Computational modelling of non-equilibrium condensing steam flows in low-pressure steam turbines

The steam turbines play a significant role in global power generation. Especially, research on low pressure (LP) steam turbine stages is of special importance for steam turbine man- ufactures, vendors, power plant owners and the scientific community due to their lower efficiency than the high pressure steam turbine stages. Because of condensation, the last stages of LP turbine experience irreversible thermodynamic losses, aerodynamic losses and erosion in turbine blades. Additionally, an LP steam turbine requires maintenance due to moisture generation, and therefore, it is also affecting on the turbine reliability. Therefore, the design of energy efficient LP steam turbines requires a comprehensive analysis of condensation phenomena and corresponding losses occurring in the steam tur- bine either by experiments or with numerical simulations. The aim of the present work is to apply computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to enhance the existing knowledge and understanding of condensing steam flows and loss mechanisms that occur due to the irre- versible heat and mass transfer during the condensation process in an LP steam turbine. Throughout this work, two commercial CFD codes were used to model non-equilibrium condensing steam flows. The Eulerian-Eulerian approach was utilised in which the mix- ture of vapour and liquid phases was solved by Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equa- tions. The nucleation process was modelled with the classical nucleation theory, and two different droplet growth models were used to predict the droplet growth rate. The flow turbulence was solved by employing the standard k-ε and the shear stress transport k-ω turbulence models. Further, both models were modified and implemented in the CFD codes. The thermodynamic properties of vapour and liquid phases were evaluated with real gas models. In this thesis, various topics, namely the influence of real gas properties, turbulence mod- elling, unsteadiness and the blade trailing edge shape on wet-steam flows, are studied with different convergent-divergent nozzles, turbine stator cascade and 3D turbine stator-rotor stage. The simulated results of this study were evaluated and discussed together with the available experimental data in the literature. The grid independence study revealed that an adequate grid size is required to capture correct trends of condensation phenomena in LP turbine flows. The study shows that accurate real gas properties are important for the precise modelling of non-equilibrium condensing steam flows. The turbulence modelling revealed that the flow expansion and subsequently the rate of formation of liquid droplet nuclei and its growth process were affected by the turbulence modelling. The losses were rather sensitive to turbulence modelling as well. Based on the presented results, it could be observed that the correct computational prediction of wet-steam flows in the LP turbine requires the turbulence to be modelled accurately. The trailing edge shape of the LP turbine blades influenced the liquid droplet formulation, distribution and sizes, and loss generation. The study shows that the semicircular trailing edge shape predicted the smallest droplet sizes. The square trailing edge shape estimated greater losses. The analysis of steady and unsteady calculations of wet-steam flow exhibited that in unsteady simulations, the interaction of wakes in the rotor blade row affected the flow field. The flow unsteadiness influenced the nucleation and droplet growth processes due to the fluctuation in the Wilson point.

Informing Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) with numerical modelling: A case-study on shellfish aquaculture in Malpeque Bay (Eastern Canada)

A moratorium on further bivalve leasing was established in 1999–2000 in Prince Edward Island (Canada). Recently, a marine spatial planning process was initiated explore potential mussel culture expansion in Malpeque Bay. This study focuses on the effects of a projected expansion scenario on productivity of existing leases and available suspended food resources. The aim is to provide a robust scientific assessment using available datasets and three modelling approaches ranging in complexity: (1) a connectivity analysis among culture areas; (2) a scenario analysis of organic seston dynamics based on a simplified biogeochemical model; and (3) a scenario analysis of phytoplankton dynamics based on an ecosystem model. These complementary approaches suggest (1) new leases can affect existing culture both through direct connectivity and through bay-scale effects driven by the overall increase in mussel biomass, and (2) a net reduction of phytoplankton within the bounds of its natural variation in the area.

Modelling the development of an online learning resource by health care professionals

The aim of this study was to model the process of development for an Online Learning Resource (OLR) by Health Care Professionals (HCPs) to meet lymphoedema-related educational needs, within an asset-based management context. Previous research has shown that HCPs have unmet educational needs in relation to lymphoedema but details on their specific nature or context were lacking. Against this background, the study was conducted in two distinct but complementary phases. In Phase 1, a national survey was conducted of HCPs predominantly in community, oncology and palliative care services, followed by focus group discussions with a sample of respondents. In Phase 2, lymphoedema specialists (LSs) used an action research approach to design and implement an OLR to meet the needs identified in Phase 1. Study findings were analysed using descriptive statistics (Phase 1), and framework, thematic and dialectic analysis to explore their potential to inform future service development and education theory. Unmet educational need was found to be specific to health care setting and professional group. These resulted in HCPs feeling poorly-equipped to diagnose and manage lymphoedema. Of concern, when identified, lymphoedema was sometimes buried for fear of overwhelming stretched services. An OLR was identified as a means of addressing the unmet educational needs. This was successfully developed and implemented with minimal additional resources. The process model created has the potential to inform contemporary leadership theory in asset-based management contexts. This doctoral research makes a timely contribution to leadership theory since the resource constraints underpinning much of the contribution has salience to current public services. The process model created has the potential to inform contemporary leadership theory in asset-based management contexts. Further study of a leadership style which incorporates cognisance of Cognitive Load Theory and Self-Determination Theory is suggested. In addition, the detailed reporting of process and how this facilitated learning for participants contributes to workplace education theory

Trajectory prediction uncertainty modelling for Air Traffic Management

The anticipated growth of air traffic worldwide requires enhanced Air Traffic Management (ATM) technologies and procedures to increase the system capacity, efficiency, and resilience, while reducing environmental impact and maintaining operational safety. To deal with these challenges, new automation and information exchange capabilities are being developed through different modernisation initiatives toward a new global operational concept called Trajectory Based Operations (TBO), in which aircraft trajectory information becomes the cornerstone of advanced ATM applications. This transformation will lead to higher levels of system complexity requiring enhanced Decision Support Tools (DST) to aid humans in the decision making processes. These will rely on accurate predicted aircraft trajectories, provided by advanced Trajectory Predictors (TP). The trajectory prediction process is subject to stochastic effects that introduce uncertainty into the predictions. Regardless of the assumptions that define the aircraft motion model underpinning the TP, deviations between predicted and actual trajectories are unavoidable. This thesis proposes an innovative method to characterise the uncertainty associated with a trajectory prediction based on the mathematical theory of Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE). Assuming univariate PCEs of the trajectory prediction inputs, the method describes how to generate multivariate PCEs of the prediction outputs that quantify their associated uncertainty. Arbitrary PCE (aPCE) was chosen because it allows a higher degree of flexibility to model input uncertainty. The obtained polynomial description can be used in subsequent prediction sensitivity analyses thanks to the relationship between polynomial coefficients and Sobol indices. The Sobol indices enable ranking the input parameters according to their influence on trajectory prediction uncertainty. The applicability of the aPCE-based uncertainty quantification detailed herein is analysed through a study case. This study case represents a typical aircraft trajectory prediction problem in ATM, in which uncertain parameters regarding aircraft performance, aircraft intent description, weather forecast, and initial conditions are considered simultaneously. Numerical results are compared to those obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating the advantages of the proposed method. The thesis includes two examples of DSTs (Demand and Capacity Balancing tool, and Arrival Manager) to illustrate the potential benefits of exploiting the proposed uncertainty quantification method.

Selecting candidate predictor variables for the modelling of post-discharge mortality from sepsis: a protocol development project.

Background: Post-discharge mortality is a frequent but poorly recognized contributor to child mortality in resource limited countries. The identification of children at high risk for post-discharge mortality is a critically important first step in addressing this problem. Objectives: The objective of this project was to determine the variables most likely to be associated with post-discharge mortality which are to be included in a prediction modelling study. Methods: A two-round modified Delphi process was completed for the review of a priori selected variables and selection of new variables. Variables were evaluated on relevance according to (1) prediction (2) availability (3) cost and (4) time required for measurement. Participants included experts in a variety of relevant fields. Results: During the first round of the modified Delphi process, 23 experts evaluated 17 variables. Forty further variables were suggested and were reviewed during the second round by 12 experts. During the second round 16 additional variables were evaluated. Thirty unique variables were compiled for use in the prediction modelling study. Conclusion: A systematic approach was utilized to generate an optimal list of candidate predictor variables for the incorporation into a study on prediction of pediatric post-discharge mortality in a resource poor setting.

Wild Roman chamomile extracts and phenolic compounds: enzymatic assays and molecular modelling studies with VEGFR-2 tyrosine kinase

Angiogenesis is a process by which new blood vessels are formed from the pre-existing vasculature, and it is a key process that leads to tumour development. Some studies have recognized phenolic compounds as chemopreventive agents; flavonoids, in particular, seem to suppress the growth of tumor cells modifying the cell cycle. Herein, the antiangiogenic activity of Roman chamomile (Chamaemelum nobile L.) extracts (methanolic extract and infusion) and the main phenolic compounds present (apigenin, apigenin-7-O-glucoside, caffeic acid, chlorogenic acid, luteolin, and luteolin-7-O-glucoside) was evaluated through enzymatic assays using the tyrosine kinase intracellular domain of the Vascular Endothelium Growth Factor Receptor-2 (VEGFR-2), which is a transmembrane receptor expressed fundamentally in endothelial cells involved in angiogenesis, and molecular modelling studies. The methanolic extract showed a lower IC50 value (concentration that provided 50% of VEGFR-2 inhibition) than the infusion, 269 and 301 μg mL(-1), respectively. Regarding phenolic compounds, luteolin and apigenin showed the highest capacity to inhibit the phosphorylation of VEGFR-2, leading us to believe that these compounds are involved in the activity revealed by the methanolic extract.

Modelling and analysing cargo screening processes: a project outline

The efficiency of current cargo screening processes at sea and air ports is unknown as no benchmarks exists against which they could be measured. Some manufacturer benchmarks exist for individual sensors but we have not found any benchmarks that take a holistic view of the screening procedures assessing a combination of sensors and also taking operator variability into account. Just adding up resources and manpower used is not an effective way for assessing systems where human decision-making and operator compliance to rules play a vital role. For such systems more advanced assessment methods need to be used, taking into account that the cargo screening process is of a dynamic and stochastic nature. Our project aim is to develop a decision support tool (cargo-screening system simulator) that will map the right technology and manpower to the right commodity-threat combination in order to maximize detection rates. In this paper we present a project outline and highlight the research challenges we have identified so far. In addition we introduce our first case study, where we investigate the cargo screening process at the ferry port in Calais.

System dynamics modelling of the processes involving the maintenance of the naive T cell repertoire

The study of immune system aging, i.e. immunosenescence, is a relatively new research topic. It deals with understanding the processes of immuno-degradation that indicate signs of functionality loss possibly leading to death. Even though it is not possible to prevent immunosenescence, there is great benefit in comprehending its causes, which may help to reverse some of the damage done and thus improve life expectancy. One of the main factors influencing the process of immunosenescence is the number and phenotypical variety of naive T cells in an individual. This work presents a review of immunosenescence, proposes system dynamics modelling of the processes involving the maintenance of the naive T cell repertoire and presents some preliminary results.

Does mortality vary between Asian subgroups in New Zealand: an application of hierarchical Bayesian modelling

The aim of this paper was to see whether all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates vary between Asian ethnic subgroups, and whether overseas born Asian subgroup mortality rate ratios varied by nativity and duration of residence. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to allow for sparse data in the analysis of linked census-mortality data for 25-75 year old New Zealanders. We found directly standardised posterior all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were highest for the Indian ethnic group, significantly so when compared with those of Chinese ethnicity. In contrast, cancer mortality rates were lowest for ethnic Indians. Asian overseas born subgroups have about 70% of the mortality rate of their New Zealand born Asian counterparts, a result that showed little variation by Asian subgroup or cause of death. Within the overseas born population, all-cause mortality rates for migrants living 0-9 years in New Zealand were about 60% of the mortality rate of those living more than 25 years in New Zealand regardless of ethnicity. The corresponding figure for cardiovascular mortality rates was 50%. However, while Chinese cancer mortality rates increased with duration of residence, Indian and Other Asian cancer mortality rates did not. Future research on the mechanisms of worsening of health with increased time spent in the host country is required to improve the understanding of the process, and would assist the policy-makers and health planners.

Pyrolysis of municipal green waste: a modelling, simulation and experimental analysis

Pyrolysis is the thermo-chemical conversion of carbonaceous feedstock in the absence of oxygen to produce bio-fuel (bio-oil, bio-char and syn-gas). Bio-fuel production from municipal green waste (MGW) through the pyrolysis process has attracted considerable attention recently in the renewable energy sector because it can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to energy security. This study analyses properties of MGW feedstock available in Rockhampton city of Central Queensland, Australia, and presents an experimental investigation of producing bio-fuel from that MGW through the pyrolysis process using a short sealed rotary furnace. It was found from the experiment that about 19.97% bio-oil, 40.83% bio-char and 29.77% syn-gas can be produced from the MGW. Then, a four-stage steady state simulation model is developed for pyrolysis process performance simulation using Aspen Plus software. In the first stage, the moisture content of the MGW feed is reduced. In the second stage, the MGW is decomposed according to its elemental constituents. In the third stage, condensate material is separated and, finally, the pyrolysis reactions are modelled using the Gibbs free energy minimisation approach. The MGW's ultimate and proximate analysis data were used in the Aspen Plus simulation as input parameters. The model is validated with experimentally measured data. A good agreement between simulation and experimental results was found. More specifically, the variation of modelling and experimental elemental compositions of the MGW was found to be 7.3% for carbon, 15.82% for hydrogen, 7.04% for nitrogen and 5.56% for sulphur. The validated model is used to optimise the biofuel production from the MGW as a function of operating variables such as temperature, moisture content, particle size and process heat air-fuel ratio. The modelling and optimisation results are presented, analysed and discussed.

Strain gradient plasticity modelling of high-pressure torsion

Gradient plasticity modelling combining a micro-structure-related constitutive description of the local material behaviour with a particular gradient plasticity frame is presented. The constitutive formulation is based on a phase mixture model in which the dislocation cell walls and the cell interiors are considered as separate 'phases', the respective dislocation densities entering as internal variables. Two distinct physical mechanisms, which give rise to gradient plasticity, are considered. The first one is associated with the occurrence of geometrically necessary dislocations leading to first-order strain gradients; the second one is associated with the reaction stresses due to plastic strain incompatibilities between neighbouring grains, which lead to second-order strain gradients. These two separate variants of gradient plasticity were applied to the case of high-pressure torsion: a process known to result in a fairly uniform, ultrafine grained structure of metals. It is shown that the two complementary variants of gradient plasticity can both account for the experimental results, thus resolving a controversial issue of the occurrence of a uniform micro-structure as a result of an inherently non-uniform process. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GIS-based dynamic modelling and analysis of flash floods considering land-use planning

Flood inundation is a common natural disaster and a growing development challenge for many cities and thousands of small towns around the world. Soil features have frequently altered with the rapid development of urbanised regions, which has led to more frequent and longer duration of flooding in urban flood-prone regions. Thus, this paper presents a geographic information system (GIS)-based methodology for measuring and visualising the effects on urban flash floods generated by land-use changes over time. The measurement is formulated with a time series in order to perform a dynamic analysis. A catchment mesh is introduced into a hydrological model for reflecting the spatial layouts of infrastructure and structures over different construction periods. The Geelong Waurn Ponds campus of Deakin University is then selected as a case study. Based on GIS simulation and mapping technologies, this research illustrates the evolutionary process of flash floods. The paper then describes flood inundation for different built environments and presents a comparison by quantifying the flooding extents for infrastructure and structures. The results reveal that the GIS-based estimation model can examine urban flash floods in different development phases and identify the change of flooding extents in terms of land-use planning. This study will bring benefits to urban planners in raising awareness of flood impact and the approach proposed here could be used for flood mitigation through future urban planning.

Experimentally and coupled CFD/CSD assisted structural and aeroelastic modelling of the Javelin UAV outboard wing section

This study presents the procedure followed to make a prediction of the critical flutter speed for a composite UAV wing. At the beginning of the study, there was no information available on the materials used for the construction of the wing, and the wing internal structure was unknown. Ground vibration tests were performed in order to detect the structure’s natural frequencies and mode shapes. From tests, it was found that the wing possesses a high stiffness, presenting well separated first bending and torsional natural frequencies. Two finite element models were developed and matched to experimental results. It has been necessary to introduce some assumptions, due to the uncertainties regarding the structure. The matching process was based on natural frequencies’ sensitivity with respect to a change in the mechanical properties of the materials. Once experimental results were met, average material properties were also found. Aerodynamic coefficients for the wing were obtained by means of a CFD software. The same analysis was also conducted when the wing is deformed in its first four mode shapes. A first approximation for flutter critical speed was made with the classical V - g technique. Finally, wing’s aeroelastic behavior was simulated using a coupled CFD/CSD method, obtaining a more accurate flutter prediction. The CSD solver is based on the time integration of modal dynamic equations, requiring the extraction of mode shapes from the previously performed finite-element analysis. Results show that flutter onset is not a risk for the UAV, occurring at velocities well beyond its operative range.

Monitoring and modelling the morphodynamic evolution of a breached barrier beach system

Predicting the evolution of a coastal cell requires the identification of the key drivers of morphology. Soft coastlines are naturally dynamic but severe storm events and even human intervention can accelerate any changes that are occurring. However, when erosive events such as barrier breaching occur with no obvious contributory factors, a deeper understanding of the underlying coastal processes is required. Ideally conclusions on morphological drivers should be drawn from field data collection and remote sensing over a long period of time. Unfortunately, when the Rossbeigh barrier beach in Dingle Bay, County Kerry, began to erode rapidly in the early 2000’s, eventually leading to it breaching in 2008, no such baseline data existed. This thesis presents a study of the morphodynamic evolution of the Inner Dingle Bay coastal system. The study combines existing coastal zone analysis approaches with experimental field data collection techniques and a novel approach to long term morphodynamic modelling to predict the evolution of the barrier beach inlet system. A conceptual model describing the long term evolution of Inner Dingle Bay in 5 stages post breaching was developed. The dominant coastal processes driving the evolution of the coastal system were identified and quantified. A new methodology of long term process based numerical modelling approach to coastal evolution was developed. This method was used to predict over 20 years of coastal evolution in Inner Dingle Bay. On a broader context this thesis utilised several experimental coastal zone data collection and analysis methods such as ocean radar and grain size trend analysis. These were applied during the study and their suitability to a dynamic coastal system was assessed.

Modelling and predictive control techniques for building heating systems

Model predictive control (MPC) has often been referred to in literature as a potential method for more efficient control of building heating systems. Though a significant performance improvement can be achieved with an MPC strategy, the complexity introduced to the commissioning of the system is often prohibitive. Models are required which can capture the thermodynamic properties of the building with sufficient accuracy for meaningful predictions to be made. Furthermore, a large number of tuning weights may need to be determined to achieve a desired performance. For MPC to become a practicable alternative, these issues must be addressed. Acknowledging the impact of the external environment as well as the interaction of occupants on the thermal behaviour of the building, in this work, techniques have been developed for deriving building models from data in which large, unmeasured disturbances are present. A spatio-temporal filtering process was introduced to determine estimates of the disturbances from measured data, which were then incorporated with metaheuristic search techniques to derive high-order simulation models, capable of replicating the thermal dynamics of a building. While a high-order simulation model allowed for control strategies to be analysed and compared, low-order models were required for use within the MPC strategy itself. The disturbance estimation techniques were adapted for use with system-identification methods to derive such models. MPC formulations were then derived to enable a more straightforward commissioning process and implemented in a validated simulation platform. A prioritised-objective strategy was developed which allowed for the tuning parameters typically associated with an MPC cost function to be omitted from the formulation by separation of the conflicting requirements of comfort satisfaction and energy reduction within a lexicographic framework. The improved ability of the formulation to be set-up and reconfigured in faulted conditions was shown.