Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Mesozoic and Cenozoic motion of Adria (central Mediterranean): a review of constraints and limitations

This paper presents kinematic analysis on the motion of Adria, which is the continental mass that bridges Africa and Europe in the central Mediterranean. Palaeomagnetic data show a general coherence between the motion of Adria and Africa since the Late Paleozoic. This mutual motion, for the period from 120 Ma and the present, is verified by comparing inferred palaeolatitudes from relatively stable parts of Adria (Apulia, Gargano, Istria, and the Southern Alps) and the Hyblean Plateau, with latitudinal changes that are calculated from the motion of Africa with respect to hotspots. Additional constraints on the motion of Adria are provided from the Late Paleozoic-Early Mesozoic passive margin of Adria in the Ionian Sea. The seismic structure of the floor of the Ionian Sea resembles the structure of the oceanic crust in marginal back-arc basins, suggesting that it formed as a small ocean basin. Furthermore, the Ionian lithosphere in the Calabrian arc has been subjected to rapid rollback, which commonly occurs only when the subducting slab is made of oceanic lithosphere. This oceanic domain marks the Pennian-Triassic to Jurassic plate boundary between Adria and Africa, suggesting that a small amount of independent motion between Adria and Africa took place at that time. Since the Jurassic, Adria and Africa have shared a relatively coherent motion path. (C) 2004 Lavoisier SAS. All rights reserved.

Mapping cortical change in Alzheimer's disease, brain development, and schizophrenia

This paper describes algorithms that can identify patterns of brain structure and function associated with Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, normal aging, and abnormal brain development based on imaging data collected in large human populations. Extraordinary information can be discovered with these techniques: dynamic brain maps reveal how the brain grows in childhood, how it changes in disease, and how it responds to medication. Genetic brain maps can reveal genetic influences on brain structure, shedding light on the nature-nurture debate, and the mechanisms underlying inherited neurobehavioral disorders. Recently, we created time-lapse movies of brain structure for a variety of diseases. These identify complex, shifting patterns of brain structural deficits, revealing where, and at what rate, the path of brain deterioration in illness deviates from normal. Statistical criteria can then identify situations in which these changes are abnormally accelerated, or when medication or other interventions slow them. In this paper, we focus on describing our approaches to map structural changes in the cortex. These methods have already been used to reveal the profile of brain anomalies in studies of dementia, epilepsy, depression, childhood and adult-onset schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder, fetal alcohol syndrome, Tourette syndrome, Williams syndrome, and in methamphetamine abusers. Specifically, we describe an image analysis pipeline known as cortical pattern matching that helps compare and pool cortical data over time and across subjects. Statistics are then defined to identify brain structural differences between groups, including localized alterations in cortical thickness, gray matter density (GMD), and asymmetries in cortical organization. Subtle features, not seen in individual brain scans, often emerge when population-based brain data are averaged in this way. Illustrative examples are presented to show the profound effects of development and various diseases on the human cortex. Dynamically spreading waves of gray matter loss are tracked in dementia and schizophrenia, and these sequences are related to normally occurring changes in healthy subjects of various ages. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Inc.

INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH POLICY-MAKING A Case Study of the Brazilian Central Bank

A number of contemporary studies rightly emphasize the notion that policy outcomes result from institutional determinants. But as a growing literature on institutional development notes, these institutions are themselves impermanent. Sometimes, in crisis moments, institutions are replaced wholesale. More frequently, institutions evolve gradually over time. Using the Brazilian Central Bank as a case study, this article illustrates that the policy-making process itself can be a central driver of gradual institutional development, with institutions evolving through the accumulation of policy choices made over many years and under different policymakers in response to contemporaneous events and unforeseeable economic and political challenges.

"Futuristic medical education"

The Australian National Medical Education Colloquium provided a productive forum for medical educators to meet and to discuss and debate important contemporary issues affecting Australian medical schools. None of us know what the future will hold, and some of the possibilities discussed at the Colloquium were futuristic indeed. We would be wise to keep an open mind, to focus very much on competence and fitness to practice, and to develop a strong evidence base, as we travel this important path.

Searching behaviour and diet of Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus pairs feeding in their territories

Search path, searching behaviour and diet of pairs of Oystercatchers feeding in mudflat territories were studied during spring. females ate Nereis, Mya, small unidentified prey, probably Corophium, and a few Macoma, whereas males primarily ate Macoma. Even when female and male foraged in the same site, they often caught different prey. The combination of 'The Search-rate/Detection Model' (Gendron & Staddon 1983) and 'The Harvestable Prey Model' (Zwarts & Wanink 1993) provide the theoretical framework in which to explain these differences in diet. Macoma are thought to be more cryptic than Nereis, Mya and Corophium. Therefore females, while searching at a faster rate than their respective mates, caught far fewer cryptic prey, but a greater number of more conspicuous prey than their mates. On the basis of distances moved before and after capturing prey, males exhibited area-restricted searching for Macoma and Corophium. In contrast, females did not exhibit any area-restricted searching. it is suggested that the distribution of Macoma and Corophium available to males searching slowly was more clumped than that of these two prey species available to females searching more quickly.

Lymphatic Vessel Density and VEGF-C Expression are Significantly Different Among Benign and Malignant Thyroid Lesions

Thyroid cancer is the most frequent endocrine neoplasia worldwide. The route for metastasis and loco-regional invasion preferentially occurs by lymphatic vessels. For this reason, the assessment of lymphatic vessel density (LVD) is supposed to represent both a prognostic parameter and also a potential therapeutic target. In order to evaluate the value of LVD in benign and malignant thyroid lesions, we analyzed 110 thyroidectomy specimens using D2-40, a specific marker for lymphatic vessels and vascular endothelial growth factor C (VEGF-C), the most potent molecule of lymphatic proliferation. LVD was significantly different between papillary and follicular carcinomas in total (p = 0.045) and peritumoral area (p = 0.042). Follicular adenoma and follicular carcinoma showed an important difference of intra- (p = 0.019) and peritumoral (p = 0.033) LVD. VEGF-C was more markedly expressed in malignancies than in benignant lesions (p = 0.0001). Almost all cancers with high positive VEGF-C expression also exhibited increased peritumoral LVD (p = 0.049) when compared with the benignant lesions. Indeed, the high peritumoral LVD of malignant thyroid lesions is an important finding for surgery planning and supports the practice of total thyroidectomy in malignant thyroid neoplasm`s since the lymphatic peritumoral vessels definitely are an escape path for tumor cells.

Abuse liability of intra-nasal midazolam in inhaled-cocaine abusers

Intra-nasally instilled benzodiazepines have been proposed for acute anxiety episodes. However, routes with faster absorption may increase abuse liability. This study compared abuse liability of intra-nasal midazolam between subjects with a history of intra-nasal drug abuse and non-psychiatric subjects on a single-blind randomized controlled trial. Thirty-one inhaled-cocaine abusers and 34 normal volunteers received either 1 mg intra-nasal midazolam or active placebo. Visual analogue scales assessing desire to repeat the experience (ER) and Experience Liking (EL) assessed abuse liability. Profile analysis for repeated measures showed a significant effect of time over ER (F-[5,F-57]=3.311, p=0.011) and EL (F-[5,F-57]=3.947, p=0.004), diagnostic group (cocaine abusers scoring higher on both - F-[5,F-57]=5.229, p=0.026; F-[5,F-57]=4.946, p=0.030), regardless of the administered substance. It is concluded that the intra-nasal route does not seem to pose risks for non-psychiatric individuals, but it may represent a risk in itself for subjects with a history of drug abuse through this path. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Morphometry of saphenous nerve in young rats

The rat saphenous nerve contains only somato-sensory fibers and is used in investigations of neuropathic pain and its treatment. Due to its superficial anatomical path, the saphenous nerve is also widely used in electrophysiological studies. Nevertheless, morphologic and morphometric descriptions of the normal saphenous nerve are scanty in the literature and information on useful morphometric parameters of this nerve is still missing. Thus, the present study aimed to investigate the longitudinal and lateral symmetry of the saphenous nerve in young rats. Proximal and distal segments of the left and right saphenous nerves from female Wistar rats, aged 30 days (N = 5) were morphometrically evaluated and comparisons were made between sides and segments. Our results show that the saphenous nerve is longitudinally and laterally symmetric since there were no morphometric differences between proximal and distal segments, as well as between right and left sides. This lateral symmetry is important in order to validate those experiments in which the contralateral nerve is used as the control. Also, the longitudinal symmetry information is fundamental to further studies involving the ""dying back"" neuropathy models. The present study adds to the literature new morphometric information on the rat saphenous nerve that might be useful for a better interpretation of further studies involving this nerve and experimental models of nerve diseases. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mucopolysaccharidoses in Brazil: What happens from birth to biochemical diagnosis?

Mucopolysaccharidoses (MPS) form a group of inherited metabolic disorders characterized by intralysosomal storage of glycosaminoglycans. This study aimed to investigate the path followed by Brazilian patients from birth to diagnosis. An interview was conducted with patient`s parents or guardians with subsequent review of patient`s medical records. One hundred thirteen patients with MPS were included (MPS I: 18, MPS II: 43, MPS III: 2, MPS IIIB: 3, MPS IIIC: 1, MPS IVA: 15, MPS IVB: 1, MPS VI: 29, MPS VII: 1) from 97 families. Median age at the onset of sings/symptoms was 18 months (MPS I: 18, MPS II: 24, MPS IVA: 8, MPS IV: 8). Skeletal abnormalities (for MPS IVA and MPS VI), joint contracures (for MPS II), and typically first signs/symptoms. Several health professionals were involved in patient`s care as of the onset of symptoms until biochemical diagnosis was established. Median age at diagnosis was 76 months (MPS I: 75, MPS II: 95, MPS IVA: 75, MPS VI: 52). Considering the group as a whole, there was a 4.8-year delay between the onset of signs/symptoms and establishment of the diagnosis. Considering that specific therapies are available for some of these disorders and that early treatment is likely to change more favorably the natural history of the disease, efforts should be made to minimize this delay. We believe that this situation can be improved by measures that both increase awareness of health professionals about MPS and improve access to diagnostic tests. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Syndromic and non-syndromic aneurysms of the human ascending aorta share activation of the Smad2 pathway

Common features such as elastic fibre destruction, mucoid accumulation, and smooth muscle cell apoptosis are co-localized in aneurysms of the ascending aorta of various aetiologies. Recent experimental studies reported an activation of TGF-beta in aneurysms related to Marfan (and Loeys-Dietz) syndrome. Here we investigate TGF-beta signalling in normal and pathological human ascending aortic wall in syndromic and non-syndromic aneurysmal disease. Aneurysmal ascending aortic specimens, classified according to aetiology: syndromic MFS (n = 15, including two mutations in TGFBR2), associated with BAV (n = 15) or degenerative forms (n = 19), were examined. We show that the amounts of TGF-beta 1 protein retained within and released by aneurysmal tissue were greater than for control aortic tissue, whatever the aetiology, contrasting with an unchanged TGF-beta 1 mRNA level. The increase in stored TGF-beta 1 was associated with enhanced LTBP-I protein and mRNA levels. These dysiregulations of the extracellular ligand are associated with higher phosphorylated Smad2 and Smad2 mRNA levels in the ascending aortic wall from all types of aneurysm. This activation correlated with the degree of elastic fibre fragmentation. Surprisingly, there was no consistent association between the nuclear location of pSmad2 and extracellular TGF-beta 1 and LTBP-I staining and between their respective mRNA expressions. In parallel, decorin. was focally increased in aneurysmal media, whereas biglycan was globally decreased in aneurysmal aortas. In conclusion, this study highlights independent dysregulations of TGF-beta retention and Smad2 signalling in syndromic and non-syndromic aneurysms of the ascending aorta. Copyright (C) 2009 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prenatal LPS exposure reduces olfactory perception in neonatal and adult rats

Prenatal lipopolysaccharide (LPS) exposure causes reproductive, behavioral and neurochemical defects in both dams and pups. The present study evaluated male rats prenatally treated with LPS for behavioral and neurological effects related to the olfactory system, which is the main sensorial path in rodents. Pregnant Wistar rats received 100 mu g/kg of LPS intraperitoneally (i.p.) on gestational day (GD) 9.5, and maternal behavior was evaluated. Pups were evaluated for (1) maternal odor preference, (2) aversion to cat odor, (3) monoamine levels and turnover in the olfactory bulb (OB) and (4) protein expression (via immunoblotting) within the OB dopaminergic system and glial cells. Results showed that prenatal LPS exposure impaired maternal preference and cat odor aversion and decreased dopamine (DA) levels in the OB. This dopaminergic impairment may have been due to defects in another brain area given that protein expression of the first enzyme in the DA biosynthetic pathway was unchanged in the OB. Moreover, there was no change in the protein expression of the DA receptors. The fact that the number of astrocytes and microglia was not increased suggests that prenatal LPS did not induce neuroinflammation in the OB. Furthermore, given that maternal care was not impaired, abnormalities in the offspring were not the result of reduced maternal care. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic causes of loss of animal genetic diversity: Analysis and assessment

The number of breeds of domesticated animals, especially livestock, have declined rapidly. The proximate causes and processes involved in loss of breeds are outlined. The path-dependent effect and Swanson's dominance-effect are discussed in relation to breed selection. While these help to explain genetic erosion, they need to be supplemented to provide a further explanation of biodiversity loss. It is shown that the extension of markets and economic globalisation have contributed significantly to genetic loss of breeds. In addition, the decoupling of animal husbandry from surrounding natural environmental conditions is further eroding the stock of genetic resources, particularly industrialised intensive animal husbandry. Recent trends in animal husbandry raise very serious sustainability issues, apart from animal welfare concerns.

Human settlements: Australia state of the environment report, 2001

Australia’s transition to the 21st century has been marked by an extended period of economic prosperity unmatched for several decades, but one in which a series of question marks are being raised in three principal areas: in relation to the environment, the social well-being of the population, and the future path of economic development. The first concern, which is of primary interest in this report, relates to the physical environment of cities and their surrounding regions, and the range of pressures exerted by population and human activity. The report begins by noting the increasing divergence of the prime indicator of national economic performance—gross domestic product (GDP)—from the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI). GPI is a new experimental measure of sustainable development that accommodates factors currently unaccounted for in GDP, such as income distribution, value of household work, cost of unemployment, and various other social and environmental costs. The divergence of these two indicators in recent decades suggests that Australia’s growth has been heavily dependent on the draw-down of the nation’s stocks of capital assets (its infrastructure), its human and social capital, and its natural capital (Hamilton 1997).

Improvement of the electrolytic properties of Y2O3-based materials using a crystallographic index

Y2O3 is a c-type rare earth oxide with a fluorite-related structure. This material has been used to refractory because of its high thermal stability and excellent resistance to hydration. In this study, the effective index was suggested in order to improve the electrolytic properties of Y2O3-based oxide. (CexY1-x)(2)O3+delta (x = 0.25 and 0.3) and [LaaSrbCe0.25Y(1-a-b)](2)O3+delta (a = 0.05, 0.1 and 0.15, b = 0, 0.006 and 0.0125) were prepared as the examples with intermediate and high index, respectively. The specimens with high index value such as (La0.15Ce0.25Y0.60)(2)O-3.25 and (La0.1Sr0.0125Ce0.25Y0.6375)(2)O-3.24 consisted of two phases such as c-type and fluorite, although (Ce0.25Y0.75)(2)O-3.25 with intermediate index value had a single phase of c-type rare earth oxide. Microanalysis indicates that a grain in the (La0.1Sr0.0125Ce0.25Y0.6375)(2)O-3.23(7) sintered body consists of c-type and fluorite phases. An interface between c-type and fluorite phases is coherent in a grain. This suggests that this effective index guides the crystal structure in the specimen to fluorite and the examined composition introduces the interface between c-type and fluorite in the microstructure. The electrochemical properties of specimens including Y2O3 were characterized on the basis of the suggested index. The electrical conductivity of Y2O3-based materials increased with an increase of the index. The apparent activation energy of Y2O3-based materials decreased with increasing index. The ionic transport number of oxygen of the specimens was improved by enhancement of the index, confirming validity of the index. The oxide ionic conductive region of (La0.1Sr0.0125Ce0.25Y0.(6375))(2)O-3.23(7) with high effective index extended up to P-O2 = 10(-18) atm at 800 degreesC, although the specimens with low or intermediate index showed p- or n-type semi-conduction in the same P-O2 region at 800 and 1000 degreesC. These results suggest that the interface between c-type and fluorite phases also contributes to improve the electrolytic properties in the grain. It is concluded that the improvement of electrolytic properties in Y2O3-based materials is attributable to the microstructure with interface between two phases in a grain and the fluorite structure guided by the suggested index. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.