Modelos de dispersão para extremos de precipitação. Estudo de caso: o nordeste do Brasil

In this thesis used four different methods in order to diagnose the precipitation extremes on Northeastern Brazil (NEB): Generalized Linear Model s via logistic regression and Poisson, extreme value theory analysis via generalized extre me value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GPD) distributions and Vectorial Generalized Linea r Models via GEV (MVLG GEV). The logistic regression and Poisson models were used to identify the interactions between the precipitation extremes and other variables based on the odds ratios and relative risks. It was found that the outgoing longwave radiation was the indicator variable for the occurrence of extreme precipitation on eastern, northern and semi arid NEB, and the relative humidity was verified on southern NEB. The GEV and GPD distribut ions (based on the 95th percentile) showed that the location and scale parameters were presented the maximum on the eastern and northern coast NEB, the GEV verified a maximum core on western of Pernambuco influenced by weather systems and topography. The GEV and GPD shape parameter, for most regions the data fitted by Weibull negative an d Beta distributions (ξ < 0) , respectively. The levels and return periods of GEV (GPD) on north ern Maranhão (centerrn of Bahia) may occur at least an extreme precipitation event excee ding over of 160.9 mm /day (192.3 mm / day) on next 30 years. The MVLG GEV model found tha t the zonal and meridional wind components, evaporation and Atlantic and Pacific se a surface temperature boost the precipitation extremes. The GEV parameters show the following results: a) location ( ), the highest value was 88.26 ± 6.42 mm on northern Maran hão; b) scale ( σ ), most regions showed positive values, except on southern of Maranhão; an d c) shape ( ξ ), most of the selected regions were adjusted by the Weibull negative distr ibution ( ξ < 0 ). The southern Maranhão and southern Bahia have greater accuracy. The level period, it was estimated that the centern of Bahia may occur at least an extreme precipitatio n event equal to or exceeding over 571.2 mm/day on next 30 years.

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Zoneamento agroclimático da palma forrageira (Opuntia sp.) para o estado da Paraíba

The cactus pear has become over the years an important forage alternative for brazilian semiarid region, especially during long periods of drought. Despite its importance for agriculture, its cultivation has dispensed basic crop practices and fundamentals technical-scientific basis about its climatic requirements. Thus, the main objective of this study was to elaborate the agroclimatic zoning of cactus pear (Opuntia sp.) for the state of Paraíba. The agroclimatic zoning of cactus pear was based on climatic indicators outlined in the literature and climatological data of precipitation and temperature (mean, maximum, and minimum) from 97 locations in the state of Paraíba. According to the results, the region of ‘Borborema’ is the most favorable for the cultivation of cactus pear. The regions of ‘Agreste’, ‘Sertão’, and coastal part of Litoral may be used but with restrictions. However, the cultivation of cactus pear is recommended throughout the state of Paraíba, except the coastal part of the Litoral and the region around Areia. In both cases, the inability is due to excessive precipitation.

Arthropoda de solo em um ecossistema semi-árido da região neotropical: composição, variabilidade temporal e estratificação

Caatinga is an important laboratory for studies about arthropods adaptations and aclimatations because its precipitation is highly variable in time. We studied the effects of time variability over the composition of Arthropods in a caatinga area. The study was carried out at a preservation area on Almas Farm, São José dos Cordeiros, Paraíba. Samples were collected in two 100 m long parallel transects, separated for a 30 m distance, in a dense tree dominated caatinga area, between August 2007 and July 2008. Samples were collected in each transect every 10 m. Ten soil samples were taken from each transect, both at 0-5 cm (A) and 5-10 cm (B) depth, resulting in 40 samples each month. The Berlese funnel method was used for fauna extraction. We registered 26 orders and the arthropods density in the soil ranged from 3237 to 22774 individuals.m-2 from January 2007 to March 2008, respectively. There was no difference between layers A and B regarding orders abundance and richness. The groups recorded include groups with few records or that had no records in the Caatinga region yet as Pauropoda, Psocoptera, Thysanoptera, Protura and Araneae. Acari was the most abundant group, with 66,7% of the total number of individuals. Soil Arthropods presented a positive correlation with soil moisture, vegetal cover, precipitation and real evapotranspiration. Increases in fauna richness and abundance were registered in February, a month after the beginning of the rainy season. A periodic rain events in arid and semiarid ecosystems triggers physiological responses in edafic organisms, like arthropods. Edafic arthropods respond to time variability in the Caatinga biome. This fauna variation has to be considered in studies of this ecosystem, because the variation of Arthropods composition in soil can affect the dynamics of the food web through time

A influência da variabilidade na prática da ginástica rítmica e no desenvolvimento motor a partir da perspectiva ecológica

Este estudo centra-se na influência da variabilidade na prática da Ginástica Rítmica e no desenvolvimento motor a partir da perspectiva ecológica. O Objetivo primordial desta investigação foi analisar o ensino aprendizagem e o desenvolvimento das crianças praticantes desta modalidade, comparando os métodos de ensino tradicional, onde as crianças reproduzem os gestos técnicos impostos pelas treinadora, com o ensino utilizando a variabliade sustentada pela teoria dos sistemas dinâmicos. Nesta investigação participaram 50 crianças entre 7 e 10 anos da classe de formação. A escolha foi intencional. Para este estudo utilizamos a metodologia quantitativa e qualitativa. A metodologia quantitativa foi utilizada no teste de coordenação motora KTK, no qual usamos para verificar o nível de coordenação dos grupos estudados. Conforme as análises no escalão 7- 8 pós-teste no método tradicional 69%, variabilidade 50%. No escalão 9 -10 pós-teste método tradicional 34%, variabilidade 77% de ganho no desenvolvimento motor geral. O programa Microsoft R (teste de Tukey, para tradicional 37,54 e variabilidade 45,39) e Excel 2007 foram utilizados na análise estatística dos dados. A metodologia qualitativa foi utilizada para recolher e analisar os dados obtidos através da observação da filmagem das aulas, com o objetivo de verificar a eficácia dos método aplicados. Através dos dados da avaliação qualitativa, compreendemos neste estudo que o atleta é um agente que está em contínua mudança. Através dos relatórios avaliativos e com base nas teorias investigadas, constatamos que os modelos de ensino tradicional e ecológico são divergentes na sua complexidade, que se densificam através da interação, atleta-meio, explorando diferentes affordances. Neste sentido necessitamos de novas estratégias de ensino diferenciadas a partir de um complexo ecológico, para atender as necessidades de um desporto eco-dinâmico que é a Ginástica Rítmica.

A influência da variabilidade na prática da ginástica rítmica e no desenvolvimento motor a partir da perspectiva ecológica

Este estudo centra-se na influência da variabilidade na prática da Ginástica Rítmica e no desenvolvimento motor a partir da perspectiva ecológica. O Objetivo primordial desta investigação foi analisar o ensino aprendizagem e o desenvolvimento das crianças praticantes desta modalidade, comparando os métodos de ensino tradicional, onde as crianças reproduzem os gestos técnicos impostos pelas treinadora, com o ensino utilizando a variabliade sustentada pela teoria dos sistemas dinâmicos. Nesta investigação participaram 50 crianças entre 7 e 10 anos da classe de formação. A escolha foi intencional. Para este estudo utilizamos a metodologia quantitativa e qualitativa. A metodologia quantitativa foi utilizada no teste de coordenação motora KTK, no qual usamos para verificar o nível de coordenação dos grupos estudados. Conforme as análises no escalão 7- 8 pós-teste no método tradicional 69%, variabilidade 50%. No escalão 9 -10 pós-teste método tradicional 34%, variabilidade 77% de ganho no desenvolvimento motor geral. O programa Microsoft R (teste de Tukey, para tradicional 37,54 e variabilidade 45,39) e Excel 2007 foram utilizados na análise estatística dos dados. A metodologia qualitativa foi utilizada para recolher e analisar os dados obtidos através da observação da filmagem das aulas, com o objetivo de verificar a eficácia dos método aplicados. Através dos dados da avaliação qualitativa, compreendemos neste estudo que o atleta é um agente que está em contínua mudança. Através dos relatórios avaliativos e com base nas teorias investigadas, constatamos que os modelos de ensino tradicional e ecológico são divergentes na sua complexidade, que se densificam através da interação, atleta-meio, explorando diferentes affordances. Neste sentido necessitamos de novas estratégias de ensino diferenciadas a partir de um complexo ecológico, para atender as necessidades de um desporto eco-dinâmico que é a Ginástica Rítmica.

Contribuição para o ensino da meteorologia e do clima

Numa época em que tanto se fala e escreve sobre Alterações Climáticas torna­ se pertinente elaborar um documento de apoio ao ensino que ajude os professores e alunos a explicar/perceber as complexas interacções do sistema climático. O presente trabalho tem o objectivo de contribuir para uma melhor compreensão dos aspectos físicos elementares que afectam a variabilidade climática e a forma como as diversas actividades desenvolvidas pelo Homem podem desequilibrar o sistema climático. O texto encontra-se amplamente ilustrado, facilitando a sua compreensão, e foram desenvolvidas ferramentas de cálculo em Excel que permitem utilizar as observações recolhidas nas Estações Meteorológicas Automáticas, instaladas nas escolas secundárias aderentes ao projecto PROCURA, para avaliar a difusão e dispersão de uma pluma de poluentes ou para simular o efeito de alterações na concentração de Gases com Efeito de Estufa na temperatura média à superfície. ABSTRACT: At a time when so much is said and written about Climate Changes it becomes relevant to draw up a document to support teaching, helping teachers and students to explain/understand the complex interactions of the climate system. This document aims to contribute to a better understanding of the physical elements that affect climate variability and how the various activities undertaken by humans can disrupt the climate system. The text is amply illustrated, facilitating its understanding, and calculating tools have been developed in Excel to allow the use of observations collected from Automatic Weather Stations, installed in the high schools which joined the project PROCURA, to evaluate the diffusion and dispersion of a plume of pollutants or to simulate the effect of changes in the concentration of Greenhouse Gases on the average temperature at the surface.

Population fluctuation of Empoasca sp. (Hemiptera: cicadellidae) in a physic nut crop in Mato Grosso do Sul.

2016

Soma térmica em dois anos consecutivos e de meteorologia distinta para cafeeiros plantados em Varginha - MG.

O cálculo da soma térmica ou dos graus dia acumulados (GDA) é um a maneira de correlacionar as variações da temperatura média diária com o desenvolvimento das plantas, que se dá pela sucessão de estágios fisiológicos reconhecíveis. O cálculo da soma térmica vem sendo aplicado a cafeeiros desde a década de 80, e há dois anos tem sido aplicado a cafeeiros arabica Arara, Sabiá e Siriema, plantados na Fazenda Experimental da Fundação Procafé, em Varginha com a expectativa de que contribua para caracterizar detalhadamente sua interação com as variações do clima. O objetivo deste trabalho foi comparar resultados obtidos durante o ciclo reprodutivo dos anos 2014/15 e 2015/16, para as fases de antese até formação de chumbinhos e dos chumbinhos até o grão verde.

High-throughput Analysis By Sp-ldi-ms For Fast Identification Of Adulterations In Commercial Balsamic Vinegars.

Balsamic vinegar (BV) is a typical and valuable Italian product, worldwide appreciated thanks to its characteristic flavors and potential health benefits. Several studies have been conducted to assess physicochemical and microbial compositions of BV, as well as its beneficial properties. Due to highly-disseminated claims of antioxidant, antihypertensive and antiglycemic properties, BV is a known target for frauds and adulterations. For that matter, product authentication, certifying its origin (region or country) and thus the processing conditions, is becoming a growing concern. Striving for fraud reduction as well as quality and safety assurance, reliable analytical strategies to rapidly evaluate BV quality are very interesting, also from an economical point of view. This work employs silica plate laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (SP-LDI-MS) for fast chemical profiling of commercial BV samples with protected geographical indication (PGI) and identification of its adulterated samples with low-priced vinegars, namely apple, alcohol and red/white wines.

Chromobacterium Amazonense Sp. Nov. Isolated From Water Samples From The Rio Negro, Amazon, Brazil.

The taxonomic position of a bacterium isolated from water samples from the Rio Negro, in Amazon, Brazil, was determined by using a polyphasic approach. The organism formed a distinct phyletic line in the Chromobacterium 16S rRNA gene tree and had chemotaxonomic and morphological properties consistent with its classification in this genus. It was found to be closely related to Chromobacterium vaccinii DSM 25150(T) (98.6 % 16S rRNA gene similarity) and shared 98.5 % 16S rRNA gene similarity with Chromobacterium piscinae LGM 3947(T). DNA-DNA relatedness studies showed that isolate CBMAI 310(T) belongs to distinct genomic species. The isolate was readily distinguished from the type strain of these species using a combination of phenotypic and chemotaxonomic properties. Thus, based on genotypic and phenotypic data, it is proposed that isolate CBMAI 310(T) (=DSM 26508(T)) be classified in the genus Chromobacterium as the type strain of a novel species, namely, Chromobacterium amazonense sp. nov.

Nitrogen Starvation For Lipid Accumulation In The Microalga Species Desmodesmus Sp.

Recently, to obtain lipids from microalgae has been the object of extensive research, since it is viewed as a promising feedstock for biodiesel production, especially when compared with crops such as soybean and sunflower, in terms of theoretical performance. The reduction of nutrient availability in culture media, especially nitrogen, stresses the microorganisms and affects cell growth, thus inducing lipid accumulation. This is an interesting step in biodiesel feedstock obtention from microalgae and should be better understood. In this study, four levels of nitrogen concentration in the BG-11 culture medium were evaluated in the growth of the chlorophycean microalga Desmodesmus sp. Both cell growth and lipid content were monitored over 7 days of cultivation, which yielded a final cell density of 33 × 10(6) cells mL(-1) with an initial NaNO3 concentration of 750 mg L(-1) in the medium and a maximum lipid content of 23 % with total nitrogen starvation. It was observed that the microalgae presented high lipid accumulation in the fourth day of cultivation with nitrogen starvation, although with moderate cell growth.

Um novo índice de qualidade das águas para proteção da vida aquática aplicado ao Rio Atibaia, região de Campinas/Paulínia-SP

In this paper a water quality index is developed to subsidize management actions in the Atibaia River for upon protection of aquatic organisms. This index is composed of two measurable environmental parameters normaly, ammonia and dissolved oxygen, the latter representing the contribution of organic matter. Concentrations of these two variables were normalized on a scale from 0 to 100 and translated into statements of quality (excellent, good, regular, bad and very bad). The index was applied to three monitoring points in the Atibaia River and compared to other indices used by the State of São Paulo Environmental Agency (CETESB). The results showed that the degradation in this watershed follows the urban population density. The developed index is more restricted than the other ones routinely used to infer water quality.

Amostragem e variabilidade espacial de atributos químicos do solo em área de vegetação natural em regeneração

The objectives of this work was to estimate the number of soil subsamples considering the classical statistics and geostatistics and determine the spatial variability of soil fertility attributes of an Ultisol, with clay texture, in an area of regenerating natural vegetation in Alegre - ES. Soil samples were collected in a depth of 0.0-0.2 m, at the crossing points of a regular grid, comprising a total of 64 points located at 10 m-intervals. The area presented low fertility soil. Considering a variation of 5% around the mean in the classic statistics, it is necessary a larger number of samples in relation to geostatistics. All the chemical attributes showed moderate to high spatial dependence, except for the effective cation exchange capacity (CECe), which showed pure nugget effect. The spherical semivariogram model gave the best fit to the data. Isoline maps allowed visualizing the differentiated spatial distribution of the contents of soil chemical attributes.

Levantamento fitossociológico e caráter sucessional de um trecho de floresta secundária ciliar em Juquitiba, SP, Brasil

The objective of this study was to evaluate the horizontal and vertical structures of tree community in regeneration in a fragment of a secondary riparian forest at approximately 30 years of age and to identify the most abundant species in each fragment of the forest to determine the sucessional stage. An area of 800 m² was subdivided into 16 samples of 10 x 5 m and all individuals with DBH ≥ 1 cm were sampled and identified for the following analyzes: horizontal parameters (DR, FR, DoR, IVC and IVI), vertical parameters (PSR and RNR) and mixed parameters, from of value of increased importance index (IVIa). The survey measured 689 individuals, belonging to 38 families, 74 genus and 109 species. The total density was 8,614 individuals/ha. The index of Shannon´s diversity was 3.99 and the index of Pielou´s equability was 0.85. Tibouchina pulchra, Psychotria suterella and Endlicheria paniculata obtained high values of IVIa. Guarea macrophylla, Gomidesia anacardiaefolia, Xylopia langsdorffiana and Endlicheria paniculata achieved high values of RNT, indicating adequate natural regeneration in the plot. The initial secondary and umbrophylous species showed the highest ecological importance in this fragment of the forest, with the highest values of sociologic position and importance index. Furthermore, the presence of late secondary species in all layers suggest that the studied fragment is in intermediate succession degree.