Health and Social Care Implications of Population Ageing In Ireland 1991-2011

This report has two main objectives. The first is to set out national and health board area population projections for Ireland in the period 1991-2011, with special reference to the elderly population. The second is to consider the implications of the predicted trends in the elderly population for health and social care services over the same period, taking account of official policy objectives and service norms for the health services. Download the Report here

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Tackling Chronic Disease - A Policy Framework for the Management of Chronic Diseases

Tackling Chronic Disease – A Policy Framework for the Management of Chronic Diseases Chronic diseases are recognised as a major health challenge. In the healthcare system, they represent the major component of service activity and expenditure, as well as the major contributor to mortality and ill-health in this country. Given the population projections which predict a doubling of the elderly population over the next 30 years, this will give rise to a significant increase in chronic diseases with the consequent burden on society, the healthcare system and individuals. Click here to download PDF 1.8mb

Supplementary Report of the HIA to the Minister for Health, in accordance with Section 7E(1)(b) of the Health Insurance Acts, 1994-2009 (Redacted Version)

The purpose of this Supplementary Report is to advise on how the budgetary measures impact on the conclusions in relation to tax credits and stamp duty included in the Authority’s November 2011 Report. in doing so, we will assess the direct impacts and we will discuss some scenarios. However, the Authority’s advice in this area relies on projections of the health insurance market and, in light of the above, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding any projections of how claims inflation or the market size may develop, even in the short and medium terms. Supplementary Report of the HIA to the Minister for Health, in accordance with Section 7E(1)(b) of the Health Insurance Acts, 1994-2009 (Redacted Version) Click here to download PDF 3.2mb

Active transmission of human chagas disease in Colima Mexico

Despite efforts to eradicate American trypanosomiasis (AT) and Chagas disease from the Americas, there are still areas of active transmission that can eventually become a source of reinfection in previously controlled regions. Mexico could be one of those areas, where there are no formal preventive control programs despite the presence of communities infested by Triatominae bugs infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. This study explored the prevalence of T. cruzi infection in 405 habitants of 17 communities in the state of Colima, on the Pacific Mexican coast, through a seroepidemiological probabilistic survey. The results revealed a point seroprevalence of 2.4% positive for anti-T. cruzi. In addition, 2 clinical cases of chronic and 2 of acute Chagas disease were detected in the explored communities. These findings confirm the risk of active transmission of AT in Western Mexico, especially in rural and suburban communities infested with intra-domestic triatominae, where control programs should be implemented.

Climate change impact on biodiversity in Switzerland: a review. Journal for Nature Conservation

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and consider some perspectives for the future at the national level. The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution toward mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends. These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.

Indexes and boundaries for "quantitative significance" in statistical decisions.

Boundaries for delta, representing a "quantitatively significant" or "substantively impressive" distinction, have not been established, analogous to the boundary of alpha, usually set at 0.05, for the stochastic or probabilistic component of "statistical significance". To determine what boundaries are being used for the "quantitative" decisions, we reviewed pertinent articles in three general medical journals. For each contrast of two means, contrast of two rates, or correlation coefficient, we noted the investigators' decisions about stochastic significance, stated in P values or confidence intervals, and about quantitative significance, indicated by interpretive comments. The boundaries between impressive and unimpressive distinctions were best formed by a ratio of greater than or equal to 1.2 for the smaller to the larger mean in 546 comparisons, by a standardized increment of greater than or equal to 0.28 and odds ratio of greater than or equal to 2.2 in 392 comparisons of two rates; and by an r value of greater than or equal to 0.32 in 154 correlation coefficients. Additional boundaries were also identified for "substantially" and "highly" significant quantitative distinctions. Although the proposed boundaries should be kept flexible, indexes and boundaries for decisions about "quantitative significance" are particularly useful when a value of delta must be chosen for calculating sample size before the research is done, and when the "statistical significance" of completed research is appraised for its quantitative as well as stochastic components.

Director of Public Health annual report 2011 and core tables 2010

Too many children and young people are living in circumstances that make it difficult for them to thrive. That is the key message from the third Annual Report of the Director of Public Health (DPH) for Northern Ireland, which was published on 14th June 2012. This significant report highlights the many public health challenges that affect people in Northern Ireland.As Director of Public Health, Dr Carolyn Harper's report describes the main public health challenges across Northern Ireland, and details work being undertaken by the Public Health Agency (PHA) and its partners over the past year to improve the health and wellbeing of people here.A Core Tables report for 2010, available below, produced by the PHA in support of the Director of Public Health's Annual Report for 2011-2012, including information such as estimated home population figures and projections, births information, fertility rates, death rates, information on mortality, life expectancy, immunisation rates and screening uptake rates.

Director of Public Health annual report 2012 and core tables 2011

Improving the health and wellbeing of the elderly is the theme of the fourth Director of Public Health annual report, launched on 12 June 2013. Northern Ireland's elderly population is growing and older people are living longer than ever before, which emphasises the importance of providing health and social care that allows them to live a productive life.This report highlights the many areas of public health work aimed at giving elderly people in Northern Ireland the best opportunity to live active and healthy lives in a safe and secure environment. An in-depth overview also provides statistics on many aspects of life as an elderly person here - life expectancy, mortality, mental wellbeing, lifestyle, social determinants of health etc. Further, more detailed, data is included in an accompanying report available�as a separate document.��The core tables for 2011, also available to download below, include information such as estimated home population figures and projections, birth rates, fertility rates, death rates, information on mortality, life expectancy, immunisation rates and screening uptake rates.The presentation slides from key speakers from the launch event on 12 June 2013 and all parallel sessions are also appended below.�Please note:�The PHA cannot be held responsible for any breach of copyright that may exist within individual presentations.Anyone wishing to get a copy of the presentation by Ron McDowell�in the 'Identifying those at risk' category should contact him directly at mcdowell-R3@email.ulster.ac.uk

L'hémisphérotomie péri-insulaire: technique chirurgicale, monitoring EEG intraopératoire et résultats sur le contrôle de l'épilepsie [Periinsular hemispherotomy: surgical technique, intraoperative EEG monitoring and results on seizure outcome]

Peri-insular hemispherotomy is a surgical technique used in the treatment of drug-resistant epilepsy of hemispheric origin. It is based on the exposure of insula and semi-circular sulci, providing access to the lateral ventricle through a supra- and infra-insular window. From inside the ventricle, a parasagittal callosotomy is performed. The basal and medial portion of the frontal lobe is isolated. Projections to the anterior commissure are interrupted at the time of amygdala resection. The hippocampal tail and fimbria-fornix are disrupted posteriorly. We report our experience of 18 cases treated with this approach. More than half of them presented with congenital epilepsy. Neuronavigation was useful in precisely determining the center and extent of the craniotomy, as well as the direction of tractotomies and callosotomy, allowing minimal exposure and blood loss. Intra-operative monitoring by scalp EEG on the contralateral hemisphere was used to follow the progression of the number of interictal spikes during the disconnection procedure. Approximately 90% of patients were in Engel's Class I. We observed one case who presented with transient postoperative neurological deterioration probably due to CSF overdrainage and documented one case of incomplete disconnection in a patient presenting with hemimegalencephaly who needed a second operation. We observed a good correlation between a significant decrease in the number of spikes at the end of the procedure and seizure outcome. Peri-insular hemispherotomy provides a functional disconnection of the hemisphere with minimal resection of cerebral tissue. It is an efficient technique with a low complication rate. Intra-operative EEG monitoring might be used as a predictive factor of completeness of the disconnection and consequently, seizure outcome.

Asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection in Tierralta, Colombia

With the aim of determining the prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection by thick smear and PCR and its association with demographic and epidemiological characteristics in the village of Nuevo Tay, Tierralta, Córdoba, Colombia, a cross-sectional population study was carried out, using random probabilistic sampling. Venous blood samples were taken from 212 people on day 0 for thick smear and PCR. Clinical follow-up and thick smears were carried out on days 14 and 28. The prevalence of Plasmodium spp. infection was 17.9% (38/212; 95% CI: 12.5-23.3%) and the prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodiumspp. infection was 14.6% (31/212; 95% CI: 9.6-19.6%). Plasmodium vivax was found more frequently (20/31; 64.5%) than Plasmodium falciparum (9/31; 29%) and mixed infections (2/31; 6.5%). A significantly higher prevalence of asymptomatic infection was found in men (19.30%) than in women (9.18%) (prevalence ratio: 2.10; 95% CI: 1.01-4.34%; p = 0.02). People who developed symptoms had a significantly higher parasitemia on day 0 than those who remained asymptomatic, of 1,881.5 ± 3,759 versus 79 ± 106.9 (p = 0.008). PCR detected 50% more infections than the thick smears. The presence of asymptomatic Plasmodium spp. infection highlights the importance of carrying out active searches amongst asymptomatic populations residing in endemic areas.

Angiotensin II is an endogenous neurotransmitter for rat and human mesenteric resistance blood vessels

Angiotensin II (Ang II) is one of the most potent vasoconstrictors. We document here the innervation of rat and human mesenteric resistance arteries (MRA) by angiotensinergic neurons of the rat and human sympathetic coeliac ganglia. Angiotensinogen (Ang-N)-mRNA and angiotensin converting enzyme-mRNA but no renin-mRNA were detected by using quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction in total RNA extracts of rat coeliac ganglia. In the same extracts, cathepsin D-mRNA was detected: This protease also cleaves Ang I from Ang-N and could therefore account for the generation of neuronal Ang peptides in the absence of renin. In situ hybridization confirmed the presence of Ang-N-mRNA in the cytoplasm of rat coeliac ganglia. By using solid-phase extraction, high performance liquid chromatography and subsequent radioimmunoassay, Ang II and its metabolites were detected in rat and also in human coeliac ganglia. Immunoreactivity for Ang II was demonstrated in rat and human coeliac ganglia neurons and their projections innervating MRA. In addition, segmental angiotensinergic innervation of MRA was also observed. By means of confocal laser scanning microscopy we were able to demonstrate the presence of angiotensinergic synapses en passant along side of vascular smooth muscle cells. Our findings could indicate that Ang II is synthesized inside the neurons of sympathetic coeliac ganglia and may act as an endogenous neurotransmitter locally in MRA.

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis andovertreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were:age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population usedmammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis.Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively.Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools

Mixing compositions and other scales

Theory of compositional data analysis is often focused on the composition only. However in practical applications we often treat a composition together with covariableswith some other scale. This contribution systematically gathers and develop statistical tools for this situation. For instance, for the graphical display of the dependenceof a composition with a categorical variable, a colored set of ternary diagrams mightbe a good idea for a first look at the data, but it will fast hide important aspects ifthe composition has many parts, or it takes extreme values. On the other hand colored scatterplots of ilr components could not be very instructive for the analyst, if theconventional, black-box ilr is used.Thinking on terms of the Euclidean structure of the simplex, we suggest to set upappropriate projections, which on one side show the compositional geometry and on theother side are still comprehensible by a non-expert analyst, readable for all locations andscales of the data. This is e.g. done by defining special balance displays with carefully-selected axes. Following this idea, we need to systematically ask how to display, explore,describe, and test the relation to complementary or explanatory data of categorical, real,ratio or again compositional scales.This contribution shows that it is sufficient to use some basic concepts and very fewadvanced tools from multivariate statistics (principal covariances, multivariate linearmodels, trellis or parallel plots, etc.) to build appropriate procedures for all these combinations of scales. This has some fundamental implications in their software implementation, and how might they be taught to analysts not already experts in multivariateanalysis

Role of Notch signalling in intestinal epithelium

Résumé: Chez les mammifères, les intestins sont les organes ayant le plus haut taux de renouvellement cellulaire dans l'organisme. L'épithélium intestinal se renouvelle complètement en moins d'une semaine. Il se compose de projections (villosités) et d'invaginations (cryptes) qui ont toutes deux des fonctions bien distinctes. Les cellules de l'intestin sont constamment produites à partir de cellules souches, situées dans la crypte, qui se différencient en cellules proliférantes transitoires, puis en cellules caliciformes, de Paneth, entéroendocrine ou en entérocytes. Ces cellules migrent dans leurs lieux spécifiques pour accomplir leur fonction physiologique pour finalement mourir. A cours de mon travail de thèse, j'ai étudié le rôle de la voie de signalisation de Notch dans le renouvellement cellulaire et dans le processus de l'homéostase des cellules de l'intestin marin en utilisant le système Cre-loxP pour induire la délétion des gènes Notch1, Notch2, Jaggedl et RBP-Jk. Bien que l'inactivation de Notch1 avec ou sans Jagged1, ou celle de Notch2, n'aboutissent à aucun phénotype, une déficience pour RBP-Jk, ou pour Notch1 et Notch2 simultanément, conduit au développement d'un impressionnant phénotype. Au niveau de la crypte, une rapide et importante modification des cellules apparaît: les cellules proliférantes sont devenues des cellules caliciformes qui ont perdu la capacité de se renouveler. Ces résultats impliquent la voie Notch en tant que nouvelle clé de voûte dans le maintien des cellules qui s'auto-renouvellent dans l'épithélium intestinal. Un rôle similaire a été proposé pour la voie Wnt, laquelle n'est cependant, pas affectée dans nos souris. C'est pourquoi ces deux voies sont essentielles dans le maintien de la prolifération dans les cryptes intestinales. Ce travail a aussi proposé un mécanisme par lequel la voie Notch contrôlerait l'intégrité du cycle cellulaire dans les cellules de la crypte intestinale, ceci en inhibant la transcription d'un inhibiteur du cycle cellulaire, la protéine p27KIP1. De plus, l'inactivation de RBP-Jk dans les adénomes développés par les souris APCmin induisent la différenciation de cellules tumorales en cellules caliciformes. Comme autre effet, la localisation histologique des cellules de Paneth est également affectée par la délétion de RBP-Jk ou de Notch1/Notch2, suggérant un rôle pour la voie Notch dans le compartiment des cellules de Paneth. Finalement, ce travail démontre que les cellules progénitrices de l'intestin ont besoin d'une convergence fonctionnelle des voie Wnt et Notch. Ces résultats préliminaires peuvent être considérés comme un concept pour l'utilisation d'inhibiteurs de secrétase-γ (inhibiteurs de Notch) à des fins thérapeutiques pour les cancers colorectaux. Summary The mammalian intestine has one of the highest cellular turnover rates in the body. The complete intestinal epithelium is renewed in less than a week. It is divided into spatially distinct compartments in the form of finger-like projections (villi) and flask-shaped invaginations (crypts) that are dedicated to specific functions. Intestinal cells are constantly produced from a stem cell reservoir that gives rise to proliferating transient amplifying cells, which subsequently differentiate and home to their specific compartments before dying after having fulfilled their physiological function. In this thesis project, the physiological role of the Notch signalling cascade in the marine intestine was studied. Inducible tissue specific inactivation of Notch1, Notch2, Jagged1 and RBP-Jk genes was applied to assess their role in the maintenance of intestinal homeostasis and cell fate determination. The analysis unequivocally revealed that Notch1, Notch1 and Jagged1 combined as well as Notch2 are dispensable for intestinal homeostasis and lineage differentiation. However, deficiency of RBP-Jk as well as the simultaneous inactivation of both Notch1 and Notch2 receptors unveiled a striking phenotype. In these mice, a rapid and massive conversion of proliferative crypt cells into post-mitotic goblet cells was observed. These results identify the Notch pathway as a key player for the maintenance of the proliferative crypt compartment. A similar role was implicated for the Wnt cascade, which, however, was not affected in the different tissue specific Notch signalling deficient mice. Thus, the Wnt and Notch signalling pathways are essential for the self-renewal capacity of the intestinal epithelium. Furthermore, our results suggest a molecular mechanism for Notch signalling mediated control of cell cycle regulation within the crypt. The Notch cascade inhibits expression of the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p27KIP1 and thereby maintains proliferation of the intestinal progenitor cells. In addition, the inactivation of RBP-Jk in adenomas developed by APCmin mice resulted in the differentiation of tumour cells into goblet cells. Finally, Notch deficiency affected differentiated Paneth cells, suggesting that Notch may play a role in the Paneth cell compartment. In summary, this work clearly demonstrates that undifferentiated, proliferative cells in intestinal crypts require the concerted activation of the RBP-Jk-mediated Notch signalling and the Wnt cascade. In addition, our preliminary results can be considered as a "proof-of-principle" for the use of γ-secretase inhibitors for therapeutic modalities for colorectal cancer.