/m2) underwent a liver transplantation 133 months before assessment. She was assessed for body composition, isometric quadriceps muscle strength, functional capacity, fatigue, and levels of physical activity before and after a 6-month period of combined exercise training. Results: After the exercise training program, almost all variables were improved, namely, total body skeletal muscle mass, proximal femoral bone mineral density, quadriceps strength, maximal oxygen consumption on 6 minutes walk test (6mwt) or VO2peak, total ventilation on 6mwt, and fatigue. The improvement in distance on 6mwt (69.2 m) was clinically significant. Preintervention the levels of physical activity were below international recommendations for health; after the program they achieved the recommendations. Conclusion: The results showed an improvement in functional capacity with a decrease in future disability risk associated with a better lifestyle with respect to physical activity levels in 1 patient.

Typhoid fever in children of low and high socieconomic strata: comparison of hygiene habits

The relationship between the hygienic habits of children who had typhoid fever (TF) who had recently begun attending school and their family group, is assessed. It is supposed that children, independently of their SES, acquired TF because of inadequate habits which facilitated the oral-fecal cycle. The sample was formed of 40 child-mother dyads: 20 of low SES (group A) and 20 of high SES (group B), the child of each of which had had TF. Results showed that the hygienic habits of children with respect to the oral-fecal cycle, their perception of school toilet cleanliness as well as the mothers' explanation of their children's hygienic habits is very similar in the two groups. The importance of these results is that the SES is seem to be irrelevant in the case of TF but that the hygienic habits of the children are of importance. Public health policy should be modified to include the teaching of proper hygienic habits (oral-fecal cycle).

Subsequent pregnancies: who has them and who wants them? Observations from an urban center in Southern Brazil

Subsequent pregnancies in mothers of a birth cohort from Pelotas, Southern Brazil, were studied in relation to maternal and socio-economic factors. Within about 3 1/2 years of the cohort child's birth, 39% of mothers had experienced at least one further pregnancy. This proportion decreased with increasing maternal age, years of schooling and family income. A U-shaped trend was observed with respect to parity. Mothers who had delivered the cohort child by caesarean section were also less likely to have another pregnancy within that time. Logistic regression analysis showed that each of these factors remained significantly associated with further pregnancies after controlling for the remaining variables. Analysis of the first subsequent pregnancy showed that a high proportion of mothers had not wanted the pregnancy. Unwanted pregnancies were also significantly associated with older women, low educational status, higher parity and low family income.

Learning dependent sources using mixtures of Dirichlet: applications on hyperspectral unmixing

This paper is an elaboration of the DECA algorithm [1] to blindly unmix hyperspectral data. The underlying mixing model is linear, meaning that each pixel is a linear mixture of the endmembers signatures weighted by the correspondent abundance fractions. The proposed method, as DECA, is tailored to highly mixed mixtures in which the geometric based approaches fail to identify the simplex of minimum volume enclosing the observed spectral vectors. We resort then to a statitistical framework, where the abundance fractions are modeled as mixtures of Dirichlet densities, thus enforcing the constraints on abundance fractions imposed by the acquisition process, namely non-negativity and constant sum. With respect to DECA, we introduce two improvements: 1) the number of Dirichlet modes are inferred based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle; 2) The generalized expectation maximization (GEM) algorithm we adopt to infer the model parameters is improved by using alternating minimization and augmented Lagrangian methods to compute the mixing matrix. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is illustrated with simulated and read data.

A gestão do risco associado à negociação de energia eléctrica através de contratos bilaterais e mercado spot

Num mercado de electricidade competitivo onde existe um ambiente de incerteza, as empresas de geração adoptam estratégias que visam a maximização do lucro, e a minimização do risco. Neste contexto, é de extrema importância para desenvolver uma estratégia adequada de gestão de risco ter em conta as diferentes opções de negociação de energia num mercado liberalizado, de forma a suportar a tomada de decisões na gestão de risco. O presente trabalho apresenta um modelo que avalia a melhor estratégia de um produtor de energia eléctrica que comercializa num mercado competitivo, onde existem dois mercados possíveis para a transacção de energia: o mercado organizado (bolsa) e o mercado de contratos bilaterais. O produtor tenta maximizar seus lucros e minimizar os riscos correspondentes, seleccionando o melhor equilíbrio entre os dois mercados possíveis (bolsa e bilateral). O mercado de contratos bilaterais visa gerir adequadamente os riscos inerentes à operação de mercados no curto prazo (mercado organizado) e dar o vendedor / comprador uma capacidade real de escolher o fornecedor com que quer negociar. O modelo apresentado neste trabalho faz uma caracterização explícita do risco no que diz respeito ao agente de mercado na questão da sua atitude face ao risco, medido pelo Value at Risk (VaR), descrito neste trabalho por Lucro-em-Risco (PAR). O preço e os factores de risco de volume são caracterizados por um valor médio e um desvio padrão, e são modelizados por distribuições normais. Os resultados numéricos são obtidos utilizando a simulação de Monte Carlo implementado em Matlab, e que é aplicado a um produtor que mantém uma carteira diversificada de tecnologias de geração, para um horizonte temporal de um ano. Esta dissertação está organizada da seguinte forma: o capítulo 1, 2 e 3 descrevem o estado-da-arte relacionado com a gestão de risco na comercialização de energia eléctrica. O capítulo 4 descreve o modelo desenvolvido e implementado, onde é também apresentado um estudo de caso com uma aplicação do modelo para avaliar o risco de negociação de um produtor. No capítulo 5 são apresentadas as principais conclusões.

Constructing good deals in discrete time arbitrage-free dynamic pricing models

Recent literature has proved that many classical pricing models (Black and Scholes, Heston, etc.) and risk measures (V aR, CV aR, etc.) may lead to “pathological meaningless situations”, since traders can build sequences of portfolios whose risk leveltends to −infinity and whose expected return tends to +infinity, i.e., (risk = −infinity, return = +infinity). Such a sequence of strategies may be called “good deal”. This paper focuses on the risk measures V aR and CV aR and analyzes this caveat in a discrete time complete pricing model. Under quite general conditions the explicit expression of a good deal is given, and its sensitivity with respect to some possible measurement errors is provided too. We point out that a critical property is the absence of short sales. In such a case we first construct a “shadow riskless asset” (SRA) without short sales and then the good deal is given by borrowing more and more money so as to invest in the SRA. It is also shown that the SRA is interested by itself, even if there are short selling restrictions.

Information and investor behavior surrounding earnings announcements

Preliminary version

Reward-risk efficiency in proportional reinsurance with different risk measures

We have studied, in particular under normality of the implied random variables, the connections between different measures of risk such as the standard deviation, the W-ruin probability and the p-V@R. We discuss conditions granting the equivalence of these measures with respect to risk preference relations and the equivalence of dominance and efficiency of risk-reward criteria involving these measures. Then more specifically we applied these concepts to rigorously face the problem of finding the efficient set of de Finetti’s variable quota share proportional reinsurance.

Modelo de avaliação do programa comunitário de intervenção precoce da CERCI Lisboa

Mestrado em Intervenção Socio-Organizacional na Saúde - Área de especialização: Políticas de Administração e Gestão de Serviços de Saúde.

Health financing changes in the context of health care decentralization: the case of three Latin American countries

OBJECTIVE: The results of an evaluative longitudinal study, which identified the effects of health care decentralization on health financing in Mexico, Nicaragua and Peru are presented in this article. METHODS: The methodology had two main phases. In the first, secondary sources of data and documents were analyzed with the following variables: type of decentralization implemented, source of financing, funds for financing, providers, final use of resources, mechanisms for resource allocation. In the second phase, primary data were collected by a survey of key personnel in the health sector. RESULTS: Results of the comparative analysis are presented, showing the changes implemented in the three countries, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of each country in matters of financing and decentralization. CONCLUSIONS: The main financing changes implemented and quantitative trends with respect to the five financing indicators are presented as a methodological tool to implement corrections and adjustments in health financing.

Tilted boxes on inclined planes

We propose the study of a box placed on an inclined plane, with an initial tilt with respect to the plane. This is a paradigmatic example of the role played by friction as a link between translational and rotational motion. This example has two advantages over the usual example of a sphere (or cylinder) rolling down an inclined plane. First, it provides a good model for a much greater variety of "real-life" situations. Second, it exhibits a much richer structure in parameter space, even when the box starts from rest. (C) 2000 American Association of Physics Teachers.