923 resultados para Quantile regressions
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Background/Aims: The simultaneous use of alcohol and cannabis is common among adolescents, but has been little studied. In this study, we examine predictors and consequences of this behavior in a population-based sample of high school students. Method: Self-reports were obtained from students in Quebec (Canada) followed throughout high school (N=6589). Logistic regressions were used to test the association between individual, family, and peerrelated predictors in grades 7–8 and simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use in grade 10, as well as between simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use in grade 10 and experiencing 3 or more substance-related problems of various types (legal, physical, etc.) in grade 11. Results: Most predictors in grades 7–8 were associated with simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use in grade 10. Only variables reflecting early-onset substance use involvement — alcohol intoxication, cannabis use, and drug use by close friend(s) — remained predictive in a multivariate model. Simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use was associated with increased substance-related problems in grade 11, above and beyond baseline problems and the concurrent use of the two substances in separate episodes in grade 10. Conclusions: Simultaneous alcohol and cannabis use 1) is anticipated by multiple psychosocial risk factors which come together with individual and peer substance use in early high school and 2) is independently predictive of subsequent substance-related problems. Providing adolescents with adequate information regarding the potential harm of simultaneous use may be a useful prevention strategy.
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Background: Questions remain regarding the consequences of illicit drug use on adolescent adjustment and the nature of mechanisms that may explain these consequences. In this study, we examined whether early-onset illicit drug use predicts subsequent academic and psychosocial adjustment and whether associations are socially-mediated by decreased school engagement and increased peer deviancy. Method: 4885 adolescents were followed throughout secondary school. We used regressions to determine whether illicit drug use in grade 7 predicted academic achievement, school dropout, depressive symptoms, and conduct problems in grades 10–11, adjusting for potential confounders. We used path analysis to test whether significant associations were mediated by school engagement and peer deviancy in grade 8. Results: Illicit drug use predicted conduct problems and school dropout, but not academic achievement and depressive symptoms. The association between illicit drug use and conduct problems was fully mediated by increased peer deviancy. The association between illicit drug use and school dropout was partially mediated by increased peer deviancy, but remained mostly direct. No indirect association via decreased school engagement was found. Examination of reverse pathways revealed that conduct problems and academic achievement in grade 7 predicted drug use in grades 10–11. These associations were mediated by peer deviancy and school engagement (conduct problems only). Conclusion: Adolescent illicit drug use influences the risk of school dropout and conduct problems in part by contributing to deviant peer affiliation. Reciprocal social mediation characterizes the association between drug use and conduct problems. A reverse mechanism best explains the association with academic achievement.
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Background: Adolescent suicide attempts are disproportionally prevalent and frequently of low severity, raising questions regarding their long-term prognostic implications. In this study, we examined whether adolescent attempts were asso- ciated with impairments related to suicidality, psychopathology, and psychosocial functioning in adulthood (objective 1) and whether these impairments were better accounted for by concurrent adolescent confounders (objective 2). Method: Eight hundred and sixteen adolescents were assessed using interviews and question- naires at four time points from adolescence to adulthood. We examined whether lifetime suicide attempts in adolescence (by T2, mean age 17) predicted adult out- comes (by T4, mean age 30) using linear and logistic regressions in unadjusted models (objective 1) and adjusting for sociodemographic background, adolescent psychopathology, and family risk factors (objective 2). Results: In unadjusted analyses, adolescent suicide attempts predicted poorer adjustment on all outcomes, except those related to social role status. After adjustment, adolescent attempts remained predictive of axis I and II psychopathology (anxiety disorder, antisocial and borderline personality disorder symptoms), global and social adjustment, risky sex, and psychiatric treatment utilization. However, adolescent attempts no longer predicted most adult outcomes, notably suicide attempts and major depressive disorder. Secondary analyses indicated that associations did not differ by sex and attempt characteristics (intent, lethality, recurrence). Conclusions: Adolescent suicide attempters are at high risk of protracted and wide-ranging im- pairments, regardless of the characteristics of their attempt. Although attempts specifically predict (and possibly influence) several outcomes, results suggest that most impairments reflect the confounding contributions of other individual and family problems or vulnerabilites in adolescent attempters.
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Background: Adolescent depression prevention research has focused on mean intervention outcomes, but has not considered heterogeneity in symptom course. Here, we empirically identify subgroups with distinct trajectories of depressive symptom change among adolescents enrolled in two indicated depression preven- tion trials and examine how cognitive-behavioral (CB) interventions and baseline predictors relate to trajectory membership. Methods: Six hundred thirty-one participants were assigned to one of three conditions: CB group intervention, CB bibliotherapy, and brochure control. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify trajectories of depressive symptoms from pretest to 2-year follow-up. We examined associations between class membership and conditions using chi- square tests and baseline predictors using multinomial regressions. Results: We identified four trajectories in the full sample. Qualitatively similar trajectories were found in each condition separately. Two trajectories of positive symptom course (low-declining, high-declining) had declining symptoms and were dis- tinguished by baseline symptom severity. Two trajectories of negative course (high-persistent, resurging), respectively, showed no decline in symptoms or de- cline followed by symptom reappearance. Participants in the brochure control condition were significantly more likely to populate the high-persistent trajectory relative to either CB condition and were significantly less likely to populate the low-declining trajectory relative to CB group. Several baseline factors predicted trajectory classes, but gender was the most informative prognostic factor, with males having increased odds of membership in a high-persistent trajectory rel- ative to other trajectories. Conclusions: Findings suggest that CB preventive interventions do not alter the nature of trajectories, but reduce the risk that adolescents follow a trajectory of chronically elevated symptoms.
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High-resolution oxygen and carbon isotope stratigraphy is presented for Miocene to early Pliocene sequences at three DSDP sites from the Lord Howe Rise, southwest Pacific, at water depths ranging from 1,300 to 2,000 m. Site 588 is located in the warm subtropics (~26°S), whereas Sites 590 and 591 are positioned in transitional (northern temperate) water masses (~31°S). Benthic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotope analyses were conducted on all sites; planktonic foraminiferal isotope data were generated for Site 590 only. Sample resolution in these sequences is on the order of 50,000 yr. or better. The chronological framework employed in this study is based largely upon ages assigned to Neogene calcareous nannoplankton boundaries. The benthic oxygen isotope record exhibits several major features during the Neogene. During most of the early Miocene, delta18O values were relatively low, reaching minimum values in the late early Miocene (19.5 to 16.5 Ma), and recording the climax of Neogene warmth. This was followed by a major increase in benthic delta18O values between ~16.5 and 13.5 Ma, which is interpreted as representing major, permanent accumulation of the East Antarctic ice sheet and cooling of bottom waters. During the 3 m.y. 18O enrichment, surface waters at these middle latitudes warmed between 16 and 14.5 Ma. During the remainder of the middle and late Miocene, benthic delta18O values exhibit distinct fluctuations, but the average value remained unchanged. The isotopic data show two distinct episodes of climatic cooling close to the middle/late Miocene boundary. The earliest of these events occurred between 12.5 and 11.5 Ma in the latest middle Miocene. The second cooling event occurred from 11 to 9 Ma, and is marked by some of the highest delta18O values of the entire Miocene. This was followed by relative warmth during the middle part of the late Miocene. The latest Miocene and earliest Pliocene (6.2 to 4.5 Ma) were marked by relatively high delta18O values, indicating increased cooling and glaciation. During the middle Pliocene, at about 3.4 Ma, a 0.4 per mil increase in benthic delta18O documents a net increase in average global ice volume and cooling of bottom waters. During this interval of increased glaciation, surface waters warmed by 2-3°C in southern middle-latitude regions. During the late Pliocene, between 2.6 and 2.4 Ma, a further increase in delta18O occurred; this has been interpreted by previous workers as heralding the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Surface-water warming in the middle latitudes occurred in association with major high-latitude glacial increases in the early middle Miocene (16-14 Ma), middle Pliocene (-3.5 Ma), and late Pliocene (~2.4 Ma). These intervals were also marked by increases in the vertical temperature gradient in the open ocean. Intersite correlation is enhanced by using carbon isotope stratigraphy. The great similarity of the delta13C time-series records within and between ocean basins and with water depth clearly indicates that changes in oceanwide average delta13C of [HCO3]- in seawater dominated the records, rather than local effects. Broad changes in the Neogene delta13C record were caused largely by transfer of organic carbon between continental and oceanic reservoirs. These transfers were caused by marine transgressions and regressions on the continental margins. The dominant feature of Neogene delta13C stratigraphy is a broad late early to early middle Miocene increase of about lâ between ~19 and 14.5 Ma. This trend occurred contemporaneously with a period of maximum coastal onlap (transgression) and maximum Neogene climatic warmth. The delta13C trend terminated during the expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet and associated marine regression. The latest Miocene carbon isotope shift (of up to - 0.75 per mil) at 6.2 Ma is clearly recorded in all sites examined and was followed by relatively low values during the remainder of the Neogene. This shift was caused by a glacioeustatic sealevel lowering that exposed continental margins via regression and ultimately increased the flux of organic carbon to the deep sea. An increase in delta13C values during the early Pliocene (~5 to 4 Ma) resulted from marine transgression during a time of global warmth.
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Calculated and measured estimations of biomass of small (<3 mm), large (3-30 mm), and total zooplankton were verified (compared). These integral parameters of epipelagic communities were estimated by two methods. We used previously obtained regression equations, which correlate these parameters with water transparency. Measured values of aforesaid parameters were compared with their mean values in waters of different productivity estimated from NASA satellite maps. We compared data collected at fifteen stations in September-December in regions of different productivity in the North Atlantic. In warm regions (to the south of 40°N) measured and calculated values coincide well. In boreal regions in autumn bulk of mesozooplankton descends to deep layers due to seasonal migrations; hence correlation between measured and calculated values is disrupted. It is evident that correlation between water transparency and mesozooplankton biomass (integral index of water productivity) obtained before should be corrected for seasonal variations.
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Forty indurated sediment samples from Site 516 were studied to determine the cause of acoustic anisotropy in carbonate- bearing deep-sea sediments. Recovered from sub-bottom depths between 388 and 1222 m, the samples have properties exhibiting the following ranges: wet-bulk density, 1.90-2.49 g/cm3; fractional porosity, 0.45-0.14; carbonate content, 33-88%; compressional-wave velocity (at 0.1 kbar pressure), 1.87-4.87 km/s; and anisotropy, 1-13%. Velocities were measured in three mutually perpendicular directions through the same specimen in 29 of the 40 samples studied. Calcite fabric has been estimated by X-ray pole figure goniometry. The major findings of this study are: 1) Carbonate-bearing deep-sea sediments may be regarded as transversely isotropic media with symmetry axes normal to bedding. 2) Calcite c-axes are weakly concentrated in a direction perpendicular to bedding, but the preferred orientation of calcite does not contribute significantly to velocity anisotropy. 3) The properties of bedded and unbedded samples are distinctly different. Unbedded sediments exhibit low degrees of acoustic anisotropy (1-5%). By contrast, bedded samples show higher degrees of anisotropy (to 13%), and anisotropy increases markedly with depth of burial. Thus, bedding must be regarded as the principal cause of acoustic anisotropy in calcareous, deep-sea sediments.
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We have analysed alkenones in 149 surface sediments from the eastern South Atlantic in order to establish a sediment-based calibration of the U37K' paleotemperature index. Our study covers the major tropical to subpolar production systems and sea-surface temperatures (SST's) between 0° and 27°C. In order to define the most suitable calibration for this region, the U37K' values were correlated to seasonal, annual, and production-weighted annual mean atlas temperatures and compared to previously published culture and core-top calibrations. The best linear correlation between U37K' and SST was obtained using annual mean SST from 0 to 10 m water depth (U37K' = 0.033 T + 0.069, r**2 = 0.981). Data scattering increased significantly using temperatures of waters deeper than 20 m, suggesting that U37K' reflects mixed-layer SST and that alkenone production at thermocline depths was not high enough to significantly bias the mixed-layer signal. Regressions based on both production-weighted and on actual annual mean atlas SST were virtually identical, indicating that regional variations in the seasonality of primary production have no discernible effect on the U37K' vs. SST relationship. Comparison with published core-top calibrations from other oceanic regions revealed a high degree of accordance. We, therefore, established a global core-top calibration using U37K' data from 370 sites between 60°S and 60°N in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans and annual mean atlas SST (0-29°C) from 0 m water depth. The resulting relationship (U37K' = 0.033 T + 0.044, r**2 = 958) is identical within error limits to the widely used E. huxleyi calibrations of and attesting their general applicability. The observation that core-top calibrations extending over various biogeographical coccolithophorid zones are strongly linear and in better accordance than culture calibrations suggests that U37K' is less species-dependent than is indicated by culture experiments. The results also suggest that variations in growth rate of algae and nutrient availability do not significantly affect the sedimentary record of U37K' in open ocean environments.