A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Perspectives of Urban Growth Management and Sustainable Development In West Bank, Hebron District as a case Study

The main objective of this PhD research study is to provide a perspective on the urban growth management and sustainable development in Palestine, and more specifically in Hebron district as a case study. Hebron is located 36 km south of Jerusalem, with an overall population size of around 600,000 people living in a total area around1246km2. Hebron is the biggest Palestinian district that has 16 municipalities and 154 localities. The research discusses and analyzes the urban planning system, economical and environmental policies and the solution required to manage and integrate the development elements to develop a sustainable development plan for Hebron. The research provides answers for fundamental questions such as what kind and definition of sustainable development are applicable to the Palestinian case?. What are the sustainability problems there and how the Israeli occupation and unstable political condition affect the sustainable development in Palestine? What are the urban growth management and sustainability policies and actions required from government, public and privets sector in Palestine? The fast urban growth in Palestine is facing many problems and challenges due to the increase in the population size and the resulting impact of this increase including, but not limited to, the demand of new houses, need for more infrastructure services, demands on new industrial, commercial, educational and health projects, which in turn reduces the area of agricultural lands and threatens the natural resources and environment. There are also other associated sustainability problems like the absence of effective plans or regulations that control urban expansion, the absence of sufficient sustainable development plans at the national levels for the district, new job requirements, Israeli restrictions and occupation for more than 60 years, existence of construction factories near residential areas, poor public awareness and poor governmental funds for service projects and development plans. The study consists of nine chapters. Chapter One includes an introduction, study objectives, problems and justifications, while Chapter Two has a theoretical background on sustainability topic and definitions of sustainability. The Palestinian urban planning laws and local government systems are discussed in Chapter Three and the methodology of research is detailed in Chapter Four. As for Chapter Five, it provides a general background on Hebron District including demographical and economical profiles, along with recommendations related to sustainable development for each profile Chapter Six addresses the urban environment, sustainability priorities and policies required. Chapter Seven discusses and analyzes infrastructure services including transportation, water and wastewater. As for Chapter Eight, it addresses the land use, housing and urban expansion beside the cultural heritage, natural heritage with relevant sustainable development polices and recommendations. Finally, Chapter Nine includes a conclusion and comprehensive recommendations integrating all of urban and sustainability event in one map. Hebron has a deep history including a rich cultural heritage aged by thousands of years, with 47% of Hebron district population under 14 years old. Being the biggest Palestinian district, Hebron has thousands of industrial and economical organizations beside a large agricultural sector at Palestine level. This gives Hebron a potential to play major roles in developing a national sustainability plan, as the current urban planning system in Palestine needs urgent reform and development to fulfill the sustainability requirement. The municipalities and ministers should find permanent financial aid for urban planning and development studies so as to face future challenges. The Palestinian government can benefit from available local human resources in development projects; hence Palestinian people have sufficient qualifications in most sectors. The Palestinian people also can invest in the privet sector in Palestine in case businessmen have been encouraged and clear investment laws and plans have been developed. The study provides recommendations associated to the sustainable development in Palestine in general and Hebron, as a case study, in specific. Recommendations include increasing the privet sector as well as the public involvement in urban growth management, and stopping unplanned urban expansion, subjecting granting building permits of new projects to the no-harm environmental impact assessment, increasing the coordination and cooperation between localities and central bodies, protection and renovation of old cites and green areas, increasing the quality and quantity of infrastructure services, establishing district urban planning department to coordinate and organize urban planning and sustainable development activities. Also, among recommendations come dividing Hebron into three planning and administrative areas (north, central and south), and dividing the sustainable development and implementation period (2010 to 2025) into three main phases. Finally, the study strongly recommends benefiting from the same urban development plans in similar districts at national and international levels, also to use new technologies and information systems in urban planning process.

Matter flows and balances in urban vegetable gardens of Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso (West Africa)

Many efforts are undertaken for sustaining urban agriculture in African cities. This study therefore investigated nutrient management practices in urban vegetable gardens of Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso (West Africa). Nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), and carbon (C) fluxes were quantified and nutrient balances calculated for three gardens representing the typical commercial gardening + field crops and livestock system (cGCL) and three gardens representing the commercial gardening + semi-commercial field crop system (cGscC). Nutrient and C balances were similarly positive in both production systems reaching annual averages of 688 kg N ha -1, 251 kg P ha-1 yr-1, 189 kg K ha-1, and 31 t C ha-1. Inputs in all gardens exceeded the amounts recommended by the extension service. Gaseous emissions of N and C represented important pathways of N and C losses. The highest emission rates occurred during the hottest periods of the day and the peaks were observed after fertilizer applications. Management recommendations should be geared towards increasing nutrient use efficiencies by better tailoring nutrient availability to crop demand and adjusted fertilization techniques to mitigate N losses.

Understanding Recreational Services of Urban Riverfront Space for Planning Purposes

In the process of urbanization, natural and semi-natural landscapes are increasingly cherished as open space and recreational resource. Urban rivers are part of this kind of resource and thus play an important role in managing urban resilience and health. Employing the example of Tianjin, this doctoral dissertation research aims at learning to understand how to plan and design for the interface zones between urban water courses and for the land areas adjacent to such water courses. This research also aims at learning how to link waterfront space with other urban space in order to make a recreational space system for the benefit of people. Five questions of this dissertation are: 1) what is the role of rivers in spatial and open space planning? 2) What are the human needs regarding outdoor open space? 3) How do river and water front spatial structures affect people's recreational activities? 4) How to define the recreational service of urban river and waterfront open space? 5) How might answering these question change planning and design of urban open space? Quantitative and qualitative empirical approaches were combined in this study for which literature review and theoretical explorations provide the basis. Empirical investigations were conducted in the city of Tianjin. The quantitative approach includes conducting 267 quantitative interviews, and the qualitative approach includes carrying out field observations and mappings. GIS served to support analysis and visualization of empirical information that was generated through this study. By responding to the five research questions, findings and lessons include the following: 1) In the course of time rivers have gained importance in all levels and scales of spatial planning and decision making. Regarding the development of ecological networks, mainly at national scale, rivers are considered significant linear elements. Regarding regional and comprehensive development, river basins and watersheds are often considered as the structural link for strategic ecological, economic, social and recreational planning. For purposes of urban planning, particularly regarding recreational services in cities, the distribution of urban open spaces often follows the structure of river systems. 2) For the purpose of classifying human recreational needs that relate to outdoor open space Maslow's hierarchy of human needs serves as theoretical basis. The classes include geographical, safety, physiological, social and aesthetic need. These classes serve as references while analyzing river and waterfront open space and other kinds of open space. 3) Regarding the question how river and waterfront spatial structures might affect people's recreational activities, eight different landscape units were identified and compared in the case study area. Considering the thermal conditions of Tianjin, one of these landscape units was identified as affording the optimal spatial arrangement which mostly meets recreational needs. The size and the shape of open space, and the plants present in an open space have been observed as being most relevant regarding recreational activities. 4) Regarding the recreational service of urban river and waterfront open space the results of this research suggest that the recreational service is felt less intensively as the distances between water 183 front and open space user’s places of residence are increasing. As a method for estimating this ‘Service Distance Effect’ the following formula may be used: Y = a*ebx. In this equation Y means the ‘Service Distance’ between homes and open space, and X means the percentage of the people who live within this service distance. Coefficient "a" represents the distance of the residential area nearest to the water front. The coefficient "b" is a comprehensive capability index that refers to the size of the available and suitable recreational area. 5) Answers found to the questions above have implications for the planning and design of urban open space. The results from the quantitative study of recreational services of waterfront open space were applied to the assessment of river-based open space systems. It is recommended that such assessments might be done employing the network analysis function available with any GIS. In addition, several practical planning and designing suggestions are made that would help remedy any insufficient base for satisfying recreational needs. The understanding of recreational need is considered helpful for the proposing planning and designing ideas and for the changing of urban landscapes. In the course of time Tianjin's urban water system has shrunk considerably. At the same time rivers and water courses have shaped Tianjin's urban structure in noticeable ways. In the process of urbanization water has become increasingly important to the citizens and their everyday recreations. Much needs to be changed in order to improve recreational opportunities and to better provide for a livable city, most importantly when considering the increasing number of old people. Suggestions made that are based on results of this study, might be implemented in Tianjin. They are 1) to promote the quality of the waterfront open space and to make all linear waterfront area accessible recreational spaces. Then, 2), it is advisable to advocate the concept of green streets and to combine green streets with river open space in order to form an everyday recreational network. And 3) any sound urban everyday recreational service made cannot rely on only urban rivers; the whole urban structure needs to be improved, including adding small open space and optimize the form of urban communities, finally producing a multi-functional urban recreational network.

Development of an ArcGIS extension to model urban climate factors

The possibility to develop automatically running models which can capture some of the most important factors driving the urban climate would be very useful for many planning aspects. With the help of these modulated climate data, the creation of the typically used “Urban Climate Maps” (UCM) will be accelerated and facilitated. This work describes the development of a special ArcGIS software extension, along with two support databases to achieve this functionality. At the present time, lacking comparability between different UCMs and imprecise planning advices going along with the significant technical problems of manually creating conventional maps are central issues. Also inflexibility and static behaviour are reducing the maps’ practicality. From experi-ence, planning processes are formed more productively, namely to implant new planning parameters directly via the existing work surface to map the impact of the data change immediately, if pos-sible. In addition to the direct climate figures, information of other planning areas (like regional characteristics / developments etc.) have to be taken into account to create the UCM as well. Taking all these requirements into consideration, an automated calculation process of urban climate impact parameters will serve to increase the creation of homogenous UCMs efficiently.

Recycling urban waste as possible use for rooftop vegetable garden

Urban authorities in Europe are confronted with increasing demands by urban dwellers for allotment gardens, but vacant urban soil tends to be scarce and/or polluted by past industrial activities. A possible solution for local authorities could therefore be to promote rooftop gardening. However little technical information exists on certain forms of rooftop urban agriculture, called Z-Farming. In 2012, a pilot experiment was run in Paris (France). Simple and cheap systems of rooftop gardening were tested on a rooftop using as crop substrates only local urban organic waste so as to contribute to the urban metabolism. Production levels and heavy metal contents in cropping substrates and edible vegetables were measured. Available results show (i) high levels of crop production with limited inputs compared to land professional gardening, (ii) low levels of heavy metal pollutants in the edible parts of the crops, especially for Cd and Pb with respect to EU norms for vegetables and (iii) positive influence on yields on organizing the substrate in layers and enhancing the biological activity through earthworm inoculation. These encouraging results allow us to consider that rooftop gardening is feasible and seem to have a great potential to improve urban resiliency. It will nevertheless be necessary to identify more precisely the types of roof that can be used and to assess more fully the generic result of the low level of pollution, as well as the global sustainability of these cropping systems.

Planning Urban Food Production into Today's Cities

If cities are to become more sustainable and resilient to change it is likely that they will have to engage with food at increasingly localised levels, in order to reduce their dependency on global systems. With 87 percent of people in developed regions estimated to be living in cities by 2050 it can be assumed that the majority of this localised production will occur in and around cities. As part of a 12 month engagement, Queen’s University Belfast designed and implemented an elevated aquaponic food system spanning the top internal floor and exterior roof space of a disused mill in Manchester, England. The experimental aquaponic system was developed to explore the possibilities and difficulties associated with integrating food production with existing buildings. This paper utilises empirical research regarding crop growth from the elevated aquaponic system and extrapolates the findings across a whole city. The resulting research enables the agricultural productive capacity of today’s cities to be estimated and a framework of implementation to be proposed.

Extracting Urban Food Potential: design-based methods for digital and bodily cartography

Sweden’s recent report on Urban Sustainable Development calls out a missing link between the urban design process and citizens. This paper investigates if engaging citizens as design agents by providing a platform for alternate participation can bridge this gap, through the transfer of spatial agency and new modes of critical cartography. To assess whether this is the case, the approaches are applied to Stockholm’s urban agriculture movement in a staged intervention. The aim of the intervention was to engage citizens in locating existing and potential places for growing food and in gathering information from these sites to inform design in urban agriculture. The design-based methodologies incorporated digital and bodily interfaces for this cartography to take place. The Urban CoMapper, a smartphone digital app, captured real-time perspectives through crowd-sourced mapping. In the bodily cartography, participant’s used their bodies to trace the site and reveal their sensorial perceptions. The data gathered from these approaches gave way to a mode of artistic research for exploring urban agriculture, along with inviting artists to be engaged in the dialogues. In sum, results showed that a combination of digital and bodily approaches was necessary for a critical cartography if we want to engage citizens holistically into the urban design process as spatial agents informing urban policy. Such methodologies formed a reflective interrogation and encouraged a new intimacy with nature, in this instance, one that can transform our urban conduct by questioning our eating habits: where we get our food from and how we eat it seasonally.

Finding Spaces for Urban Food Production – Matching Spatial and Stakeholder Analysis with Urban Agriculture Approaches in the Urban Renewal Area of Dortmund-Hörde, Germany

Using the case of an economically declined neighbourhood in the post-industrial German Ruhr Area (sometimes characterized as Germany’s “Rust Belt”), we analyse, describe and conclude how urban agriculture can be used as a catalyst to stimulate and support urban renewal and regeneration, especially from a socio-cultural perspective. Using the methodological framework of participatory action research, and linking bottom-up and top-down planning approaches, a project path was developed to include the population affected and foster individual responsibility for their district, as well as to strengthen inhabitants and stakeholder groups in a permanent collective stewardship for the individual forms of urban agriculture developed and implemented. On a more abstract level, the research carried out can be characterized as a form of action research with an intended transgression of the boundaries between research, planning, design, and implementation. We conclude that by synchronously combining those four domains with intense feedback loops, synergies for the academic knowledge on the potential performance of urban agriculture in terms of sustainable development, as well as the benefits for the case-study area and the interests of individual urban gardeners can be achieved.

Cultivating the City: Infrastructures of abundance in urban Brazil

Urban agriculture, if it is to become integrated into the city, needs landscape architectural thinking in order to be woven into the larger urban fabric. Thinking at the scale of ecosystems running through a city creates a framework for spatial change; thinking in assemblages of stakeholders and actors creates a framework for social investment and development. These overlapping frameworks are informed and perhaps even defined by the emergent field of landscape democracy. Cultivating the City is a prospective design project seeking to embody landscape democratic principles. The intention is to reclaim the meaning of landscape as the relationship between people and place, both shaping each other. The design in question is a proposed network of urban agriculture typologies in Porto Alegre, Brazil. These hypothetical designs, emphasizing agroforestry with native species, serve as a basis for dialogue between potential stakeholders and as catalysts for future projects. This landscape architecture project sets out to be a mediator in processes of spatial evolution in order to envision just and sustainable urban landscapes.