Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Stability of Slopes by Method of Characteristics

The method of characteristics with some simplifying assumptions is made applicable for analyzing a given straight slope. By assuming that the mobilized shear strength varies with depth, and treating the whole soil mass as a series of layers, factors of safety of a given slope at different heights and a series of lines with different mobilized shear strength are obtained. The results show that the factors of safety obtained by the present method are lower than those obtained by friction circle method.

The efficacy and potential risks of controlling sprouting in Finnish birches (Betula spp.) with the fungal decomposer Chondrostereum purpureum

Sprouting of fast-growing broad-leaved trees causes problems in young coniferous stands, under power transmission lines and along roads and railways. Public opinion and the Finnish Forest Certification System oppose the use of chemical herbicides to control sprouting, which means that most areas with problems rely on mechanical cutting. However, cutting is a poor control method for many broad-leaved species because the removal of leaders can stimulate the sprouting of side branches and cut stumps quickly re-sprout. In order to be effective, cutting must be carried out frequently but each cut increases the costs, making this control method increasingly difficult and expensive once begun. As such, alternative methods for sprout control that are both effective and environmentally sound represent a continuing challenge to managers and research biologists. Using biological control agents to prevent sprouting has been given serious consideration recently. Dutch and Canadian researchers have demonstrated the potential of the white-rot fungus Chondrostereum purpureum (Pers. ex Fr.) Pouzar as a control agent of stump sprouting in many hardwoods. These findings have focused the attention of the Finnish forestry community on the utilization of C. purpureum for biocontrol purposes. Primarily, this study sought determines the efficacy of native C. purpureum as an inhibitor of birch stump sprouting in Finland and to clarify its mode of action. Additionally, genotypic variation in Finnish C. purpureum was examined and the environmental risks posed by a biocontrol program using this fungus were assessed. Experimental results of the study demonstrated that C. purpureum clearly affects the sprouting of birch: both the frequency of living stumps and the number of living sprouts per stump were effectively reduced by the treatment. However, the treatment had no effect on the maximum height of new sprouts. There were clear differences among fungal isolates in preventing sprouting and those that possessed high oxidative activities as measured in the laboratory inhibited sprouting most efficiently in the field. The most effective treatment time during the growing season was in early and mid summer (May July). Genetic diversity in Nordic and Baltic populations of C. purpureum was found to be high at the regional scale but locally homogeneous. This natural distribution of diversity means that using local genotypes in biocontrol programs would effectively prevent the introduction of novel genes or genotypes. While a biocontrol program using local strains of C. purpureum would be environmentally neutral, pruned birches that are close to the treatment site would have a high susceptibility to infect by the fungus during the early spring.

Tropical dryland agroforestry on clay soils: : Analysis of systems based on Acacia senegal in the Blue Nile region, Sudan

Acacia senegal, the gum arabic producing tree, is the most important component in traditional dryland agroforestry systems in the Blue Nile region, Sudan. The aim of the present study was to provide new knowledge on the potential use of A. senegal in dryland agroforestry systems on clay soils, as well as information on tree/crop interaction, and on silvicultural and management tools, with consideration on system productivity, nutrient cycling and sustainability. Moreover, the aim was also to clarify the intra-specific variation in the performance of A. senegal and, specifically, the adaptation of trees of different origin to the clay soils of the Blue Nile region. In agroforestry systems established at the beginning of the study, tree and crop growth, water use, gum and crop yields, nutrient cycling and system performance were investigated for a period of four years (1999 to 2002). Trees were grown at 5 x 5 m and 10 x 10 m spacing alone or in mixture with sorghum or sesame; crops were also grown in sole culture. The symbiotic biological N2 fixation by A. senegal was estimated using the 15N natural abundance (δ15N) procedure in eight provenances collected from different environments and soil types of the gum arabic belt and grown in clay soil in the Blue Nile region. Balanites aegyptiaca (a non-legume) was used as a non-N-fixing reference tree species, so as to allow 15N-based estimates of the proportion of the nitrogen in trees derived from the atmosphere. In the planted acacia trees, measurements were made on shoot growth, water-use efficiency (as assessed by the δ13C method) and (starting from the third year) gum production. Carbon isotope ratios were obtained from the leaves and branch wood samples. The agroforestry system design caused no statistically significant variation in water use, but the variation was highly significant between years, and the highest water use occurred in the years with high rainfall. No statistically significant differences were found in sorghum or sesame yields when intercropping and sole crop systems were compared (yield averages were 1.54 and 1.54 ha-1 for sorghum and 0.36 and 0.42 t ha-1 for sesame in the intercropped and mono-crop plots, respectively). Thus, at an early stage of agroforestry system management, A. senegal had no detrimental effect on crop yield, but the pattern of resource capture by trees and crops may change as the system matures. Intercropping resulted in taller trees and larger basal and crown diameters as compared to the development of sole trees. It also resulted in a higher land equivalent ratio. When gum yields were analysed it was found that a significant positive relationship existed between the second gum picking and the total gum yield. The second gum picking seems to be a decisive factor in gum production and could be used as an indicator for the total gum yield in a particular year. In trees, the concentrations of N and P were higher in leaves and roots, whereas the levels of K were higher in stems, branches and roots. Soil organic matter, N, P and K contents were highest in the upper soil stratum. There was some indication that the P content slightly increased in the topsoil as the agroforestry plantations aged. At a stocking of 400 trees ha-1 (5 x 5 m spacing), A. senegal accumulated in the biomass a total of 18, 1.21, 7.8 and 972 kg ha-1of N, P, K and OC, respectively. Trees contributed ca. 217 and 1500 kg ha-1 of K and OC, respectively, to the top 25-cm of soil over the first four years of intercropping. Acacia provenances of clay plain origin showed considerable variation in seed weight. They also had the lowest average seed weight as compared to the sandy soil (western) provenances. At the experimental site in the clay soil region, the clay provenances were distinctly superior to the sand provenances in all traits studied but especially in basal diameter and crown width, thus reflecting their adaptation to the environment. Values of δ13C, indicating water use efficiency, were higher in the sand soil group as compared to the clay one, both in leaves and in branch wood. This suggests that the sand provenances (with an average value of -28.07 ) displayed conservative water use and high drought tolerance. Of the clay provenances, the local one (Bout) displayed a highly negative (-29.31 ) value, which indicates less conservative water use that resulted in high productivity at this particular clay-soil site. Water use thus appeared to correspond to the environmental conditions prevailing at the original locations for these provenances. Results suggest that A. senegal provenances from the clay part of the gum belt are adapted for a faster growth rate and higher biomass and gum productivity as compared to provenances from sand regions. A strong negative relationship was found between the per-tree gum yield and water use efficiency, as indicated by δ13C. The differences in water use and gum production were greater among provenance groups than within them, suggesting that selection among rather than within provenances would result in distinct genetic gain in gum yield. The relative δ15N values ( ) were higher in B. aegyptiaca than in the N2-fixing acacia provenances. The amount of Ndfa increased significantly with age in all provenances, indicating that A. senegal is a potentially efficient nitrogen fixer and has an important role in t agroforestry development. The total above-ground contribution of fixed N to foliage growth in 4-year-old A. senegal trees was highest in the Rahad sand-soil provenance (46.7 kg N ha-1) and lowest in the Mazmoom clay-soil provenance (28.7 kg N ha-1). This study represents the first use of the δ15N method for estimating the N input by A. senegal in the gum belt of Sudan. Key words: Acacia senegal, agroforestry, clay plain, δ13C, δ15N, gum arabic, nutrient cycling, Ndfa, Sorghum bicolor, Sesamum indicum

Digitoitujen väri-infrailmakuvien numeerinen monikuvatulkinta metsäninventoinnissa

The use of remote sensing imagery as auxiliary data in forest inventory is based on the correlation between features extracted from the images and the ground truth. The bidirectional reflectance and radial displacement cause variation in image features located in different segments of the image but forest characteristics remaining the same. The variation has so far been diminished by different radiometric corrections. In this study the use of sun azimuth based converted image co-ordinates was examined to supplement auxiliary data extracted from digitised aerial photographs. The method was considered as an alternative for radiometric corrections. Additionally, the usefulness of multi-image interpretation of digitised aerial photographs in regression estimation of forest characteristics was studied. The state owned study area located in Leivonmäki, Central Finland and the study material consisted of five digitised and ortho-rectified colour-infrared (CIR) aerial photographs and field measurements of 388 plots, out of which 194 were relascope (Bitterlich) plots and 194 were concentric circular plots. Both the image data and the field measurements were from the year 1999. When examining the effect of the location of the image point on pixel values and texture features of Finnish forest plots in digitised CIR photographs the clearest differences were found between front-and back-lighted image halves. Inside the image half the differences between different blocks were clearly bigger on the front-lighted half than on the back-lighted half. The strength of the phenomenon varied by forest category. The differences between pixel values extracted from different image blocks were greatest in developed and mature stands and smallest in young stands. The differences between texture features were greatest in developing stands and smallest in young and mature stands. The logarithm of timber volume per hectare and the angular transformation of the proportion of broadleaved trees of the total volume were used as dependent variables in regression models. Five different converted image co-ordinates based trend surfaces were used in models in order to diminish the effect of the bidirectional reflectance. The reference model of total volume, in which the location of the image point had been ignored, resulted in RMSE of 1,268 calculated from test material. The best of the trend surfaces was the complete third order surface, which resulted in RMSE of 1,107. The reference model of the proportion of broadleaved trees resulted in RMSE of 0,4292 and the second order trend surface was the best, resulting in RMSE of 0,4270. The trend surface method is applicable, but it has to be applied by forest category and by variable. The usefulness of multi-image interpretation of digitised aerial photographs was studied by building comparable regression models using either the front-lighted image features, back-lighted image features or both. The two-image model turned out to be slightly better than the one-image models in total volume estimation. The best one-image model resulted in RMSE of 1,098 and the two-image model resulted in RMSE of 1,090. The homologous features did not improve the models of the proportion of broadleaved trees. The overall result gives motivation for further research of multi-image interpretation. The focus may be improving regression estimation and feature selection or examination of stratification used in two-phase sampling inventory techniques. Keywords: forest inventory, digitised aerial photograph, bidirectional reflectance, converted image co­ordinates, regression estimation, multi-image interpretation, pixel value, texture, trend surface

Latitudinal and seasonal effects on growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

The growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) is understood in greater detail by quantifying the latitudinal effect. The latitudinal effect is the change in the species’ growth rate during migration. Mark–recapture data (N = 1635, latitude 22.21°S–34.00°S) presents northerly movement of the eastern king prawn, with New South Wales prawns showing substantial average movement of 140 km (standard deviation: 176 km) north. A generalized von Bertalanffy growth model framework is used to incorporate the latitudinal effect together with the canonical seasonal effect. Applying this method to eastern king prawn mark–recapture data guarantees consistent estimates for the latitudinal and seasonal effects. For M. plebejus, it was found that growth rate peaks on 25 and 29 January for males and females, respectively; is at a minimum on 27 and 31 July, respectively; and that the shape parameter, k (per year), changes by –0.0236 and –0.0556 every 1 degree of latitude south increase for males and females, respectively.

Liveweight prediction from hip height, condition score, fetal age and breed in tropical female cattle

Hip height, body condition, subcutaneous fat, eye muscle area, percentage Bos taurus, fetal age and diet digestibility data were collected at 17 372 assessments on 2181 Brahman and tropical composite (average 28% Brahman) female cattle aged between 0.5 and 7.5 years of age at five sites across Queensland. The study validated the subtraction of previously published estimates of gravid uterine weight to correct liveweight to the non-pregnant status. Hip height and liveweight were linearly related (Brahman: P<0.001, R-2 = 58%; tropical composite P<0.001, R-2 = 67%). Liveweight varied by 12-14% per body condition score (5-point scale) as cows differed from moderate condition (P<0.01). Parallel effects were also found due to subcutaneous rump fat depth and eye muscle area, which were highly correlated with each other and body condition score (r = 0.7-0.8). Liveweight differed from average by 1.65-1.66% per mm of rump fat depth and 0.71-0.76% per cm(2) of eye muscle area (P<0.01). Estimated dry matter digestibility of pasture consumed had no consistent effect in predicting liveweight and was therefore excluded from final models. A method developed to estimate full liveweight of post-weaning age female beef cattle from the other measures taken predicted liveweight to within 10 and 23% of that recorded for 65 and 95% of cases, respectively. For a 95% chance of predicted group average liveweight (body condition score used) being within 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1% of actual group average liveweight required 23, 36, 62, 137 and 521 females, respectively, if precision and accuracy of measurements matches that used in the research. Non-pregnant Bos taurus female cattle were calculated to be 10-40% heavier than Brahmans at the same hip height and body condition, indicating a substantial conformational difference. The liveweight prediction method was applied to a validation population of 83 unrelated groups of cattle weighed in extensive commercial situations on 119 days over 18 months (20 917 assessments). Liveweight prediction in the validation population exceeded average recorded liveweight for weigh groups by an average of 19 kg (similar to 6%) demonstrating the difficulty of achieving accurate and precise animal measurements under extensive commercial grazing conditions.

Real-time PCR as a surveillance tool for the detection of Trichinella infection in muscle samples from wildlife

Trichinella nematodes are the causative agent of trichinellosis, a meat-borne zoonosis acquired by consuming undercooked, infected meat. Although most human infections are sourced from the domestic environment, the majority of Trichinella parasites circulate in the natural environment in carnivorous and scavenging wildlife. Surveillance using reliable and accurate diagnostic tools to detect Trichinella parasites in wildlife hosts is necessary to evaluate the prevalence and risk of transmission from wildlife to humans. Real-time PCR assays have previously been developed for the detection of European Trichinella species in commercial pork and wild fox muscle samples. We have expanded on the use of real-time PCR in Trichinella detection by developing an improved extraction method and SYBR green assay that detects all known Trichinella species in muscle samples from a greater variety of wildlife. We simulated low-level Trichinella infections in wild pig, fox, saltwater crocodile, wild cat and a native Australian marsupial using Trichinella pseudospiralis or Trichinella papuae ethanol-fixed larvae. Trichinella-specific primers targeted a conserved region of the small subunit of the ribosomal RNA and were tested for specificity against host and other parasite genomic DNAs. The analytical sensitivity of the assay was at least 100 fg using pure genomic T. pseudospiralis DNA serially diluted in water. The diagnostic sensitivity of the assay was evaluated by spiking log of each host muscle with T. pseudospiralis or T. papuae larvae at representative infections of 1.0, 0.5 and 0.1 larvae per gram, and shown to detect larvae at the lowest infection rate. A field sample evaluation on naturally infected muscle samples of wild pigs and Tasmanian devils showed complete agreement with the EU reference artificial digestion method (k-value = 1.00). Positive amplification of mouse tissue experimentally infected with T. spiralis indicated the assay could also be used on encapsulated species in situ. This real-time PCR assay offers an alternative highly specific and sensitive diagnostic method for use in Trichinella wildlife surveillance and could be adapted to wildlife hosts of any region. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New method of calculating calorific values from elemental compositions of fossil fuels

A new method of calculating the calorific values of fossil fuels from their chemical composition has been developed, based on the concept that heats of reaction of stoichiometric fuel-oxidizer systems are rectilinearly related with the total oxidizing or reducing valancies of the mixture. The calorific value of fossil fuels has been shown to be directly related to the net reducing valencies of the fuel. The proposed method is simple and compares favourably with the other prominent methods reported in the literature.

An explicit finite element modelling method for masonry walls under out-of-plane loading

An explicit finite element modelling method is formulated using a layered shell element to examine the behaviour of masonry walls subject to out-of-plane loading. Masonry is modelled as a homogenised material with distinct directional properties that are calibrated from datasets of a “C” shaped wall tested under pressure loading applied to its web. The predictions of the layered shell model have been validated using several out-of-plane experimental datasets reported in the literature. Profound influence of support conditions, aspect ratio, pre-compression and opening to the strength and ductility of masonry walls is exhibited from the sensitivity analyses performed using the model.

Validation of a partial coherence interferometry method for estimating retinal shape

To validate a simple partial coherence interferometry (PCI) based retinal shape method, estimates of retinal shape were determined in 60 young adults using off-axis PCI, with three stages of modeling using variants of the Le Grand model eye, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Stage 1 and 2 involved a basic model eye without and with surface ray deviation, respectively and Stage 3 used model with individual ocular biometry and ray deviation at surfaces. Considering the theoretical uncertainty of MRI (12-14%), the results of the study indicate good agreement between MRI and all three stages of PCI modeling with <4% and <7% differences in retinal shapes along horizontal and vertical meridians, respectively. Stage 2 and Stage 3 gave slightly different retinal co-ordinates than Stage 1 and we recommend the intermediate Stage 2 as providing a simple and valid method of determining retinal shape from PCI data.

Multiplication of hybrid aspen (Populus tremula L. x P. tremuloides Michx.) from cuttings

The primary aim of the present study was to find an efficient and simple method of vegetative propagation for producing large numbers of hybrid aspen (Populus tremuloides L. x P. tremula Michx.) plants for forest plantations. The key objectives were to investigate the main physiological factors that affect the ability of cuttings to regenerate and to determine whether these factors could be manipulated by different growth conditions. In addition, clonal variation in traits related to propagation success was examined. According to our results, with the stem cutting method, depending on the clone, it is possible to obtain only 1−8 plants from one stock plant per year. With the root cutting method the corresponding values for two-year-old stock plants are 81−207 plants. The difference in number of cuttings between one- and two-year-old stock plants is so pronounced that it is economically feasible to grow stock plants for two years. There is no reason to use much older stock plants as a source of cuttings, as it has been observed that rooting ability diminishes as root diameter increases. Clonal variation is the most important individual factor in propagation of hybrid aspen. The fact that the efficiently sprouted clones also rooted best facilitates the selection of clones for large-scale propagation. In practice, root cuttings taken from all parts of the root system of hybrid aspen were capable of producing new shoots and roots. However, for efficient rooting it is important to use roots smaller than one centimeter in diameter. Both rooting and sprouting, as well as sprouting rate, were increased by high soil temperature; in our studies the highest temperature tested (30ºC) was the best. Light accelerated the sprouting of root cuttings, but they rooted best in dark conditions. Rooting is essential because without roots the sprouted cutting cannot survive long. For aspen the criteria for clone selection are primarily fiber qualities and growth rate, but ability to regenerate efficiently is also essential. For large-scale propagation it is very important to find clones from which many cuttings per stock plant can be obtained. In light of production costs, however, it is even more important that the regeneration ability of the produced cuttings be high.

Microclimate and gas emissions in dairy buildings : Instrumentation, theory and measurements

The aim of this thesis was to develop measurement techniques and systems for measuring air quality and to provide information about air quality conditions and the amount of gaseous emissions from semi-insulated and uninsulated dairy buildings in Finland and Estonia. Specialization and intensification in livestock farming, such as in dairy production, is usually accompanied by an increase in concentrated environmental emissions. In addition to high moisture, the presence of dust and corrosive gases, and widely varying gas concentrations in dairy buildings, Finland and Estonia experience winter temperatures reaching below -40 ºC and summer temperatures above +30 ºC. The adaptation of new technologies for long-term air quality monitoring and measurement remains relatively uncommon in dairy buildings because the construction and maintenance of accurate monitoring systems for long-term use are too expensive for the average dairy farmer to afford. Though the documentation of accurate air quality measurement systems intended mainly for research purposes have been made in the past, standardised methods and the documentation of affordable systems and simple methods for performing air quality and emissions measurements in dairy buildings are unavailable. In this study, we built three measurement systems: 1) a Stationary system with integrated affordable sensors for on-site measurements, 2) a Wireless system with affordable sensors for off-site measurements, and 3) a Mobile system consisting of expensive and accurate sensors for measuring air quality. In addition to assessing existing methods, we developed simplified methods for measuring ventilation and emission rates in dairy buildings. The three measurement systems were successfully used to measure air quality in uninsulated, semi-insulated, and fully-insulated dairy buildings between the years 2005 and 2007. When carefully calibrated, the affordable sensors in the systems gave reasonably accurate readings. The spatial air quality survey showed high variation in microclimate conditions in the dairy buildings measured. The average indoor air concentration for carbon dioxide was 950 ppm, for ammonia 5 ppm, for methane 48 ppm, for relative humidity 70%, and for inside air velocity 0.2 m/s. The average winter and summer indoor temperatures during the measurement period were -7º C and +24 ºC for the uninsulated, +3 ºC and +20 ºC for the semi-insulated and +10 ºC and +25 ºC for the fully-insulated dairy buildings. The measurement results showed that the uninsulated dairy buildings had lower indoor gas concentrations and emissions compared to fully insulated buildings. Although occasionally exceeded, the ventilation rates and average indoor air quality in the dairy buildings were largely within recommended limits. We assessed the traditional heat balance, moisture balance, carbon dioxide balance and direct airflow methods for estimating ventilation rates. The direct velocity measurement for the estimation of ventilation rate proved to be impractical for naturally ventilated buildings. Two methods were developed for estimating ventilation rates. The first method is applicable in buildings in which the ventilation can be stopped or completely closed. The second method is useful in naturally ventilated buildings with large openings and high ventilation rates where spatial gas concentrations are heterogeneously distributed. The two traditional methods (carbon dioxide and methane balances), and two newly developed methods (theoretical modelling using Fick s law and boundary layer theory, and the recirculation flux-chamber technique) were used to estimate ammonia emissions from the dairy buildings. Using the traditional carbon dioxide balance method, ammonia emissions per cow from the dairy buildings ranged from 7 g day-1 to 35 g day-1, and methane emissions per cow ranged from 96 g day-1 to 348 g day-1. The developed methods proved to be as equally accurate as the traditional methods. Variation between the mean emissions estimated with the traditional and the developed methods was less than 20%. The developed modelling procedure provided sound framework for examining the impact of production systems on ammonia emissions in dairy buildings.