Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

Simulating the formation of secondary organic aerosol from the photooxidation of aromatic hydrocarbons

The formation and composition of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from the photooxidation of benzene, p-xylene, and 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene has been simulated using the Master Chemical Mechanism version 3.1 (MCM v3.1) coupled to a representation of the transfer of organic material from the gas to particle phase. The combined mechanism was tested against data obtained from a series of experiments conducted at the European Photoreactor (EUPHORE) outdoor smog chamber in Valencia, Spain. Simulated aerosol mass concentrations compared reasonably well with the measured SOA data only after absorptive partitioning coefficients were increased by a factor of between 5 and 30. The requirement of such scaling was interpreted in terms of the occurrence of unaccounted-for association reactions in the condensed organic phase leading to the production of relatively more nonvolatile species. Comparisons were made between the relative aerosol forming efficiencies of benzene, toluene, p-xylene, and 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene, and differences in the OH-initiated degradation mechanisms of these aromatic hydrocarbons. A strong, nonlinear relationship was observed between measured (reference) yields of SOA and (proportional) yields of unsaturated dicarbonyl aldehyde species resulting from ring-fragmenting pathways. This observation, and the results of the simulations, is strongly suggestive of the involvement of reactive aldehyde species in association reactions occurring in the aerosol phase, thus promoting SOA formation and growth. The effect of NO, concentrations on SOA formation efficiencies (and formation mechanisms) is discussed.

Quartz crystal microbalance monitoring of density changes in mesoporous TiO2 phytate films during redox and ion exchange processes

Nanofilm deposits of TiO2 nanoparticle phytates are formed on gold electrode surfaces by 'directed assembly' methods. Alternate exposure of a 3-mercapto-propionic acid modified gold surface to (i) a TiO2 sol and (ii) an aqueous phytic acid solution (pH 3) results in layer-by-layer formation of a mesoporous film. Ru(NH3)(6)(3+) is shown to strongly adsorb/accumulate into the mesoporous structure whilst remaining electrochemically active. Scanning the electrode potential into a sufficiently negative potential range allows the Ru(NH3)(6)(3+) complex to be reduced to Ru(NH3)(6)(2+) which undergoes immediate desorption. When applied to a gold coated quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) sensor, electrochemically driven adsorption and desorption processes in the mesoporous structure become directly detectable as a frequency response, which corresponds directly to a mass or density change in the membrane. The frequency response (at least for thin films) is proportional to the thickness of the mass-responsive film, which suggests good mechanical coupling between electrode and film. Based on this observation, a method for the amplified QCM detection of small mass/density changes is proposed by conducting measurements in rigid mesoporous structures. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Dihydrogen in cation-substituted zeolites X - an inelastic neutron scattering study

An inelastic neutron scattering (INS) study of the rotational - vibrational spectrum of dihydrogen sorbed by zeolite X having substituted sodium, calcium and zinc cations is reported. The rotational - vibrational spectrum of H-2 was observed at low energy transfer ( below ca. 25 meV, 202 cm(-1)); the vibration was that of the H-2 molecule against the binding site (H-2 - X, not H - H). The vibration frequency was proportional to the polarising power of the cation (Na+ < Ca2+ < Zn2+). Polarisation of the H-2 molecule dominated the interaction of H-2 with this binding site. The total scattering intensity was proportional to the dihydrogen dose. However the vibrational intensities became constant at ca. 0.3 wt% showing that the H-2 binding sites had saturated. Additional dihydrogen appeared as unbound or weakly bound dihydrogen exhibiting recoil.

Influence of environmental stress on distributions of times to first division in Escherichia coli populations, as determined by digital-image analysis of individual cells

The distributions of times to first cell division were determined for populations of Escherichia coli stationary-phase cells inoculated onto agar media. This was accomplished by using automated analysis of digital images of individual cells growing on agar and calculation of the "box area ratio." Using approximately 300 cells per experiment, the mean time to first division and standard deviation for cells grown in liquid medium at 37 degrees C and inoculated on agar and incubated at 20 degrees C were determined as 3.0 h and 0.7 h, respectively. Distributions were observed to tail toward the higher values, but no definitive model distribution was identified. Both preinoculation stress by heating cultures at 50 degrees C and postinoculation stress by growth in the presence of higher concentrations of NaCl increased mean times to first division. Both stresses also resulted in an increase in the spread of the distributions that was proportional to the mean division time, the coefficient of variation being constant at approximately 0.2 in all cases. The "relative division time," which is the time to first division for individual cells expressed in terms of the cell size doubling time, was used as measure of the "work to be done" to prepare for cell division. Relative division times were greater for heat-stressed cells than for those growing under osmotic stress.

The activity of ribosome modulation factor during growth of Escherichia coli under acidic conditions

Expression of the gene encoding ribosome modulation factor (RMF), as measured using an rmf-lacZ gene fusion, increased with decreasing pH in exponential phase cultures of Escherichia coli. Expression was inversely proportional to the growth rate and independent of the acidifying agent used and it was concluded that expression of rmf was growth rate controlled in exponential phase under acid conditions. Increased rmf expression during exponential phase was not accompanied by the formation of ribosome dimers as occurs during stationary phase. Nor did it appear to have a significant effect on cell survival under acid stress since the vulnerability of an RMF-deficient mutant strain was similar to that of the parent strain. Ribosome degradation was increased in the mutant strain compared to the parent strain at pH 3.75. Also, the peptide elongation rate was reduced in the mutant strain but not the parent during growth under acid conditions. It is speculated that the function of RMF during stress-induced reduction in growth rate is two-fold: firstly to prevent reduced elongation efficiency by inactivating surplus ribosomes and thus limiting competition for available protein synthesis factors, and secondly to protect inactivated ribosomes from degradation.

Effect of temperature and salt on the maturation of white-salted cheese

White-salted cheeses were prepared from ultrafiltered (UF) cows' milk and salted to give final salt-in-moisture (SM) levels of 2.5, 3.2 and 4.0%. The cheeses were stored at 5degreesC and 10degreesC for up to 15 weeks. The microflora was dominated by lactic acid bacteria (LAB) but some mould growth was evident within 15 weeks at all SM levels and both temperatures. Levels of water-soluble nitrogen (WSN), attributed to chymosin activity, increased significantly with time, the rate being inversely proportional to the SM level and increasing with storage temperature. Similar effects were noted for trichloroacetic acid-soluble nitrogen (TCA-SN) and free amino acid (FAA) levels, both of which would also be affected by bacterial protease activity. The proteolytic activity was reflected by changes in the hardness and fracturability of the cheeses.

Analysis of the dominant enterprise information assurance mechanisms

The purpose of this study is to analyse current data continuity mechanisms employed by the target group of businesses and to identify any inadequacies in the mechanisms as a whole. The questionnaire responses indicate that 47% of respondents do perceive backup methodologies as important, with a total of 70% of respondents having some backup methodology already in place. Businesses in Moulton Park perceive the loss of data to have a significant effect upon their business’ ability to function. Only 14% of respondents indicated that loss of data on computer systems would not affect their business at all, with 54% of respondents indicating that there would be either a “major effect” (or greater) on their ability to operate. Respondents that have experienced data loss were more likely to have backup methodologies in place (53%) than respondents that had not experienced data loss (18%). Although the number of respondents clearly affected the quality and conclusiveness of the results returned, the level of backup methodologies in place appears to be proportional to the company size. Further investigation is recommended into the subject in order to validate the information gleaned from the small number of respondents.

Autonomous intelligent cruise control using a novel multiple-controller framework incorporating fuzzy-logic-based switching and tuning

This paper presents a novel intelligent multiple-controller framework incorporating a fuzzy-logic-based switching and tuning supervisor along with a generalised learning model (GLM) for an autonomous cruise control application. The proposed methodology combines the benefits of a conventional proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller, and a PID structure-based (simultaneous) zero and pole placement controller. The switching decision between the two nonlinear fixed structure controllers is made on the basis of the required performance measure using a fuzzy-logic-based supervisor, operating at the highest level of the system. The supervisor is also employed to adaptively tune the parameters of the multiple controllers in order to achieve the desired closed-loop system performance. The intelligent multiple-controller framework is applied to the autonomous cruise control problem in order to maintain a desired vehicle speed by controlling the throttle plate angle in an electronic throttle control (ETC) system. Sample simulation results using a validated nonlinear vehicle model are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the multiple-controller with respect to adaptively tracking the desired vehicle speed changes and achieving the desired speed of response, whilst penalising excessive control action. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Buffering of recovery from acidification by organic acids

In the United Kingdom, as in other regions of Europe and North America, recent decreases in surface water sulphate concentrations, due to reduced sulphur emissions, have coincided with marked increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations. Since many of the compounds comprising DOC are acidic, the resulting increases in organic acidity may have the potential to offset the benefits of a decrease in mineral (sulphate) acidity. To test this, we used a triprotic model of organic acid dissociation to estimate the proportional organic acid buffering of reduced mineral acidity as measured in the 22 lakes and streams monitored by the UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network. For an average non-marine sulphate decrease of 30 μeq l− 1 over 15 years from 1988–2003, we estimate that around 28% was counterbalanced by rising strong organic acids, 20% by rising alkalinity (partly attributable to an increase in weak organic acids), 11% by falling inorganic aluminium and 41% by falling non-marine base cations. The situation is complicated by a concurrent decrease in marine ion concentrations, and the impact this may have had on both DOC and acidity, but results clearly demonstrate that organic acid increases have substantially limited the amount of recovery from acidification (in terms of rising alkalinity and falling aluminium) that have resulted from reducing sulphur emissions. The consistency and magnitude of sulphate and organic acid changes are consistent with a causal link between the two, possibly due to the effects of changing acidity, ionic strength and aluminium concentrations on organic matter solubility. If this is the case, then organic acids can be considered effective but partial buffers to acidity change in organic soils, and this mechanism needs to be considered in assessing and modelling recovery from acidification, and in defining realistic reference conditions. However, large spatial variations in the relative magnitude of organic acid and sulphate changes, notably for low-deposition sites in northwestern areas where organic acid increases apparently exceed non-marine sulphate decreases, suggest that additional factors, such as changes in sea-salt deposition and climatic factors, may be required to explain the full magnitude of DOC increases in UK surface waters.

Multimetallic ruthenium(II) complexes as electrochemiluminescent labels

Two homometallic complexes containing two and three ruthenium polypyridyl units linked by amino acid lysine (Lys) and the related dipeptide (LysLys) were synthesized and their electrochemical, spectroscopic, and electrochemiluminescence (ECL) properties were investigated. The electrochemical and photophysical data indicate that the two metal complexes largely retain the electronic properties of the reference compound for the separate ruthenium moieties in the two bridged complexes, [4-carboxypropyl-4'-methyl-2,2'-bipyridine]bis(2,2'-bipyridine)ruthenium(II) complex. The ECL studies, performed in aqueous media in the presence of tri-n-propylamine as co-reactant, show that the ECL intensity increases by 30% for the dinuclear and trinuclear complexes compared to the reference. Heterogeneous ECL immunoassay studies, performed on larger dendritic complexes containing up to eight ruthenium units, demonstrate that limitations due to the slow diffusion can easily be overcome by means of nanoparticle technology. In this case, the ECL signal is proportional to the number of ruthenium units. Multimetallic systems with several ruthenium centers may, however, undergo nonspecific bonding,to streptavidin-coated particles or to antibodies, thereby increasing the background ECL intensity and lowering the sensitivity of the immunoassay.

The power of NMR. Part 1: the beginnings

Nuclear mnagnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy involves the excitation of nuclei by electromagnetic radiation in the radio-frequency range of the electromagnetic spectrum. For a nucleus to absorb energy from radiowaves in this way, it must hve the quantum mechanical property of spin. A spinning nucleus, such as that of the hydrogen atom, will dopt one f only two possible states when placed in a magnetic field. (In NMR, the hydrogen nucleus is often referred to as a proton, and is given the abbreviation 1H.) Az the strength of the magnetic field is increased, there is a proportional increase in the energy 'gap' between these two states. We can predic the resonant frequency at which any spinning nucleus will absorb energy from radio-frequency radiation as it jumps from the lower energy state to the upper state.

Minimising the latency induced by consistency control, within a large scale multi-user distributed virtual reality system

Where users are interacting in a distributed virtual environment, the actions of each user must be observed by peers with sufficient consistency and within a limited delay so as not to be detrimental to the interaction. The consistency control issue may be split into three parts: update control; consistent enactment and evolution of events; and causal consistency. The delay in the presentation of events, termed latency, is primarily dependent on the network propagation delay and the consistency control algorithms. The latency induced by the consistency control algorithm, in particular causal ordering, is proportional to the number of participants. This paper describes how the effect of network delays may be reduced and introduces a scalable solution that provides sufficient consistency control while minimising its effect on latency. The principles described have been developed at Reading over the past five years. Similar principles are now emerging in the simulation community through the HLA standard. This paper attempts to validate the suggested principles within the schema of distributed simulation and virtual environments and to compare and contrast with those described by the HLA definition documents.

Moisture vertical structure, column water vapor, and tropical deep convection

The vertical structure of the relationship between water vapor and precipitation is analyzed in 5 yr of radiosonde and precipitation gauge data from the Nauru Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. The first vertical principal component of specific humidity is very highly correlated with column water vapor (CWV) and has a maximum of both total and fractional variance captured in the lower free troposphere (around 800 hPa). Moisture profiles conditionally averaged on precipitation show a strong association between rainfall and moisture variability in the free troposphere and little boundary layer variability. A sharp pickup in precipitation occurs near a critical value of CWV, confirming satellite-based studies. A lag–lead analysis suggests it is unlikely that the increase in water vapor is just a result of the falling precipitation. To investigate mechanisms for the CWV–precipitation relationship, entraining plume buoyancy is examined in sonde data and simplified cases. For several different mixing schemes, higher CWV results in progressively greater plume buoyancies, particularly in the upper troposphere, indicating conditions favorable for deep convection. All other things being equal, higher values of lower-tropospheric humidity, via entrainment, play a major role in this buoyancy increase. A small but significant increase in subcloud layer moisture with increasing CWV also contributes to buoyancy. Entrainment coefficients inversely proportional to distance from the surface, associated with mass flux increase through a deep lower-tropospheric layer, appear promising. These yield a relatively even weighting through the lower troposphere for the contribution of environmental water vapor to midtropospheric buoyancy, explaining the association of CWV and buoyancy available for deep convection.

Finite departure from convective quasi-equilibrium: periodic cycle and discharge-recharge mechanism

A simple self–contained theory is proposed for describing life cycles of convective systems as a discharge–recharge process. A closed description is derived for the dynamics of an ensemble of convective plumes based on an energy cycle. The system consists of prognostic equations for the cloud work function and the convective kinetic energy. The system can be closed by intro ducing a functional relationship between the convective kinetic energy and the cloud–base mass flux. The behaviour of this system is considered under a bulk simplification. Previous cloud–resolving mo delling as well as bulk statistical theories for ensemble convective systems suggest that a plausible relationship would be to assume that the convective kinetic energy is linearly proportional to the cloud–base mass flux. As a result, the system reduces to a nonlinear dynamical system with two dependent variables, the cloud–base mass flux and the cloud work function. The fully nonlinear solution of this system always represents a periodic cycle regardless of the initial condition under constant large–scale forcing. Importantly, the inclusion of energy dissipation in this model does not in itself lead the system to an equilibrium.