Risk Analysis and Behavior of Electricity Portfolio Aggregator

The scope of this paper is to adapt the standard mean-variance model of Henry Markowitz theory, creating a simulation tool to find the optimal configuration of the portfolio aggregator, calculate its profitability and risk. Currently, there is a deep discussion going on among the power system society about the structure and architecture of the future electric system. In this environment, policy makers and electric utilities find new approaches to access the electricity market; this configures new challenging positions in order to find innovative strategies and methodologies. Decentralized power generation is gaining relevance in liberalized markets, and small and medium size electricity consumers are also become producers (“prosumers”). In this scenario an electric aggregator is an entity that joins a group of electric clients, customers, producers, “prosumers” together as a single purchasing unit to negotiate the purchase and sale of electricity. The aggregator conducts research on electricity prices, contract terms and conditions in order to promote better energy prices for their clients and allows small and medium customers to benefit improved market prices.

Detection of quasi-periodic processes in complex systems: how do we quantitatively describe their properties?

It has been shown that in reality at least two general scenarios of data structuring are possible: (a) a self-similar (SS) scenario when the measured data form an SS structure and (b) a quasi-periodic (QP) scenario when the repeated (strongly correlated) data form random sequences that are almost periodic with respect to each other. In the second case it becomes possible to describe their behavior and express a part of their randomness quantitatively in terms of the deterministic amplitude–frequency response belonging to the generalized Prony spectrum. This possibility allows us to re-examine the conventional concept of measurements and opens a new way for the description of a wide set of different data. In particular, it concerns different complex systems when the ‘best-fit’ model pretending to be the description of the data measured is absent but the barest necessity of description of these data in terms of the reduced number of quantitative parameters exists. The possibilities of the proposed approach and detection algorithm of the QP processes were demonstrated on actual data: spectroscopic data recorded for pure water and acoustic data for a test hole. The suggested methodology allows revising the accepted classification of different incommensurable and self-affine spatial structures and finding accurate interpretation of the generalized Prony spectroscopy that includes the Fourier spectroscopy as a partial case.

Marketing : a (ir)racionalidade dos consumidores, numa perspetiva empreendedora

Mestrado em Gestão e Empreendedorismo

Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

Kinetic behavior of Desulfovibrio gigas aldehyde oxidoreductase encapsulated in reverse micelles

Biochemical and Biophysical Research Communications 308 (2003) 73–78

Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process. Experience from Portugal

The foresight and scenario building methods can be an interesting reference for social sciences, especially in terms of innovative methods for labour process analysis. A scenario – as a central concept for the prospective analysis – can be considered as a rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world. It can be a useful tool for policy-makers to grasp problems clearly and comprehensively, and to better pinpoint challenges as well as opportunities in an overall framework. The features of the foresight methods are being used in some labour policy making experiences. Case studies developed in Portugal will be presented, and some conclusions will be drawn in order to organise a set of principles for foresight analysis applied to the European project WORKS on the work organisation re-structuring in the knowledge society, and on the work design methods for new management structures of virtual organisations.

Performance of concrete made with aggregates recycled from precasting industry waste: influence of the crushing process

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the influence of the crushing process used to obtain recycled concrete aggregates on the performance of concrete made with those aggregates. Two crushing methods were considered: primary crushing, using a jaw crusher, and primary plus secondary crushing (PSC), using a jaw crusher followed by a hammer mill. Besides natural aggregates (NA), these two processes were also used to crush three types of concrete made in laboratory (L20, L45 e L65) and three more others from the precast industry (P20, P45 e P65). The coarse natural aggregates were totally replaced by coarse recycled concrete aggregates. The recycled aggregates concrete mixes were compared with reference concrete mixes made using only NA, and the following properties related to the mechanical and durability performance were tested: compressive strength; splitting tensile strength; modulus of elasticity; carbonation resistance; chloride penetration resistance; water absorption by capillarity; water absorption by immersion; and shrinkage. The results show that the PSC process leads to better performances, especially in the durability properties. © 2014 RILEM

A complex protocol layer as a linux user-space process

With the current complexity of communication protocols, implementing its layers totally in the kernel of the operating system is too cumbersome, and it does not allow use of the capabilities only available in user space processes. However, building protocols as user space processes must not impair the responsiveness of the communication. Therefore, in this paper we present a layer of a communication protocol, which, due to its complexity, was implemented in a user space process. Lower layers of the protocol are, for responsiveness issues, implemented in the kernel. This protocol was developed to support large-scale power-line communication (PLC) with timing requirements.

Comparative study about heating systems for pultrusion process

Different heating systems have been used in pultrusion, where the most widely used heaters are planar resistances. The primary objective of this study was to develop an improved heating system and compare its performance with that of a system with planar resistances. In this study, thermography was used to better understand the temperature profile along the die. Finite element analysis was performed to determine the amount of energy consumed by the heating systems. Improvements were made to the die to test the new heating system, and it was found that the new system reduced the setup time and energy consumption by approximately 57%.

Market power analysis in the Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations model

In the last years the electricity industry has faced a restructuring process. Among the aims of this process was the increase in competition, especially in the generation activity where firms would have an incentive to become more efficient. However, the competitive behavior of generating firms might jeopardize the expected benefits of the electricity industry liberalization. The present paper proposes a conjectural variations model to study the competitive behavior of generating firms acting in liberalized electricity markets. The model computes a parameter that represents the degree of competition of each generating firm in each trading period. In this regard, the proposed model provides a powerful methodology for regulatory and competition authorities to monitor the competitive behavior of generating firms. As an application of the model, a study of the day-ahead Iberian electricity market (MIBEL) was conducted to analyze the impact of the integration of the Portuguese and Spanish electricity markets on the behavior of generating firms taking into account the hourly results of the months of June and July of 2007. The advantages of the proposed methodology over other methodologies used to address market power, namely Residual Supply index and Lerner index are highlighted. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overcoming the objectification of western classical music with the concept of music as a process

Dissertation to obtain the degree of Master in Music - Artistic Interpretation

Validation of psychosocial scales for physical activity in university students

OBJECTIVE Translate the Patient-centered Assessment and Counseling for Exercise questionnaire, adapt it cross-culturally and identify the psychometric properties of the psychosocial scales for physical activity in young university students.METHODS The Patient-centered Assessment and Counseling for Exercise questionnaire is made up of 39 items divided into constructs based on the social cognitive theory and the transtheoretical model. The analyzed constructs were, as follows: behavior change strategy (15 items), decision-making process (10), self-efficacy (6), support from family (4), and support from friends (4). The validation procedures were conceptual, semantic, operational, and functional equivalences, in addition to the equivalence of the items and of measurements. The conceptual, of items and semantic equivalences were performed by a specialized committee. During measurement equivalence, the instrument was applied to 717 university students. Exploratory factor analysis was used to verify the loading of each item, explained variance and internal consistency of the constructs. Reproducibility was measured by means of intraclass correlation coefficient.RESULTS The two translations were equivalent and back-translation was similar to the original version, with few adaptations. The layout, presentation order of the constructs and items from the original version were kept in the same form as the original instrument. The sample size was adequate and was evaluated by the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test, with values between 0.72 and 0.91. The correlation matrix of the items presented r < 0.8 (p < 0.05). The factor loadings of the items from all the constructs were satisfactory (> 0.40), varying between 0.43 and 0.80, which explained between 45.4% and 59.0% of the variance. Internal consistency was satisfactory (α ≥ 0.70), with support from friends being 0.70 and 0.92 for self-efficacy. Most items (74.3%) presented values above 0.70 for the reproducibility test.CONCLUSIONS The validation process steps were considered satisfactory and adequate for applying to the population.

Catalytic behavior of alkali-treated Pt/HMOR n-hexane hydroisomerization

Bifunctional Pt-HMOR catalysts were prepared by incipient wetness impregnation of various desilicated MOR obtained by alkaline treatment using NaOH concentrations ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 M. The zeolite structural changes upon modification were investigated by several techniques including powder X-ray diffraction,Al-27 and Si-29 MAS-NMR spectroscopy, N-2 adsorption, pyridine adsorption followed by infrared spectroscopy and the catalytic model reaction of m-xylene transformation. For low alkaline concentration the zeolite acidity is preserved, along with a slight increase of the volume correspondent to the larger micropores due to the removal of extra-framework debris already existent at the parent zeolite. At higher NaOH concentrations there is a significant loss of crystalinity and acidity as well as the formation of mesoporosity. The characterization of the metal function shows similar patterns for Pt-HMOR and Pt-M/0.1 samples, with Pt particles located mainly inside the inner porosity. In contrast, large Pt particles become visible at the intercrystalline mesoporosity of MOR crystals developed during the desilication treatments at severe alkaline conditions. The catalytic results obtained for n-hexane hydroisomerization showed an improved selectivity for dibranched over monobranched isomers for Pt-M/0.1 sample, likely due to the preservation of the support acidity and the slight enlargement of the micropores. This work is a new example in which the mesoporous development does not improve the catalytic efficiency of the zeolites, whereas mild alkaline desilication might be considered as an effective solution to produce customized catalysts with enhanced performance for a given application. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical reaction network of flavylium ions in heterogeneous media

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Química, especialidade em Química-Física, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia