Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Qualité de vie après traitement de l'insuffisance veineuse superficielle primaire. [Quality of life in patients traited for primary superficial venous insufficiency].

Venous symptoms and quality of life (QOL) of 78 patients (54 women, mean age 49,5±13,3 years) with primary superficial venous insufficiency (PSVI) were compared at one year after treatment with crossectomy and stripping (C/S, 56 patients) or endovenous laser ablation (EVLA, 22 patients) using the VEINES-QOL questionnaire. Both treatments significantly (p<0,001) improved the scores for venous symptoms (difference 10,6±9,9 and 9,9±8,2 score points for C/S and EVLA, respectively) and QOL (difference 10,3±8,7 and 8,4±6,6 score points for C/S and EVLA, respectively). No difference was found between treatments regarding symptoms or QOL improvement (p=0,30). We conclude that C/S and EVLA are equally effective in improving symptoms and QOL in PSVI.

Effects of an early intervention on maternal post-traumatic stress symptoms and the quality of mother-infant interaction: The case of preterm birth

Preterm birth may represent a traumatic situation for both parents and a stressful situation for the infant, potentially leading to difficulties in mother-infant relationships. This study aimed to investigate the impact of an early intervention on maternal posttraumatic stress symptoms, and on the quality of mother-infant interactions, in a sample of very preterm infants and their mothers. Half of the very preterm infants involved in the study (n=26) were randomly assigned to a 3-step early intervention program (at 33 and 42 weeks after conception and at 4 months' corrected age). Both groups of preterm infants (with and without intervention) were compared to a group of full-term infants. The impact of the intervention on maternal posttraumatic stress symptoms was assessed 42 weeks after conception and when the infants were 4 and 12 months of age. The impact of the intervention on the quality of mother-infant interactions was assessed when the infants were 4 months old. Results showed a lowering of mothers' posttraumatic stress symptoms between 42 weeks and 12 months in the group of preterm infants who received the intervention. Moreover, an enhancement in maternal sensitivity and infant cooperation during interactions was found at 4 months in the group with intervention. In the case of a preterm birth, an early intervention aimed at enhancing the quality of the mother-infant relationship can help to alleviate maternal post-traumatic stress symptoms and may have a positive impact on the quality of mother-infant interactions.

Development of Quality Standards for Inclusion of High Recycled Asphalt Pavement Content in Asphalt Mixtures – Phase II, TR-658, 2015

To conserve natural resources and energy, the amount of recycled asphalt pavement has been steadily increasing in the construction of asphalt pavements. The objective of this study is to develop quality standards for inclusion of high RAP content. To determine if the higher percentage of RAP materials can be used on Iowa’s state highways, three test sections with target amounts of RAP materials of 30%, 35% and 40% by weight were constructed on Highway 6 in Iowa City. To meet Superpave mix design requirements for mixtures with high RAP contents, it was necessary to fractionate the RAP materials. Three test sections with actual RAP materials of 30.0%, 35.5% and 39.2% by weight were constructed and the average field densities from the cores were measured as 95.3%, 94.0%, and 94.3%, respectively. Field mixtures were compacted in the laboratory to evaluate moisture sensitivity using a Hamburg Wheel Tracking Device. After 20,000 passes, rut depths were less than 3mm for mixtures obtained from three test sections. The binder was extracted from the field mixtures from each test section and tested to identify the effects of RAP materials on the performance grade of the virgin binder. Based on Dynamic Shear Rheometer and Bending Beam Rheometer tests, the virgin binders (PG 64-28) from test sections with 30.0%, 35.5% and 39.2% RAP materials were stiffened to PG 76-22, PG 76-16, and PG 82-16, respectively. The Semi-Circular Bending (SCB) test was performed on laboratory compacted field mixtures with RAP amounts of 30.0%, 35.5% and 39.2% at two different temperatures of -18 and -30 °C. As the test temperature decreased, the fracture energy decreased and the stiffness increased. As the RAP amount increased, the stiffness increased and the fracture energy decreased. Finally, a condition survey of the test sections was conducted to evaluate their short-term pavement performance and the reflective transverse cracking did not increase as RAP amount was increased from 30.0% to 39.2%.

Assessment of Nondestructive Testing Technologies for Quality Control/Quality Assurance of Asphalt Mixtures, TR-653, 2015

Asphalt pavements suffer various failures due to insufficient quality within their design lives. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) has been proposed to improve pavement quality through quantitative performance prediction. Evaluation of the actual performance (quality) of pavements requires in situ nondestructive testing (NDT) techniques that can accurately measure the most critical, objective, and sensitive properties of pavement systems. The purpose of this study is to assess existing as well as promising new NDT technologies for quality control/quality assurance (QC/QA) of asphalt mixtures. Specifically, this study examined field measurements of density via the PaveTracker electromagnetic gage, shear-wave velocity via surface-wave testing methods, and dynamic stiffness via the Humboldt GeoGauge for five representative paving projects covering a range of mixes and traffic loads. The in situ tests were compared against laboratory measurements of core density and dynamic modulus. The in situ PaveTracker density had a low correlation with laboratory density and was not sensitive to variations in temperature or asphalt mix type. The in situ shear-wave velocity measured by surface-wave methods was most sensitive to variations in temperature and asphalt mix type. The in situ density and in situ shear-wave velocity were combined to calculate an in situ dynamic modulus, which is a performance-based quality measurement. The in situ GeoGauge stiffness measured on hot asphalt mixtures several hours after paving had a high correlation with the in situ dynamic modulus and the laboratory density, whereas the stiffness measurement of asphalt mixtures cooled with dry ice or at ambient temperature one or more days after paving had a very low correlation with the other measurements. To transform the in situ moduli from surface-wave testing into quantitative quality measurements, a QC/QA procedure was developed to first correct the in situ moduli measured at different field temperatures to the moduli at a common reference temperature based on master curves from laboratory dynamic modulus tests. The corrected in situ moduli can then be compared against the design moduli for an assessment of the actual pavement performance. A preliminary study of microelectromechanical systems- (MEMS)-based sensors for QC/QA and health monitoring of asphalt pavements was also performed.

Heterosis in crosses among white grain maize populations with high quality protein

The objective of this work was to investigate heterosis and its components in 16 white grain maize populations presenting high quality protein. These populations were divided according to grain type in order to establish different heterosis groups. The crosses were carried out according to a partial diallel cross design among flint and dent populations. Seven agronomic traits were evaluated in three environments while four leaf diseases and incidence of corn stunt were evaluated in one. Least square procedure was applied to the normal equation X'Xbeta = X'Y, to estimate the model effects and their respective sum of squares. Among the heterosis components, in diallel analysis, significance for average heterosis in grain yield, number of days to female flowering and to all evaluated diseases was detected. Specific heterosis was significant for days to female flowering and resistance to Puccinia polysora. Results concerned to grain yield trait indicate that populations with superior performance in dent group, no matter what flint population group is used in crosses, tend to generate superior intervarietal hybrids. In decreasing order of preference, the dent type populations CMS 476, ZQP/B 103 and ZQP/B 101 and the flint type CMS 461, CMS 460, ZQP/B 104 and ZQP/B 102 are recommended to form composites.

Qualité et économies: vont-elles de pair [Quality and saving: do they run together?]

In the healthcare debate, it is often stated that better quality leads to savings. Quality systems lead to additional costs for setting up, running and external evaluations. In addition, suppression of implicit rationing leads to additional costs. On the other hand, they lead to savings by procedures simplification, improvement of patients' health state and quicker integration of new collaborators. It is then logical to imagine that financial incentives could improve quality. First evidences of pay for performances initiatives show a positive impact but also some limitations. Quality and savings are linked together and require all our attention.

High pressure processing of swede (Brassica napus): Impact on quality properties

The effects of combined pressure/temperature treatments (200, 400 and 600 MPa, at 20 and 40 °C) on the physical and nutritional properties of swede roots (Brassica napus var. napobrassica) were assessed. Changes induced by high pressure processing (HPP) on the original properties of swede samples were compared with those produced by thermal treatment (blanching). All studied treatments altered the physical properties of swede, resulting in a loss of hardness and water binding capacity. The strongest alteration of texture was observed after HPP at 400 MPa, while 600 MPa was the treatment that better preserved the texture properties of swede. Blanching caused less total colour changes (ΔE) than HPP. Antioxidant properties of swede were measured as total antioxidant capacity, ascorbic acid and total phenol content. All treatments caused a loss of antioxidant capacity, which was less pronounced after HPP at 600 MPa and 20 °C and blanching. Four glucosinolates were detected in swede roots, glucoraphanin, progoitrin, glucobrassicanapin and glucobrassicin. Glucobrassicanapin and glucobrassicin contents were reduced with all studied treatments. Progoitrin content was not affected by blanching and HPP at 200 MPa. HPP at higher pressure levels (400 and 600 MPa), though, induced an increase of progoitrin levels. The results indicated that blanching and HPP at 600 MPa and 20 °C were the treatments that better preserved the original quality properties of swede.

The gendering of excellence through quality criteria: the case of the SNSF Professorships in Switzerland

The Swiss National Science Foundation Professorships Programme is presented as a scientific programme that aims to promote outstanding young scholars to professorial positions. Academic excellence is presented as the main selection criterion. The emphasis put on the research portfolio and on the age of the candidates means that the beneficiaries of these professorships put forward an image of excellence that is more embedded in data-based sciences than in the humanities and social sciences, thus strengthening the domination of a sector scientific activity essentially occupied by men over the sector that has opened up more widely to women. This paper aims to deconstruct the criteria of academic excellence as they appear in this programme and to show that what seem quality criteria are in fact inspired by a specific androcentric model. These biases tend to undermine the gender equality aims of the programme.

Forage yield and quality of a dense thorny and thornless "jurema-preta" stand

The objective of this work was to compare forage production and quality of thorny and thornless "jurema-preta" (Mimosa tenuiflora (Willd.) Poiret) in a dense planted stand, subjected to annual pruning of fine branches, in Patos, PB, Brazil. The experiment consisted of two treatments (thornless and thorny "jurema-preta") in a complete randomized block design, with ten replicates of two linear plots subdivided in time. Forage mass and chemical composition of fine branches and the basal diameter of plants were measured during five years. Pruning decreased (p<0.05) increments in basal diameter and forage production. Annual dry matter yields reached 4,108 and 5,833 kg ha-1, respectively, for thornless and thorny plants, and forage quality was similar (p>0.05) for both genotypes. This roughage fodder (minimum NDF and ADF averages were 56±1.1% and 43±1.0%, respectively) had low P and K concentrations. Its average crude protein content was greater than 9.9±0.5%, which exceeds the minimum necessary for animal maintenance. Both "jurema-preta" genotypes tolerated pruning of fine branches and contributed with a significant amount of roughage fodder for animal maintenance in the dry season.

cGMP-dependent protein kinase type I is implicated in the regulation of the timing and quality of sleep and wakefulness.

Many effects of nitric oxide (NO) are mediated by the activation of guanylyl cyclases and subsequent production of the second messenger cyclic guanosine-3',5'-monophosphate (cGMP). cGMP activates cGMP-dependent protein kinases (PRKGs), which can therefore be considered downstream effectors of NO signaling. Since NO is thought to be involved in the regulation of both sleep and circadian rhythms, we analyzed these two processes in mice deficient for cGMP-dependent protein kinase type I (PRKG1) in the brain. Prkg1 mutant mice showed a strikingly altered distribution of sleep and wakefulness over the 24 hours of a day as well as reductions in rapid-eye-movement sleep (REMS) duration and in non-REM sleep (NREMS) consolidation, and their ability to sustain waking episodes was compromised. Furthermore, they displayed a drastic decrease in electroencephalogram (EEG) power in the delta frequency range (1-4 Hz) under baseline conditions, which could be normalized after sleep deprivation. In line with the re-distribution of sleep and wakefulness, the analysis of wheel-running and drinking activity revealed more rest bouts during the activity phase and a higher percentage of daytime activity in mutant animals. No changes were observed in internal period length and phase-shifting properties of the circadian clock while chi-squared periodogram amplitude was significantly reduced, hinting at a less robust oscillator. These results indicate that PRKG1 might be involved in the stabilization and output strength of the circadian oscillator in mice. Moreover, PRKG1 deficiency results in an aberrant pattern, and consequently a reduced quality, of sleep and wakefulness, possibly due to a decreased wake-promoting output of the circadian system impinging upon sleep.

The nine-year sustained cost-containment impact of swiss pilot physicians-pharmacists quality circles.

BACKGROUND: Six pioneer physicians-pharmacists quality circles (PPQCs) located in the Swiss canton of Fribourg (administratively corresponding to a state in the US) were under the responsibility of 6 trained community pharmacists moderating the prescribing process of 24 general practitioners (GPs). PPQCs are based on a multifaceted collaborative process mediated by community pharmacists for improving compliance with clinical guidelines within GPs' prescribing practices. OBJECTIVE: To assess, over a 9-year period (1999-2007), the cost-containment impact of the PPQCs. METHODS: The key elements of PPQCs are a structured continuous quality improvement and education process; local networking; feedback of comparative and detailed data regarding costs, drug choice, and frequency of prescribed drugs; and structured independent literature review for interdisciplinary continuing education. The data are issued from the community pharmacy invoices to the health insurance companies. The study analyzed the cost-containment impact of the PPQCs in comparison with GPs working in similar conditions of care without particular collaboration with pharmacists, the percentage of generic prescriptions for specific cardiovascular drug classes, and the percentage of drug costs or units prescribed for specific cardiovascular drugs. RESULTS: For the 9-year period, there was a 42% decrease in the drug costs in the PPQC group as compared to the control group, representing a $225,000 (USD) savings per GP only in 2007. These results are explained by better compliance with clinical and pharmacovigilance guidelines, larger distribution of generic drugs, a more balanced attitude toward marketing strategies, and interdisciplinary continuing education on the rational use of drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The PPQC work process has yielded sustainable results, such as significant cost savings, higher penetration of generics and reflection on patient safety, and the place of "new" drugs in therapy. The PPQCs may also constitute a solid basis for implementing more comprehensive collaborative programs, such as medication reviews, adherence-enhancing interventions, or disease management approaches.

MOS-SF-36 in evaluating health-related quality of life in alcohol-dependent patients.

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was evaluated in a sample of alcohol-dependent patients with the 36-item Medical Outcome Study Short-Form Health Survey (MOS-SF-36). The instrument was administered to 147 patients (77% males), aged 26-78, with a DSM-III-R diagnosis of alcohol dependence. The Hamilton Depression Scale (HDS), the Severity of Alcohol Dependence Questionnaire (SADQ), and the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) were also administered to the first 100 patients included in the study. The reliability and validity of the MOS-SF-36 were evaluated. Test-retest intraclass coefficients for a 10-day interval were in the range .65 to .79, whereas the Cronbach alpha coefficient indicated good internal consistency (range .70 to .89). Compared to scores observed in the general population, MOS-SF-36 scores for alcohol-dependent patients were relatively low (indicating worse perception of HRQoL), especially in the psychological and role dimensions (range 52/100 to 55/100), but were closer to populational values in the physical and functional dimensions (range 61/100 to 75/100)). The highest correlation between MOS-SF-36 dimensions and HDS was found in the MOS-SF-36 &quot;mental health&quot; dimension (r=-.56, p &lt; .001); this dimension was also correlated highly with the psychiatric dimension of the ASI (r=-.73, p &lt; .001). The eight dimensions of the MOS-SF-36 were 21% to 127% lower in patients with HDS greater than or equal to 16 (major depression) compared to those with HDS less than or equal to 7 (absence of depression). The MOS-SF-36 dimensions were 10% to 141% lower in patients with high &quot;ASI alcohol&quot; scores, indicating worse HRQoL profiles with a higher severity of alcohol dependence. The MOS-SF-36 presents good criteria for reliability and validity in alcohol-dependent patients. The results suggested that alcohol-dependent patients perceived their problems more as psychological than physical. The severity of alcohol dependence and depression seemed to influence the perception of HRQoL negatively.

Embankment Quality Phase IV: Application to Unsuitable Soils, TR-492, 2007

The Quality Management Earthwork (QM-E) special provision was implemented on a pilot project to evaluate quality control (QC) and quality assurance (QA) testing in predominately unsuitable soils. Control limits implemented on this pilot project included the following: 95% relative compaction, moisture content not exceeding +/- 2% of optimum moisture content, soil strength not exceeding a dynamic cone penetrometer (DCP) index of 70 mm/blow, vertical uniformity not exceeding a variation in DCP index of 40 mm/blow, and lift thickness not exceeding depth determined through construction of control strips. Four-point moving averages were used to allow for some variability in the measured parameter values. Management of the QC/QA data proved to be one of the most challenging aspects of the pilot project. Implementing use of the G-RAD data collection system has considerable potential to reduce the time required to develop and maintain QC/QA records for projects using the QM-E special provision. In many cases, results of a single Proctor test were used to establish control limits that were used for several months without retesting. While the data collected for the pilot project indicated that the DCP index control limits could be set more tightly, there is not enough evidence to support making a change. In situ borings, sampling, and testing in natural unsuitable cut material and compacted fill material revealed that the compacted fill had similar strength characteristics to that of the natural cut material after less than three months from the start of construction.